Strictly As A Thought Experiment

Posted on | October 15, 2011 | 95 Comments

by Smitty

Say there was a dynamic candidate with a, call it ‘reasonable’, shot at a major party nomination.

Say that candidate got the impression that a fix was in already for that nomination, and all of the debates and polls and flesh pressing were really just so much dog and pony.

Say that candidate mounted a third party run.

What is the over-under on head ‘splosions among the Ruling Class Overlords?

Category: Uncategorized

Comments

95 Responses to “Strictly As A Thought Experiment”

Anonymous
October 15th, 2011 @ 8:59 am

I changed my label from Republican to NPA after McCain got the nomination in the FL primary. Haven’t looked back.

Sometimes, the Republican party expresses Conservative ideas, sometimes not. Democratic party NEVER does.
Cube
October 15th, 2011 @ 9:08 am

I was sure this certain dynamic candidate was running , said so here and it turned out I was wrong. So what do I know? But I will say this: If it turns out that someone tried to game the system to keep Sarah Palin out, I think they will ultimately regret that move just as much as the Alaska anklebiters and other progs were kicking themselves for forcing her out of the governors office after the 2010 elections. That one didn’t work out very well for the progs and this one likely won’t either. What are those old lines about payback and karma again?
Threedonia
October 15th, 2011 @ 9:31 am

Heads would explode at 100%. Barack Obama would also have another 4 years — guaranteed. This is about getting rid of Barack Obama… all of the current slate — save for Ron Paul — are light years ahead of him in terms of.

I don’t like ROve/Mehlman either, but a third party run from a conservative candidate would effectively elect Obama again.
Edward
October 15th, 2011 @ 9:42 am

My political affiliation has been changed from Republican to Sexxy! 🙂

On a more serious note; let us face reality. The Powers that Be in the GOP absolutely hate the idea of conservatives in positions of power.
Nihimon
October 15th, 2011 @ 9:48 am

Thanks, Smitty, for giving me this straw to grasp.
Nihimon
October 15th, 2011 @ 9:50 am

Not so sure that’s true if Romney is the Republican nominee.
ThePaganTemple
October 15th, 2011 @ 9:55 am

I’d vote for her in a fucking heartbeat and go all out to encourage others to do likewise. And you know something? I think she could pull it off. Simply because she would probably get a lot of conservative Democrats votes, and with the right kind of campaign, maybe even some moderate Democrats, once they got the straight scoop on her true record in Alaska. Hell yeah. I’m thinking of writing her name in anyway if you wan to know the truth.
Shawn Gillogly
October 15th, 2011 @ 10:02 am

If that candidate were either Palin or Cain, for example, I would vote for them in a heartbeat.

But then, my party affiliation has already been switched to the American Conservative Party. I won’t vote for an Establishment Statist with a gun to my head. Yeah, that means Nice Hair Romney.
Lynn Parks
October 15th, 2011 @ 10:15 am

Palin said on Mark Levin’s show the day that she announced she wasn’t running that a third party candidate would just ensure another four years of Obama. She sounded completely logical and reasonable about that. She won’t run.
Anonymous
October 15th, 2011 @ 10:17 am

More to the point, ORomney is just driving off the cliff at 90 instead of 100. End result is pretty much the same. Why give the socialists a “bipartisan” fig leaf?
Threedonia
October 15th, 2011 @ 10:54 am

If we get behind the eventual nominee Obama is toast. Divide the vote and he wins again. I don’t like Romney much either, but with a Republican Congress he’s a million times better than the Chickensh-t in Chief.
McGehee
October 15th, 2011 @ 11:18 am

How can Romney be better than four more years of Obama? If Romney is the nominee four more years of Obama is what we’ll get. Literally.

The way to prevent a divided vote is to not nominate the guy people will refuse to support.
rob
October 15th, 2011 @ 11:28 am

I will not let the establishment pick the candidate for me. If Romney gets the nomination i will vote third party, maybe when the libertarian party or Conservative party gets 5% of the vote they will rethink throwing conservatives under the bus.

Romney is a socialist shill. do you really think he will repeal obamacare? do you think he will have that dogged determination to oust every last line of that clusterf*ck from the law books? Do you think the economy will improve under Mittens? Look, the republicans will take back the house and senate, so obama won’t be able to do much anyway, and at least, when the economy doesn’t improve and the country continues to go to hell we won’t have a republican in office to take the blame.
Anonymous
October 15th, 2011 @ 11:35 am

Come on, you can’t seriously believe there’s no difference between Romney and Obama. I know we all slag Mitt on account of MassCare, but there’s a world of difference between a moderate/RINO like Mitt and a raving socialist like Obama.
Anonymous
October 15th, 2011 @ 11:36 am

Yeah, that worked so well with Perot, didn’t it?
Joe
October 15th, 2011 @ 11:51 am

I really do not want Obama getting re-elected. I really don’t.
Joe
October 15th, 2011 @ 11:53 am

Hell yeah. I share your collective pain. I get the feeling the fix is in. They figure they cannot trust tea party conservatives after O’Donnell (there is absolutely no self reflection or questioning why Mike Castle was such a great alternative).

But taking back the Senate and getting rid of Obama has to happen. Even Mitt at the helm is a 1000 times better than Barack Obama getting reelected.
Joe
October 15th, 2011 @ 11:55 am

Come on, that is nonsense. Romney I suspect would be better than John McCain would have been (and perhaps better than George W. Bush on the economy).

But the key is more conservatives in the House and Senate.
Shawn Gillogly
October 15th, 2011 @ 11:55 am

Because David Souter, Anthony Kennedy, Medicare Plan D, No Child Left Behind, and TARP were such great wins for Conservatives?

Let’s be serious. The Establishment is Statist. The only difference between them and the Left is how hard they push down on the socialist transformation pedal.

So yes, I’d rather have 4 more years of gridlock with a vibrant, energized Conservative movement, than another Bush Presidency where Conservatism is mislabeled to justify expansion of the state and the movement dispirited and defeated from within by our ostensible allies.

I will NOT hold my nose and vote again. Ever.
Joe
October 15th, 2011 @ 11:56 am

So you will help Obama get reelected? Great principles.
Joe
October 15th, 2011 @ 11:57 am

I hope you are in a red state. We can’t afford this sort of thinking in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Wisconsin, etc.
ThePaganTemple
October 15th, 2011 @ 12:11 pm

That depends on what kind of judges Romney would appoint. If he appoints more along the vein of Kennedy or Sutter, then McGehee’s 100% correct. About the only difference would be similar to the difference between inoperable brain cancer, one being at stage two and the other at stage four.
ThePaganTemple
October 15th, 2011 @ 12:12 pm

You don’t have to vote for the Republican presidential nominee to vote for conservatives in the House and Senate.
ThePaganTemple
October 15th, 2011 @ 12:13 pm

I agree with you about Palin, no way would I vote for Cain third party.
McGehee
October 15th, 2011 @ 12:14 pm

The guy who drives your kid’s school bus has this in common with Mitt Romney: he’d make a better president than Obama.

Another thing he has in common with Mitt Romney is, he will never actually be president so it’s pointless to talk about it.
ThePaganTemple
October 15th, 2011 @ 12:15 pm

It’s not likely that he would appoint judges who would overturn RomneyCare, and if they won’t do that, they not only won’t overturn ObamaCare, they probably rule against any legislative attempt to repeal it. They’d dredge up some reason to do so if they had to.
McGehee
October 15th, 2011 @ 12:15 pm

The people helping Obama get re-elected are the people supporting Romney, and those apologizing for him.
ThePaganTemple
October 15th, 2011 @ 12:18 pm

They’re not statist in the same way the Democrats are. The Democrats are European style Social Democrats. The GOP establishment are crony capitalists and all their leftist policies are no more than go-along-to-get-along compromises meant to blunt and dilute social policy issues generally favored by Democrats.
Anonymous
October 15th, 2011 @ 12:27 pm

Palin has a MUCH better shot at third party than previous third party candidates.

Why?

The others ran as Lone Wolves. They were their party’s only candidate.

Because of 2010, Palin already has dozens of House and Senate members and governors and state’s attorneys general, etc., who she helped elect.

If she spends the primary season getting as many more in those races on their way to winning in November, she could jump into the presidential general election as a third party.

Perot, etc., largely ran with their own money, hadn’t helped anyone else get elected in previous races.

Palin has people in office already.

Palin has O4P, TeamSarah already.

Comparing Palin to other third party runs, such as Perot, Anderson, or Nader, doesn’t really match up.
elaine
October 15th, 2011 @ 1:24 pm

Yeah, like he won’t if Romney is the candidate…

The GOP believed McCain was the reasonable, inevitable, electable choice in ’08. How’d that work out for them again…?
Adjoran
October 15th, 2011 @ 1:38 pm

All this speculation out of hearsay from a gutless coward who hides behind anonymity to cause trouble for his boss? A upstanding citizen that one, eh? A real conservative hero . . .

And on this thin gruel, people are ready to desert Marco Rubio AND the GOP entirely? If that’s your level of commitment, you should do the Republican Party the great service of leaving NOW and just stay out of our nominating process. You aren’t Republicans, just hangers-on, whiners, and complainers.

If you can’t see the difference between Anthony Kennedy and Sotomayor and Kagan, you belong in one of those fringe parties. Go ahead, help reelect Obama if that’s the only way to be true your “principles” – but do not think you will not be held accountable for it.

When Obama vetos the repeal of ObamaCare – it will be on you.
When Obama nominates more radicals to the Supreme Court – it will be on you.
When Obama destroys the power industry – it will be on you.
When Obama lets Iran go nuclear – it will be on you.
When Obama imposes crushing extralegal regulations – it will be on you.
When Obama deserts Israel entirely – it will be on you.

Just have spine enough to accept responsibility for your actions. It doesn’t seem so much to ask.
McGehee
October 15th, 2011 @ 1:43 pm

And nothing good can come of telling people to settle for a candidate they don’t like, before the convention — let alone before even one delegate has been selected.

I really do have to wonder WTF people are thinking.
McGehee
October 15th, 2011 @ 1:47 pm

The only people who should be selling Romney 13 months before the election are those openly supporting him. otherwise, wait until after the fucking convention to make this case.
elaine
October 15th, 2011 @ 1:53 pm

There’s no “help” about it. If Romney is the nominee, there’s no way in Hades he’s elected. Because whenever the GOP goes with the Mr. Milquetoast candidate, they get creamed. Every. Single. Time. Romney is the ultimate Mr. Milquetoast.

Romneycare alone will keep Mittens out of the WH, because NO ONE believes he’d actually work hard to repeal Obamacare. Not when he won’t even admit that Romneycare was a complete and utter failure. He still insists that it only needs some tweaks. Those are not the words of someone who’s going to fight to the death to repeal Obamacare. What’s he talking about? Giving every state a waiver. That won’t repeal the law, will it? And then what happens once the Republicans no longer hold the presidency? Right back to Obamacare. BRILLIANT!

There’s a reason Romney can’t pull better than 26% in GOP polls… and it’s not simply that there’s a large field of potentials running against him. It’s because he cannot ever pull a majority of Republican voters to support him in the primaries, just like McCain couldn’t.

Like McCain, he’ll ride the wave of the nomination, without the majority of primary voters’ support. And like McCain, he’ll go down in flames against Obama. And probably like McCain, it’ll be because he was too nice and too gentlemanly to fight down in the gutter on Obama’s level.

You don’t think Obama and the complicit media will do everything in their power to tear Mittens down, once it’s clear he’s the nominee? Because they will. They already started back a few months ago with the “he’s a Mormon who wears weird underwear” meme. Polls already show a majority of Democrats won’t vote for a Mormon, and only 2/3 of Republicans and Independents will support one. I don’t think those translate to winning numbers, particularly in Romney’s case.

Face it: Romney is unelectable, regardless of how his chances might look on paper, and regardless of how unpopular Obama is. Just as McCain was doomed.
TWB
October 15th, 2011 @ 1:53 pm

I hate the way the “establishment” is forcing their way on us like a football player on a cheerleader at homecoming; having said that, Mitt was the guy that got screwed last time around by McCain and Huckabee.

Romney isn’t my #1 choice, but if he is the nominee, we’ve “got” to support him. 2010 was the beginning of the conservative movement changing the way things are done in Washington. 2012 is just part of it; if Obama is re-elected then it’s a step backwards.

We get rid of Obama and then take it from there. We’ll have beat back the radicals enough to where we can focus our attention on trying to neuter the establishment. Including Romney.
Serfer62
October 15th, 2011 @ 2:09 pm

The thought of the DC leadership under ORomney, Boehner & McConnel dioes not encourage me to vote GOP. Why vote dfor them they are just Kommiecrat light!
I voted GOP in ’08 only because of Palin.
I will vote GOP only if its Cain.
Otherwise its a writein for Palin.
The DC GOP elitests need to be terminated…OHbama is just a byproduct
Charles
October 15th, 2011 @ 2:12 pm

Say that the Republican nominee is likely to lose a two-way race. What s the over-under of mounting a third-party run and getting blamed for something that is not your fault?
Conservative Troll
October 15th, 2011 @ 2:13 pm

You do realize, of course, that C4P have now retracted the claim that Palin changed her FaceBook status. She has ALWAYS been a conservative, not a Republican. More tempest in a teapot.
ThePaganTemple
October 15th, 2011 @ 2:13 pm

I hate the way the “establishment” is forcing their way on us like a cheerleader on a football player at homecoming;

FIFY
Joe
October 15th, 2011 @ 2:36 pm

I am not telling you to settle for Romney. I am telling you to fight like hell for someone else (and I would suggest Santorum and Bachmann supporters throw there lot in with Herman Cain). Cain could snatch this corrupt cake walk from Romney and run in for the nomination. That is what I would like to see.

But God forbid that Romney takes it, I am will hold my nose and pick Romney over Obama.
Joe
October 15th, 2011 @ 2:37 pm

I am not apologizing for Romney. He is not my guy. He is not my first choice. He is better than Obama.
Re: Strictly As A Thought Experiment - The POH Diaries
October 15th, 2011 @ 2:38 pm

[…] too much. At least more than I wanted to when I first woke up this morning. He’s got a short little post which really has stirred up the pot over there, and I figure why not stir it a little more by […]
Joe
October 15th, 2011 @ 2:41 pm

First of all let’s go back to 2004. Of the three we were stuck with: McCain, Romney and Huckabee, McCain had the best chance. McCain could have won. Picking Sarah Palin almost worked for him. Unfortunately, Sarah did a few poorly planned interviews and was betrayed by the people who should have been protecting her. McCain then acted like a fucking retard when the economy started to collaspe. That is when the losing die was cast.

Now we can say, what if Romney was the nominee (Huckabee seriously did not have much of a chance when Christ stabbed Mitt in the back in Florida)? My guess Obama still would have won but who knows. I suspect Mitt would not have done what John McCain did.
Paula
October 15th, 2011 @ 2:52 pm

Not sure what’s going on. I do know that Sarah Palin will do whatever is best for saving America. Listen closely to her Restoring The Republic” speech. I think she is going to throw her support behind a Conservative Candidate. I think we would be naive not realize “the fix” is already in. Can’t you feel the drumbeat? The media, the GOP pundits, Fox News, etc. etc. And then, stories such as tyhis are popping up:
“Mitt Romney’s success challenges Teaparty to fight, fade or make pragmatic compromise” http://tinyurl.com/3qruaad GOP elite vs Conservatives? gameon

Food for thought. Another thing that’s bothering me, is the LSM is pretending that Romney would pick Cain as VP (to gain his camps support) when we all know that Christie would probably be his choice.

I’m not solid on where I stand on any of this yet as I am still digesting it all. I do know that it is time to have eyes wide open and concerning the GOP and LSM, verify, verify, verify.

And Smitty this made me LOL–> “What is the over-under on head ‘splosions among the Ruling Class Overlords?”
Shawn Gillogly
October 15th, 2011 @ 2:58 pm

No argument. But being shot by a firing squad and being drawn and quartered both leave the victim dead. Statism is antithetical to freedom and authentic capitalism whether done to ‘get along’ or from out and out Socialist agendas.
Shawn Gillogly
October 15th, 2011 @ 3:07 pm

Nope I’m in Missouri 🙂

Now, to your statement. Who is this mythic “We” you speak of?

If it’s Conservatism, then I tell you what I said previously. Conservatism is better served by the chance to be a vociferous and real opposition, as it currently is, with probably both houses of Congress (and likely strengthening that in 2014 mid-term) and gridlock with a defanged Obama 2nd term White House than with a RINO President like Romney who sucks the life out of the movement and kills the Tea Party like Bush did.

If it’s the Country: I again disagree. While the short-term pain of 4 more years of Obama might be worse, the long-term decline would be more pronounced with Romney killing the GOP and Conservatism, losing the Congress, and then becoming a 1 term President replaced by another full-on socialist. That’s assuming Romney could win. Which he can’t. A guy who can’t break 30% of his own party isn’t going to win a national election.

If it’s the GOP, which given your “Red State” comment, I assume you mean. I don’t give a crap. The GOP and I parted ways a long time ago. I vote for authentic conservatives. Period. I didn’t vote for Roy Blount for Senate either. When the GOP puts up an authentic conservative, I vote for that candidate. When they don’t, I’ll pull the lever for the best other choice. The way I see it, voting for someone who doesn’t represent my values is throwing my vote away more than voting for someone who probably will lose is.

And Romney doesn’t represent my values. He may not be AS antithetical as Obama is. But I’m not dancing to that tune. He’s as useless to me as Gov. *
Shawn Gillogly
October 15th, 2011 @ 3:13 pm

The “what about the judges” meme was a Rove favorite to keep SoCons in line. But the results of Papa and Son Bush don’t justify the faith put into the line. And given Romney is a guy who supported gay marriage at the state level, I’m not seeing where he’d help judicial restraint at the federal level either.

We’d be getting a lot of Souter “home runs” all over again.
Quartermaster
October 15th, 2011 @ 3:19 pm

In the past having undivided government, no matter the party, has been a disaster. The socialist state has advanced. With a Rep Congress and Romney in the WH, you’d see the same nonsense we got with Bush, it would just have an imprimatur closer to the center, but still to the left.

The only hope we have is grid lock, and that won’t let us climb out of the hole the center-left, of both parties, has put us in. There may be a difference between Obama and Romney, but not enough to matter.
ThePaganTemple
October 15th, 2011 @ 3:20 pm

One good way to solve this problem would be for the RNC to get out of the way and stop interfering at least, and even better to support and promote the kinds of candidates they KNOW their rank and file members want, instead of playing this bullshit “we have to coooooompromiiiiiiise” ignorance.
TR
October 15th, 2011 @ 3:22 pm

In presidential races its been done successfully once I think in 200 years. But they do it again and again. Actually I see Ron Paul or Mike Bloomberg (with large money pots) in that category (not Sarah Palin). I believe one reason Sarah declined was that she refused to be tied to the whipping post for the next year while the pretty boy for republicans (or fat boy) got a free pass. That view has not changed. And self-sacrifice (witness her AK resignation) for a pointless point of ego inflation does not seem her style either,