The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

Senate Poll Wars

Posted on | September 17, 2014 | 54 Comments

Less than seven weeks before Election Day 2014, the epic struggle to control the media narrative continues:

Democrats are now (very slightly) favored to hold the Senate majority on Nov. 4, according to Election Lab, The Post’s statistical model of the 2014 midterm elections.
Election Lab puts Democrats’ chances of retaining their majority at 51 percent — a huge change from even a few months ago, when the model predicted that Republicans had a better than 80 percent chance of winning the six seats they need to take control.

What this is about is managing expectations, preventing Democrats (and their reliable allies in the media) from becoming demoralized by the more likely prospect that Republicans will capture control of the Senate in November. Last week, poll wizard Nate Silver gave the GOP a 65% chance of winning the Senate majority, and I cautioned at that time a lot could change between early September and Nov. 4.

A mid-term election is not like a presidential campaign, where there are two candidate engaged daily in a single contest. A Senate campaign is fought in multiple states, and a shift in any one of those races could have a significant impact on the Big Picture, where the question is whether the Republicans will make a net gain of enough seats to displace Harry Reid as Senate Majority Leader. Can Republican Sen. Pat Roberts halt his slide in the polls in Kansas? Can the GOP do something to torpedo Democrat Sen. Kay Hagan? These are the kind of questions that will be answered over the next 49 days, and we don’t know what the answer will be.

My hunch — and it is only a hunch — is that we will wake up on the morning of Wednesday, Nov. 5, with the issue still in doubt. There will probably still be two or three Senate races within the range of a recount, and all eyes will quickly turn to Louisiana, where the runoff to decide Mary Landrieu’s fate will be the tiebreaker.

 

Category: Election, Polls, Senate

Comments

54 Responses to “Senate Poll Wars”

  1. Dana
    September 17th, 2014 @ 7:44 am

    Not much there. But, as encouraging as some of the polls look, there’s only one poll that actually means anything, and that’s in November.

  2. Quartermaster
    September 17th, 2014 @ 7:49 am

    It would seem state level polling shows things tightening up. This is to be expected as it happens almost every time. Frankly, I don’t expect the GOP to take the senate. The establishment has acted like idiots and declared war on their base. Add in poor choice of candidates (NC’s Tillis for example has lost a lot of support and was a veeeeery poor choice as he’s the guy that tried to push adoption of Obamacare in NC), and you get poor results.
    We’ll see what happens on the 1st Tuesday in November because, as the old saw goes, that’s the only poll that counts for anything.

  3. Senate Poll Wars | That Mr. G Guy's Blog
    September 17th, 2014 @ 8:49 am

    […] Senate Poll Wars. […]

  4. Mike G.
    September 17th, 2014 @ 8:50 am

    So you’re saying Mary Landrieu has a chance?

  5. reliapundit
    September 17th, 2014 @ 9:10 am

    if it’s as close as the dems want, then they’ll only trail by a little on election day – and be close enough to steal the seats they need.

  6. reliapundit
    September 17th, 2014 @ 9:12 am

    warning: hollande is at 13%, yet he and his pm won a “no confidence” vote in their national assembly.

  7. trangbang68
    September 17th, 2014 @ 10:04 am

    Indeed, brother. I believe that is exactly the narrative that is unfolding before us. Build a perception that it’s a close race and then bring out the stuffed ballot boxes in the wee hours of election night. I think seeing the malevolent swine Harry Reid staying in the Majority Leader’s chair is going to be very hard for me to deal with if it comes down like you say.

  8. Charles
    September 17th, 2014 @ 10:22 am

    Changing the narrative from “those evil Republicans are about to win” to
    “it looks like the good old Democrats are trending toward squeaking by again”
    could backfire.

    There are some independent voters who might be inclined to vote for the Republican candidate in their state but are reluctant to pass the U.S. Senate baton to Mitch McConnell. The new narrative tends to relieve that concern.

  9. DeadMessenger
    September 17th, 2014 @ 11:29 am

    Seems surreal, I know.

  10. DeadMessenger
    September 17th, 2014 @ 11:36 am

    I’m sorry to say this, but I think God will give us the government that we deserve. He has so far. Of course, 2 Chronicles 7:14 and all that…

  11. Adobe_Walls
    September 17th, 2014 @ 12:06 pm

    That old saw is getting pretty boring.

  12. Quartermaster
    September 17th, 2014 @ 12:15 pm

    Yeah, but it’s the way it is whether we like it or not.

  13. kilo6
    September 17th, 2014 @ 1:00 pm

    True, also there’s Psalm 145

    [1] Alleluia, of Aggeus and Zacharias. [2] Praise the Lord, O my soul, in my life I will praise the Lord: I will sing to my God as long as I shall be. Put not your trust in princes: [3] In the children of men, in whom there is no salvation. [4] His spirit shall go forth, and he shall return into his earth: in that day all their thoughts shall perish. [5] Blessed is he who hath the God of Jacob for his helper, whose hope is in the Lord his God:

  14. Adobe_Walls
    September 17th, 2014 @ 1:20 pm

    Kay Hagan won in 08 because she was running against the very poor senator Libby Dole which is why her margin of victory was over 350 thousand versus Obama’s 14 thousand. One of the many reason NC voters were unhappy with Dole is because she spent an inordinate amount of her time in neither DC nor NC. Hagan cosponsors a lot of bills but her accomplishments as a Senator are fairly paltry. The incentive to vote for her is mainly to vote against her opponent. Those North Carolinians who are unhappy with the NC state legislature and are motivated to vote will vote for Hagan.

  15. DeadMessenger
    September 17th, 2014 @ 2:28 pm

    Amen.

  16. Beeblebrocs
    September 17th, 2014 @ 2:29 pm

    And even that poll doesn’t seem to count for anything either.

  17. Beeblebrocs
    September 17th, 2014 @ 2:32 pm

    But what is worse, having Harry Reid blocking everything the House does or having McConnell in there helping Obama get everything he wants?

  18. Beeblebrocs
    September 17th, 2014 @ 2:34 pm

    Heck, there are Conservatives who are reluctant to see the baton passed to McConnell. 🙁

  19. Quartermaster
    September 17th, 2014 @ 2:42 pm

    Tillis does not have one of the most effective weapons available to him, Hagan’s open, enthusiastic support of Obamacare. Tillis tried to enact the expansion of Medicaid so that Obamacare could be brought into the state. Tillis has much the same problem as Romney. Tillis is, in many ways, as bad as Dole was. Tillis is also a firm GOPe member, and a Tokyo Rove man.

  20. Finrod Felagund
    September 17th, 2014 @ 3:19 pm

    What concerns me is Kansas, where we could lose a seat to a faux independent the way things are going.

  21. Daniel O'Brien
    September 17th, 2014 @ 3:23 pm

    You know the Democratic Rules of Recount, don’t you, Stacy? The recount continues until the Democrat wins!

  22. McGehee
    September 17th, 2014 @ 3:45 pm

    Has anyone found the kitchen sink the Establicans threw at Milton Wolf? It may have landed somewhere near Garden City.

  23. Stogie Chomper
    September 17th, 2014 @ 3:52 pm

    Hooray, Stacy returns to politics! I really like his analyses and informative essays on these very important topics.

  24. bitterlyclinging
    September 17th, 2014 @ 4:43 pm

    If its close enough for a run off or recount the Democrats will steal the elections ie Barack Obama’s prodigious fund raising efforts

  25. Adobe_Walls
    September 17th, 2014 @ 5:00 pm

    Amen.

  26. JadedByPolitics
    September 17th, 2014 @ 5:04 pm

    It certainly didn’t have to be this way but the GOP is hell bent and determined to have it this way. I know the guys in DC don’t care if they take the Senate or not, those already there enjoy the power regardless of who control what. It is a sickness that envelopes them. I will vote for the jackass here in VA and only because Marco Rubio threatened me with running in 2016 if the GOP didn’t take the senate.

  27. Adobe_Walls
    September 17th, 2014 @ 5:34 pm

    He’s also on the wrong side of common core, and he’s endorsed by a lot the wrong people, didn’t find anything on him supporting medicaid expansion though he did try to get NC to set up a state exchange. As for being a “firm GOPe member” there are no future “President Ruthless Hardasses” running for Senate this year nor is it likely there will ever be one from the Republicans. My point however wasn’t voting for Tillis was a good vote but rather that there is no particularly good reason to vote for Hagan. The only reason to vote for either would be regain or retain the senate majority.

  28. Caribou "PAYCUT" Barbie™
    September 17th, 2014 @ 6:55 pm

    You will lose.
    So much for that G0P bloodbath, eh?

  29. Mike G.
    September 17th, 2014 @ 7:19 pm

    Have you got your ‘Rubio 2016’ yard ornaments yet? Might want to get a head start on your neighbors. Be the first one on your block.

  30. JadedByPolitics
    September 17th, 2014 @ 7:33 pm

    I be ice skating in hell before I put a Rubio sign in my yard :()

  31. JadedByPolitics
    September 17th, 2014 @ 7:40 pm

    I tell all those I help that if they don’t see a wave they will lose, they have to beat their opponent by 3-5% points or they will steal it. Of course I also warn those decent human beings who think about running that their family is fair game and their opponents is not.

    It is trench warfare & the left have the gutter consumed & if you don’t jump on their heads down in that gutter once in a while and kick their faces you will lose.

  32. Mike G.
    September 17th, 2014 @ 7:58 pm

    Just figured y’all could use it for target practice or something.

  33. JadedByPolitics
    September 17th, 2014 @ 7:59 pm

    oooh thanks that there is a great idea, I was to quick on the trigger there!

  34. Adobe_Walls
    September 17th, 2014 @ 8:06 pm

    I thought he died oh wait that was just his presidential ambitions

  35. Finrod Felagund
    September 17th, 2014 @ 8:14 pm

    Look, a turd followed me here. Sorry, Wombat, didn’t mean to attract any of the idiot leftist troll types to here.

  36. Finrod Felagund
    September 17th, 2014 @ 8:21 pm

    “Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.” — H. L. Mencken

  37. Caribou "PAYCUT" Barbie™
    September 17th, 2014 @ 8:42 pm

    Always with the name calling.
    Grow up

  38. Caribou "PAYCUT" Barbie™
    September 17th, 2014 @ 8:43 pm

    Democrats now have a 51 percent chance of holding the Senate

  39. K-Bob
    September 17th, 2014 @ 10:58 pm

    From all I’ve seen the past six weeks, Republicans are trying harder to lose than at any time since I began following politics. Otherwise known as the Jimmy Carter presidency.

    After tonight’s House vote to arm the Syrian rebels, I really wonder why we even have two parties.

  40. K-Bob
    September 17th, 2014 @ 10:59 pm

    Probably “only” as well.

  41. K-Bob
    September 17th, 2014 @ 11:01 pm

    You forgot to wipe your shoes.

    It won’t last long here.

  42. Adobe_Walls
    September 17th, 2014 @ 11:09 pm

    And the second party would be?

  43. Finrod Felagund
    September 18th, 2014 @ 12:10 am

    Yeah, my bad. It’s what I get for stomping trolls at Twitchy and Daily Caller. Mostly I wanted to give everyone a Bad Actor warning about it.

  44. Caribou "PAYCUT" Barbie™
    September 18th, 2014 @ 1:00 am

    Go back and mod your own POS site you fat turd.

  45. Wombat_socho
    September 18th, 2014 @ 1:11 am

    Then you won’t mind if I ban you and delete almost all your posts.
    Bye now.

  46. K-Bob
    September 18th, 2014 @ 1:40 am

    All’s I know is they have two conventions.
    One to kill babies and Jesus, the other to kill any chance at Restoration of Liberty.

  47. Adjoran
    September 18th, 2014 @ 1:54 am

    Truth be told, in nearly every case cited in this “major shift,” both candidates’ support is within the MOE of where it was in the previous poll. This “shift” is likely normal poll deviations.

    Electoral polling is the most accurate, but even it is unreliable until the last weeks before an election, the last 30 days or so. It is neither appropriate to celebrate anything or whine about anything yet.

    Except for Allah, who considers crying like a little girl either therapeutic or stimulating.

  48. Adobe_Walls
    September 18th, 2014 @ 3:03 am

    I think all polling is becoming more problematic. I seem to recall pollsters from 2012 having an 11 percent response rate. If ninety out of every one hundred contacts refuse to talk to you it has to be hard to get accurate numbers.

  49. Evi L. Bloggerlady
    September 18th, 2014 @ 3:15 am

    You a fine gardner, removing the weeds.

  50. Squid Hunt
    September 18th, 2014 @ 9:58 am

    Isn’t that the question?