The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

Election Results 2024: Trump Wins Georgia and North Carolina, Leads Pennsylvania and Wisconsin

Posted on | November 5, 2024 | No Comments

UPDATE 12:40 a.m. ET Wednesday: MSNBC just called Georgia and North Carolina for Trump who, I should mention,currently leads by 2.7 points in Pennsylvania and 3.5 points in Wisconsin.

EXPECT FURTHER UPDATES . . .

UPDATE 11:45 p.m. ET: MSNBC just called Trump the winner in North Carolina. Trump is getting very close to a win in Georgia. With 91% counted, he leads by about 135,000 votes (a 2.7% margin, 50.9% to 48.2%) and it’s estimated that less than 500,000 votes remain to be counted. Meanwhile, in Ohio, Republican Bernie Moreno has beaten Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, which practically guarantees a GOP Senate majority. In Pennsylvania, Republican challenger Dave McCormick is is leading Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Jr. by more than 100,000 votes, while Trump continues to hold a lead of more than three points over Harris. She just got called the winner in Virginia.

UPDATE 10:55 p.m. ET: Just watched Steve Kornacki do a symphony of hard truth on MSNBC. In state after state, in county after county, tonight is looking a lot more like 2016 — a Trump win — than like 2020, when Biden “won.” MSNBC hasn’t yet called either Georgia or North Carolina for Trump, but Decision Desk HQ has.

UPDATE 10:30 p.m. ET: In Georgia, with 86% of the statewide vote now counted, it’s Trump 51.2% to Harris 48.0% — a margin of 150,000 votes (3.2%). Getting a bit close for my taste. In Wisconsin, meanwhile, Trump leads by about 6,000 votes (49.4% to 49.0%) with 48% of the vote counted.

UPDATE 10:15 p.m. ET: In Pennsylvania, Trump had been trailing in the early returns, but with 50% of the vote now counted, it’s Trump 50.4%, Harris 48.7% — a lead of nearly 60,000 votes for Trump.

UPDATE 10:10 p.m. ET: OK, we’re starting to see some Georgia counties where 99% of the vote is reported. Barrow County, where Trump got 26,804 votes (70.6%) in 2020, he now has 30,674 votes (69.9%) so that he has increased his vote total, but with a slight decrease of percentage. In Walker County, where Trump got 23,173 votes (78.9%) in 2020, he now has 25,452 (79.3%) — increasing both his vote total and percentage. The question is whether small gains like this in more rural counties will be enough to offset Kamala’s big numbers in metro Atlanta. As of now, with 79% of the statewide vote counted, Trump leads by 52% to Harris’s 47%. The Real Clear Politics poll average for Georgia was Trump +1.3. He is overperforming the polls Georgia, so far.

UPDATE 9:45 p.m. ET: Right now, with 75% of votes counted in Georgia, Trump leads by a 5.2-point margin, about 112,000 votes. That’s a bit too close for comfort. In my next update, I’ll do some county-by-count breakdowns of Georgia. Meanwhile in Virginia, with 61% reporting, Trump leads by about 16,000 votes. He probably won’t win there, but the fact that it’s this close is a very good sign. Ohio has been called for Trump — it was never in doubt, really — and the encouraging thing there is that Trump’s margin is about 11 points, with 64% counted. Trump won by 8 points in Ohio in 2020, so expanding his margin there would bode well for Michigan and Wisconsin. We shall see . . .

UPDATE 8:50 p.m. ET: With 87% counted in Florida, Trump’s margin there is now 13 points, while in Virginia, with 43% counted, it’s a 49%-49% dead heat. These are good omens for Trump.

UPDATE 8:22 p.m. ET: Wait a minute — I heard that wrong! Hallucinations? Flashbacks from that 1979 psilocybin trip? Whatever — MSNBC still has Georgia “too early to call.” Apologies for the false alarm.

UPDATE 8:15 p.m. ET: Georgia is the first battleground state called for either candidate, and MSNBC calls it for Trump. The word for this is YUGE! Remember, the margin of victory is important here as an indicator of how other battlegrounds may go, but to be declared the winner in Georgia barely an hour after polls closed? YUGE!

*** PREVIOUSLY (6:45 p.m. ET) ***

Usually, I watch CNN (so you don’t have to), but tonight my home office TV is tuned to MSNBC, because I think it’s gonna be glorious! Trump wins this thing? They’ll be crying 96 tears on MSNBC, baby.

Anyway, earlier today, I told you about Stacey Abrams and her fantasies of “voter suppression” in Georgia, and I turned some of that material into a column at The American Spectator:

When the Georgia General Assembly enacted new election laws in 2022, the state was targeted by a dishonest propaganda campaign led by the president of the United States. The new Georgia law was “Jim Crow 2.0,” Joe Biden said — a hateful smear for which that notorious liar has never apologized. Excuse my indignation, but I was born in Atlanta and grew up in Douglas County, Georgia, and this disgusting slander outraged my sense of pride in my native state. Yet the beautiful irony is that the new law in Georgia may prevent America from suffering another one of those “too close to call” nightmares such as was inflicted on us four years ago.
Georgia has greatly increased its early voting, and the votes that have been cast early will also be counted early, so that within a couple of hours of 7 p.m. Eastern, when polls close in Georgia, we may know the winner of that state. Depending on how Georgia goes, the winner there may be almost certainly projected as the winner of 270 Electoral College votes necessary to claim the White House. . . . 

You can read the rest of that. We’re getting ready for the polls to close in Georgia now, and I’ll be back with updates on that and other numbers.

UPDATE 7:05 p.m. ET: MSNBC just projected Kentucky for Trump and Vermont for Harris, but claims that both Indiana and South Carolina are “too early to call.” LOL. However, Virginia — a state Joe Biden won by 10 points — is also “too early to call,” which could be interesting.

UPDATE 7:10 p.m. ET: OK, now MSNBC has called Indiana for Trump, and also projected Republican Jim Banks has won the Senate race in Indiana. Meanwhile, we’re starting to get results in Florida, which is not a battleground state, but which may give us an indication of whether Kamala Harris is underperforming Joe Biden. So far, with 18% reporting, it’s Trump 51.9% to Harris 47.2% — not much different from the Trump-Biden numbers four years ago. We’ll see.

UPDATE 7:25 p.m. ET: OK, I’m watching Steve Kornacki break down Georgia votes, with only 3% statewide reporting so far, but we’ve got a few GOP-leaning counties — including Gordon and Union — that are up around 80% reporting, and these seem to be on pace to hold strong for Trump. Honestly, we need Trump to get up around 52% in Georgia to feel comfortable with the other battlegrounds.

UPDATE 7:35 p.m. ET: Welcome, Instapundit readers! The polls have just closed in North Carolina, and meanwhile, MSNBC has just projected Donald Trump the winner in West Virginia (just in case anybody didn’t already know). And at this moment, with 9% of returns counted in Georgia, Trump leads 60% to 40% over Harris.

UPDATE 7:50 p.m. ET: It’s rather too early to draw any conclusions from the Florida vote — 71% counted, and polls still open in the western panhandle — but it doesn’t look bad for Trump there. To repeat, Florida is not a battleground, but we want to see if Trump does better against Harris than he did against Biden four years ago. In order to be confident that he can flip the battleground states, Trump needs to be exceeding his 2020 vote share everywhere. Right now, it’s Trump 54% to Harris 45% — a substantial improvement on the 51%-48% against Biden four years ago.

UPDATE 8:10 p.m. ET: Several states just got called by MSNBC, including Florida for Trump. Again, this was not a battleground, but Trump’s Margin of victory in Florida may be indicative of his nationwide strength compared to 2020. Right now, with 78% of the votes counted, it’s Trump 55%, Harris 44% — a substantial gain for Trump. Meanwhile, Steve Kornacki is going through Georgia county-by-county, and finding net gains of between 1 and 3 points for Trump. As I’ve said, we need to see Trump at 52% in Georgia to feel comfortable about North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Right now, with 36% reporting, he’s at 56%.

Hang on and keep praying, folks.



 

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Category: Donald Trump, Election, Florida, Georgia, Kamala Harris, MSNBC, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin

Georgia: How’s ‘Jim Crow 2.0’ Working?

Posted on | November 5, 2024 | No Comments

Despite the fact that early voting has set historic records in Georgia, a certain Democrat remains permanently disgruntled:

Former Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams is claiming that “voter suppression” is occurring in Georgia despite record turnout in the Peach State.
During Friday’s installment of “CNN News Central,” co-anchor Kate Bolduan asked Abrams what she believes is driving the surge in early voting.
“While we are excited about who is showing up, we have to understand that turnout does not mean there is not voter suppression activity,” Abrams replied.
She suggested that one of the reasons for long early voting lines is because residents can no longer use the “easier” method of voting by mail.
“People who are disabled, people who have lost their homes are facing harder times casting their ballots, but they refuse to be silenced. What we are excited about is that here in the state of Georgia, despite the government making it harder to cast your ballot, people are willing to fight to make it happen anyway,” Abrams continued.
Senate Bill 202, which was adopted by the Georgia General assembly in 2021, made several changes to absentee ballots. Prior to its passage, signature verification was the primary means of checking voter identity, according to the Fulton County website.
Absentee ballots could also be requested up until the Friday before the election.
The new method stipulates that Georgia voters provide their Driver’s License number or other forms of voter ID and must request their ballot at least 11 days before the election.
“Once again, Stacey Abrams is lying about Georgia’s elections, and over three million voters who have already voted know not to take her seriously,” Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said in a statement to Fox News Digital. “She’s cost the state millions and it’s time for her to get real: Georgia has the leads the nation in voter accessibility and convenience and we run the most secure elections in the country.”
Georgia voters have already shattered multiple turnout records, but that did little to temper Democratic critics of the new rules for the 2024 presidential cycle put in place by the state’s GOP officials.
“I was just in Georgia. You know they passed a law that makes it illegal to give people food and water for standing in line to vote?” Vice President Kamala Harris told a rally crowd in Michigan earlier this week. “The hypocrisy abounds. Whatever happened to ‘love thy neighbor,’ right?”
Meanwhile, President Biden called Georgia’s election security laws “Jim Crow 2.0” in 2022.
Georgia’s Republican-majority legislature passed several laws since 2020 to increase security around the voting process after the Peach State was thrust under scrutiny in the previous presidential race.

As advocates of the new Georgia law have repeatedly said, it makes it easier to vote, but harder to cheat — and it’s that latter aspect of the law that Abrams and other Democrats deplore. There was massive “ballot harvesting” in Georgia in 2020, but they won’t be able to play that trick this year, which is one reason why Team Trump feels pretty confident about Georgia. Another factor that should help Trump in Georgia is the disgrace of Fani Willis, whose RICO case against Trump got wrecked in the courts. Let me put this as gently as possible — there’s Atlanta, and then there’s the rest of Georgia. Folks out in the hinterlands of Georgia don’t want anything to do with Atlanta, and Fani Willis is a perfect example of why people in the rest of Georgia despise Atlanta.

Polls close at 7 p.m. ET in Georgia, which means it will be an early indicator of which way this election is going. You can look at the county-by-county percentages from 2020 on Wikipedia and match them against what’s reported tonight, and from that county-by-county comparison figure whether Harris is under-performing Biden or not. Remember that Biden (allegedly) won Georgia by less than 12,000 votes, so even a slight shift in Trump’s direction would flip Georgia “red.” If Trump then holds onto North Carolina, all he would need is to win Pennsylvania and that’s it — 270 Electoral College votes, no matter what happens in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona or Nevada. Furthermore, I think Mark Halperin is correct in saying that we’ll probably see the battleground states go one way or the other — it’s unlikely there will be a split decision.

A clear win for Trump in Georgia — say, 51%-47% or better — would be the first clue tonight that Kamala Harris is losing, and I think we should have a definite sense of that by 10 p.m. ET. Say a prayer.



 

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Category: Donald Trump, Election, Georgia, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris

In The Mailbox: 11.04.24

Posted on | November 4, 2024 | No Comments

— compiled by Wombat-socho

Silicon Valley et Hamas delenda sunt.

“Vote Trump & The Media Will Die” – R.S. McCain

OVER THE TRANSOM
357 Magnum: Plans for New 3D Printed 9mm Firearm Released
EBL: Strong Women for Trump, The Joy Is Gone, and RFK and Nicole Shanahan encourage you to vote for Trump
Twitchy: Joe Rogan Drops Surprise Podcast With Elon Musk On Eve Of Election, JD Vance Demonstrates Shrinkflation Under Biden-Harris, and Kamala’s Closing Message In Pennsylvania Is Every Bit As Cringe As Her Entire Campaign
Louder With Crowder: The Squirrel Heard ‘Round the World, This Dude Blew Off His Hand Celebrating The Dodgers Winning the World Series, CNN forced to admit even voters who hate Trump will vote for him over one key issue, Two Trans “Athletes” Are Crying To The Media Because Trump “Exposed” Them In Campaign Ads, and GOP Candidate Has Epic Take Down Of Out-Of-Touch Millionaire Pretending To Fight For Americans
Vox Popoli: Foreigners and Women, The Theft of Kola Coca, Yes, Commissioner, The Math of Attrition, and Unexpected!
Upstream Reviews: The Craft, also, Tenure
Postcards From Barsoom: Squirrel! 
Born Lucky: President Camacho 2024?
Draw & Talk Comics: The Final Countdown Has Begun on Super Plumber Sisters
Tom Kratman: The Care & Feeding Of Your Right-Wing Death Squad, Chapter 25
Toni Airaksinen: Professor axed after calling to “shoot men” who don’t vote for Kamala Harris
Stoic Observations: Schicksalgemeinschaft
Flappr: Big TD’s Football Blog Week 9

RIPPED FROM THE HEADLINES
American Conservative: The Final Case for Trump, also, Doesn’t Anyone Care About the Walz China Stuff?
American Greatness: White House Press Office Doctored Transcript of Joe Biden Calling Trump Supporters ‘Garbage’ Over Stenographer’s Objections, Missouri AG Andrew Bailey Sues Biden-Harris Justice Dept. Over Plan to Send Election Monitors to Polling Sites, Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold Facing Calls to Resign After Voting System Passwords Exposed on SoS Website, Megyn Kelly to Make Closing Argument For Trump in Pittsburgh Tonight, and From ‘Clingers’ to ‘Garbage’—Why the 16 years of Vilification?
American Thinker: It’s All About Control: The Elite Plan for the Great Food Reset, The Case of the Disappearing Ballots, and Will it Really be a Cliffhanger?
Animal Magnetism: Goodbye, Blue Monday
Babalu Blog: Starving Cubans reduced to gathering food spilled on the street, Thanks to U.S. sanctions, Americans not part of the millions of taxpayers who have bailed out the Cuban dictatorship, UN sends Cuba $33 million for hurricane relief as another massive hurricane approaches, and ‘Continuity’ in Cuba, yesterday and today
BattleSwarm: Election Shenanigans From Travis County Dems, Biden Administration Working Overtime To Embed As Many Illegal Aliens In America As Possible Right Up To Inauguration Day, and 2024 Pre-Election LinkSwarm
Behind The Black: Rocket startup Relativity experiencing money troubles, Japan launches military communications satellite, Three Chinese astronauts return to Earth, Australia cancels $7 billion satellite contract with Lockheed Martin, and Farewell to America
Cafe Hayek: On Wealth Creation and ‘Distribution’
CDR Salamander: Who Put Quartermaster Bloomfield In Charge Of Defending Guam?
Chicago Boyz: What We’ve Got Here is Failure to Communicate, Those Assertions About Trump’s “Darkness”, Literary Life, and The Squirrel, the Raccoon, and the Bureaucrats
Da Tech Guy: It’s The Quad Annual “Why Would You Trust A Campaign” Weekend, Brandon Johnson’s Chicago follies: The board of education disaster, Five Fast Final Weekend #election2024 Thoughts Under the Fedora, and Reality Always Wins North West Edition
Dana Loesch: Peanut The Squirrel Was About Government Overreach, also, On Election Eve
Don Surber: Oh no, the Brits hate The Donald
First Street Journal: And these are the people the ‘Palestinian’ supporters admire, also, The Las Vegas Raiders Suck!
Gates Of Vienna: Murphy Rears His Ugly Head Again, The Ammonia Wars, Consigning Brussels to the Dustbin of History, The Lingerie Revolution, and Some Common Sense in Germany?
The Geller Report: Congressional Race in New Hampshire: Privileged Leftist Elitist Meets Fiery Survivor of Leftism, Washington State, Oregon, Nevada Activate National Guard Ahead of Election, and Democrats Release Ad of Young Man M*sturbating To Get People to Vote for Kamala
Glenn Reynolds: Thoughts on the Post Election
Hollywood In Toto: Variety Says Hollywood Blacklist Worse for Female Trump Supporters, Late-Night TV Expert Says Show Profits ‘Shrunk Toward Non-Existent’, Nixon v. Harris: A Tale of Two Pop Culture Close-ups, Am I Racist? Proves Conservatives Don’t Need Hollywood, and Best Christmas Pageant Ever – Your Next Yuletide Tradition?
The Lid: White Supremacist Richard Spencer Endorses Kamala Harris, also, Tens of Thousands of Illegal Aliens in Mexico Rushing the Border for Fear Trump Will Win
Legal Insurrection: NY Man Allegedly Assaults Stranger After Being Triggered by Trump Hat, Georgia Supreme Court Freezes Cobb County Absentee Ballot Extension, Law Students Sue George Mason U. for Disciplining Them for Objecting to Tampons in Men’s Room, Pennsylvania Judge Allows Elon Musk Giveaway to Continue, and Republicans in Danger of Losing Two Iowa House Seats
Nebraska Energy Observer: Saturday – just for you, A Sunday Travelog, and And Finally
Outkick: Danica Patrick Cooks Kamala Harris With Three Powerful Words, Medical Report Reveals Boxer Who Won Olympic Gold In Women’s Division Has XY Chromosomes, ‘Testicles’, Dan Campbell Unleashes Incredible Locker Room Speech After Gritty Win, Jason Kelce Opened Monday Night Football With An Apology He Didn’t Need To Offer , and Riley Gaines Shares Stirring Message To Men Before Election Day: ‘Donald Trump Took A Bullet For You’
Power Line: Voter ID Check Versus Candidate Blood-Alcohol Test, From DMV to IRS, and Monday Campaign Notes
Protein Wisdom Reborn: Mental Sorbet – Late Edition, also, Notes from a cluttered mind – I’m not voting for Trump tomorrow and here’s why
Shark Tank: Clearwater Man Arrested For Assaulting Rep. Luna’s Campaign Manager
Shot In The Dark: Symbolic, Remember, Not On My Bingo Card, and Where Is The Fairness?
STUMP: Memento Mori – All Saints Day, Silly Predictors – Election 2024 Predictions From Absurd Sources, 
The Political Hat: Wrapping Up Early Voting In Nevada 2024
This Ain’t Hell: CENTCOM CG under investigation for shoving Airman, Morale Suppression Team, Away! Veterans group gets slammed for backing an Iowa House race candidate, No FOIA Results from Army, and Daniel Penny: Good Samaritan, or overdone chokehold?
Transterrestrial Musings: America’s Versailles, It Begins, The French Revolutionary Calendar, “Progressive” Ideas, and The Space Policy Stakes
Victory Girls: San Jose State Suspends Volleyball Coach Who Filed Title IX Suit Over Trans Player, Even Democrats Think The Democrats Deserve To Lose, and Joe Rogan Endorses Donald Trump For President
Watts Up With That: Alaska court rules climate change can’t justify giant habitat for seals, Climate Change Brings Record Breaking Threat To Health–Lancet, and Will “Green New Deal” Failures Elect Trump?
The Federalist: ‘This Man Stood Up’: Powerful Ad Reminds Voters Of All That Trump Has Survived, Notorious Wisconsin Election Official Is Ordered To Follow The Law, Why Veterans Really Hate Liz Cheney, Kamala Harris, And The Architects Of The War On Terror, The Media Made Sure This Election Was Never Going To Be Free Or Fair, and Exclusive: Texas, Georgia Election Data Shatters Democrats’ Voter ID Lies
Mark Steyn: In Long’s Shadow: Huey Long, Willie Stark and All the King’s Men, Wallowing in the Mire, It’s All in the Game, “Election” “Day” Minus Three, and “Election” “Day” Minus Two

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Category: Linkagery

Rule 5 Sunday: Pre-Coffee Lounging

Posted on | November 4, 2024 | No Comments

— compiled by Wombat-socho

Or maybe just not awake yet. This week’s appetizer is courtesy of Rule 5 Texan on Twitter.
Ceterum autem censeo Silicon Valley et Hamas delendam sunt.

ANIMAL MAGNETISM: Rule Five And Under The Bus She Goes Friday, and the Saturday Gingermageddon.

EBL: Strong Women For Trump, Saturday Night Girls With Guns, The Linda Lindas, Biden-Harris Halloween, Teri Garr RIP, “Witchcraft”, Uzumaki, Salem’s Lot, Canary Black, MAGA Madison Square Garden Rally, and Lioness Season 2

A VIEW FROM THE BEACH: Valentina Gallego, Fish Pic Friday – Steph Sirotzke, Thursday Tattoos, The Wednesday Wetness, Tuesday Tanlines, The Monday Morning Stimulus and Palm Sunday.

FLAPPR: Serious Matters & Unfolding Trends For November 1 

BACON TIME: Yes, I Will Have A Beer

Thanks to everyone for all the luscious links!

 

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Category: Rule 5

FMJRA 2.0: No Expansion This Year

Posted on | November 3, 2024 | No Comments

— compiled by Wombat-socho

Pete posted on the league Slack that nobody stepped up to take any of the four possible expansion teams, but a couple of the existing teams may get new owners since the existing owners have been excessively quiet lately. There’s also an AL team that wants to move to the NL, probably because of the designated hitter, which begins this year for us.
Put in six hours at the election balancing board yesterday, and most likely will be working Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday of this week taking care of straggling mail-in ballots. We get Tuesday off because the County Clerk’s office is going to be too busy with actual election day voting to supervise us, and frankly, that’s okay with me. I still have quite a bit of continuing education for tax season to take care of.
Ceterum autem censeo Silicon Valley et Hamas delendam sunt.

Meanwhile in the front office…

The Schadenfreude Smorgasbord
American Salient
First Street Journal
The Daley Gator
EBL
357 Magnum

It’s Classical Allusions Day
The Daley Gator
357 Magnum
EBL

FMJRA 2.0: Preparing for the Winter Meetings
Daybreak Bulletin
EBL
357 Magnum

Rule 5 Sunday: Coffee, Please
Animal Magnetism
EBL

Probably Not Wearing a MAGA Hat
The Daley Gator
EBL

In The Mailbox: 10.28.24
EBL
357 Magnum

BOOM! We Are So #Winning!
The Daley Gator
Flappr
EBL
357 Magnum

Can We Stay Sane a Few More Days? (Also: Has Trump Always Been Winning?)
EBL
357 Magnum

In The Mailbox: 10.31.24
EBL
357 Magnum

Vote Trump, and the Media Will Die
The Daley Gator
EBL
357 Magnum

In The Mailbox: 11.01.24 (Afternoon Edition)
EBL
357 Magnum

In The Mailbox: 11.01.24 (Evening Edition)
EBL
357 Magnum

Top linkers for the week ending November 1:

  1.  EBL (12)
  2.  357 Magnum (10)
  3.  The Daley Gator (5)

Thanks to everyone for all the links!

 

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Category: FMJRA Award

Election 2024: Be Prepared for Anything

Posted on | November 3, 2024 | No Comments

The old Scout motto has always been wise advice, and as we brace ourselves for Election Day — to be followed by Election Night, and then perhaps Election Week or even Election Month — we ought to psychologically prepare ourselves for all possible contingencies.

We have now entered that phase of the campaign where there is nothing to be learned by checking Real Clear Politics for the latest poll data. Every major pollster has already released their final numbers and whatever predictive value polls may have is already incorporated into our expectations. About a week ago, a solid source passed along word that the Trump campaign’s internal polling showed them leading in Pennsylvania by three points — just shy of the four-point lead they would consider “safe” — and that in general the Trump team is “cautiously optimistic” about the election. Despite what Byron York calls the “final torrent of BS” in the past week, probably nothing has happened to alter that calculus, mostly because early voting is running so far ahead of any previous election year. What should we make of this report?

With just three days until the election, former President Donald Trump’s campaign remains unsettled about his prospects in North Carolina, a Sun Belt state that he’s claimed in two consecutive presidential elections.
When asked why, a Trump campaign official put it bluntly.
“If there’s one state that could bite you in the a–, it’s North Carolina,” the official said.
At the same time, Vice President Kamala Harris’ team, which less than two weeks ago feared the Tar Heel State was “a little bit slipping away,” is now seeing it as “very much in play,” a senior campaign official said.
Their dueling outlooks emerged as both campaigns landed in North Carolina, with the candidates rallying voters in a margin-of-error contest that’s raising the stakes in every battleground. Of late, Trump has deviated off course and into states like Virginia and New Mexico in the final days of the campaign, declaring he could expand his map.
Yet he’s made a plan of returning to North Carolina each day until the election.

My first thought: Head fake.

For weeks, I’ve been repeating the obvious: If Trump wins Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, that’s it, he’s the next president, and the outcomes in the other battleground states — Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada — would be moot, in terms of the Electoral College arithmetic. Anybody can look at the polls and see how solid Trump looks in Georgia now, which leaves North Carolina and Pennsylvania. As I said before, Team Trump feels pretty good about Pennsylvania and so they are devoting extra attention to North Carolina, just to make sure they don’t suffer a surprise loss in a state where the public polls have shown the race much closer than Georgia. And this move has the added benefit of encouraging the Harris campaign also to devote time, money and energy to North Carolina — if Trump’s worried about it, maybe she’s got a chance there — which means less of their attention is available to Pennsylvania, the state that will almost certainly decide the election.

Although I have long despised Nate Silver, his recent criticism of “herding” by pollsters deserves consideration. Even while there is a 6-point spread between the “outliers” of national polls — WSJ has it Trump +3, while Morning Consult has it Harris +3 — the polls in most battleground states seem to be bunched up, as if predicting that Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, etc., will all be nearly tied. As I say, Trump’s looking strong in Georgia, but even there, a certain amount of “herding” seems to be happening, as if many pollsters are afraid of showing Trump ahead by more than a couple of points. The “herding” effect appears most evident in Pennsylvania, where pollsters seem reluctant to go out on a limb and say either Trump or Harris could win by more than two points. If it comes out 51%-48% either way, the polls will generally have underestimated the margin of victory, and several of them will be wrong about who wins, but none of them be off by more than a six-point margin, and the most wrong of them will be able to say they weren’t alone. Everybody’s cheating on the final exam.

But what if Pennsylvania turns into a comparative blowout? What if, instead of a one- or two-point margin, it opens up to a four- or five-point margin? What if it’s Trump 52% to Harris 47%, or vice-versa? In that case, the pollsters showing a two-point lead for the candidate who loses will be somewhat discredited, but not utterly disgraced, while the pollster who shows a one- or two-point lead for the ultimate winner will puff out his chest in pride of his vindication: “Nailed it!”

Given the problem of “herding,” is there any way we can discover auguries from these particular entails? Well, here’s just a tiny clue: In their poll published October 12, New York Times/Siena College had Harris +3 in Pennsylvania, leading 50% to 47%. The latest NYT/Siena poll came out this morning, and it’s Trump +1 — 48% to 47%.

The word for that is “YUGE.” First of all, it represents a net shift of 4 points toward Trump, and secondly, does anyone think the New York Times would publish its final poll showing Trump ahead in Pennsylvania — which everybody knows is the crucial battleground — if there was any chance of a Harris win there? No way. Stick a fork in her, she’s done.

If my interpretation of this is correct, it would explain why the Trump campaign has added extra stops in North Carolina — they’ve got Georgia and Pennsylvania locked up, and they just need to avoid a surprise in North Carolina to assure they’ve got 270 Electoral College votes. But then again, I could be completely wrong: “Be prepared.”

However this election turns out, I don’t think we’ll know the result on Tuesday night, and we might not know on Wednesday, either. “Too close to call” will be endlessly repeated by the TV talking heads, as they point to the results in various “bellwether” counties, talking about how many precincts have yet to report in Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Detroit, etc. Even if Trump were to ultimately win a popular-vote majority and run the table in the battleground states — maybe even flipping New Hampshire, Virginia or New Mexico into the “red” column — such an outcome wouldn’t be conclusive enough for the media to call it a win on Election Night. Therefore, no matter how optimistic we may be, we must psychologically brace ourselves for disappointment. Even if it’s four years of President Kamala Harris, we can cope with it, somehow.



 

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Category: Donald Trump, Election, Kamala Harris, North Carolina, Pennsylvania

Election Fraud: Democrat Firm Identified as Source of Suspicious Voter Registration Forms in Four Pennsylvania Counties

Posted on | November 2, 2024 | No Comments

Francisco Heredia

Before we get to the connection between this Pennsylvania story and Arizona politician Francisco Heredia, let me first bring you up-to-date on how the story unfolded over the past several days:

Lancaster County District Attorney Heather Adams provided an update on Wednesday on her office’s investigation of approximately 2,500 fraudulent voter registration applications.
Adams said Lancaster County Detectives are continuing to review suspected fraudulent applications to determine who participated in completing and providing the fraudulent applications. . . .
Adams said her office believes that the fraudulent voter registrations are connected to large-scale canvassing operations for voter registrations dating back to June.
Election workers noticed irregularities while preparing to process the applications and immediately notified Adams’ office.
At a press conference held last week with the Elections Board, Adams announced that her investigators immediately found indicators of fraud, including incorrect and non-existent addresses, false personal identification information, as well as false names and incorrect social security information.
In other cases, Adams said, applications contained accurate voter identification information, but the application was determined to be forged.
Lancaster County Detectives worked through the weekend to review applications that were suspicious or unable to be confirmed by the voter registration office, Adams said.
In addition to finding hundreds of fraudulent voter applications, hundreds more were unable to be verified by detectives, meaning that none of the identification information provided on the application was able to be located (in any police or public source databases) and therefore unable to be verified.

In addition to Lancaster County, similar bogus registration forms were reported in York, Monroe and Berks counties. These were not, as some mistakenly said, fake ballots, but rather voter registration forms which county officials detected as suspicious. Of course, when Donald Trump posted a social media rant about it, all the liberal news media jumped up to accuse him of spreading “misinformation.”

OK, but . . . here’s the real issue: We only know about these fraudulent registration forms because county officials caught them. Do you think election officials in Philadelphia are as scrupulous in processing registrations? If thousands of bogus applications were filed in Philadelphia, would officials catch them? Would the Philadelphia DA hold a press conference to announce an investigation? Doubtful. So while we know about dubious registration forms in four Republican-leaning counties, we’ve got no idea how many fake voters there might be on the rolls in Philadelphia, but I’ve got a hunch the number isn’t a small one.

Now, for the connection to Francisco Heredia:

An Arizona-based consulting firm that has taken a considerable amount of cash from national Democrats is under investigation for allegedly submitting fraudulent voter registration forms in Pennsylvania.
The Monroe County Board of Elections in Pennsylvania determined that several voter registration applications and mail-in ballot requests are fraudulent because they were not authorized by the people named on the documents, with at least one of the individuals in question being deceased, District Attorney Mike Mancuso announced on Wednesday. A subsidiary of FieldCorps, an Arizona-based consulting firm, was responsible for submitting the forms in question, according to Mancuso. FieldCorps has received hundreds of thousands of dollars from Democratic political committees since 2018 for work such as get-out-the-vote operations and canvassing services, campaign finance records show.
Among the political organizations that paid out a total of roughly $430,000 to FieldCorps since 2018 are the Arizona Democratic Party, Mike Bloomberg’s 2020 presidential campaign and Democratic Arizona Rep. Greg Stanton, according to campaign finance filings.
York County, also located in Pennsylvania, is investigating forms submitted by the FieldCorps subsidiary, Greg Monskie, the county’s chief clerk, confirmed to the Daily Caller News Foundation. He disclosed that the forms were submitted on behalf of the Everybody Votes campaign. Of the 3,087 ballots the county received as part of a bulk delivery, only 47% were verified as legitimate, with the remainder either having incomplete information or being declined pending further review, according to a county press release.
The Everybody Votes campaign is a national left-of-center voter registration operation that received tens of millions in funding from the Soros family’s philanthropy network and Arabella Advisors‘ Democratic-aligned dark money network, according to public records. The organization focuses on turning out demographics that tend to support the Democratic Party. Everybody Votes did not immediately respond to the Daily Caller News Foundation’s request for comment.
Lancaster County, again in Pennsylvania, is also investigating potentially fraudulent registration materials from a “third-party organization” after receiving approximately 2,500 applications in two waves, Fox News Digital reported. It is unclear if FieldCorps submitted these materials as well.
FieldCorps’ ties to liberal organizations go even deeper.
The firm is owned by Francisco Heredia, a longtime progressive activist. Heredia, currently the vice mayor of Mesa, Arizona, was previously the national field director of Mi Familia Vota, a group that supports amnesty for illegal immigrants and opposes former President Donald Trump. Mi Familia Vota, like Everybody Votes, has also received funding from the Soros family and the Arabella Advisors network. Heredia has endorsed Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego in Arizona’s upcoming Senate election as well.

So, non-profits funded by Soros hire a consulting firm owned by “a longtime progressive activist” to register voters in Pennsylvania and — just coincidentally — thousands of those registrations turn out to be fraudulent. But if you dare say Democrats are trying to steal the election, why, you’re a right-wing conspiracy theorist spreading misinformation!

Something nobody ever seems to ask: Whence this recent mania about the urgent need to register new voters? Why are tax-exempt “philanthropic” organizations spending money on such efforts? It’s not difficult to register to vote. Most people get registered automatically when they sign up for their driver’s license, but otherwise, anybody can do a quick Google search to locate the county election office and go fill out a registration form. Doesn’t cost anything, and only takes a few minutes. And yet, for some reason, you have these organizations running around doing these voter-registration drives — for whom? Who are all these would-be voters who can’t be bothered to go down to the county courthouse or whevever local voter registration normally takes place?

Never an explanation for this, because nobody even asks. We’re just supposed to take it for granted that there are all these people out there who want to vote, but for some reason, never registered to vote. And therefore George Soros pours out money like water to pay for voter registration projects that seem to be registering “voters” who don’t actually exist. But there’s nothing suspicious about this.



 

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Category: Corruption, Democrats, Election, Pennsylvania

In The Mailbox: 11.01.24 (Evening Edition)

Posted on | November 2, 2024 | No Comments

— compiled by Wombat-socho

Usual weekend deadlines for the usual weekend posts, even if I do have to work with the election board tomorrow.
A Farewell To Horror
Ceterum autem censeo Silicon Valley et Hamas delendam sunt.

OVER THE TRANSOM
357 Magnum: When the Press Hate Freedom of the Press
EBL: Yankees Meltdown
Twitchy: Star Wars Author Has Epic Response To Claims Star Wars Is Progressive, Powerful Closing Message From The Trump Campaign – All We Have To Do Is Vote! and SJSU’s Own Assistant Volleyball Coach Files Title IX Complaint Over Trans Nonsense
Louder With Crowder: JD Vance unloads on hacks like Bill Gates “getting rich off climate change and public health”
Vox Popoli: Dedollarization Proceeds, That Would Wake You, You Know It’s Going Well, Strategic Dissipation, and Men are Reading…of Rome
According To Hoyt: A Tide of Fraud, Assumptions and Projections, and Burn The Boats
Monster Hunter Nation:  An Unexpected Hero, also, Graveyard of Demons Up for Preorder!
Defending The Wood Perilous: Gypsy Princess Effie’s Diary Entry #17
Stoic Observations: Trolley Dodgers

RIPPED FROM THE HEADLINES
Adam Piggott: Forgiveness?
American Conservative: The Next President Needs a Foreign Policy Reality Check , Harris and Walz Declare War on America, and Do I Look Like a Russian Propagandist?
American Greatness: White House Press Office Doctored Transcript of Joe Biden Calling Trump Supporters ‘Garbage’ Over Stenographer’s Objections, Douglas Emhoff and the Double Standards of the #Metoo Movement, Trump’s Momentum vs. Kamala the Phony, More States Join Fight Against Biden-Harris Lawsuit Preventing Removal of Non-citizen Voters, and America’s Adversaries are Rooting for Kamala Harris
American Thinker: The Un-American Socialist Dream, also, Does Georgia’s Algorithm-Assisted Massive Documented Election Fraud Rise to the Level of a Treasonous Coup d’État?
Animal Magnetism: Goodbye, Blue Monday, Animal’s Daily Early Voting News, Animal’s Hump Day News, Animal’s Red Thursday News, and Rule Five And Under The Bus She Goes Friday
Babalu Blog: Milei fires his Foreign Minister after she votes against US Cuba embargo at UN, Cubans whose homes were damaged or destroyed by hurricane Oscar will have to buy rebuilding supplies from government, Norway sends $400,000 to Cuba so its dictatorship can sell relief supplies to hurricane victims, and More major blackouts loom in Cuba, says energy minister
BattleSwarm: Texas Buys More Land To Build Border Wall, Don’t Stick Your Dick In Commie, Inside Ukraine’s Drone Units, Insane Clown Posse Endorses Harris, and LinkSwarm For November 1
Behind The Black: European Commission finally awards contract to build its government Starlink-type constellation, Hypersonic engine manufacturer Reaction Engines goes bankrupt, North Korea launches test ballistic missile for the 1st time in almost a year, Scientists use Hubble and Webb to confirm there are as yet no planets forming in Vega’s accretion disk, and Boeing finally shuts down its DEI division
Cafe Hayek: Are Americans Today Enduring Unprecedented Economic Disruption? More on Tariffs and 19th-Century American Industrialization, Entrepreneurship, Innovation, and Industrial Policy, Phil Gramm and I Respond to Robert Lighthizer, and Are American Living Standards in Decline?
CDR Salamander: Fullbore Friday
Chicago Boyz: Why Maricopa Matters, Halloween, Candy, and Confiscatory Fiscal Policy, and Justice to Monitor Voting Rights Compliance in Swing States
Da Tech Guy: All Saints Day and 8 Easy Plenary Indulgence Chances, The most appalling political horror story you will ever read, The Left’s #Election2024 Steal or No Steal Conundrum, My Response to Jeff Bezos on the Credibility of the Washington Post, and Five Assorted Thoughts Expressed via Tweets & Replies Under the Fedora
Dana Loesch: The 2024 Election Shenanigans Have Begun, 
Don Surber: Biden did her in
First Street Journal: He will do it again, There’s no threat quite like an empty threat, and I voted!
Gates Of Vienna: There’s No Braking the Budget, Another Day, Another Culture-Enriching Gang Rape in Turin, Ammonia on my Mind, A Cornucopia of October Cultural Enrichment, and Will the AfD be Prosecuted for Their Campaign Video?
The Geller Report: Kentucky Voting Machines REFUSING to Let Voters Select Donald Trump’s Name, Automatically Selecting Kamala Harris Instead, also, Judge Rules Democrat Secretary of State MUST Immediately Release the List of 218,000 Voters With No Proof of US Citizenship
Hollywood In Toto: Discarded Breakfast of Champions Gets a Second Chance, Comedians Against Comedy: Goldberg, Colbert, Maron and More, and PolitiFact Challenges Comic for Fake Rogan-Harris Video
The Lid: Latest Jobs Report a MASSIVE Miss, White House Illegally Edits Biden’s Republicans are ‘Garbage’ Quote in Official Records, Kamala Harris Campaign Donated Hundreds of Thousands to Defund the Police Groups, and JEWS: VOTE FOR TRUMP!
Legal Insurrection: R.I.P. – Jazz Shaw, Blogger for Hot Air, a Gentleman and a Friend, Liz Cheney Threat Hoax: Media “Just Outright Lying” And “Just Making Stuff Up”, Private Sector Lost 28,000 Jobs in October 2024, Polling Guru Nate Silver Accuses Pollsters of Cheating, Herding to Make Race Appear Tight, and PA Fraudulent Voter Forms Connected to Company Linked to Democrats
Nebraska Energy Observer: Skipping Across the Pond, I did the research, A Week to Go, What??? What was that??? and Scattershot Friday
Outkick: Greg Sankey Says SEC To Fine And Suspend Coaches For Obvious Faking Of Injuries; Full Memo Obtained, Army Unveils The Coolest Helmets In College Football, Aaron Rodgers Seems To Take Shot At LeBron James’ Kamala Harris Endorsement, The Los Angeles Dodgers Had To Wait 36 Years For A World Series Parade. Today’s Made Up For Lost Time, and Rep. Nancy Mace’s Costume Was A Talker, FSU Cowgirl Jenn Sterger Is A Doll & Giving Up Sex To Win The Election
Power Line: Behind deep garbage, Hugh Hewitt takes a hike, The Stenographers Object, and Thoughts from the ammo line
Shark Tank: Rick Scott’s Team Calls Hillary’s Florida Trip “Fantastic News”
Shot In The Dark: Remembering What Pepperidge Farm Doesn’t, Never Forget, The Cycle, Heavy Is The Crown, and Hey Mankato!
The Political Hat: Techniques of Propaganda, Make Mine Freedom, Our Manichean Political World, Happy Halloween! (2024), and Free to Choose Friday, Revisited (Part 10)
This Ain’t Hell: Valor Friday, Recruit Medical Waivers Waived, Washington Post: Donald Trump as the military’s ‘enemy from within’, Boeing again, and Where is his Chain of Command?
Transterrestrial Musings: After The Election, Thoughts On Social Trust, DEI at Boeing, and Safety Insanity
Victory Girls: The Firing Squad LIE About Donald Trump And Liz Cheney
Watts Up With That: Grid Companies Bracing For Power Cuts, The Better Path In Energy, Rising Electricity Rates under Biden (Texas wholesale up 200%), and Ed Miliband’s Net Zero Department Given 22% More Cash to Waste on Green Energy Unicorns
The Federalist: If Trump Wins, He Should Arrest And Prosecute Jimmy Kimmel, Leftist Group Threatens Michigan Voters: ‘We Will Be Reviewing’ Your Voting Record, Why The Biden-Harris Administration’s Attempt To Keep Noncitizens On Virginia’s Voter Rolls Was Legally Ridiculous, Leftist Groups Turn To Threats To Get Out The Vote, and What’s Behind Kamala Harris’ Connection To A Mass Murdering Cult Leader?
Mark Steyn: Halloween Horrors, A Modification in the Official Lie, Hope Your Beeper Doesn’t Go Off, Live Around the Planet – Closing Garbage, and Pure Spirits: The Uninvited and the Ghost Story

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Graveyard of Demons
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