The Other McCain

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Santorum Surge: New Poll Shows Gains in Iowa, Closing in on Perry, Bachmann

Posted on | December 13, 2011 | 14 Comments

The Public Policy Polling article about their latest Iowa survey doesn’t even mention Rick Santorum — instead focusing on the closing gap between Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul — but when you look closer at the numbers, something else becomes apparent:

CANDIDATE ……… Dec. 3-5 … Dec. 11-13
Newt Gingrich ………………. 27% ……. 22%
Ron Paul ……………………… 18% ……. 21%
Mitt Romney ……………….. 16% ……. 16%
Michele Bachmann ……….. 13% ……. 11%
Rick Perry ……………………  9% …….  9%
Rick Santorum ……………..  6% …….  8%
Jon Huntsman ……………..  4% …….  5%
Gary Johnson ………………  1% …….  1%

Gingrich and Bachmann have lost support in the past week, Romney and Perry are flat, and Paul and Santorum have gained ground. Santorum’s 2-point gain — 6% to 8% — may not seem like much, but consider that Perry has piled on $1 million in TV ads without any apparent effect, while Santorum is neck-and-neck without spending a dime on TV.

If the current trend continues another week, Santorum will be in fourth place, ahead of both Perry and Bachmann. And guess what?

RICK SANTORUM
‘NO SURRENDER’
MONEY BOMB

 

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Comments

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/EU5DQWQTTHTPO4A4ZYSL3AAV2U Adjoran

    In a poll with a MOE of 4.2%, a 2% move could be mere statistical noise.  It means nothing at all.  In fact, Gingrich’s entire move can be accounted for by normal deviations between the two polls.

  • jwallin

    I also hate to twinkle on your parade here but, dude, Huntsman is up also.

    I think it’s an anyone but a RINO factor more than anything.

    Perry can’t stop shooting himself in his mouth(he’s aiming at his foot but that’s there too). If he could for more than 1 or 2 appearance, HIS numbers would go back up.

    We KNOW Newt’s as trustworthy as a Hyena circling a day old dead wildebeest but he’s STILL better than Romney.

    Methinks thou dost read too much in this. 

  • http://www.leftbankofthecharles.com Charles

    If you are Mitt Romney, is it better to lose to Newt Gingrich or Ron Paul? It will certainly hurt to lose to both.

  • Zorfnog

    what amount does Stacy take from the 10 bucks?

  • http://zillablog.marezilla.com Zilla of the Resistance

    So he’s above the magic 5% but he was EXCLUDED from the Hot Air / Town Hall online primary poll anyway.

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  • http://thepagantemple.blogspot.com/ ThePaganTemple

    Karl Rove said tonight on Fox (O’Reilly I think) that he believes Rick Santorum is going to outperform expectations in Iowa, implying he might well be in the top three and come in ahead of Romney, and may even win. As if that wasn’t enough, Christine O’Donnell was on Hannity, where she endorsed-Mitt Romney. So I got two shocks tonight. Then again, Romney did endorse O’Donnell in her race, so that makes sense. And Rove is even more terrified of Newt than Stacy is, so that makes sense too. I’m learning to take all this stuff with a giant grain of salt.

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/EU5DQWQTTHTPO4A4ZYSL3AAV2U Adjoran

    Losing to both would hurt him a lot, especially if Newt takes first.  A Paul win would be a story in itself and not a win for the main competitor.

    But if the bloom falling off Newt’s rose begins to go back to Bachmann, Perry, or Santorum, and Mitt finishes 4th – which isn’t unthinkable – he’s in deep trouble early.

    Which must tick Romney off no end, since his whole strategy this cycle has been to NOT to have to do well in Iowa, not compete hard there or spend too much, and accept a top two or three finish with a shrug, then win big in New Hampshire.

  • http://thecampofthesaints.org Bob Belvedere

    If ‘The Architect’ says Mr. Santorum will do well, that makes me nervous.

  • http://thepagantemple.blogspot.com/ ThePaganTemple

    He more or less repeated the same line of reasoning Stacy uses. Who knows, maybe Rove reads TOM.

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