The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

Ouch! New Poll Shows Perry at 7% in Iowa

Posted on | October 30, 2011 | 22 Comments

The headline on the Des Moines Register story is “Herman Cain, Mitt Romney lead new Iowa Poll,” but when you break down the numbers, the really shocking result is farther down:

Herman Cain …………………. 23%
Mitt Romney ………………….. 22%
Ron Paul ……………………….. 13%
Michele Bachmann ………….. 8%
Rick Perry ………………… 7%
Newt Gingrich …………………. 7%
Rick Santorum …………………. 5%
Jon Huntsman …………………. 1%

Perry tied for fifth place? This poll was taken Oct. 23-26 (Sunday through Wednesday), entirely after the Oct. 18 Vegas debate, during a period when the media were heavily reporting Perry’s new tax plan and …

Fifth place? Single digits? Wedged between Bachmann and Santorum?

Perry put $174,000 into a TV ad campaign that started Tuesday in Iowa. As far as I know, Perry is the only candidate now running TV ads in Iowa, so he’s likely to see his numbers rise between now and mid-November. We’re still 65 days from the Iowa caucuses, but Perry’s got a lot of ground to make up if he’s going to avoid an embarrassment.

And the really scary thing: Romney wasn’t supposed to be a player in Iowa, and yet he’s neck-and-neck for the lead. Romney is almost certain to win New Hampshire. If he also wins Iowa . . . dude, game over.


  • Anonymous

    Cain, can. Cain, can. Cain, can.

  • smitty

    Romney will give the concession speech. It has been decided by The Powers That Be. We the peeps have our work cut out for us to alter this predestination.

  • Anonymous

    Are Iowa polls that accurate? How do pollsters filter for likely caucus voters or do they even try? Santorum and Bachman are both following conventional path to winning the Iowa caucus. Are they both living in a fools paradise? Romney could be benefiting from supporters he gained in the 08 cycle even though he’s put little effort in Iowa until recently.
    I view the polls in Iowa with a great deal of suspicion. 

  • Sissy Willis

    #WeThePeeps, Twitter hashtag of the election season! 🙂

  • Anonymous

    I view the polls in Iowa with a great deal of suspicion.  

    Indeed, the trudge-through-the-snow factor is a hard thing to calculate. Well-organized high-intensity campaigns over-perform. And you always have to put an asterisk in front of early polls. Two months is a political lifetime under present circumstances.

    But for Perry to be at 7% … dude.

  • ThePaganTemple

    Still got two months to go, a lot can change in that time. I won’t say Romney’s got it sewed up until he wins South Carolina and/or Florida. He’s probably got Nevada in the bag. And then there’s Michigan. If it gets down to a two person race after Florida, then whoever that second person is has a damn good chance, depending on who that second person is. But it will have to start thinning out pretty quick, and the sooner it gets down to two people the better. Maybe Cain will pull an upset in New Hampshire. Like I said, he’s got two months.

  • McGehee

    The way they’re front-loading primaries again this cycle Ron Paul actually stands a chance of getting my vote in March.

    I’d rather that didn’t happen…

  • Anonymous

    Admittedly 7% percent is remarkably low particularly with Romney coming in basically tied with Cain. Romney’s number is one of the reasons I’m more than usually suspicious of this poll. Santorum’s low rating is another. The conventional wisdom may well be incorrect as to how one must campaign to win in Iowa but unless they’re sending one of the kids to go fetch the shotgun every time Santorum knocks on some one’s door and he just can’t take a hint, I’m eyeing his low number with extreme skepticism. This poll looks suspiciously similar to the national polls.

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  • Joe

    Wow I thought everything was Bush’s fault…but now it is Cain’s fault!


    Perry’s the only one who said Ethanol is a disastrous boondoggle.
    Of course he’s going to fail in Iowa.
    Everyone else is saying what they need to to get by…kind of like liberals.

  • Anonymous

    But ORomney is better than Obama! Anything with an R! especially since we know the voters won’t fall for “bi-partisan” just because it’s a position most Republicans don’t support and Democrats do!

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  • Finrod Felagund

    Caucuses are notoriously difficult to poll; if Cain is the second choice of as many people as I’ve been hearing he is, he’ll outperform his polling numbers in the actual caucus, since from my understanding of how the caucus works, if your candidate doesn’t have enough other supporters at your location, you have to choose again from the candidates that do have enough supporters.

  • Finrod Felagund

     And “writing” like that is why I’m more of a commenter than a blogger.

  • ThePaganTemple

    The question is will Cain be one of the ones with a lot of supporters who make it to the caucuses, or will he be one of the ones with very few. That’s the question these polls can’t even begin to answer.

  • Adjoran

    Perry’s 7% isn’t so shocking considering the history.  They built him up, Buttercup, just to let him down.  He was hyped and advertised as something he is not and is paying the price for that deception – which may not have been his, personally, but his campaign, supporters, and desperate conservatives wanting to believe that Zombie Reagan might walk among us and eat the living brains of Obama and Biden sure pumped up the expectations.

    If not for that, his tough-but-compassionate-evangelical campaign might have attracted the bulk of the Huck Club from ’08.  But the Church Lady doesn’t like little boys who tell fibs.

    Somebody does need to step up and take some of Romney’s support in Iowa, though, if it is to be a real contest.

  • Anonymous

    So we’re at the point where just two early(iest) primary wins determines the representative for the GOP in a field pretty much as wide open as we’ve ever had?

    Houston, we have a problem. If this isn’t the sign that the primary system needs an overhaul or the sign of apocalypse, then I’ve gone blind.

  • Info

    Iowa:  A state with caucauses (cauci?) where organization really helps (someone who has been running for prez for twelve years has organization if nothing else)

    New Hampshire:  Romney’s backyard, filled with Mass. evacuees who hate the taxes but still haven’t figure out that the liberal policies necessarily result in the high taxes.

    How does Romney winning these two states sew up the nomination for him???
    (Are you being sarcastic again, and I missed it … ?)

  • Anonymous

    Yeah, but he has all seven of them.  Solid.  Prime. And listed as ahead of Newt.

    In Omabanomics “recovery” math, he’s practically leading the pack!

  • Anonymous

    Blame it on the butterfly ballot.

  • Anonymous

    Well, as I recall from C-Pac, Romney does give a great concession speech.