The Other McCain

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Santorum Leads Latest Louisiana Polls; Newt Gingrich at LSU Tonight — Maybe

Posted on | March 22, 2012 | 55 Comments

BIRMINGHAM, Alabama
Looking at the Politico candidate calendar, it’s slim pickings on the presidential campaign trail in Louisiana today: Mitt’s in DC, Rick Santorum’s got an event in San Antonio, Texas, and Newt Gingrich is scheduled for an 8 p.m. Tea Party forum at Louisiana State University in Baton Rouge. Meanwhile, we have a new Rasmussen poll:

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum is comfortably ahead in Louisiana with that state’s Republican Primary just two days away.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely GOP Primary Voters in Louisiana finds Santorum with a 12-point lead over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney – 43% to 31%. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich who has pinned his hopes on capturing other Southern states beyond South Carolina and his native Georgia runs a distant third with 16% support. Texas Congressman Ron Paul comes in last with five percent (5%).

That result is included in a press release from the Santorum campaign that also includes this:

A Magellan Strategies poll of over 2,000 likely Republican voters finds that Rick Santorum leads Mitt Romney by a 37 – 24 margin.
Republican Presidential Contest:
Santorum:         37%
Romney:           24%
Gingrich:           21%
If Gingrich is removed from the race, 61% of Gingrich’s supporters would choose Rick Santorum, while only 22% of Gingrich supporters would choose Romney.

Leading by double digits two days before Saturday’s primary, then, Santorum’s schedule currently shows just one more event in Louisiana (Friday morning in Monroe) but why doesn’t Gingrich have a full campaign schedule today? Maybe . . .

Money problems underscore challenges
for Newt Gingrich’s campaign

Newt Gingrich’s financial problems and his fourth-place finish in the Illinois primary Tuesday underscore his serious challenges going forward in his bid for the Republican presidential nomination.
Gingrich’s campaign reported that it was $1.6 million in debt at the end of February, compared with $1.5 million it held in the bank, according to campaign filings released Tuesday night. . . .

One of our longtime readers sent me an e-mail yesterday grumbling about my use of the phrase “the bankrupt Newt.” My apologies for the offense, but . . . Neutral Objective Fact. Speaking of which, the best news story I could find about Gingrich’s event in Baton Rouge tonight was in the LSU student paper, the Reveille:

Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich will make an appearance on campus Thursday at a Tea Party forum hosted by the LSU College Republicans.
The event is a Tea Party forum and straw poll, according to Austin Stukins, state grassroots coordinator for Louisiana Team Gingrich 2012. Stukins is an interior design junior at the University.
As of Tuesday afternoon, the event was planned for 8 p.m. in the Cox Auditorium. However, due to scheduling confusion, Baton Rouge Tea Party Treasurer Mark Holmes is working with Michelle Lowery, the University’s associate director for student involvement, to coordinate the event. Holmes said if the auditorium is unavailable, Lowery will book a different location.
Mark Holmes said Gingrich confirmed his appearance Tuesday afternoon. The Baton Rouge Tea Party is also extending the invitation to other presidential candidates.
Holmes said the event will include a forum and a straw poll.

It’s a 6-hour drive to Baton Rouge and I’ve got to get rolling pretty soon, but here’s some stuff to chew on:

OK, that’s it: Gotta hit the road. I’m going from Alabama to Louisiana. Banjo on the knee? Purely optional.

 




 

UPDATE: Katrina Trinko at National Review:

Newt Gingrich has been talking up his chances at the convention. But it turns out that he would need to win at least five states to be eligible to be nominated in the first round of voting at the convention, reports ABC News, something that could complicate his convention strategy significantly

Math: Secret Weapon of the “Elite Media”!

UPDATE II: Headline from The Washington Post:

Why Louisiana could stop
Romney’s Southern slide

Headline from The Other McCain:

DRUG USE RAMPANT AT WASHINGTON POST;
STAFFERS ABUSING WEIRD HALLUCINOGENS

UPDATE III: Ed Morrissey at Hot Air is not on drugs, and clearly sees what looms in Louisiana for Gingrich:

Newt Gingrich has parked himself in the Pelican State in a last-ditch effort to regain some momentum, but this [Rasmussen] poll has nothing but bad news for him. . . . There isn’t much room for him to get traction against either candidate in front of him, and a poor third-place showing in the South would probably mean the end of his campaign, especially if he can’t win any delegates in Louisiana. A shutout would end whatever credibility he has left as a candidate even in a delegate-gathering sense.


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Comments

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/EU5DQWQTTHTPO4A4ZYSL3AAV2U Adjoran

     In Los Angeles, your check arrives at the pharmacy and they cash it for you, after deducting your liquor tab and switching the Antabuse for sugar pills since you’ll never take them anyway.

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/EU5DQWQTTHTPO4A4ZYSL3AAV2U Adjoran

     Now, THAT is “convenience!”

  • Zim

     Rick Santorum is comfortably ahead in Louisiana

    If the Louisiana results mirror the latest Real Clear Politics poll, Santorum will get 14 delegates, Romney will get 6, and Gingrich and Paul will get none. That means Santorum will have shaved 2 percent off Romney’s lead of 300 delegates. There aren’t enough states left for Santorum to win at that pace. Louisiana is the last of the Santorum-friendly Bible Belt primaries. When it’s over, the race shifts to northern states, where Romney will inevitably increase his lead. The key to the GOP race is this: It’s the delegates, stupid.

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