The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

Is Obama Doomed?

John Hinderaker looks at the Rasmussen poll numbers and notices the general decline in President Obama’s support over the past few months. Defeating an incumbent president is always difficult. It’s only happened three times in the modern era: Carter beat Ford in 1976, Reagan beat Carter in 1980 and Clinton beat Bush in 1992. The […]

Question the Timing (and Sample): Poll Shows Obama Leading in Swing States

You will remember that Democrats were panicking last month at the realization that Mitt Romney and the GOP outraised the DNC/Obama team in June, and that Obama’s unsustainable “burn rate” — pouring on a 2-to-1 ad blitz — had failed to move independent voters. Everything the Dems had done was being sabotaged by Obama’s tone-deaf “you didn’t […]

Memo From the National Affairs Desk: Ninety-Nine Days Until November 6

The Republican National Convention begins Aug. 27, which is now just four weeks away. More importantly, we are now inside the final 100-day window of the 2012 presidential campaign. This is as good time as any to ask, “Where does the race stand?” Today on Morning Joe — I watch MSNBC so you don’t have to […]

Gingrich Gets Stomped by 30 Points in Delaware; Fourth in Pennsylvania

As predicted, the talk of Newt Gingrich winning Delaware turned out to have been delusional: Mitt Romney got 57% to Gingrich’s 27% in the state where Newt had campaigned heavily in recent weeks. We have known since April 8 that Gingrich’s campaign was more than $4 million in debt. By continuing his campaign another 16 […]

Working the Refs: Axelrod Attacks Gallup; Romney Slams Pro-Obama Media Bias

Joel Gehrke at the Washington Examiner reports: “Gallup is saddled with some methodological problems,” [Obama adviser David] Axelrod tweeted today. He also directed Twitterati to a National Journal piece arguing that Gallup polls showing Romney in the lead “has a sample that looks much more like the electorate in 2010 than the voting population that […]

Nate Silver, the Experts and … Me

From Matt Welch’s article about dinosaur media: In 2008, a 30-year-old baseball stat nerd looked at the reams of public research product churned out by the nation’s 1,500-plus daily newspapers, and concluded that, though “there is nearly as much data as there is for first basemen,” the “understanding has lagged behind.” So Nate Silver launched […]

BULLETIN: 5.0 Earthquake Hits Vanuatu; New Poll Shows Rick Santorum Headed for ‘Commanding Win’ in Louisiana Primary

BATON ROUGE, Louisiana News that the South Pacific island nation of Vanuatu was shaken today by a 5.0-magnitude earthquake reached me at just the same time as news that the latest poll shows Rick Santorum way ahead here: Rick Santorum is headed for a commanding win in Louisiana on Saturday. We find him with 42% to 28% […]

Santorum Leads Latest Louisiana Polls; Newt Gingrich at LSU Tonight — Maybe

BIRMINGHAM, Alabama Looking at the Politico candidate calendar, it’s slim pickings on the presidential campaign trail in Louisiana today: Mitt’s in DC, Rick Santorum’s got an event in San Antonio, Texas, and Newt Gingrich is scheduled for an 8 p.m. Tea Party forum at Louisiana State University in Baton Rouge. Meanwhile, we have a new […]

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