The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

COVID-19: The ‘Experts’ Are Clueless

Posted on | May 27, 2020 | 2 Comments


As states began reopening their economies a month ago — led by Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott — the media’s favorite “experts” predicted doom. We were told to expect a deadly “surge” of new cases, a “second wave” of COVID-19 infections.

And then . . . it didn’t happen.

The per-capita death rate in Georgia remains 88% lower than New York’s; Florida’s rate is 93% lower and Texas is 96% lower. In Florida last week, there were 264 coronavirus deaths, an average 38 deaths daily, which is about half of what they were averaging two weeks ago. In Texas, 151 of 254 counties have never reported a single COVID-19 death. While Georgia reported an increase last week in the number of identified infections, officials say that reflects greatly increased testing, and the daily number of reported COVID-19 deaths in Georgia has continued trending downward after peaking at 55 on April 16.

The media don’t want to accept the reality that has become apparent, namely that this disease will never become as prevalent in the rest of America as it has been in New York and New Jersey, which combined have 40% of all U.S. coronavirus deaths. The specific conditions that gave rise to the epidemic outbreak in March and April — when the New York/New Jersey region was racking up hundreds of deaths daily, week after week — simply do not exist in Texas or Florida, and are not going to exist in the future. “Experts” have been reluctant to admit this:

A coronavirus model that has been cited by the White House now projects that fewer people will die in the United States by August.
In a Tuesday update, the model revised its forecast to 132,000 deaths — which is 11,000 fewer than it projected a week ago.
Built by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, the model is one of more than a dozen highlighted by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on its website. An ensemble forecast from the CDC, which relies on multiple models, projects that US deaths will exceed 110,000 by June 13. . . .
As states began reopening, IHME upped its forecast for the number of US deaths, based in part on cell phone mobility data that showed people moving around more. But the institute began revising its projections downwards last week, saying an expected increase in infections had not yet occurred.
Dr. Christopher Murray, the IHME director, said that might have been because of behavioral changes such as mask wearing. The institute has since described its plan for gathering data on how many Americans wear masks. It’s not clear what drove down the model’s projections on Tuesday, however.

Oh, now it’s the Magic Mask™ excuse. When are these people going to admit they simply don’t know what they’re talking about and never did?



2 Responses to “COVID-19: The ‘Experts’ Are Clueless”

  1. Wednesday Linkage « Bacon Time !!!!!!
    May 28th, 2020 @ 1:23 pm

    […] COVID-19: The ‘Experts’ Are Clueless […]

  2. Where Would We Be Without Experts? | 357 Magnum
    May 30th, 2020 @ 8:59 am

    […] Go read the whole thing; it isn’t long. But I will highlight the stats, which caught my eye. COVID-19: The ‘Experts’ Are Clueless. […]