Bizarre Statistical Improbabilities

Posted on | November 10, 2012 | 58 Comments

What are the odds that two players in the same hand of Texas Hold ‘Em will both have outstanding hands — four of a kind or a straight flush? The odds against this are high enough that casinos offer so-called “Bad Beat” jackpots to be paid out in such rare instances. If there were such a jackpot for against-all-odds election results, Dan Collins says the house should be paying it out this year:

St. Lucie County in Florida had a 141% turnout on election night. President Obama also managed to win 99% of the votes, according to the numbers, in various districts in Broward County.
The sheer number of voters shocked the Supervisor of Elections there, though in this piece she’s not asked to comment on the amazingly lopsided voting percentages in some of the districts. It’s really quite impossible that any candidate, much less one with approval numbers the likes of those enjoyed by Obama, should prevail so hyperwhelmingly. I expect that Nate Silver won’t be calculating the likelihoods, but if there were statisticians willing to address the matter, I think we would find that the numbers are far outside the realm of reasonable probability.
The infinitessimal statistical probabilities materialized in Broward County, FL, were not limited to that county. In polling locations in Philadelphia where Republican observers were thrown out, Mr. Obama received once again over 99% of the votes cast. In Cleveland, he received 99.8% of the votes in 44 districts, and he benefitted from 108% turnout from eligible voters in one county in Ohio.
It takes a special kind of person not to see how such amazing, astounding, mind-bending statistical anomalies could crop up in so many precincts all in one election.

Read the whole thing. This isn’t a conspiracy theory so much as it is a recognition of the Democrat Party’s tradition of vote fraud. Two of their most important constituencies are tombstones and vacant lots.

Category: Election 2012

Comments

58 Responses to “Bizarre Statistical Improbabilities”

Taxpayers1234
November 10th, 2012 @ 12:36 pm

THIS. RT @smitty_one_each TOM Bizarre Statistical Improbabilities http://t.co/1d4dU2Wp
smitty
November 10th, 2012 @ 12:38 pm

Have you noticed the sort of Calvinist fatalism with which the Holy State treats elections?
annelongsmith
November 10th, 2012 @ 12:40 pm

RT @smitty_one_each: TOM Bizarre Statistical Improbabilities http://t.co/Cg8X7xdI #TCOT
blasater
November 10th, 2012 @ 12:41 pm

This must be challenged and Romeny should unconcede until the REAL vote count can be verified.
Helen85
November 10th, 2012 @ 12:47 pm

This Reformed Presby Calvinist is a Truth DEMANDER, not believing the msm that has been incessantly lying to us for 4 years in almost every case.My Romanian friend grew up this way & I used to feel so sorry for her..she’s back where she came from now, an American citizen..at least she can discern the lies. We aren’t used to this. And Hannity saying…maybe we need amnesty? Gimme’ a break…
G.Patrick Donahue
November 10th, 2012 @ 12:54 pm

It’s an Obamiracle!
Matthew W
November 10th, 2012 @ 12:55 pm

There is the possibility that the Democrats commited vote fraud and stole elections??
SO WHAT !!!!
RINOs don’t have the testicles to challenge it.
Elilla Shadowheart
November 10th, 2012 @ 12:59 pm

The Big O: I command you dead! Rise up, Rise up for the holy one! Vote for your new messiah!
Paula
November 10th, 2012 @ 1:07 pm

Thank you Stacy McCain for writing about this. Awesome!

I don’t see it as conspiracy theory as these are hard facts. I saw many tweets coming in Election day saying: they tried to vote and someone had already voted in their name, poll workers complaining about screen shifting from Romney to Obama on voting machines etc.( I have saved as many reports as I can.)

WHY IS GOP IGNORING THIS? I DON’T UNDERSTAND…ARE WE GOING TO GET PC ON VOTER SUPPRESSION AND FRAUD? iT’S NOT RACIST TO WANT A FAIR AND FREE ELECTION. sorry for yelling but this is bs.

The reasons I want to make it an issue is: 1) the media is spinning the demographic results by these fraudulant results 2) Democrats are always crying voter suppression, it’s time to expose theirs. 3) As Americans we should be allowed fair & free elections 4) and this is the main one–> Something should be done about this problem before the 2014 elections. We need to get rid of these antiquated, Soros affiliated voting machines.
rosalie
November 10th, 2012 @ 1:36 pm

Why do we keep ignoring this? We’re not called the party of stupid for nothing. We earned it.
Voter Fraud: How We Fight It | Nathan Martin
November 10th, 2012 @ 1:56 pm

[…] The Other McCain talks about these statistical improbabilities. (Note: You can’t spell statistical without statist) […]
Thane_Eichenauer
November 10th, 2012 @ 1:58 pm

I wonder if Ohio Secretary of State Ron Hulstead (Republican) will look into these unusual results?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jon_Husted

I give the odds of that happening to be about as likely as the Federal Reserve being audited.
dmandmand
November 10th, 2012 @ 2:07 pm

Here is the problem. The decision making people in the GOP have no spine. As long as they will roll over and play dead to get cocktail party initiations this will continue. Col. West had a spine and lo and be-hold the recount showed he won. If the GOP officials simply made it clear that the would force full criminal prosecution and max sentences for voter fraud we have Pres elect Romney and not the Pretender.
K-Bob
November 10th, 2012 @ 2:35 pm

Welcome to the United States of Chicago
K-Bob
November 10th, 2012 @ 2:36 pm

Update on Allen West over at The Shark Tank.
alwaysfiredup
November 10th, 2012 @ 2:37 pm

Relax guys. There are more cards because there were so many races/questions that the ballot covered 2 pages. Some voters cast both sheets and some only cast one. http://shark-tank.net/2012/11/10/where-the-allen-west-vote-count-really-stands/
lolvincitomnia
November 10th, 2012 @ 2:43 pm

Amazing isn’t it that the Florida GOP and the RNC aren’t backing up Allen West, just like they didn’t do a damned thing about the obvious electoral fraud in the swing states. They’re complicit and we need to replace the RNC and reclaim the GOP, it’s our party it doesn’t belong to the inside the beltway pigs.
lolvincitomnia
November 10th, 2012 @ 2:45 pm

The RNC want either open borders globalists Rubio or Jeb Bush, they seek to serve the same masters Obama does. We need to disavow the RNC leadership and throw our weight behind a republican leadership committed to the constitution and the citizenry.
Bob Belvedere
November 10th, 2012 @ 2:49 pm

He won’t.
I’ve been warning people for four Goddamn years [since I began blogging] that Willard Mitt Romney is a wimp, but so many didn’t listen. I live in New England and have followed him since the mid-1990’s when he ran against Teddy Kennedy. He always, in the end, wimps out…but he sure made a gracious concession speech [as Stacy predicted], eh?
Bob Belvedere
November 10th, 2012 @ 2:51 pm

THIS.

‘Why upset things!’, they would say, ‘We’ll do just fine as long as we preserve things as they are’.
Bob Belvedere
November 10th, 2012 @ 2:55 pm

I think this behavior on our part [I’m speaking of conservative, not the GOP Establishment – they have other reasons (none noble)] is due to our belief that, in America, such ruthless and thuggish things don’t happen in Presidential races.

We have to wake-up and realize that the foe we face, the Left, is not American in it’s thinking at all. It is profoundly anti-American and will do anything, commit any crime, to achieve it’s ends.
Bob Belvedere
November 10th, 2012 @ 2:59 pm

The Florida GOP are the ones who redrew the District lines in order to Gerrymander Rep. West out of office.
Evi L. Bloggerlady
November 10th, 2012 @ 3:18 pm

They did not have the poll watchers in place to stop it. They did not have lawyers ready to file injunctions and seek court orders.
ORCA was flounding on the beach on election day and 30,000 volunteers were floundering too. http://evilbloggerlady.blogspot.com/2012/11/project-orca-necropsy.html
It was a cluster fuck of incompetency.

The GOP is a worthless party of fools. It is time to rethink this because the Dems are going to steam roll us if we do not.
jsn2
November 10th, 2012 @ 3:44 pm

Vote fraud was basically given a green light by the DOJ voting rights division. The dems know there will be no official investigation and the media will ignore.

Scroll through all the vote fraud articles by J. Christian Adams
to see the joke Eric Holder is – http://pjmedia.com/blog/author/jchristianadams/
jsn2
November 10th, 2012 @ 3:45 pm

When the DOJ encourages vote fraud for their team we have a problem
Paula
November 10th, 2012 @ 3:56 pm

Yes they did! A lot of FreedomWorks & TeaParty people were poll watchers. There were tweets all day long about election day craziness from poll watchers. Some were kicked out by Obma ppl and many were reporting the problems voters were having all day. Voters came in to vote and were told someone had already voted in their name. Some were having problems with the screen changing from Romney to Obama when they voted. Here’s one example of a tweet –>”I’m an OH poll worker,saw voting machine flip votes 2Obama Tues.Reported it to BOE& shut machines down.” (I have others) They wondered how many people voted in the faulty machines before they discovered this problem.
No one in the GOP seems to want to do anything about it.
Now the media is using these fraudulant results to report demographic numbesr of Reps, blacks, Cubans etc that voted for Obama.
Problem is, GOP is allowing the media to set the dialog about the Election and they look like wimps.
Grrrr. When will this madness end? IMHO I wish the GOP would speak up and set the facts straight, quit letting MSM set the narrative. It’s as though they’re afraid to.
Paula
November 10th, 2012 @ 3:57 pm

LOL
Paula
November 10th, 2012 @ 3:58 pm

Amen to that!
HMSLion
November 10th, 2012 @ 4:02 pm

Challenge, nothing. Election fraud is like war crimes. They don’t stop because you protested. They stop because you made reprisals in kind.
Matthew W
November 10th, 2012 @ 5:09 pm

” the Dems are going to steam roll us if we do not.”

Too late, we get rolled everyday
lolvincitomnia
November 10th, 2012 @ 5:10 pm

The 2 pages are all on 1 card.
Matthew W
November 10th, 2012 @ 5:10 pm

It has been known since 2008 that the NObama team was taking illegal campaign money.

NOT A FRIGGIN’ PEEP !!
Matthew W
November 10th, 2012 @ 5:12 pm

Nothing says mission accomplished like a gracious concession speech !!
Rich Vail
November 10th, 2012 @ 5:22 pm

Why do you think Democrats fight voter ID laws so vociferously? They know that if the playing field is even, there’s a seriously large chance that voter fraud will no longer win them electoins.
Lackto Ringwald
November 10th, 2012 @ 5:44 pm

Why didn’t Romney and the GOP anticipate this? It was rampant in at least 6 states. They knew the 6 or more states they needed and made sure to get the Senate seats. Not a word from the media – who were calling races early. Not a word from talk radio.

ABC/Disney tormenting conservatives with hope Romney had a chance when they knew it was fixed.

Mitt’s people fooling around with a stuxnet GOTV app that did not work. You have to go back to paper votes at precincts with the national guard. If it takes a week to vote then do it. This was a total fraud.
rosalie
November 10th, 2012 @ 5:58 pm

Exactly. How about “they bring a knife, we’ll bring a gun” philosphy?
rosalie
November 10th, 2012 @ 6:01 pm

I don’t know a darn thing and I antipated it. Republican inspectors were thrown out of the precincts in Philly in 2008. Did we learn? Heck no! They were thrown out of the Philly precincts 2012.
rosalie
November 10th, 2012 @ 6:02 pm

So why don’t the Republicans fight harder for voter ID?
Brian D Paasch
November 10th, 2012 @ 7:03 pm

Waiting for the GOP to give a rip….

4
3
2
1

(crickets)
Brian D Paasch
November 10th, 2012 @ 7:05 pm

Because they are quite happy with the status quo.
No Wonder Democrat Turnout Was So High | The Rio Norte Line
November 10th, 2012 @ 7:12 pm

[…] Stacy McCain notes the bizarre statistical probabilities. […]
pa
November 10th, 2012 @ 7:26 pm

Can you provide a link for this? Twitchy and other sites are debunking the 141% vote by explaining the two-cards-but-one-vote misunderstanding.

I have my doubts, and I believe there was massive voter fraud all over the US that accounts for the surprising number of Republican losses by small margins, despite predicted wins.

I would like more information about your explanation, please. I BELIEVE you, but I have to admit that it’s because I WANT to believe you. I have not seen anyone else present the information you have given here, so please help refute the deniers by providing solid evidence to support your explanation.
HealthyAmerican
November 10th, 2012 @ 7:34 pm

And once again…nothing will be done about it.
Beeblebrocs
November 10th, 2012 @ 10:30 pm

It’s obvious as the day is long that Romney lost because of fraud on a massive scale. How do we know this? Because had Romney gotten just a few more votes than McCain did in ’08, he would have won. This begs the question, how does the 2008 GOP nominee, who no one could stand and was universally detested by conservatives, get more votes than the much more conservative, well spoken, well funded, well Veeped, great debater, 2012 GOP nominee?

Answer: obviously Romney must have gotten more votes. All indicators point to this.

No incumbent POTUS gets reelected with unemployment above 7.2%. They don’t get reelected when they poll below 50%. And on and on. But we are to believe that we all just loved McCain over Romney by an extra 2 million votes?

That didn’t happen. Romney got more votes than Obama. Where are they now?
Finrod Felagund
November 11th, 2012 @ 2:12 am

Precisely! We need to be raising hell about this and use it to flip Florida. Not because it will change the outcome of the election at all, but so every time Democrats pooh-pooh Republicans talking about voter fraud, we can say “Florida 2012: voter fraud flipped a state. What if 2012 was 2000-close?”
rosalie
November 11th, 2012 @ 9:19 am

The Establishmnet are absolutely the same as the Dems.
Mike Rogers
November 11th, 2012 @ 10:51 am

Don’t transmit these figures to Vladimir, he would be jealous. These kinds of margins are the stuff you expect from a banana republic, or Russia. Oh, well, pass the bananas…
Pointing out the obvious: we don't have to sit around and take it » Da Tech Guy's Blog
November 11th, 2012 @ 10:51 am

[…] Roxeanne De Luca | November 11th, 2012 Stacy McCain has a great post up about the “bizarre statistical improbabilities” of Obama winning over 99% of the vote in some districts that also have over 100% […]
Mike Rogers
November 11th, 2012 @ 10:55 am

St Lucie looks highly confusing: was it 70% turnout or 141%? The other cases look, walk, and quack, like fraud.
Suspicious numbers of same day registrations in NH, too…… Investigating.
Bob Belvedere
November 11th, 2012 @ 5:48 pm

Haw.