The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

The Evidently Obligatory ‘How Many House Seats Will the GOP Win?’ Post

Short answer: A lot fewer than they could have, if the NRCC had a freaking clue. Really. Ace of Spades interrogates Jay Cost about the likelihood of Republican gains on the high side of 60, which I consider insanely optimistic, given the face-palming incompetence of the NRCC. But first the good news from Jay Cost: […]

To Repeat: Beware of Polls!

Sunday morning, I noted Donald Douglas’s dissection of an L.A. Times poll that appears skewed toward Democrats.  Now, Tina Hemond gets inside the numbers in last week’s poll that showed Barney Frank leading by 12 points over Sean Bielat and argues that, in fact, the race in MA-4 is a statistical dead heat. Of course, we […]

Beware of Polls!

I get tired of saying this, but we can’t let polls do our thinking for us. A Los Angeles Times poll appears to have oversampled Democrats, as Professor Donald Douglas explains at American Power. Disinformation is the new objectivity.

Latest Polls Show Republicans Now Leading Key House Races in MD-1, FL-22

In Maryland’s 1st District, Republican Andy Harris leads freshman Democrat Rep. Frank Kratovil by 11 points, according to a new poll by Monmouth University, even though the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has spent more than $1 million to help Kratovil. Meanwhile, in Florida’s 22nd District, Republican Allen West appears to have gained the upper hand against second-term […]

Please Take Your Poll Numbers and Stick Them Where the Sun Don’t Shine

Having previously discussed combat psychology, let me extend the discussion by saying this: Stop telling me about damned poll numbers! One of the basic things about fighting is, once the fight starts, you forget about the odds of victory. If the odds are in your favor, paying too much attention to poll numbers will only encourage hubristic overconfidence. […]

Brown Clown Going Down: ‘Sorry Charlie’ Crist Isn’t Tanned, He’s Toast in Florida

The latest poll tells the sad tale for Mr. RINO-No-More: A statewide poll released Saturday night shows Republican Marco Rubio building on his lead over independent challenger Charlie Crist, while Democrat Kendrick Meek appears to be closing in on Crist in the closely watched contest. Rubio is favored by 40 percent of likely voters, up from 38 […]

Polls Are Not Predictions

Paul Mirengoff of Powerline — a nice guy, whom I’ve met a few times — defends himself against Mark Levin’s criticism over the Delaware GOP Senate primary. Rather than to get into the middle of that, let me pull out a few phrases from Mirengoff’s post as illustrative of a more general dispute: I then argued that, […]

WARNING: Polls Are Not Campaigns

Instapundit links Fisherville Mike’s caution against over-optimism turning into apathy for Republicans. Meanwhile, Karl Rove is trying to forecast the relationship between “generic ballot” polls and the likely GOP gains in November. WARNING! WARNING! WARNING! If all you’re doing is following the national polls — Obama’s numbers down, Republican numbers up — you are seriously […]

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