The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

Bizarre Statistical Improbabilities

Posted on | November 10, 2012 | 58 Comments

What are the odds that two players in the same hand of Texas Hold ‘Em will both have outstanding hands — four of a kind or a straight flush? The odds against this are high enough that casinos offer so-called “Bad Beat” jackpots to be paid out in such rare instances. If there were such a jackpot for against-all-odds election results, Dan Collins says the house should be paying it out this year:

St. Lucie County in Florida had a 141% turnout on election night. President Obama also managed to win 99% of the votes, according to the numbers, in various districts in Broward County.
The sheer number of voters shocked the Supervisor of Elections there, though in this piece she’s not asked to comment on the amazingly lopsided voting percentages in some of the districts. It’s really quite impossible that any candidate, much less one with approval numbers the likes of those enjoyed by Obama, should prevail so hyperwhelmingly. I expect that Nate Silver won’t be calculating the likelihoods, but if there were statisticians willing to address the matter, I think we would find that the numbers are far outside the realm of reasonable probability.
The infinitessimal statistical probabilities materialized in Broward County, FL, were not limited to that county. In polling locations in Philadelphia where Republican observers were thrown out, Mr. Obama received once again over 99% of the votes cast. In Cleveland, he received 99.8% of the votes in 44 districts, and he benefitted from 108% turnout from eligible voters in one county in Ohio.
It takes a special kind of person not to see how such amazing, astounding, mind-bending statistical anomalies could crop up in so many precincts all in one election.

Read the whole thing. This isn’t a conspiracy theory so much as it is a recognition of the Democrat Party’s tradition of vote fraud. Two of their most important constituencies are tombstones and vacant lots.



  • smitty

    Have you noticed the sort of Calvinist fatalism with which the Holy State treats elections?

  • blasater

    This must be challenged and Romeny should unconcede until the REAL vote count can be verified.

  • Helen85

    This Reformed Presby Calvinist is a Truth DEMANDER, not believing the msm that has been incessantly lying to us for 4 years in almost every case.My Romanian friend grew up this way & I used to feel so sorry for her..she’s back where she came from now, an American least she can discern the lies. We aren’t used to this. And Hannity saying…maybe we need amnesty? Gimme’ a break…

  • G.Patrick Donahue

    It’s an Obamiracle!

  • Matthew W

    There is the possibility that the Democrats commited vote fraud and stole elections??
    SO WHAT !!!!
    RINOs don’t have the testicles to challenge it.

  • Elilla Shadowheart

    The Big O: I command you dead! Rise up, Rise up for the holy one! Vote for your new messiah!

  • Paula

    Thank you Stacy McCain for writing about this. Awesome!

    I don’t see it as conspiracy theory as these are hard facts. I saw many tweets coming in Election day saying: they tried to vote and someone had already voted in their name, poll workers complaining about screen shifting from Romney to Obama on voting machines etc.( I have saved as many reports as I can.)


    The reasons I want to make it an issue is: 1) the media is spinning the demographic results by these fraudulant results 2) Democrats are always crying voter suppression, it’s time to expose theirs. 3) As Americans we should be allowed fair & free elections 4) and this is the main one–> Something should be done about this problem before the 2014 elections. We need to get rid of these antiquated, Soros affiliated voting machines.

  • rosalie

    Why do we keep ignoring this? We’re not called the party of stupid for nothing. We earned it.

  • Pingback: Voter Fraud: How We Fight It | Nathan Martin()

  • Thane_Eichenauer

    I wonder if Ohio Secretary of State Ron Hulstead (Republican) will look into these unusual results?

    I give the odds of that happening to be about as likely as the Federal Reserve being audited.

  • dmandmand

    Here is the problem. The decision making people in the GOP have no spine. As long as they will roll over and play dead to get cocktail party initiations this will continue. Col. West had a spine and lo and be-hold the recount showed he won. If the GOP officials simply made it clear that the would force full criminal prosecution and max sentences for voter fraud we have Pres elect Romney and not the Pretender.

  • K-Bob

    Welcome to the United States of Chicago

  • K-Bob

    Update on Allen West over at The Shark Tank.

  • alwaysfiredup

    Relax guys. There are more cards because there were so many races/questions that the ballot covered 2 pages. Some voters cast both sheets and some only cast one.

  • lolvincitomnia

    Amazing isn’t it that the Florida GOP and the RNC aren’t backing up Allen West, just like they didn’t do a damned thing about the obvious electoral fraud in the swing states. They’re complicit and we need to replace the RNC and reclaim the GOP, it’s our party it doesn’t belong to the inside the beltway pigs.

  • lolvincitomnia

    The RNC want either open borders globalists Rubio or Jeb Bush, they seek to serve the same masters Obama does. We need to disavow the RNC leadership and throw our weight behind a republican leadership committed to the constitution and the citizenry.

  • Bob Belvedere

    He won’t.
    I’ve been warning people for four Goddamn years [since I began blogging] that Willard Mitt Romney is a wimp, but so many didn’t listen. I live in New England and have followed him since the mid-1990’s when he ran against Teddy Kennedy. He always, in the end, wimps out…but he sure made a gracious concession speech [as Stacy predicted], eh?

  • Bob Belvedere


    ‘Why upset things!’, they would say, ‘We’ll do just fine as long as we preserve things as they are’.

  • Bob Belvedere

    I think this behavior on our part [I’m speaking of conservative, not the GOP Establishment – they have other reasons (none noble)] is due to our belief that, in America, such ruthless and thuggish things don’t happen in Presidential races.

    We have to wake-up and realize that the foe we face, the Left, is not American in it’s thinking at all. It is profoundly anti-American and will do anything, commit any crime, to achieve it’s ends.

  • Bob Belvedere

    The Florida GOP are the ones who redrew the District lines in order to Gerrymander Rep. West out of office.

  • Evi L. Bloggerlady

    They did not have the poll watchers in place to stop it. They did not have lawyers ready to file injunctions and seek court orders.
    ORCA was flounding on the beach on election day and 30,000 volunteers were floundering too.
    It was a cluster fuck of incompetency.

    The GOP is a worthless party of fools. It is time to rethink this because the Dems are going to steam roll us if we do not.

  • jsn2

    Vote fraud was basically given a green light by the DOJ voting rights division. The dems know there will be no official investigation and the media will ignore.

    Scroll through all the vote fraud articles by J. Christian Adams
    to see the joke Eric Holder is –

  • jsn2

    When the DOJ encourages vote fraud for their team we have a problem

  • Paula

    Yes they did! A lot of FreedomWorks & TeaParty people were poll watchers. There were tweets all day long about election day craziness from poll watchers. Some were kicked out by Obma ppl and many were reporting the problems voters were having all day. Voters came in to vote and were told someone had already voted in their name. Some were having problems with the screen changing from Romney to Obama when they voted. Here’s one example of a tweet –>”I’m an OH poll worker,saw voting machine flip votes 2Obama Tues.Reported it to BOE& shut machines down.” (I have others) They wondered how many people voted in the faulty machines before they discovered this problem.
    No one in the GOP seems to want to do anything about it.
    Now the media is using these fraudulant results to report demographic numbesr of Reps, blacks, Cubans etc that voted for Obama.
    Problem is, GOP is allowing the media to set the dialog about the Election and they look like wimps.
    Grrrr. When will this madness end? IMHO I wish the GOP would speak up and set the facts straight, quit letting MSM set the narrative. It’s as though they’re afraid to.

  • Paula


  • Paula

    Amen to that!

  • HMSLion

    Challenge, nothing. Election fraud is like war crimes. They don’t stop because you protested. They stop because you made reprisals in kind.

  • Matthew W

    ” the Dems are going to steam roll us if we do not.”

    Too late, we get rolled everyday

  • lolvincitomnia

    The 2 pages are all on 1 card.

  • Matthew W

    It has been known since 2008 that the NObama team was taking illegal campaign money.


  • Matthew W

    Nothing says mission accomplished like a gracious concession speech !!

  • Rich Vail

    Why do you think Democrats fight voter ID laws so vociferously? They know that if the playing field is even, there’s a seriously large chance that voter fraud will no longer win them electoins.

  • Lackto Ringwald

    Why didn’t Romney and the GOP anticipate this? It was rampant in at least 6 states. They knew the 6 or more states they needed and made sure to get the Senate seats. Not a word from the media – who were calling races early. Not a word from talk radio.

    ABC/Disney tormenting conservatives with hope Romney had a chance when they knew it was fixed.

    Mitt’s people fooling around with a stuxnet GOTV app that did not work. You have to go back to paper votes at precincts with the national guard. If it takes a week to vote then do it. This was a total fraud.

  • rosalie

    Exactly. How about “they bring a knife, we’ll bring a gun” philosphy?

  • rosalie

    I don’t know a darn thing and I antipated it. Republican inspectors were thrown out of the precincts in Philly in 2008. Did we learn? Heck no! They were thrown out of the Philly precincts 2012.

  • rosalie

    So why don’t the Republicans fight harder for voter ID?

  • Brian D Paasch

    Waiting for the GOP to give a rip….



  • Brian D Paasch

    Because they are quite happy with the status quo.

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  • pa

    Can you provide a link for this? Twitchy and other sites are debunking the 141% vote by explaining the two-cards-but-one-vote misunderstanding.

    I have my doubts, and I believe there was massive voter fraud all over the US that accounts for the surprising number of Republican losses by small margins, despite predicted wins.

    I would like more information about your explanation, please. I BELIEVE you, but I have to admit that it’s because I WANT to believe you. I have not seen anyone else present the information you have given here, so please help refute the deniers by providing solid evidence to support your explanation.

  • HealthyAmerican

    And once again…nothing will be done about it.

  • Beeblebrocs

    It’s obvious as the day is long that Romney lost because of fraud on a massive scale. How do we know this? Because had Romney gotten just a few more votes than McCain did in ’08, he would have won. This begs the question, how does the 2008 GOP nominee, who no one could stand and was universally detested by conservatives, get more votes than the much more conservative, well spoken, well funded, well Veeped, great debater, 2012 GOP nominee?

    Answer: obviously Romney must have gotten more votes. All indicators point to this.

    No incumbent POTUS gets reelected with unemployment above 7.2%. They don’t get reelected when they poll below 50%. And on and on. But we are to believe that we all just loved McCain over Romney by an extra 2 million votes?

    That didn’t happen. Romney got more votes than Obama. Where are they now?

  • Finrod Felagund

    Precisely! We need to be raising hell about this and use it to flip Florida. Not because it will change the outcome of the election at all, but so every time Democrats pooh-pooh Republicans talking about voter fraud, we can say “Florida 2012: voter fraud flipped a state. What if 2012 was 2000-close?”

  • rosalie

    The Establishmnet are absolutely the same as the Dems.

  • Mike Rogers

    Don’t transmit these figures to Vladimir, he would be jealous. These kinds of margins are the stuff you expect from a banana republic, or Russia. Oh, well, pass the bananas…

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  • Mike Rogers

    St Lucie looks highly confusing: was it 70% turnout or 141%? The other cases look, walk, and quack, like fraud.
    Suspicious numbers of same day registrations in NH, too…… Investigating.

  • Bob Belvedere