The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

Some Advice for NFL Losers

Posted on | December 8, 2024 | Comments Off on Some Advice for NFL Losers

Detroit Lions center Frank Ragnow

DRAFT OFFENSIVE LINEMEN.

Three simple words, and you might think NFL coaches and general managers — career professionals, who are paid to know football — would understand the importance of drafting offensive linemen, in terms of building long-term success in the league. Yet what is so apparent to me doesn’t seem to penetrate the minds of many of those highly paid experts, or else things might be far different for the Jacksonville Jaguars and the New England Patriots, two teams whose fates I’ve followed since 2021, when the Patriots drafted Alabama QB Mac Jones, who was traded this year to the Jags. A big part of what went wrong for Mac in New England was that the quality of the Patriots’ offensive line noticeably deteriorated in 2022 and 2023. Part of that can be blamed on Bill Belichick’s inexplicable decision to make Matt Patricia the team’s offensive coordinator for the 2022 season. But the problems on the offensive line weren’t just a matter of coaching; rather, the Patriots weren’t adequately replenishing their line through the draft. By his third season in New England, the pass protection was so horrible that the constant pressure basically wrecked Mac’s confidence. Having ruined their former first-round draft pick, the Patriots then decided to trade Mac Jones to Jacksonvile, and drafted Drake Maye from the University of North Carolina as their future “franchise” quarterback.

Well, guess what? The Patriots are now 3-10, and their offense is one of the worst in the league because their offensive line is still garbage. The Boston sports media has belatedly figured this out. Having spent the past two seasons blaming Mac Jones for everything wrong in New England, now that their darling Drake Maye is at QB — oh, the man-crushes this rookie inspires among Boston media types! — the fact that he’s got no protection up front is suddenly recognized as an issue.

Meanwhile, down in Jacksonville, the Jaguars have a very similar problem. The Jags are 2-10, and their “franchise” QB Trevor Lawrence is on injured reserve, with Mac Jones scheduled to start in his stead. Much of what’s gone wrong in Jacksonville since 2022, when Lawrence took them to the playoffs, is due to the weakness of their offensive line.

A few basic considerations: If the offensive line can’t make the running game work, you’re going to find yourself in a lot of third-and-long situations where you’ve got to pass, meaning that the defense can tee off on their pass-rush and, generally speaking, linemen who aren’t effective as run blockers aren’t going to be adequate when blocking pass protection. What this means strategically is that, if the offensive line isn’t getting the job done — both in the running game and the passing game — you’re going to be three-and-out on offense pretty regularly, your quarterback’s going to get sacked a lot and, because pressure from the defensive pass rush is distracting to a quarterback’s focus, you’re also going to lose the ball more often because of interceptions. This, in turn, means your defense is going to get worn out because of a lopsided time-of-possession. When commentators speak of football games being won “in the trenches,” this is what they’re talking about. Offensive linemen work almost anonymously, but what they do is essential to team success.

You’ve got to have five starters on the offensive line and, given the frequency of injuries, you also need three or four quality backup linemen, so that you really have to think of eight or nine players — roughly 1/6th of the 53-man NFL roster. While the different line positions are somewhat specialized, there is a bit of overlap between them: Your backup center can play guard, if needed, and some guards are big enough that they can play tackle, if needed. With this in mind, a typical NFL roster might include four offensive tackles, three guards, and two centers.

Something else: No team is ever going to let go of a really good left tackle. (Because he protects the quarterback’s “blind side,” the left tackle is the highest paid offensive lineman). If you think you’re going to find a good starting LT through free agency or trade, you’re delusional. Realistically, the only way to address that crucial position is through the draft, and how long is a left tackle going to last in the league, what with injuries and everything? Every five or six years, then, an NFL general manager has to be willing to expend the team’s first-round draft pick on a stud tackle, or else the team will never be credible as a Super Bowl contender.

The same is true, to a lesser extent, for any other high-quality offensive lineman. A healthy Pro Bowl center? No way a team’s going to let that guy’s contract expire so he becomes a free agent, and what could you possibly offer in a trade that would make the Detroit Lions say, “Sure, we’ll give you Frank Ragnow”? Generally speaking, the teams with great offensive lines get their players from the draft, not via trade or free agency. How many linemen are drafted in a typical year?

To study this, I took four recent years (2018-2021) when NFL teams drafted a combined total of 172 offensive linemen (31 centers, 52 guards, 89 tackles), meaning that in an average year, 43 offensive linemen were drafted. There are 32 teams in the league, which means that a typical NFL team drafted 5.4 linemen during that four-year span. There are seven rounds in the NFL draft, and nearly all the best players — the Pro Bowlers — and most of those who will be starters for five or more seasons, are drafted in the first four rounds. It is rare for late-round draft picks to develop into truly great NFL players, the most noteworthy exception being Tom Brady, who was a sixth-round pick out of Michigan.

Of the 172 offensive linemen drafted from 2018 to 2021, fourteen have made the Pro Bowl at least once: Frank Ragnow (C, Arkansas, 1st round, 2018), Quenton Nelson (OG, Notre Dame, 1st round 2018), Brian O’Neill (OT, Pittsburgh, 2nd round 2018), Orlando Brown Jr. (OT, Oklahoma, 3rd round 2018), Wyatt Teller (OG, Virginia Tech, 5th round, 2018), Chris Lindstrom (OG, Boston College, 1st round, 2019), Erik McCoy (C, Texas A&M, 2nd round, 2019), Elgton Jenkins (OG, Mississippi State, 2nd round, 2019), Tyler Biadasz (C, Wisconsin, 4th round, 2020), Tristan Wirfs (OT, Iowa, 1st round, 2020), Jonah Jackson (OG, Ohio State, 3rd round, 2020), Rashawn Slater (OT, Northwestern, 1st round, 2021), Penei Sewell (OT, Oregon, 1st round, 2021), Landon Dickerson (OG, Alabama, 2nd round, 2021), Creed Humphrey (C, Oklahoma, 2nd round, 2021). That’s five first-round picks, five second-round picks, two third-round picks and one fifth-round pick. The good news in this analysis is that your chances of scoring a Pro Bowl lineman are about equal in the first and second rounds, so if a team has some other pressing need — cornerback, wide receiver, etc. — they don’t miss too much of a chance in passing over a first-round offensive tackle. But there is a notable drop-off in the third round and later, which means that a quality offensive line is usually going to include more players drafted in the early rounds.

Of the 172 offensive linemen drafted 2018-21, slightly more than half (81) were taken in the first three rounds, which means that, over this four-year span, the average team drafted 2.5 linemen in the first three rounds. Do the best teams prioritize offensive linemen in the draft? During the past five years, six different teams have played in the Super Bowl — the Kansas Chiefs (four times), the San Francisco 49ers (twice), the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Los Angeles Rams, the Cincinnati Bengals and the Philadelphia Eagles. These teams, as conference champions, are by definition “elite.” Here are their offensive line draft picks for 2018-2021:

  • Kansas City Chiefs (4, including 2 third-round or higher) — OG Nick Allegretti (7th round, 2019), OT Lucas Niang (3rd round, 2020), C Creed Humphrey (2nd round, 2021), OG Trey Smith (6th round, 2021).
  • Cincinnati Bengals (8, including 3 third-round or higher) — C Billy Price (1st round, 2018), OG Rod Taylor (7th round, 2018), OT Jonah Williams (1st round, 2019), OG Michael Jordan (4th round, 2019), OT Hakeem Adeniji (6th round, 2020), OT Jackson Carman (2nd round, 2021), OT D’Ante Smith (4th round, 2021), C Trey Hill (6th round, 2021).
  • Los Angeles Rams (6, including 2 third-round or higher) — OT Joseph Noteboom (3rd round, 2018), C Brian Allen (4th round, 2018), OT Jamil Demby (6th round, 2018), OT Bobby Evans (3rd round, 2019), OT David Edwards (5th round, 2019), OG Tremayne Anchrum (7th round, 2020).
  • Philadelphia Eagles (6 including 2 third round or higher) — OT Matt Pryor (6th round, 2018), OT Jordan Mailata (7th round, 2018), OT Andre Dillard (2nd round, 2019), OG Jack Driscoll (4th round, 2020), OT Prince Tega Wanogho (6th round, 2020), C Landon Dickerson (2nd round, 2021).
  • San Francisco 49ers (5, including 2 third-round or higher) — OT Mike McGlinchey (1st round, 2018), OT Justin Skule (6th round, 2019), OT Colton McKivitz (5th round, 2020), OG Aaron Banks (2nd round, 2021), OG Jaylon Moore (5th round, 2021).
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3, including 3 third-round or higher) — OT Alex Cappa (3rd round, 2018), OT Tristan Wirfs (1st round, 2020), OT Robert Hainsey (3rd round, 2021).

Between them, these six elite teams drafted a combined 32 offensive linemen (5.3 average), of which 14 were taken in the third round or higher (2.3 average). Both numbers are slightly below the league average, mainly due to the low numbers for the Chiefs and Buccaneers. This may be because those teams entered 2018 with relatively strong offensive lines, as compared to a team like the Cincinnati Bengals, who went on an OL shopping binge during this time frame. However, the latter case may help explain why, in 2021, second-year Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow was able to take the Bengals all the way to the Super Bowl, beating the Chiefs along the way. By beefing up their offensive line, Cincinnait gave Burrow the kind of protection that would help a young quarterback flourish.

Also worth noting is Tampa Bay’s quality-over-quantity approach — the Buccaneers didn’t draft a lot of offensive linemen during this four-year span, but when they did, they favored higher-round picks. They have continued this trend in subsequent drafts, taking OT Luke Goedeke in the 2nd round in 2022, OG Cody Mauch in the second round in 2023 and C Graham Barton in the first round in 2024. As for the Kansas City Chiefs, now trying to win their third consecutive Super Bowl, in the three most recent drafts, they’ve taken a total of five offensive linemen, including third-round OT Wanya Morris in 2023 and second-round OT Kingsley Suamataia in 2024. Gotta protect Mahomes, right?

Building a good offensive line, and then replenishing it regularly to maintain that quality, makes it imperative for teams to use their draft selections judiciously. Some NFL front offices seem to get distracted by the glamour of quarterbacks and wide receivers as first-round picks. Everybody in the local sports media gets excited about picks like that, but an NFL general manager isn’t going to get much media praise for taking an offensive tackle in the first round. In the long run, however, that tackle might make a lot more difference in the W-L column than any wide receiver on the roster. A lot of teams would love to be where the Detroit Lions are right now — 12-1, heavily favored to make it to the Super Bowl after barely missing it last year. Look over that list of Pro Bowl offensive linemen I cited earlier and you’ll find that two of them, Frank Ragnow and Penei Sewell, both play for the Lions. There’s a reason Detroit has gotten where they are. Other teams should pay attention.



 

Shop Electronics at Amazon

Save on Groceries and Everyday Essentials

Shop Amazon Basics

Office & School Supplies

Category: Football

Comments

Comments are closed.