How Badly Did Tim Walz Lose?

Does this look like the face of a winner?

My first reaction to Tuesday night’s “debate” (scare-quotes necessary because this televised event in no way resembled an actual debate) was focused mainly on how bad Norah O’Donnell and Margaret Brennan were as “moderators” (scare-quotes necessary, etc.), However much you hate the media, you don’t hate them as much as they deserve to be hated.

Beyond that, however, the real story was how badly outmatched Walz was, as my friend Matt Margolis explains at PJM:

Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) dominated Gov. Tim Walz (D-Minn.) from start to finish in Tuesday nights vice presidential debate. It wasn’t even close. Despite the moderators’ best efforts to give Walz a hand, he was no match for Trump’s running mate.
Vance, composed and prepared, delivered clear, well-informed responses, especially when highlighting Kamala Harris’s ineffectiveness as vice president. Vance not only outperformed Walz on core issues but also tackled traditionally Democratic topics in ways likely to appeal to voters. His effortless command over the debate left both Walz and the moderators struggling to match his poise and precision.
And not even the liberal media could deny it.
“[JD Vance] landed a lot of punches in between all the niceties and all of that,” observed CNN’s Abby Phillip. “And the thing that really stood out to me was that Tim Walz did not seem prepared for it. He didn’t respond to a lot of the criticisms and attacks that Vance put on the table.”
She added, “I mean, I think there was a clear lack of preparation and execution here on Walz’s part.”
Dana Bash disagreed with her. “I think, actually, it’s the opposite,” she said. “I think he had too much preparation.”
Bash continued, “He had so many lines that he was clearly trying to say that he didn’t listen.. when… JD Vance said one of the many, many things he really hit Kamala Harris on — not Tim Walz, but Kamala Harris — he didn’t respond because he clearly had things in his mind. I think the lack of interviews that he has done with national media, with local media, it showed he needed more rest.”
Jake Tapper agreed.
“I agree. I mean, JD Vance is much more experienced at this, at public speaking, at defending himself, at pivoting,” Tapper conceded.

The undeniable fact of Walz’s debate flop was, of course, a subject that CNN (I watch, so you don’t have to) didn’t want to spend much time discussing Wednesday. Insofar as they couldn’t avoid it, CNN spent most of their time highlight a couple of what they imagined to be “gotcha” moments involving abortion and the J6 “insurrection.”

J.D. Vance avoided answering the question of whether Biden actually won the 2020 election. This is scandalous, inside the bubble where CNN talking heads live, but of course there is a very good reason why Vance refused to address this — namely, that about 70% of Republican voters don’t for a minute buy the “81 million voters” narrative.

Inside the bubble where CNN anchors and other news media types live, there is not the slightest doubt that Biden won and Trump lost, which is why they keep yammering on about J6 as a “threat to democracy.” Out here in the real world, of course, those of us who watched the Election Night coverage, and who have followed up on some of the claims made by skeptics, fall into one of two categories:

  1. “Election deniers” who absolutely don’t believe Biden won;
  2. and

  3. People who aren’t sure that Democrats stole the election, but aren’t willing to rule out the possibility.

Personally, I’m in the second category. It seems to me that there was some illegal “ballot harvesting” and maybe other shenanigans in the key swing states, but I haven’t yet seen irrefutable evidence that I would stake my credibility on as an explanation of how Democrats stole the election. Furthermore, and this is important, I don’t think there’s a lot to be gained, politically, by endlessly re-litigating the 2020 election. It’s enough for me to say I suspect shenanigans, and move on.

One of the things that leads me to suspect that Democrats really did steal the 2020 election is how determined the media are to silence anyone who doubts the result, and how enthusiastically they applaud the prosecution of J6 protesters. If it were really so self-evident that Biden won, why the censorship? Why the punitive rage toward “election deniers”?

Anyway, the judge in the J6 case against Trump unsealed special counsel Jack Smith’s 165-page filing in the case, and CNN was covering this at the top of every hour, without acknowledging the root problem with Smith’s case. See, it is impossible to say what Trump did was a crime — not morally wrong, nor unconstitutional — if Democrats actually did steal the election. That’s a giant asterisk the media never permit to be discussed. Smith’s argument is that Trump was trying to overturn “the will of the people.” That’s both his starting premise and his conclusion, so that his argument might be rendered as a syllogism thus:

  • A. Trump lost the election and tried to prevent the legitimate winner, Biden, from taking office;
  • B. [ blah blah blah ]
    therefore
  • Conclusion: TRUMP IS A CRIMINAL! A THREAT TO DEMOCRACY! SEND HIM TO PRISON!

My point — now circling back around to J.D. Vance’s avoidance of the question during the debate — is that the prosecution of Trump hinges on an ironclad certainty that Joe Biden did get 81 million votes, but even if I can’t prove otherwise, that doesn’t mean it’s a crime for me (or Trump) to think the election was stolen. Given the circumstances, where most of the people who voted for Trump felt that he (and, by extension, they) had been wrongfully cheated, the riot at the Capitol wasn’t a threat against democracy, but rather an attempt to protect democracy from crooks who rigged the election.

All that will become moot — a subject for historians to discuss — if Trump wins in November. Let him have his second term, after this four-year interregnum of Mr. Eighty-One Million Votes, and Trump will have a chance to redeem his reputation. The floundering performance of Walz in Tuesday’s debate makes it seem more likely than not that Trump will win this election, and win it convincingly enough that those who doubt Biden won in 2020 will be able to say, “See? We told you so.”



 

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Debate: J.D. Vance Defeats Tim Walz, Norah O’Donnell and Margaret Brennan

Tim Walz not answering a question about China

America wanted the answers to two crucial questions:

  1. Is there any politician in America less qualified for high public office than Kamala Harris?
  2. and

  3. Is it possible for debate moderators to be worse than ABC’s David Muir and Linsey Davis?

The answer to both questions is a surprising “yes.” Tim Walz is less qualified than Kamala, and Norah O’Donnell and Margaret Brennan were the worst debate moderators in the history of debate moderators.

It was another three-way gang-up, with the three Democrats (Walz, O’Donnell and Brennan) taking turns hurling accusations at Vance. Every question was either a Democratic Party talking point or, in some cases, a set-up to give Walz a chance to explain away his own various scandals. Like, they asked Walz about changing his gun-control stance, and he does his yada, yada, yada (obviously a rehearsed response) and then — without giving Vance a chance to reply — they moved on to housing.

Then, after Walz gets to do his spin on housing, they go to Vance and then back to Walz, so he can “respond to an allegation” that Vance made about Harris’s immigration policy. This is one example of a pattern that repeated itself throughout the “debate.” Any criticism Vance made of the Biden-Harris administration was labeled by the moderators as an “allegation” to which Walz was then invited to respond.

Give credit to J.D. Vance. He was focused and unflappable, maintaining his poise and stating his points clearly and confidently. Also, Vance is just much better-looking than Walz, which matters a lot on TV, especially when the target audience is confused suburban white women who can’t make up their mind who they want to vote for: “Hey, that guy with the beard has cute blue eyes . . .” That’s a few votes in swing states.



 

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Trump: I Won, No More Debates

This is a bold move, and can only be explained by Duane Patterson’s question: “If Kamala Won the Debate, Why Is Trump Gaining Ground?” Counter-intuitive as it may seem — because Trump had a lousy debate performance — it appears that many undecided voters moved in favor of Trump as a result. Or, to put it another way, these voters didn’t see from Kamala Harris whatever it was they had needed to see in order to vote for her. If you have ever actually talked to a “swing” voter, you know that they are, shall we say, idiosyncratic. So while it may seem inexplicable how Trump could have “won” that debate, in terms of persuading undecided voters, we’ll find out on November 5 — or in the wee hours of the morning of November 6 — whether Trump’s hunch is right. Obviously, he thinks he’s got this thing in the bag. His gut tells him that most people don’t want to vote for Kamala, no more than they wanted to vote for Hillary. For the sake of America, let’s hope he’s right.



 

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Yes, Kamala ‘Won’ That Debate (and Why It Probably Won’t Matter in November)

If any of your Democrat friends try to provoke you into an argument about who won Tuesday night’s debate, avoid the provocation by agreeing that Kamala “won,” and end the conversation immediately.

“Never smarten up a chump” — don’t let them in on the secret that Harris’s debate “victory” is unlikely to make any difference.

This is why Democrats were caught by surprise in 2016. They were paying attention to the media and didn’t understand that Trump voters were not deterred by any of his scandals or “gaffes.” This was a mistake that I myself made. After the “Access Hollywood” tapes went public, I declared in early October 2016 that there was no way Trump could win — how could anyone survive that? On Election Day, I went out and voted for Trump, then came home to watch the results on TV and was amazed to see state after state turn red on the map. Incredible!

Was any voter really undecided before Tuesday? I suppose that all the regular readers here had made up their mind to vote for Trump long ago. Your choice was not in the least changed, was it? Ditto all the Harris voters — they were never going to be persuaded to vote for Trump, no matter what. They’d vote for a turnip if it had a “D” next to it. Who were the “undecided” voters, and why were they undecided? I have trouble imagining such people exist, and can’t begin to explain the motives for their indecision. But if they were leaning toward voting for Trump, why would they change their minds simply because he was extra-Trumpish during the debate? The man is a known quantity, for good or ill.

Like a lot of other Trump voters, I was disappointed by his performance, but not really surprised, and certainly was not persuaded to vote for Kamala. I am against the Democratic Party, period, and my chief regret is that not every one of the 74,000,000 Trump voters are as staunchly anti-Democrat as I am. I voted for Trump despite Trump being Trump, and will do it again, and am therefore not an accurate bellwether of how an “undecided” voter might react to Trump being Trump.

My point is that I don’t think any Trump supporter should feel discouraged about the election because of Tuesday’s debate. If you have liberal friends who are whooping it up in celebration, the thing to do is to pretend you don’t notice. Don’t start any arguments, and don’t let yourself be baited into any arguments. Democrats are going to be Democrats, and why waste time arguing with fools?

Here’s Reagan Reese reporting at the Daily Caller:

Former President Donald Trump came out hot during his debate against Vice President Kamala Harris, while ABC’s moderators fact-checked just one side of the stage.
Trump and Harris met for the first time in their political careers on ABC News’s debate stage in a 90 minute contest that featured no live audience, muted mics and moderators that left many conservative viewers frustrated. As ABC’s David Muir and Linsey Davis continuously corrected Trump and left Harris un-checked, the vice president baited the former president into fiery moments by teasing him about rally crowd size and his 2020 loss. . . .
Though Harris dodged questions on her numerous policy flip-flops and whether Americans are better off under her administration than Trump’s, pundits and media personalities suggested that the vice president presented herself better than her opponent. A CNN flash poll of debate watchers found that 63% said Harris had won the debate, compared to 37% for Trump. The same sample of individuals said pre-debate they were split 50-50 on who they expected to win.
Her campaign apparently thought so too, because minutes after the forum ended, they began calling for a second debate in October.
Trump, meanwhile, was noticeably louder and more aggressive than in his debate against President Joe Biden, where the Republican nominee largely stood quietly by while his opponent imploded.
“She conveyed the calm. Did she answer all the questions about the switches? No. But I thought he would’ve raised that,” former congressman Harold Ford said in Fox News’ post show.
“She came out ahead of him in my opinion, no doubt,” Brit Hume, Fox News political analyst, responded to Ford. “She was calm, she was prepared.”

So there’s the “objective” take, such as it is.



 

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Debate Night: America in the Balance

The first presidential debate this year was such a huge Trump victory that Joe Biden dropped his re-election bid a few weeks later, resulting in Kamala Harris being anointed as the Democrat nominee. What are the chances that Kamala Harris will do better than Joe did against Trump? We’ll see. Feel free to use the comments as a sort of open thread. While I don’t expect to live-blog the debate, I will try to throw some new stuff in periodically. Maybe the topic of Haitians eating cats will come up.

UPDATE 9:13 p.m. ET: So what they decided to do was, first, ask Kamala about the Biden economic agenda. She doesn’t say anything in defense of Bidenomics, but instead talks about what various things she’s promising to do if elected. Then it’s Trump’s turn, and then they just keep going back and forth — Harris, Trump, Harris, Trump. I don’t know who’s winning this, but it’s annoying the hell out of me.

UPDATE 9:21 p.m. ET: One-liner of the night: “Run, Spot, run!”

UPDATE 10:09 p.m. ET: Wow, this is an awful, awful TV show. I suppose Kamala Harris’s supporters think she’s winning, while Trump has to not only debate his opponent, but also the ABC “moderators” who (a) keep telling lies while “fact-checking” him, and (b) never fact-check any of Kamala’s lies. Trump supporters are probably unhappy, but I don’t imagine they think their guy is losing. Probably the net impact of this whole thing is a wash, but my hunch is that a lot of viewers just tuned out after 30 or 45 minutes of squabbling.

UPDATE 10:28 p.m. ET: Folks, I’ve had as much of this as I can stand. Maybe tomorrow, after three or four cups of coffee, I’ll do a roundup of post-debate reaction, but I’m heading to bed now. Good night!



 

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Donald Trump Had an Agreement to Debate Joe Biden, Not to Debate ‘Whoever Democrats Pick to Replace Joe Biden’

Hey, remember when it was a “right-wing conspiracy theory” if you thought Democrats were going to pull a Torricelli-Lautenberg switch and run some other presidential candidate instead of Joe Biden?

Republicans float a quiet conspiracy theory
that Biden won’t be on the ballot

— NBC News, Oct. 26, 2023

Get Used to It: Biden Isn’t Going Anywhere
— Politico, Feb. 13, 2024

It’s time to end the conspiracy theories
about Biden being replaced as a candidate

— Washington Examiner, May 16, 2024

It’s important not to forget this recent history, which is being memory-holed by the same media voices who told you that you were crazy for thinking Democrats would do what, in fact, they have now done.

And why did Democrats dump Biden? Because the befuddled incumbent got his ass kicked in an early debate that Team Biden demanded. Remember that ridiculous “make my day” video from Joe?

So what happened? Many people were surprised when Trump immediately accepted the debates (first on CNN, then on ABC) with rules dictated by Team Biden. Lots of us right-wingers thought this was a bad idea. CNN was blatantly in the tank for Biden, but Trump didn’t seem to care. With the benefit of hindsight, we now see that Trump was smarter than all of us — he knew Biden couldn’t handle a debate, no matter how in-the-tank the moderators might be. (To be more anti-Trump than Jake Tapper and Dana Bash, you’d have to be Thomas Crooks).

Biden’s cognitively impaired performance in the June 27 debate proved to be a fatal wound to his reelection campaign, and Joe announced he was quitting 24 days later, designating Kamala Harris as his chosen replacement. This was ratified by a “virtual roll call” of DNC delegates — because thus does Our Democracy™ proceed — and Team Biden was thereby magically transformed into Team Harris. Despite the utterly unprecedented nature of this process, Team Harris seemed to assume that Trump was obligated to debate Harris under the same agreement he’d made when Biden was the candidate. Why? How is it that Democrats think they can pull such shenanigans and never experience any negative consequences as a result? Now Trump is playing hardball.

Trump offers to debate Sept. 4 on Fox in front of a live audience in Pennsylvania, and Team Harris perversely claims Trump is breaching his prior agreement with ABC when, in fact, it is Democrats who have rendered that agreement void by switching candidates.

And you know something? Harris needs the debate more than Trump does. He is a known commodity, with a solid grassroots base, so why should he do her any favors? It was one thing, when Biden was an incumbent seeking reelection, and Trump needed to counter the weight of the “bully pulpit.” But Kamala Harris? What has she got?

Recall that Trump did not deign to debate the Republican rivals who challenged him for the nomination. He let them debate amongst themselves, then beat them all in the primaries, without much effort. It may seem crazy to think that Trump has made a similar calculation about Harris, but his previous hunch proved accurate, didn’t it?

So, Trump decides that having no debate at all would be better than debating on ABC, and makes a take-it-or-leave-it offer for the Fox debate. And what if Team Harris says “no”? Fine with me, says Trump, and then turns all her complaints into an opportunity to talk about the shenanigans by which Democrats switched candidates.

“It’s a bold strategy, Cotton. Let’s see if it pays off.”



 

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MELTDOWN: Democrats Panic After Biden Has the ‘Single Worst Debate Performance in American History’

WOW! Just . . . WOW!

My pre-debate prediction was that CNN had this “debate” pre-arranged to be a Biden victory, but if so, it certainly didn’t work as planned. Not only is CNN itself now admitting that Biden crashed like the Hindenburg at Lakehurst, but there is a universal consensus among Democrats and all their media mouthpieces that (a) Biden cannot win in November and (b) he therefore must be replaced as the party’s nominee.

That headline is from New York magazine, whose Matthew Steib said as soon as the debate was over, “There’s lot of panic in the Democratic party that did not exist a few hours ago. . . . Speculation is rampant about swapping out Biden at the top of the ticket.” Until about 10 p.m. ET Thursday, anyone talking like that was dismissed as a “conspiracy theorist,” but now everybody is saying the same thing.

Ditch Biden. That Debate
Performance Was a Disaster.

That’s the headline from the New Republic‘s Alex Shephard:

Thursday’s debate should have been a tap-in. All Biden had to do was appear mildly competent. All he had to do was let Donald Trump be Donald Trump. Then the rest would take care of itself.
It’s hard to see how the bar could have been set any lower. And yet Biden not only failed to meet it, he delivered what may very well be the single worst debate performance in American history. Again and again, with no prompting, he made his opponent’s case for him. He was often incoherent, frequently appeared to forget the question he was responding to . . . This was a disaster, from start to finish. It is impossible to see how Joe Biden can continue as the Democratic nominee for president.

That’s emphatic, and the same basic message was echoing universally across the media landscape as soon as Thursday’s debate ended.

That’s the headline from Politico:

All Joe Biden needed to do was deliver a repeat performance of his State of the Union address.
Instead, he stammered. He stumbled. And, with fewer than five months to November, he played straight into Democrats’ worst fears — that he’s fumbling away this election to Donald Trump.
The alarm bells for Democrats started ringing the second Biden started speaking in a haltingly hoarse voice. Minutes into the debate, he struggled to mount an effective defense of the economy on his watch and flubbed the description of key health initiatives he’s made central to his reelection bid, saying “we finally beat Medicare” and incorrectly stating how much his administration lowered the price of insulin. He talked himself into a corner on Afghanistan, bringing up his administration’s botched withdrawal unprompted. He repeatedly mixed up “billion” and “million,” and found himself stuck for long stretches of the 90-minute debate playing defense.
And when he wasn’t speaking, he stood frozen behind his podium, mouth agape, his eyes wide and unblinking for long stretches of time.

That was something a lot of people mentioned: Didn’t Biden realize he was on a split screen when Trump was talking? Never mind what either candidate said during the debate, the simple visual contrast between the two candidates on split-screen was disastrous for Biden.

From another Politico article Thursday night:

Democrats are so panicked over President Joe Biden’s faltering debate performance some are actively discussing what was once unspeakable: replacing him on the ticket. . . .
One major Democratic donor and Biden supporter said it was time for the president to end his campaign. This person described Biden’s night as “the worst performance in history” and said Biden was so “bad that no one will pay attention to Trump’s lies.”
“Biden needs to drop out. No question about it,” the donor said in a text message, proposing an alternate ticket led by the governors of Maryland and Michigan. . . .
One adviser to major Democratic Party donors said they were texting from a meeting of donors in Atlanta on Thursday night, some writing “wtf.”
“Our only hope is that he bows out, we have a brokered convention, or dies,” the donor adviser said. “Otherwise we are f–king dead.” . . .
“No one expected a master class in debating from Joe Biden, but no one expected this nose dive,” said a senior adviser to top Democratic officials. “He was bad on message, bad on substance, bad on counter punching, bad on presentation, bad on non-verbals. There was no bright spot in this debate for him. The only bright spot is that this happened in June and not October.”

How bad was it? On MSNBC, former Missouri Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill was practically in tears saying how bad it was:

“Joe Biden had one thing he had to do tonight and he didn’t do it. He had one thing he had to accomplish, and that was reassure America that he was up to the job at his age, and he failed at that tonight. . . . I’m not the only one whose heart is breaking right now. There’s a lot of people who watched this tonight and felt terribly for Joe Biden. And you know, you have to ask, how did we get here?”

Yes, how did we get here? With the surprising midnight discovery of “extra” mail-in ballots on Election Night 2020? How did we get here, with 51 intelligence operatives signing a letter swearing that Hunter Biden’s laptop was “Russian disinformation”? How did we get here, with a “cabal” of operatives bragging about how they “fortified” Biden’s alleged victory in 2020? You see, Ms. McCaskill, some of us know damned well how we got here, and we know who is responsible for this. Unlike you, however, we don’t “feel terribly for Joe Biden,” as this was the logical conclusion of his long and dishonest career in politics. His first presidential campaign collapsed because Biden was caught plagiarizing his speeches. In early 2020 — don’t you remember? — Biden was on the verge of losing the Democratic nomination to Bernie Sanders until James Carville swooped in, got James Clyburn to endorse Biden, then locked down the black vote to win the South Carolina primary. We watched it happen, and we have not forgotten how we got here, with Biden now seemingly doomed to leave office — next January, if not sooner — as the Worst President in American History. He’s earned it. Selah.

UPDATE: Welcome, Instapundit readers! Grateful as always for visiting readers, perhaps this would be an opportune moment to remind you that the Five Most Important Words in the English Language are:

HIT THE FREAKING TIP JAR!



 

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Prediction: Worst ‘Debate,’ Ever

Every day, I watch CNN (so you don’t have to) and for the past several days, they’ve been hyping up tonight’s so-called “debate” between Joe Biden and Donald Trump as the Most Important Debate in World History. Like everything else on CNN, this is a lie.

There will be no actual debate tonight. That is to say, the way the rules are set up, there will be no back-and-forth between the candidates. In collusion with Team Biden, CNN decided that, to prevent interruptions, the microphones of the candidates will be shut off when it’s not their turn to speak. So when Biden predictably starts spewing arrant nonsense, Trump will not be able to say, “Wait a minute, that’s not true.” Or, if he does say that, you won’t be able to hear him say it.

Obviously, both “moderators” for the debate — CNN’s Jake Tapper and Dana Bash — are notoriously dishonest partisan Democrats and, my brother Kirby has predicted, CNN supplied Team Biden with copies of the “debate” questions in advance (cf., Donna Brazille in 2016). So if the CNN operatives appear to throw a “hardball” question at Biden, and he handles it so well that you might think, “Wow, that was pretty quick thinking,” do not be deceived. Biden has spent the past seven days practicing answering these questions — his team had them word-for-word, a week in advance — and no one should be surprised that he’s got his answers thoroughly prepared. It’s all a set-up, the result is pre-ordained. When the debate is over, everyone will proclaim Biden the winner, and they’ll have the 30-second sound-bite clips to prove it.

Trump supporters watching the debate tonight will be seething with anger the entire 90 minutes at the gross unfairness of it all, and guess what? There’s nothing you can do about it. Team Trump agreed to this debate six weeks ago, and if they expected CNN to do anything other than what they predictably will do — i.e., orchestrate the “debate” to be a free Biden campaign commercial — they were incredibly naïve.

Is it possible that I’m wrong about all this? Is it possible that this “debate” will be anything like a fair colloquy between the two candidates, so that Trump could win and Biden could somehow lose? Feel free to get back to me after the debate and tell me if I was wrong, but I expect to be completely vindicated. Jake Tapper and Dana Bash get paid to lie on behalf of Democrats, and I’m sure they’ll earn their pay tonight.



 

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