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Second Manassas in Kursk Oblast?

Posted on | August 9, 2024 | Comments Off on Second Manassas in Kursk Oblast?

Oktyabr’skoe is a Russian village about five miles east of Rylsk, and about 25 miles north of the border with Ukraine. Thursday night, Ukraine hit a Russian truck convoy on the E38 highway in Oktyabr’skoe, possibly wiping out an entire battalion of reinforcements being sent to counter a Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk Oblast. Ukraine’s forces crossed the border Tuesday near the Russian town of Sudzha, and by Thursday were reportedly approaching Korenevo, about 20 miles to the northwest of Sudzha and 12 miles south of Oktyabr’skoe. While there is incomplete information about what happened at Oktyabr’skoe, it has been suggested that the Russian convoy was on its way to reinforce Korenevo, and was hit by rockets from a U.S.-supplied HIMARS battery. HIMARS has an extensive range, so it’s likely that the rocket salvo was fired from Ukrainian positions near Korenevo. Nevertheless, (a) this means the E38 east of Rylsk is effectively off-limits for Russia to send troops or supplies to the front, and (b) the Russians in Korevnevo are going to have to make do without that battalion the Ukrainians just wiped out.

Destroyed trucks in the Russian convoy

It has been elsewhere been reported that Ukrainian forces are also threatening Lgov, a crossroads town about 25 miles east of Rylsk, so that Russia is dealing with a multi-pronged attack in the region.

All in all, I’m reminded of how Stonewall Jackson opened the Second Manassas campaign by making a flank march and falling on Pope’s supply depot at Manassas Junction. This forced Pope to retreat from the Rappahannock, and to send forces to find Jackson and bring him to battle. Jackson proved elusive, however, and hid his corps near Sudley Springs on the road between Warrenton and Centreville. The next afternoon, when a Union brigade came marching past, Jackson stuck them hard and soon had Pope’s entire army converge on his front. What Pope didn’t know was that Lee had Longstreet’s corp en route to join Jackson, and when Longstreet was finally ready to attack, Pope army was wrecked and beat a hasty retreat back toward Washington.

Similary, the surprise Ukrainian attack into Russia’s weakly defended Kursk Oblast has thrown the Russians completely off-balance. The Ukrainians have so far encountered only light resistance from local defense forces, and when Russia tried to move regular army reinforcements into the region, they got hammered. The Russians have no idea of what the Ukrainians are planning to do next — will they make a lunge toward Kursk city or, perhaps, make a thrust eastward from Sudzha? Like Jackson after raiding Manassas Junction, the Ukrainian forces can sit and wait to see what the Russians send after them, and strike those reinforcements the way they did at Oktyabr’skoe.

Everything that Russia sends to deal with the incursion in Kursk will be subtracted from the forces available in the Donbas region and elsewhere, so that as a diversion, the Kursk campaign doesn’t need to make any major territorial conquests in order to succeed from a strategic perspective. Wisely, the Ukrainians have said nothing about what their intentions or objectives are, but some commentators have suggested that they may have 25,000 or so troops committed to this adventure, which would be plenty enough to wreak havoc in the Russian interior unless and until the Russians can bring sufficient forces into the theatre to force a Ukrainian retreat. And every time Russia tries to move troops along those roads, they risk another Oktyabr’skoe-style catastrophe.

Ukraine’s counter-offensive has taken the strategic initiative away from Russia. There’s no telling how long this Kursk incursion will continue, but Russia’s likely to suffer serious losses while it lasts.



 

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Category: Russia, Ukraine

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