Stacy,

I’ll take your Occam’s Razor and raise you one.

The theory that Murkowski is eyeballing the LP line because she wants to remain a Senator requires two major assumptions — and they’re both very unsafe assumptions.

The first assumption is that she can get the LP line. While it’s not completely impossible, she’s already been told no once. And if there really is “Ron Paul involvement,” that involvement is almost certainly of the “sent someone up there to beg them not to do it” variety (Paul is very much a GOP team player — even to the point of allowing letters begging registered Libertarian voters in California to support big-government GOP congressional incumbents instead of their LP opponents to go out over his signature in 2000).

The second assumption is that she can win if she runs on the LP line.

The only poll I’ve seen that says any such thing was a small-sample poll, for which I’ve seen no demographic crosstabs or actual question texts, commissioned by the guy behind the whole “why don’t you run on the LP line?” thing. And even if that poll is accurate, it’s only accurate for “if the election were held today.”

The election isn’t being held today. It’s being held almost two months from today. Two months is a long time in any race, and it’s e-fucking-ternity in this one.

Miller beat Murkowski — barely, but he beat her — when she was the well-funded incumbent and he was the penniless upstart. You’ve seen — hell, you’ve helped foment — what the Tea Party can do fundraisingwise when it gets riled up. Do you think the Tea Party won’t be riled up by the Wicked Witch they thought they melted rising again to run against their Dorothy?

The Democrats had written this seat off. Give them a three-way race and there won’t be enough brown paper bags in Anchorage to carry the Democratic Party cash, the union cash and the Kos cash that will flow in to get a Democratic pickup in a year sure to be remembered mostly for Democratic losses.

The only assumption required by Carl’s theory is that Murkowski wants to make bank — and that’s a pretty safe assumption of any politician on his or her way out of office.

Stacy,

I’ll take your Occam’s Razor and raise you one.

The theory that Murkowski is eyeballing the LP line because she wants to remain a Senator requires two major assumptions — and they’re both very unsafe assumptions.

The first assumption is that she can get the LP line. While it’s not completely impossible, she’s already been told no once. And if there really is “Ron Paul involvement,” that involvement is almost certainly of the “sent someone up there to beg them not to do it” variety (Paul is very much a GOP team player — even to the point of allowing letters begging registered Libertarian voters in California to support big-government GOP congressional incumbents instead of their LP opponents to go out over his signature in 2000).

The second assumption is that she can win if she runs on the LP line.

The only poll I’ve seen that says any such thing was a small-sample poll, for which I’ve seen no demographic crosstabs or actual question texts, commissioned by the guy behind the whole “why don’t you run on the LP line?” thing. And even if that poll is accurate, it’s only accurate for “if the election were held today.”

The election isn’t being held today. It’s being held almost two months from today. Two months is a long time in any race, and it’s e-fucking-ternity in this one.

Miller beat Murkowski — barely, but he beat her — when she was the well-funded incumbent and he was the penniless upstart. You’ve seen — hell, you’ve helped foment — what the Tea Party can do fundraisingwise when it gets riled up. Do you think the Tea Party won’t be riled up by the Wicked Witch they thought they melted rising again to run against their Dorothy?

The Democrats had written this seat off. Give them a three-way race and there won’t be enough brown paper bags in Anchorage to carry the Democratic Party cash, the union cash and the Kos cash that will flow in to get a Democratic pickup in a year sure to be remembered mostly for Democratic losses.

The only assumption required by Carl’s theory is that Murkowski wants to make bank — and that’s a pretty safe assumption of any politician on his or her way out of office.

And oh, by the way, pretty please with sugar on top … could you make that second link point at the post it quotes? I am a link-love slut.

I am a link-love slut.

Me, too. Thanks for pointing out the HTML error. Fixed it. I agree with your point about Democrats pouring in everything they’ve got, should Murky go third-party. But I still say Murky is clinging to power, rather than grasping for money.

Whatever she’s doing, it’s despicable.

Incumbent Republicans across the country who lose their primaries just won’t give up the ghost. They are revealing themselves for the power junkies they are and demonstrating a serious contempt for the voter that damn well should be instructive to anyone paying attention.

It sounds counterintuitive, but you are only worthy of authority, if you are willing to give it up, that’s one of the principles that Stephen Mansfield found in his book on Palin

It sounds counterintuitive, but you are only worthy of authority, if you are willing to give it up, that’s one of the principles that Stephen Mansfield found in his book on Palin

I have to agree the most sensible theory is the “I kin haz a job paying WUT?” one. Evidently the offers from lobbying firms haven’t exactly been flowing in, possibly because Murky would be waiting tables at a cheesy diner on the outskirts of Anchorage right now if her Daddy had been named Smith. And waitress wannabees aren’t exactly in short supply in DC . . .

Mama wants to get paid if she is going to shut up and go away.

But there is even less of a chance the LP will adopt her after having already passed, and the only alternative is a write-in campaign. Since the ratification of the 17th Amendment nearly a century ago, exactly ONE candidate has been elected to the US Senate on a write-in vote.

That was Strom Thurmond, elected in 1954 after beloved Senator Burnet Maybank died after winning renomination unopposed. There was no Republican Party to speak of in the deep South in those days, so whoever replaced Maybank was a shoo-in for election. Party leaders met immediately after Maybank’s funeral to nominate State House Speaker Edgar Brown to replace him.

The disrespect became an issue in the newspapers, and led to the successful Thurmond write-in campaign. Thurmond evaded accusations of party disloyalty by promising to run in an open primary at the next election, which he did.

Murky ain’t no Strom, though.

Lisa has a head like a hatchet. Lisa Hatchethead.

I think she prefers Senator Lisa.

If you are counting on the Libertarian Party to save your phony baloney government job you are seriously delusional.

If you are counting on the Libertarian Party to save your phony baloney government job you are seriously delusional.

Whatever she’s doing, it’s despicable.

It’s part of her political dynastic hertitage. Being despicable, I mean.

This is a common tactic of Tom Knapp. When he’s torn on an issue, such as this Murkowski thing, he’ll deflect to side issues, and bring up theories that really have nothing to do with the issue at hand.

Stacy’s right. This is just a clear case of a stunned United States Senator who got beat in the primary, looking for ways to salvage her career.

This is a common tactic of Tom Knapp. When he’s torn on an issue, such as this Murkowski thing, he’ll deflect to side issues, and bring up theories that really have nothing to do with the issue at hand.

Stacy’s right. This is just a clear case of a stunned United States Senator who got beat in the primary, looking for ways to salvage her career.

All I know is that it is great to have all of one’s views of unprincipled RINOs validated in real-time. Even if the MSM will spin it all away as “moderates” bucking Republican “extremists”

Eric,

What do you mean by me being “torn on an issue?”

I’m certainly not “torn” between Miller, Murkowski and Haase (or the Democrat, whose name I can’t even remember at the moment). I don’t give a damn which of them gets elected in November.

I’m also not “torn” on whether or not the Alaska LP should give Murkowski their ballot line. I think it’s a really stupid idea. I’m just not exercised over it in the same way I would be if I was still involved with the LP.

Eric,

What do you mean by me being “torn on an issue?”

I’m certainly not “torn” between Miller, Murkowski and Haase (or the Democrat, whose name I can’t even remember at the moment). I don’t give a damn which of them gets elected in November.

I’m also not “torn” on whether or not the Alaska LP should give Murkowski their ballot line. I think it’s a really stupid idea. I’m just not exercised over it in the same way I would be if I was still involved with the LP.

The practical effect of the continuing shenanigans at this point is to give the media an excuse to ignore the guy who actually won the Republican nomination.

Yes that is part of it. A part of it also is the left’s desire to defeat Palin somehow someway.

her victories just make their heads explode and make no mistake Joe Miller’s victory reflects well on Palin.