The Other McCain

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‘Regime Change’ in Egypt?

Posted on | January 30, 2011 | 32 Comments

The stars appear to be aligning against Hosni Mubarak’s regime. Joe Biden’s early defense of Mubarak appeared to suggest that the Obama administration might support maintaining the status quo, but that has obviously changed with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton now calling for “real democracy” in Egypt:

Real stability only comes from the kind of democratic participation that gives people a chance to feel that they are being heard. And by that I mean real democracy, not a democracy for six months or a year and then evolving into essentially a military dictatorship or a so-called democracy that then leads to what we saw in Iran.

But this formulation evades the basic problem, doesn’t it? How can the U.S. be certain that a “real democracy” in Egypt won’t eventually lead to either a new military autocracy or else to an Islamist revolution? If we are “imperialist” to support Mubarak, are we any less imperialist to insist that the Egyptians pursue exactly the sort of democracy that meets our approval?

Perhaps the Left would be less enthusiastic for Mubarak’s ouster if they realized that this places them in agreement with what Bill Kristol calls the “prestigious” Working Group on Egypt. We know that the Left’s guiding principle in foreign policy is to support our enemies and attack our allies, so perhaps Mubarak could save himself by striking a pose of anti-Americanism, maybe buddying up to Hugo Chavez or blaming the protests in Cairo on the Mossad and the CIA.

It’s interesting to note that Mark Levin is very skeptical toward the prospects of Egyptian democracy. And I further note that this skepticism is shared by the indisputable king of right-wing pessimism, Allahpundit:

No doubt Iran is already working on ways to get money and arms to the Brotherhood for the power struggle ahead, which will end up being Exhibit 8,943 that Shiite and Sunni fundies are perfectly capable of cooperating against a common enemy. . . .
Even if [Mohammed ElBaradei] ends up as a compromise choice for leader, without any sort of formal Islamist takeover, having him at the top is guaranteed to weaken the west’s alliance with Sunni Arab regimes against Iran.

Ed and Allah have compiled a huge aggregation about the ElBaradei/Muslim Brotherhood angle in Egypt that’s worth reading.

UPDATE: Christine Brim exposes the double game being played by the Muslim Brotherhood, whose English-language site calls for “freedom,” but whose Arabic-language site appeals to jihadist sentiment. I’m reminded of A.L. Rowse’s criticism of Neville Chamberlain and the British appeasers. None of them were fluent in the German language; they knew little or nothing of German history and culture; and they hadn’t read Mein Kampf. Those well-meaning Englishmen would not listen when Churchill and others tried to warn them that Hitler’s promises of “peace” could not be trusted. Indeed, those who warned of the Nazi menace were viewed as irresponsible alarmists, while the appeasers were hailed as brilliant statesmen — until they were finally overtaken by the catastrophe they had made possible.

UPDATE II: Donald Douglas at American Power has video of Hillary’s appearance on “Meet the Press”:

Here, Hillary makes clear that the U.S. isn’t simply going to pull the plug on Mubarak, but will insist on an “orderly transition” to democracy. Hillary also makes a point that John Guardiano made yesterday at The American Spectator: The Egyptian military is a widely respected institution, which offers the best hope that Egypt will not go the way of Iran or Somalia.

UPDATE III: Via Katy Pundit, we have an analysis by Jim Carafano of The Heritage Foundation titled “Obama Doctine is Failing in the Middle East.”

Personally, I’m hesitant to interpret the situation in Egypt as a litmus test of Obama’s foreign policy. After all, it might work out successfully, in which case we’ll know that Obama’s policy had nothing to do with it. On the other hand, if the situation turns into a complete disaster — and, c’mon, it’s the Middle East, so that’s the most likely scenario — Obama will go down in history as “the president who lost Egypt.”

You may say that’s rather a cynical view, but of course, if Egypt spirals out of control, liberals will find some way to blame it all on Bush.

UPDATE IV: Some may wonder why Barack Obama doesn’t just come out and denounce Mubarak for running a corrupt kleptocratic crony government. But I must remind you that Obama is a Chicago Democrat.

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Category: Egypt, Hillary Clinton

Comments

  • Anonymous

    The smart money is on the Muslim Brotherhood. The hopeful bet remains the Egyptian Army. Time will tell.

    http://libertyatstake.blogspot.com/
    “Because the Only Good Progressive is a Failed Progressive”

  • Joe

    So since the chances of democracy are low in Egypt, we should back a government that is clearly not liked by 90% of Egyptians? Too little too late.

  • Bob Belvedere

    Quoted from and Linked to at:
    Egypt: The Dark Side Of The Loons

  • Bob Belvedere

    Democracy is the worst thing that could happen over there. Through it, the Jihadists will come to power and be able to claim [thanks to our incessant advocacy for it] a legitimacy.

    It’s about time we Americans took off our rose-colored glasses, ground them into the dirt, and realized (1) democracy is always the step before tyranny and (2) some nations cannot handle representative government [most especially, non-Western ones].

  • AnonymousDrivel

    So the Muslim Brotherhood is all about democracy, eh? Good luck with that.

    Iran version 2.0 is more likely. This is not going to end well. A few sadistic jihadists have proven that they can punch well above their weight. El Baradei will be a short term useful idiot. He thinks he can ride into office on a wave of contrived “populism,” but he’ll be their puppet… at best.

  • Anonymous

    What I’m saying is that the most likely outcome of this uprising — perhaps not immediately, but eventually, and perhaps rather soon — is an Egyptian government that is anti-American and anti-Israel. This has generally been the pattern in the past, especially with a Democrat in the White House (e.g., it was during Clinton’s presidency that the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan).

    In foreign policy, we are often confronted with choices between “bad” and “worse” or between “known” and “unknown.” The Mubarak regime may be bad, but it is a known bad and is thus perhaps preferable to an unknown that could conceivably be much, much worse.

    I’m sure that few people in 1978 would have believed it if you had told them that one day they’d be nostalgic for the “good old days” of the Shah of Iran. But then, who in 1978 could have imagined the Ayatollah Khoumeni, the mullahs, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad?

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  • http://www.redstateeclectic.typepad.com AngelaTC

    So, I guess I”m the only one who doesn’t really give a rat’s butt about who runs Egypt. Oligarchy, Dictatorship, Theocracy – it’s their country. They’re perfectly capable of screwing it up even without us.

    We just need to stop trying to buy other governments. We’re freaking broke.

  • http://www.redstateeclectic.typepad.com AngelaTC

    Even out founders didn’t buy into the myth of democracy. That’s why we’re a republic.

  • http://www.redstateeclectic.typepad.com AngelaTC

    And yet we keep defending a foreign policy that is clearly wrought with failures because….?

    Who makes us choose between “bad” and “worse?” exactly?

    And I think we need to back to at least 1953 to fully understand why the radicals gained power in Iran. (And even with all that, they were the only Muslim country that openly mourned with us on 9/11.)

  • Joe

    I am hoping some of the opposition can get in power and try to fix things in Egypt. They went from anti colonialism to Nassarism, which was very anti US/anti Israel. Out of that came Sadat who saw things needed to change. They did. He also got murdered. Mumbarak was hiding (kinda like Jesse Jackson Jr. was when King was murdered) that day in Cairo. He has maintained a kleptocracy for 31 years that only benefits a few.

    So do we try to maintain that? Or do we act nimbly enough to allow some change but mitigate something insane like the Iranian Revolution? The good thing is Egyptians (while definitely not friendly toward Israel) don’t particularly want to fight any wars with them either. Nor does that country want Mullahs to take over.

    Older Egyptians still remember 67 and 73. You can still see the burnt out tanks in Sinai. In 73 the Israelis were stopped by Kissinger about 30 miles outside Cairo.

  • http://www.lsrebellion.blogspot.com/ Old Rebel

    This would be amusing if it wasn’t so tragic. Joe Biden verbalized what the DC elite REALLY wants, while Hillary stuck to DC’s fairy tale about supporting freedom. In fact, DC has opposed popular elections in the Middle East when the people chose candidates who didnn’t kowtow to the Empire. (Iran and Algeria are just two examples.) All the Arab dictatorships under fire are the ones DC has porpped up with taxpayer dollars.

    It’ll be interesting to see how Obama handles this collapse of DC’s hegemony in the Middle East.

  • Joe

    The only way to fix that basket case of a country is to end the staggering taxes and regulations and let people start being productive. I understand merely substituting autocratic control for “democracy” can lead to bad outcomes (i.e., Algeria). Still, if some parlementary system came into being that allowed some of the Muslim Brotherhood to be part of that government, then they would also own the screwed up economy there.

    What swung the pendelum (allowing Sadat to make change) was the utter failure of Nasser’s nationalist socialism. The swing now is for a change in the economy. Yes, the Muslim Brotherhood will try to take advantage, but this is not Iran.

  • Joe

    “But then, who in 1978 could have imagined the Ayatollah Khoumeni, the mullahs, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad? ”

    Huh? I do not recall even the MSM giving that movement the deference they gave to Castro when he first took power. Most people recognized that things were not going to turn out well in Iran, and sure enough the embassy hostage crisis brought that home to everyone.

    Iran was a very weird revolution. But I do not see a widespread call for Islamic Revolution/Uprising in Egypt (like there was in Iran, Algeria, and Afghanistan). There is some of that, but not with populist support like there was in Iran.

    So while I would love to see things cool down there…if Mumbarak has to go he has to go. I do not think we have a choice, we will have to deal with it.

  • Joe

    Who would have guessed a Tunisian fruit vendor, upset over over opressive government regulation, would light himself on fire and in the process light up the entire middle east.

    Holy moly! Glenn Beck and the Tea Party are to blame for all of this!

  • Adobe_Walls

    Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei is an Iranian stooge. When he was head of the UN’s IEAE he tried to convince everyone that all those centrifuges were actually just part of an Industrial Laundry facility. Quoting HOTAIR’s quote of AP ( I recommend the ED and Allah link above to all ) “he was head of the IAEA and ostensibly charged with inspecting Iran’s nuclear sites……His main task, he felt, was preventing a western attack on Iran”, I think that’s why he won the Nobel prize,..hmm sound familiar? Most of his working career was spent in some capacity at the UN (an infamous Islamic supremacist organization) which indicates his competence. He was an Iranian stooge long before this golden opportunity fell in his lap.
    With any luck we have our military talking to Egypt’s using back channels. The only hope of the MB not controlling Egypt a year from now would require that an interim Govt. controlled by the Egyptian Army bypassing the stooges and straw men stood up by the Jihadists. They/we would then have to identify and nurture genuine moderates to run in the Sept. elections already scheduled (I already feel better).
    Given the forceful, principled and courageous national leadership in charge of our diplomatic efforts I’m sure all will be well.

  • Adobe_Walls

    That glass is still half full!

  • DaveO

    In Egypt, President Obama’s foreign policy has been to… wait and see, with perhaps the gentlest of nudges to Mubarak. In Iran, during it’s electoral Green Revolution, President Obama’s foreign policy has been to… wait and see, phoning in support for the revolutionaries only after most had been rounded up or massacred. In Lebanon, President Obama’s foreign policy has been to… wait and see, and admonish Israel for not being grateful for all the rockets impacting inside its borders.

    In Honduras, President Obama came off the bench early. He scolded, he withdrew funding, but otherwise, he did nothing. In Venezuela, President Obama’s foreign policy was to wait and see while American companies were taken over. In Brazil, President Obama’s foreign policy was to shut down American oil exploration in the Gulf of Mexico, freeing up resources such as the rigs to drill under Brazil’s aegis.

    Even Ron Paul’s foreign policy stance is more aggressive and protective. Are we going to have to looks to Canada for some direction in foreign policy?

  • Joe

    That is pretty spot on Dave. The Canada line made me laugh.

  • AnonymousDrivel

    Most of his working career was spent in some capacity at the UN (an infamous Islamic supremacist organization) which indicates his competence.

    I think this pretty much sums it up. He’ll be chewed up and spit out by the Islamic radicals as soon as his cover as a democratic fig leaf is used up. El Baradei won’t even last as a stooge. He’ll be so feckless and weak that just about anyone will supplant him even if he wanted to be a strongman. I don’t believe Iran would even tolerate this guy except as, as I said, a useful idiot.

  • Joe
  • AnonymousDrivel

    Think Suez Canal and oil and transport. If Egypt turns Fundamentalist Islam – and it could – they’ll hate the West with a white, hot passion. We’ll have to cut off our aid (much as I would like to keep it domestically) and they’ll be even more upset as their economy gets worse. The Suez will be cut off and another source of oil will disappear. Israel will also become more threatened.

    Because of the way we run our own country especially WRT energy, we must maintain relations with some ME countries. Isolationism is not possible. That would actually cost more than the trivial amount of aid we provide to Egypt. The oil and transportation fees, not to mention the cost of yet another hostile Islamic nation, would dwarf our subsidies.

  • Adobe_Walls

    Our government isn’t so stupid that it doesn’t realize that backing tyrants eventually blows up in our faces. It’s just too stupid to engineer the alternative until it’s too late.

  • Adobe_Walls

    Actually Iran was a classic popular revolution with mainly middle class beginnings. Popular street revolutions usually take every one by surprise especially the people who have been trying to foment popular street revolution. This basic pattern holds true for the last century.

  • Adobe_Walls

    Actually Iran was a classic popular revolution with mainly middle class beginnings. Popular street revolutions usually take every one by surprise especially the people who have been trying to foment popular street revolution. This basic pattern holds true for the last century.

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  • Bob Belvedere

    Stacy wrote: *I’m sure that few people in 1978 would have believed it if you
    had told them that one day they’d be nostalgic for the “good old days” of
    the Shah of Iran. *

    I was one of those few – I liked the Shah. Bring the royal family back!

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