BLACK FRIDAY? Betting Market Reaction to Failure of Boehner’s Debt-Ceiling Bill

Posted on | July 29, 2011 | 29 Comments

Boehner Delays Vote on Debt... Limbaugh: We've Been Played... GALLUP: Obama Rates Higher Than Boehner, Reid on Debt Situation! Ron Paul: 'Default Is Coming'... Treasury Contingency Plan on Debt Gives Priority to Bondholders... Carney: If We Have No Other Alternative We Will 'Take Action'...

Obama faces legal bind if time runs out...

When word came late last night that House Speaker John Boehner didn’t have enough GOP votes to pass his bill, I wrote:

The most obvious possible prediction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average will drop at least 200 points Friday.

Rather than merely predict such a result — talk is cheap — I decided to make the proposition interesting:

Pete Da Tech Guy took the bet. The DJIA closed at 12,240.11 Thursday, so if it closes at 12,040.11 or less Friday, I collect $10. But if the Friday close is 12,040.12 or more, Pete collects $10.

After Pete and I made our friendly wager last night, my buddy John Guardiano started giving me flak about it, saying that among other things I was “playing into the Left’s eagerness to stoke a market downturn so they can force House Republicans to capitulate.”

Here’s the thing: I’m not making a value judgment. It’s irrelevant, as regards my $10 bet, whether the House should or should not pass the Boehner bill. I’m just acting on the knowledge that the market hates uncertainty, which is why the DJIA lost a total 484 points in the past five sessions. And here are the headlines in Friday’s papers:

House Puts Off Debt Vote as Press by Boehner Fails
— New York Times

House Leaders Postpone Vote on Debt Plan
— Washington Post

House Vote on Boehner Plan Is Delayed
— Wall Street Journal

Are you getting my drift here? If the DJIA was losing an average 97 points per day before last night’s big flop, doesn’t it just make sense that Wall Street will be having a Freakout Friday Fire Sale today?

Drew M. at AOSHQ says: “Tomorrow (Friday) is 2Q GDP report day. Should be fun. And by fun I mean, awful.”

The initial reaction to the Big Boehner Bungle from both U.S. futures markets and the Asian markets indicated my common-sense hunch was right. But markets are notoriously unpredictable (otherwise we’d all be rich), so it’s anybody’s guess whether Pete or I will be smiling when the closing bell rings on Wall Street this afternoon.

If you think I’m going to win, you should hit Pete’s tip jar.

However, if you think Pete’s going to collect the bet, hit my tip jar.

UPDATE: Morning headling from Bloomberg:

Asian Stocks Decline on U.S. Debt Deadlock

. . . “If a resolution in the U.S. is not reached, clearly the economy will suffer so that demand will wane significantly, and we’ll see pressure on Asian exporter earnings and shares,” said Chris Hall, who helps manage $4 billion of assets at Argo Investments Ltd. in Adelaide. “Earnings are mixed across the spectrum. There are still a lot of unknowns right now, and everyone’s incredibly cautious.” . . .
“Its unbelievable, these guys are not just playing with financial markets but their own constituents’ jobs,” said Sydney-based Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors Ltd., which has almost $100 billion under management. “It’s certainly adding to stock-market nervousness. I think they will eventually get a deal that avoids massive spending cuts or default, but the risk is growing that they won’t.” . . .

UPDATE II: Wall Street Journal headline:

European Stocks Plunge on Debt Fears

Category: Budget, Da Tech Guy, Economics, John Boehner

Comments

29 Responses to “BLACK FRIDAY? Betting Market Reaction to Failure of Boehner’s Debt-Ceiling Bill”

Joe
July 29th, 2011 @ 11:43 am

I think Rush nailed it: It’s A Trap.
Mr. Dart
July 29th, 2011 @ 11:48 am

200 points on the DJIA is only about 1.6% . It wouldn’t be unusual for the market to go down that much on a summer Friday if nothing of importance was going on in Washington. After all, it’s the last trading day of the month.
BigGator5
July 29th, 2011 @ 12:11 pm

Pete, that was a bad bet. The Dow will dip below 300 points when the day is done.

Kill It With Fire!!
kerry anderson
July 29th, 2011 @ 12:12 pm

Don’t go squishy OtherMc like your cousin John!
Ladd Ehlinger Jr.
July 29th, 2011 @ 12:17 pm

It’s a Trap! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mNLuq0lW50k
ThePaganTemple
July 29th, 2011 @ 1:13 pm

I think its over. When John McCain makes more sense than most other people in Congress, its time to dig a hole, crawl in, and pull the dirt over.
John Higgins1990
July 29th, 2011 @ 1:20 pm

Then why do Ryan, West and conservatives like Thomas Sowell support this? Are they stupid, or just spineless?
Expectedly, the economy shrinks « Don Surber
July 29th, 2011 @ 9:55 am

[…] Robert Stacy McCain is betting $10 that it falls 200 points or more. […]
Anamika
July 29th, 2011 @ 2:15 pm

Your guess is as good as mine.
Anamika
July 29th, 2011 @ 2:24 pm

I always knew you were a passionate type but didn’t know that you were such a pessimist and a cynic who would lose heart so easily, Pagan.

You can always jump ship and swim to the other side, you will be welcomed with open arms, you–being a pagan and all–will be guarenteed a nice little place in some or the other corner of the left tent to fit right in. Trust me.
Leslie Eastman
July 29th, 2011 @ 2:31 pm

I have a transcript of a presser Obama is giving today. Here is what he is planning to say:

One DEBT to rule them all, One DEBT to chide them,
One DEBT to bring them all and in the red-ink bind them.
Anamika
July 29th, 2011 @ 2:39 pm

You think you are funny? You think this is a time to make your silly high school teen level parodies about the debt crisis?
Joe
July 29th, 2011 @ 2:46 pm

It never gets old. It is one of the only worthwhile things from the newer star wars films.

And stacy, looks like the markets are going where you thought they would. Unless there is good news soon, looks like you might take this bet.

Of course, it will not make up for that bad night on the roulette wheel…
Obama Speaks, Markets Fall : The Other McCain
July 29th, 2011 @ 10:46 am

[…] and can’t pass Harry Reid’s Democrat-controlled Senate.But the big question is: Will I win that $10 bet?Category: Barack Obama, Budget, EconomicsComments /*google_ad_client = "pub-9749646473075980"; /* […]
Trader
July 29th, 2011 @ 2:53 pm

Intrade currently has it at

DOW to close DOWN by 200 points or more on prev close

Last prediction was: $1.00 / share

Today’s Change:

–

10.0% CHANCE

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=750881
if you want to place your bet
ThePaganTemple
July 29th, 2011 @ 3:18 pm

Linked (not this post but the blog)-

The Magical Wonderland Where Only RINOs Make Sense
Ladd Ehlinger Jr.
July 29th, 2011 @ 3:32 pm

I thought it was funny. Do we need to schedule a proctologist for you to perform a bugectomy, Anamkisa?
AngelaTC
July 29th, 2011 @ 3:38 pm

It’s not going to drop significantly. This is all part of the game too.

When they get the debt deal done, the Street knows the Dow will jump, so they’re sitting on the cash waiting to buy back in.

Americans are indeed suckers. All Washington has to do is pretend the world as we know it will end if they don’t get a massive amount of new cash printed up, and everybody believes them, even though they’re consistently wrong about every prediction they make.
AngelaTC
July 29th, 2011 @ 3:39 pm

I love that! It’s perfect!
Anamika
July 29th, 2011 @ 3:59 pm

You think you are even more funny than Lesie the C of Pee’er (of C4P blog) , Ladd? Whydon’t you just stick to what you are good at, you know like making vulgar political attack ads.

You want funny? Who said Lefties have no sense of humour? Here’s one from yours truly… not about the domestic debt crisis but let’s say i tackle American foreign (mis)adventures…

You realize of course that when Congress ‘brings democracy’ it generally means it’s of no use at all, with the exception of the profit made bu US companies that get grants to build you ‘infrastructures’ that you don’t need.

You could wind up with a highway system, or a nuclear power plant where the sun never shines.

**a cautionary tail tale **

Anal Democracy Update:

Liberation forces are stalled, due to massive Humoroids blocking their progress.

We are sending in a team of crack special-forces proctologists, but the administration is contemplating the use of powerful Preparation H-bombs.

CNN reporters embedded say that the troops’ morale is high, in spite of the shitty conditions of the battlefield.

The native inhabitants of this dark land claim that the US forces desire only to ‘colonize’ instead of liberate, but analysts concur that this territory is utterly bereft of resources, save the remnants of last-year’s Xmas dinner.

Field commanders are on the watch for sewerside bummers, Ex-Lax attacks, and other weapons of insurgency.

“Gas masks are proving their worth”, commented Corporal Punishment, platoon leader and forward scout. “The bad guys tried to attack us, but we rectum”.

Stay tuned for ‘late-breaking reports’ as they occur, now and then.

==Anamika==
Omniscient News Service
AngelaTC
July 29th, 2011 @ 4:03 pm

In America, we spell humor without a “u”.
Ladd Ehlinger Jr.
July 29th, 2011 @ 5:11 pm

Wow, somebody’s got a really big bug up in there and whatnot.
Ladd Ehlinger Jr.
July 29th, 2011 @ 5:12 pm

I hope I wasn’t expected to read all of that bipolar, there.
DaveO
July 29th, 2011 @ 6:36 pm

I’m shocked! SHOCKED! at your trying to make money off of DJIA!
Anonymous
July 29th, 2011 @ 8:15 pm

This often happens when someone forgets to replace the lids on the petri dishes.
Pete Wins the $10. I Blame Soros. : The Other McCain
July 29th, 2011 @ 4:16 pm

[…] Dow Jones Industrial Average failed to drop by the 200 points I’d predicted. It was down badly, off 96.87 to close at 12,143.24, but that wasn’t enough to win my $10 […]
Anonymous
July 29th, 2011 @ 8:17 pm

Actually I’m sure it’s much better.

Dungbat.
Fear and Loathing at the Quality Inn : The Other McCain
August 5th, 2011 @ 3:16 pm

[…] and few Iowa observers expect Cain to place better than fifth at Ames.Those of you who remember my lost $10 bet with Da Tech Guy last week understand why I don’t usually do predictions. But if Cain finishes ahead of […]