The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

Glenn Reynolds Is Wrong

Posted on | August 17, 2011 | 17 Comments

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MY MONEY’S ON SANTORUM: Pawlenty’s Gone, So Who’ll Be The Next Republican To Fold?

Having covered Rick Santorum in Iowa, and having met his supporters, I know that he’s nowhere near dropping out. As he told me after our interview Saturday in Ames, they’ve run their entire campaign so far on about $600,000 in contributions and, according to Santorum’s staff, their online donations have increased since last Thursday’s debate. Here’s the debate exchange between Santorum and Ron Paul about Iran:

The thing about that is, both Santorum and Paul “won” that exchange in the eyes of their own supporters. And if Santorum’s hard-core supporters are not nearly as numerous or as vocal as Paul’s famously fanatical fans, they are still in a position to keep Santorum’s low-budget campaign going with contributions of $20, $50, $100. Santorum has got a solid base of support among pro-life Catholics, who are likely to continue making small donations regularly well into next year, because they feel it is very important to have “their guy” on the debate stage — and on the ballot — so that he can keep voicing their views. Those supporters were cheering when Santorum didn’t flinch on a tough abortion question:

Finishing fourth in the Ames Straw Poll with 1,657 votes, Santorum spent a lot less per vote than did Bachmann, whose ads were all over Iowa TV in the two weeks leading up to the straw poll, while Santorum wasn’t advertising at all. Steve Ertelt of LifeNews.com says “with the Republican presidential race partly becoming an expectations game, Santorum gets a boost by performing much better than expected.”

Jennifer Rubin featured Santorum today in the Washington Post, and the Santorum campaign released a video touting their fourth-place straw-poll finish as evidence of gathering momentum:

So any expectation that Santorum will quit is clearly mistaken. If I were asked which candidate will drop out next, I’d say Newt Gingrich. He has never recovered from his million-dollar Tiffany’s bill, his Aegean cruise and his mass staff exodus, and likely never will.


Comments

  • Anonymous

    It certainly is nice to see people stand on principle.  Ron Paul is wrong on Foreign Policy, but he at least means what he says.  Santorum has strong pro-life credentials and certainly didn’t weasel around the questions.  One thing I think almost everyone in this country–except for the political class in DC–is sick to death of is “nuanced” answers (lies and obfuscation) when asked a direct question, a la Barack Obama.

  • http://profiles.google.com/betoochoa78722 Beto Ochoa

    I think Santorum will stay until the bitter end because he is getting face time and a better perks and tip jar rate than Glenn Reynolds. It will be more about some other “next time” like another Senate run or Governor.
    Just one fly in his ointment, what happens when school starts?
    My money would be on Gingrich but I suspect he has a foreign money stream. McCotter is the one.

  • http://thepagantemple.blogspot.com/ ThePaganTemple

    It depends on where he places in the first few contests and how divided the victories are. If one candidate or another takes three our of the first four or five contests, then he and a lot of others will drop out. If one wins one, another wins one, yet another wins etc., then it becomes a matter of how well the others are doing. Under that scenario if Santorum stays at a consistent third place or a close fourth, he’ll probably stay in until after Super Tuesday.

  • http://zillablog.marezilla.com Zilla of the Resistance

     It’s not just the Social Conservative supporters who will stand by him all the way for as long as he is running, I can tell you of at least one anti-jihad anti-sharia voter who considers him the very best choice.

  • http://twitter.com/JD777 JD777

    Two comments:

    You mean Palin beats another primary candidate without saying one bad thing or lifting a finger?

    Where will Santorum’s supporters go eventually?

  • Joe

    Gingrich.

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  • http://pointofagun.blogspot.com/ Dave C

    Newt or McCotter will drop out (sorry Smitty). 

  • http://theheartlander.wordpress.com/ heartlander

    Another thing that poisons Gingrich, at least in my mind, was his condemnation of Paul Ryan’s Path to Prosperity.

  • http://www.leftbankofthecharles.com Charles

    Gingrich isn’t dropping out until he is thrown out. It’s clear his sole purpose in running is to participate in the debates.

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/EU5DQWQTTHTPO4A4ZYSL3AAV2U Adjoran

    Newt isn’t going anywhere, he uses the stage to build book sales and future speaking tours.  Now he’s taking a “campaign trip” to Hawaii for the crucial primary there, but also plans to “take off a few days” to celebrate his anniversary with Callista.

    McCotter bought space at Ames and got nothing.  He will get nothing.  Even his “Red Eye” fans know he’s a union patsy, and even if he is the most conservative guy on every other issue, there will be no toleration for Obama’s thugs allowed on our side.

    So I vote McCotter, but Huntsman has also made it clear he doesn’t intend to blow much of his own money on his little ego trip, and no one who wrote such a butt-kissing note to Obama as he did will ever be the Republican nominee (not now, not ever), so he’s probably not far behind.

    As far as Johnson, Roemer, and whoever the other guy is, I don’t know how to count them.  Can they really drop out if they haven’t been actually running?  If an idiot runs in the primaries and nobody notices, does he make a sound?

    Judges?

  • Anonymous

    Romney.

    Someone had to say it.

  • TR

    Funny that Ricky’s Political Advisors have chosen to use Sarah Palin’s rallying call (Game On) from Wisconsin.  Next thing you know Rick is gonna be yelling, “Fight like a girl” LOL.  BTW, did not see Rick at Wisconsin?  and who was that establishment guy he chose to support against Nikki Haley? meh, who cares?  What’s an 18% loss as an incumbent a purple state like PA anyway.  People are talking about Ricky now, that’s all that matters, right?

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  • http://thepagantemple.blogspot.com/ ThePaganTemple

    I thought I was the only person outside Louisiana who even knew who Buddy Roehmer was let alone that he was “running” for President. Or has he actually declared yet? I don’t even know that much. He obviously won’t be a factor, or even an asterisk. Johnson can’t even get enough support to be included in the debates. Neither can or will McCotter. Very few if any of Paul’s supporters would vote for anybody else (except maybe Johnson) if Paul wasn’t there, so it doesn’t matter how long he stays in, he still won’t be a factor. Herman Cain is running for Treasury Secretary, or maybe the next Fed Reserve Chairman. Look for him to get out as soon as there’s a likely nominee, and give that person a hearty endorsement, and maybe tons of free pizza for their staff. Gingrich at this stage of the game is comic relief. He might as well put on a Raggedy-Andy wig and squirt reporters in the face with a fake flower pinned to his lapel.

    Next up is Santorum, who since he did so well at Ames is trying to be all things to all people and is in essence sabotaging his own best efforts. He’s decided he’s going to be the traditional Republican candidate AND Tea Party candidate at the same time. Good luck with that Ricky, its not going to fly long term.

    That leaves three viable candidates. Bachmann has somebody, I don’t know who, who is either stupid as fuck or purposely trying to sabotage her campaign from the inside. Who knows, maybe that person is her. But if she don’t get a handle on it, whoever or whatever it is, she won’t make it past Iowa.

    Perry is going to be taking all kinds of salvos from the Bushes on behalf of Romney (or maybe Paul Ryan if the Bushies convince him to get in), and in fact its already started from Karl Rove. How it turns out just depends on how Perry adapts and reacts. If he shows strength and fire, and humor, it will backfire on the RINO contingent. If he gives in, caves under the pressure, Romney will be the ultimate beneficiary, which is as they intend. Unfortunately, it might split the party.

    Enter Palin. Maybe.

  • Anonymous

    Linked: http://teresamerica.blogspot.com/2011/08/stacy-mccain-is-right-rick-santorum.html

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