The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

COVID-19 Update

Posted on | October 19, 2020 | 1 Comment

For the past few months, I’ve been ignoring the news about COVID-19 because who cares? Once we got over the original lockdown hysteria — first two weeks to “slow the spread,” then another month to “flatten the curve” — the pandemic ceased to be newsworthy. Medical science developed effective therapeutic regimes that substantially lowered the death rate, and death rates are the only statistic that really counts.

The number of COVID-19 deaths reported daily in the U.S. peaked six months ago, on April 21, at 2,742 daily. There was a belated summer uptick, which peaked at 1,851 deaths on July 30, and since then the toll has gradually but steadily declined. During the week of Sept. 14-20, the average daily death total was 782; during the most recent week, Oct. 12-18, the average was 725 deaths daily, a 7.3% decline in about a month, and about 30% lower than in the first week of August.

This is unmistakably good news, but the media keeps fear-mongering about “surges” and “outbreaks” based on the number of reported new cases. But they’re counting every positive test as a “case,” without regard for whether the person testing positive has any symptoms at all, much less whether they require hospitalization. If someone tests positive for the coronavirus, yet has only mild symptoms that don’t even require a doctor’s visit, why are such “cases” presented as evidence of an impending crisis? Yet that’s what the media is doing.

‘Hunker down’: The fall Covid-19 surge is here
— CNN, Oct. 13

The Third Coronavirus Surge Has Arrived
— The Atlantic, Oct. 15

Rural Midwest hospitals struggling
to handle coronavirus surge: “It just exploded”
— CBS News, Oct. 19

You see the theme here. Just in time for the home stretch of the presidential election campaign, the dreaded surge has arrived. And while there has, indeed, been a remarkable increase in the number of new cases reported, this has not been reflected in an upward trend in the number of coronavirus deaths — as I say, the past week’s death numbers were 7.3. percent down from a month ago, and nearly a third lower than in August. What is likely being reported as a “surge” is a pattern of outbreaks among school-age children, but since anyone under 60 has a 99.9% survival rate from COVID-19, this “surge” likely won’t result in any substantial increase in deaths. A nationwide crisis, it ain’t.

You know who is having a COVID-19 crisis? Belgium:

Belgium could soon be overwhelmed by new coronavirus infections, the health minister has warned, amid soaring case numbers across the country.
Frank Vandenbroucke said new cases were close to a “tsunami” where authorities “no longer control what is happening”.
New measures to try to halt the spread came into force on Monday. All bars and restaurants are closed for four weeks.
Infection numbers are climbing throughout Europe, prompting new restrictions across the continent. . . .
Belgium was one of the worst-hit countries during Europe’s first wave of coronavirus earlier this year.
Overall it has the third-highest number of Covid-related deaths per 100,000 people globally, behind only Peru and San Marino, according to Johns Hopkins University data. . . .
According to the Belgian health institute Sciensano, Belgium has recorded an average of 7,876 new daily infections over the last seven days, a 79% rise on the previous week. Last Tuesday the country reported 12,051 cases in 24 hours, its highest daily figure since the pandemic began.
Hospitalisations have also risen, with 2,485 people in hospital with Covid-19 on Monday. Officials warn that if cases continue to rise at the same rate, Belgium will fill its capacity of 2,000 intensive care beds by mid-November.
“The situation is serious,” Prime Minister Alexander De Croo told RTL. “It is worse than on March 18 when the lockdown was decided.”

Compare Belgium to Florida. Remember when Gov. Ron DeSantis ended the lockdowns and everybody thought Florida was headed for disaster?

Nope. Didn’t happen. Still not happening.

While Belgium (population 11.5 million) was reporting nearly 8,000 new cases daily last week, Florida (population 21.5 million) was reporting a little over 2,900 cases daily for the week of Oct. 12-18. With a population nearly twice as large as Belgium’s, in other words, Florida’s average daily new case number was about 63% lower. The state’s daily death totals have decreased more than 50% during the past two months.




 

Category: Science

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One Response to “COVID-19 Update”

  1. The State of the Pandemic | 357 Magnum Archive 2.0
    October 22nd, 2020 @ 10:17 pm

    […] Other McCain has a COVID-19 Update The latest surge is here. “Just in time for the home stretch of the presidential election […]