The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

YUGE Win for Trump: Illegal Immigrant Population Has Dropped by 1 Million!

Posted on | June 19, 2025 | 2 Comments

Remember how in 2012, during a Republican primary debate, Mitt Romney was mocked for saying he was in favor of “self-deportation”? The audience actually laughed, as Romney explained that it would not be necessary to “round people up,” but rather that enforcement of the E-Verify system for employment would cause illegal aliens to leave the country voluntarily. Liberals treated this idea as if it were some kind of joke, but Romney’s point — that if the U.S. ever got serious about enforcing our immigration laws, this would encourage illegals to leave — has now been vindicated. Steven Camarota and Karen Zeigler of the Center for Immigration Studies report:

Our analysis of the Bureau of Labor Statistics household survey, officially called the Current Population Survey (CPS), shows a large decline in the foreign-born or immigrant population (legal and illegal) between January and May of this year. The decline was caused by a falloff in the number of non-citizens from Latin America who arrived in 1980 or later, a population that overlaps significantly with illegal immigrants. We preliminarily estimate that the number of illegal immigrants has fallen by one million since the start of the year, perhaps due to their leaving in response to President Trump’s election and stepped-up enforcement efforts. . . .

• Based on the CPS, published figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that the number of foreign-born individuals in the labor force declined by 601,000 from January to May 2025.
• Our analysis of the raw data shows the total foreign-born population, both in and out of the labor force, declined 957,000 from January to May 2025. This is one of the largest declines over a 4-month period in the foreign-born in the last three decades, but it is not unprecedented.
• The decline was entirely among non-citizens. The number of naturalized U.S. citizens in the data did not fall from January to May of this year.
• In particular, non-citizens from Latin America who indicated they arrived in the United States in 1980 or later show a 1.07 million decrease from January to May of this year and a 1.45 million falloff since December 2024.
• It is well-established that the post-1980 Latin American non-citizen population overlaps significantly with the illegal immigrant population.
Our preliminary estimate is that there are 14.8 million illegal immigrants in the country in May 2025, one million fewer than we estimated in January of this year. . . .

You can read the whole thing. Let’s extrapolate a bit from this analysis. If the number of illegal immigrants decreased by one million in about five months, that’s an average decline of 200,000 every month — roughly 2.4 million per year. So if the current trend could be continued, by the time the 2028 election rolls around, the number of illegals in the United States will be less than it was when Joe Biden took office in 2021.

Keep in mind that the average population of a Congressional district is about 760,000, so that for every 2.3 million illegal immigrants you deport, you’re taking away three House seats (and three Electoral College votes) from states that have large illegal populations. The Top 10 of these include five “blue” states: California (2.6 million illegal aliens), New Jersey (490,000),Illinois (420,000), New York (410,000) and Washington (340,000), as well as two “red” states — Texas (2.1 million) and Florida (590,000) — and the “swing” states of North Carolina (360,000), Georgia (340,000) and Arizona (290,000). Thus, if strict enforcement could reduce the illegal alien population by 7 million by the time the 2030 Census arrives, the chances of Democrats winning the Electoral College (or a House majority) in the 2032 election would almost certainly be diminished — and perhaps by a significant margin.

Democrats know this, of course, which is why they’re pulling all kinds of stunts to try to stop Trump from enforcing the law.

Hey, did I mention the Democratic Party is going broke?

Good times, my friends — good times!



 

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Comments

2 Responses to “YUGE Win for Trump: Illegal Immigrant Population Has Dropped by 1 Million!”

  1. Linking Weekend Fun | If You are Left you ain't Right
    June 19th, 2025 @ 6:16 pm

    […] Also, McCain has THIS […]

  2. President Trump is winning on immigration: a large number of illegals have apparently self-deported – THE FIRST STREET JOURNAL.
    June 19th, 2025 @ 6:51 pm

    […] good friend Robert Stacy McCain noted this Juneteenth that Steven Camerota and Karen Ziegler of the Center for Immigration Studies analyzed reports from […]