The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

DailyKos Poll Puts McCain Over Hayworth

Posted on | April 2, 2010 | 16 Comments

by Smitty (via Lucianne)

The Daily Caller reports that a DailyKos poll puts McCain over Hayworth in the Arizona Republican Senate Primary race. The lack of detail makes the entire exercise sketchy, and the final DC quotation even moreso:

The liberal site put it this way: “The bottom line? The Democrats become competitive, if Hayworth somehow manages to score a victory in the GOP primary.”

Others, seeing McCain’s bona RINO fides, might consider the Dem’s position a win-win at the primary stage. Whoever the Dems field has to face Barbara Espinosa, to which this blog opines: it hurts to be the Dem.

UPDATE (RSM): OK, via Real Clear Politics I’ve found the DKos poll, and the numbers are:

McCain 52%, Hayworth 35%

This result is buried among a slew of hypothetical fall matchups, all of which show either Republican leading any of four possible Democrats candidates — Bruce Babbitt, Gabrielle Giffords, Rodney Glassman and Nan Stockholm Walden. The other interesting result is that 46% of those polled have an unfavorable opinion of John McCain, compared to 42% unfavorable for J.D. Hayworth.

The DKos/Research 2000 poll follows a Rasmussen Reports poll two weeks ago that showed McCain’s lead over Hayworth had eroded to 7 points (48-41) and I don’t know that the two surveys can be compared. R2000 surveyed 400 GOP primary voters, whereas Rasmussen sampled 541 and there are enough other differences in methodology that it might be apples and oranges.

The unfortunate tendency to over-interpret public polling — to grab the latest result and shout, “Eureka!” — is something that all pollsters caution against. That is especially true when you’re polling several months ahead of the election. The Arizona primary is not until Aug. 24, and the general election is not until Nov. 2, and the question of who people would vote for “if the election were held today” is a hypothetical that is not — repeat, is not — a prediction of what will actually happen on Election Day.

For more about the Hayworth campaign, you can read my American Spectator column, “Scorched Earth in Arizona.”

Category: Barbara Espinosa, John McCain, Republicans

Comments

16 Responses to “DailyKos Poll Puts McCain Over Hayworth”

  1. Cousin Sam
    April 3rd, 2010 @ 3:23 am

    “The Daily Caller reports that a DailyKos poll puts Hayworth over McCain in the Arizona Republican Senate Primary race.”

    I think you said that backwards, the title is correct.

  2. Cousin Sam
    April 2nd, 2010 @ 10:23 pm

    “The Daily Caller reports that a DailyKos poll puts Hayworth over McCain in the Arizona Republican Senate Primary race.”

    I think you said that backwards, the title is correct.

  3. Cousin Sam
    April 3rd, 2010 @ 3:25 am

    Don’t go getting my hopes up like that, teasing is cruel!

  4. Cousin Sam
    April 2nd, 2010 @ 10:25 pm

    Don’t go getting my hopes up like that, teasing is cruel!

  5. proof
    April 3rd, 2010 @ 3:37 am

    Gosh! A poll taken by leftists, primarily, one might presume among leftists, and the conservative in the race fares poorly?

    Pictures at eleven!!!

  6. proof
    April 2nd, 2010 @ 10:37 pm

    Gosh! A poll taken by leftists, primarily, one might presume among leftists, and the conservative in the race fares poorly?

    Pictures at eleven!!!

  7. Cousin Sam
    April 3rd, 2010 @ 4:24 am

    It’s true, Proof! How dare you doubt it?! In other breaking news, Huffington Post poll shows Obama’s approval numbers at 105%.

  8. Cousin Sam
    April 2nd, 2010 @ 11:24 pm

    It’s true, Proof! How dare you doubt it?! In other breaking news, Huffington Post poll shows Obama’s approval numbers at 105%.

  9. Estragon
    April 3rd, 2010 @ 8:35 am

    Rasmussen’s poll a month ago put it McCain 48 – Hayworth 41 with a 4% MOE. The AZ Republic reported this as a “statistical tie,” which is true at one extreme end of the MOE curve. The opposite end would be McCain 52 – Hayworth 37, which is just the Research 2000/Kos poll found.

    A more sober judgment would be to split the difference until another poll is taken, and assume it’s 50-39 McCain. It is certainly trouble for McCain to have only the slightest cushion against a guy who has shown himself a loose cannon, discussed “Birther” crap seriously on his radio show for months, blew a safe GOP House seat as the incumbent, was one of a handful of Abramoff beneficiaries who refused to return the money, and paid his wife the equivalent of 25% of the total donations to his PAC.

    Espinosa’s close relationship with Hayworth notwithstanding, his own propensity for running off at the mouth is likely to sink his chances if his questionable ethical and electoral history does not.

  10. Estragon
    April 3rd, 2010 @ 3:35 am

    Rasmussen’s poll a month ago put it McCain 48 – Hayworth 41 with a 4% MOE. The AZ Republic reported this as a “statistical tie,” which is true at one extreme end of the MOE curve. The opposite end would be McCain 52 – Hayworth 37, which is just the Research 2000/Kos poll found.

    A more sober judgment would be to split the difference until another poll is taken, and assume it’s 50-39 McCain. It is certainly trouble for McCain to have only the slightest cushion against a guy who has shown himself a loose cannon, discussed “Birther” crap seriously on his radio show for months, blew a safe GOP House seat as the incumbent, was one of a handful of Abramoff beneficiaries who refused to return the money, and paid his wife the equivalent of 25% of the total donations to his PAC.

    Espinosa’s close relationship with Hayworth notwithstanding, his own propensity for running off at the mouth is likely to sink his chances if his questionable ethical and electoral history does not.

  11. Dave C
    April 3rd, 2010 @ 1:17 pm

    Bruce Babbit is running? He’s the environmental wacko who spend his time as Sec. of the Interior knocking down damns and (I believe, though my memory may be a bit fuzzy) put a ban on the Boy Scouts Of America for camping in any of the National Parks because of their policy on not allowing gay Scout Masters.

    For a family who’s fortune was made selling cars (Babbit Ford, etc.) he’s kind of a black sheep.

  12. Dave C
    April 3rd, 2010 @ 8:17 am

    Bruce Babbit is running? He’s the environmental wacko who spend his time as Sec. of the Interior knocking down damns and (I believe, though my memory may be a bit fuzzy) put a ban on the Boy Scouts Of America for camping in any of the National Parks because of their policy on not allowing gay Scout Masters.

    For a family who’s fortune was made selling cars (Babbit Ford, etc.) he’s kind of a black sheep.

  13. Estragon
    April 4th, 2010 @ 8:52 am

    Wow, in Stacy’s Spectator piece, Hayworth claims McCain is attacking him with a “scorched earth policy.” That’s outrageous! Especially since J.D. has been nothing but polite and respectful about McCain and run a completely positive campaign so far . . . oh, wait a minute!

    If he’s whiny now, wait until clips from his radio show start popping up! If McCain doesn’t air them, the Democrat will, and Hayworth will come off as a first-class kook. But only because the clips will be taken out of context: in reality he’s a second-class kook at best.

    Got Abramoff cash?

  14. Estragon
    April 4th, 2010 @ 3:52 am

    Wow, in Stacy’s Spectator piece, Hayworth claims McCain is attacking him with a “scorched earth policy.” That’s outrageous! Especially since J.D. has been nothing but polite and respectful about McCain and run a completely positive campaign so far . . . oh, wait a minute!

    If he’s whiny now, wait until clips from his radio show start popping up! If McCain doesn’t air them, the Democrat will, and Hayworth will come off as a first-class kook. But only because the clips will be taken out of context: in reality he’s a second-class kook at best.

    Got Abramoff cash?

  15. Estragon
    April 4th, 2010 @ 9:01 am

    Dave C ~ Yeah, that’s the guy. Babbitt was elected Governor statewide three times, and has always been a popular figure in Arizona for whatever reasons. It’s been floated – and not denied – both that he is considering a run and that he would accept a draft if no candidate declares. The first rumor helps keep others out of the race, because his national stature would ensure lots of campaign money, while the second leaves open the option of him appearing above politics altogether, being called, like Cincinnatus from the fields, to aid his country in time of dire need.

    Excuse me, I have to go vomit now.

  16. Estragon
    April 4th, 2010 @ 4:01 am

    Dave C ~ Yeah, that’s the guy. Babbitt was elected Governor statewide three times, and has always been a popular figure in Arizona for whatever reasons. It’s been floated – and not denied – both that he is considering a run and that he would accept a draft if no candidate declares. The first rumor helps keep others out of the race, because his national stature would ensure lots of campaign money, while the second leaves open the option of him appearing above politics altogether, being called, like Cincinnatus from the fields, to aid his country in time of dire need.

    Excuse me, I have to go vomit now.