The Other McCain

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Euro-Doom Looming?

Posted on | June 25, 2011 | 30 Comments

The Standard & Poor 500 this week suffered its seventh week of losses in the past eight weeks, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average again closed below 12,000 on Friday. The problem? In a word, Europe:

“Everybody is trying to digest how the European debt situation is going to shake out,” said Jason Pride, director of investment strategy at Glenmede in Philadelphia, which manages about $20 billion. “They’re playing an expensive game of chicken with Greece because the downside of not passing a bailout for that country is effectively a financial system meltdown.” . . .

The outlook in Greece? Not so good:

A knife-edge vote in the Greek parliament on a new package of [spending] cuts is expected on Wednesday, with [socialist prime minister George] Papandreou desperately needing to convince his reluctant backbench MPs to approve the measures.
If Greece refuses to accept more austerity measures, the consequences for Greece, the EU and indeed the global economy could be dire.

“The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people’s money,” Margaret Thatcher once observed, and for Greece, “eventually” is now.

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Comments

  • http://twitter.com/omega_six omega_six

    I can’t believe they are STILL rioting in Greece. What does it take for people to know when enough is enough…

  • OldGrizzlyMama

    And a reader in a limey newspaper commented that this is a failure of capitalism.  Socialists aren’t very bright.

  • http://thepagantemple.blogspot.com/ ThePaganTemple

    “A failure of capitalism” is the current socialist meme. You hear it and see it all the time. It might be easy to believe if you could find a country that actually practiced free-market capitalism, but you’d need a time machine for that. They like to say that capitalism is a system of booms and busts and that doesn’t exist in socialism. Which I guess that’s right, you’d have to have a boom before you could have the resultant temporary bust. It’s hard to measure a boom or bust when you’re living under a steady and on-going depression.

  • Anonymous

    Ah, but they do have a bust, a big one at the end.
    The Greeks seem to think that if their government would just go ahead and stiff the North European bankers everything would be OK. And in one sense they know more than their masters. Sooner or later Greece defaults, the longer the EU tries to prop it up the more painful that default will be.

  • Djcpoland

    Ignorance should not be an excuse for this post. First of all, most of Europe is doing a good deal better than we are, particularly Germany. That is because they know a strong safety net ameliorates both good times and bad times. In bad times, it provides an automatic stimulus because safety net money is always spent and goes right back into the economy. The argument is between  the UK and Germany. UKers love to vacation in Greece, and if Greece is allowed to default and goes back to its own currency, that will suddenly become very cheap. (They forget how much of their own tourism will go to Greece instead in that case.) The richer countries of Europe will also have a new source of cheap nearby imports, now that Eastern Europe is on the upswing and not so cheap anymore. (They forget again how much of their own business will go to Greece if that happens.)  They think they need this since it appears it will be a while before Turkey joins the EU. The UK needs all this more than the others because it is the most capitalist and having the most problems. Who’s having  the least, besides Germany? Those very socialist Scandanavian countries. Oops. There goes your argument. Will you actually allow this through?

  • http://thepagantemple.blogspot.com/ ThePaganTemple

    Also isn’t Obama talking about bailing them out? Kind of funny how the Europeans always talk like they’re so superior to the US, yet who has bailed out whom twice now? I say let the suckers fall flat on their asses. The fact that most of us have a European heritage shouldn’t influence us. Our forefathers left that hellhole for a reason.

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  • MrPaulRevere

    You talk a lot, but don’t say too much.

  • http://thepagantemple.blogspot.com/ ThePaganTemple

    Wait a minute. You say they want Greece to default and go back to its own currency because they can get cheap imports and vacation there cheaper. Yet, they need this because Turkey hasn’t joined the EU yet? So they want Turkey to join because of cheap imports and vacations, but they want Greece to default and go back to their own currency for the same reasons? Sweden and Norway aren’t socialist countries in the sense that they have a Marxist economy, they have some degree of private property rights and venture capital and business investment. They probably also have a great deal of government subsidies of business to make business investment more palatable,, and profitable. They also have socialist social policies with a sky-high tax rate. Enjoy the ride while it lasts, because when it comes crashing down its going to be painful.

  • Anonymous

    I don’t think our new found friend comprendes broke. If one doesn’t have enough money to pay the bills it doesn’t matter what currency your broke in.
    I wonder what the exchange rate between drachmas and euros would be right after a Greek default.

  • Anonymous

    We supply bailout money via the IMF who apparently just tell us how much our share is and we pay it. I do not recall hearing much about congress debating these sums and I wonder if these transactions are done directly from Treasury to IMF, bypassing congress. While no one can prove it I’ve no doubt the Fed has financed various bailouts to European central and private banks on the QT.

  • Mietopol

    The outlook for Greece : bankruptcy now or bankruptcy later there is no other way. Lets stop pouring money into the drain. Stop senseless bailouts. They dont work.

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/EU5DQWQTTHTPO4A4ZYSL3AAV2U Adjoran

    Germany only yielded under pressure to grant this deal to Greece because of the heavy losses German banks would suffer on a default.  All the major European banks are at risk here, or we wouldn’t be talking bailout at all.

    As we can see, the Greeks (who incidentally haven’t practiced anything close to capitalism in the last half-century or so) are rioting AGAINST the deal which will save them from default, because austerity means fewer government benefits and more taxes.  It cannot end well.

    And if you like Greece’s financial position, you’re gonna LOVE Spain’s, because they heavily “invested” in this “green technology” Obama loves so much, and are closing in on the day the bills come due, too.  Portugal and Italy are right behind, and Ireland is teetering on joining the party.

    There’s a certain degree of schadenfreude here, since those who pushed so hard for Euro=peon Union are getting what they asked for, good and hard, but the global fallout will hurt us all.

    Nations and multinational banks would do well to heed my late father’s advice to me on finance:  never borrow money you aren’t absolutely sure you can repay even if things go badly, and never lend money without security worth more than the loan amount.

  • http://thepagantemple.blogspot.com/ ThePaganTemple

    As far as I’m concerned the fucksticks owe us big time, and if I had my way about it, we’d take what we need from them by force. As you can tell, I hold no maudlin sentimentality over our European “cousins”.

  • http://thepagantemple.blogspot.com/ ThePaganTemple

    Maybe soon it will be like the good old days when the European economy was in such a shambles you could buy more with a Hershey bar or a pair of nylons IYKWIMAITYD

  • http://twitter.com/Trochilus Trochilus

    The governmental finance problem in Greece is very simple.  No one there pays their taxes.  The general social outlook is quite simply incompatible with the idea of a socialist government.  And so the expectation is that somehow, someone will bail them out.

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  • http://www.leftbankofthecharles.com Charles

    Great business model: loan money to one country and expect other countries to pay the money back so that the “system” doesn’t collapse.

  • http://2011.ak4mc.us/ McGehee

    They ain’t bright, but more to the point (as Hank Hill might say) they ain’t right.

  • http://2011.ak4mc.us/ McGehee

    Remember, that was their justification for all the big government schemes under FDR, so of course they’re going to blame capitalism for what’s gone wrong — just like Obama insists on blaming Bush for everything, including when the ash falls off the end of one of his cigarettes.

  • http://2011.ak4mc.us/ McGehee

    I’ve been of the opinion Europe would turn out to be the anchor dragging the world down, and I think adopting the euro will prove to have been the catalyst for their failure.

  • Anonymous

    The longer this process continues the more Greek debt is owned by central banks who are steadily buying Greek dept from private institutions.

  • http://thecampofthesaints.org Bob Belvedere

    That’s TPT: always looking on the bright side.

  • http://thecampofthesaints.org Bob Belvedere

    Perhaps we’re heading towards a European-wide Weimar situation.  We know what followed that.  If this stands a chance of happening, it is even more imperative that we gain control here in America so we can be ready to fight it.

  • Anonymous

    Well, first you would have to argue by something other than assertion.

    Second, what did the Europeans not do? That would be the Obama method of spending a couple trillion we don’t have.

    Third, the European countries have a 10% plus structural unemployment rate. Including the Scandis.

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/EU5DQWQTTHTPO4A4ZYSL3AAV2U Adjoran

    I was thinking today:  what if we hadn’t spent the second half of the TARP money on auto unions, hadn’t spent the stimulus money, and hadn’t debased our currency with all this inflating, I mean “quantitative easing”?

    We would likely be enjoying the benefits of a strong dollar instead of suffering with a weakened one.

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