The Other McCain

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Ukraine Update: Smashing Success?

Posted on | September 10, 2022 | Comments Off on Ukraine Update: Smashing Success?

When I posted Friday evening about the push toward Kupiansk (“Ukraine: Better Late Than Never”), I was determined to err on the side of caution, not to be taken in by overly optimistic claims, but overnight saw more reports that indicate Ukraine has achieved a truly stunning breakthrough. Now, it seems confirmed that advance elements of the Ukrainian force — motorized scouting parties, at least — have reached the Oskil River south of Kupiansk, wrecked one of the bridges over the river, and pushed 40 miles down the west bank toward Horokhovatka, which is just 17 miles northeast of Izyum. If all of these reports are true, it would mean that about 10,000 Russian troops reported to be at or around Izyum are in danger of being cut off and forced to surrender.

Even more than that, it is also being reported that, farther east, Ukrainian forces have crossed the Seversky Donets river and attacked the Russians at Lyman which, if true, would indicate a collapse of Russian forces on a much wider front. Even if the Russians can regroup, fall back to a defensible line and stabilize the situation, their losses in manpower and matériel are likely to be substantial, to say nothing of the damage to their morale, which was already pretty bad. All of this I say while still striving to err on the side of caution, but others are less cautious. For example, Mark Sumner at DailyKos says, “It’s unclear so far if there is any place that Russia has really dug in their heels and put up a solid resistance”:

What’s obvious is that in this location at least, Russia’s line was exactly one village deep. Once Ukrainian forces were able to either capture or bypass locations like Balakliya and Verbivka they were running loose in Russia’s backfield. With a few exceptions, the small Russian forces they’ve encountered have seemed to have one thought on their mind: which way to run. And even when Ukrainian troops did meet some resistance, as at Shevchenkove and Hrushivka, they seem to have cleared away those obstacles in a matter of hours, not days.
What’s obvious is that in this location at least, Russia’s line was exactly one village deep. Once Ukrainian forces were able to either capture or bypass locations like Balakliya and Verbivka they were running loose in Russia’s backfield. With a few exceptions, the small Russian forces they’ve encountered have seemed to have one thought on their mind: which way to run. And even when Ukrainian troops did meet some resistance, as at Shevchenkove and Hrushivka, they seem to have cleared away those obstacles in a matter of hours, not days.

Really, this reminds me of the Battle of Five Forks in 1865 where, once Grant’s army had broken the Confederate line west of Petersburg, everything collapsed, beginning the desperate retreat that ended eight days later with Lee’s surrender at Appomattox Court House. What is happening appears to be more than merely local, tactical success; rather, it looks like Ukraine has scored a strategic victory.




 

Category: Military, Russia, Ukraine

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