Think Happy Thoughts!

Posted on | April 1, 2012 | 85 Comments

Today’s headlines perhaps explain why feelings of foreboding have recently overwhelmed my otherwise nearly infinite capacity for hope. In a private e-mail exchange today, I found myself explaining that what may appear to some a transient problem is, in fact, a predictable consequence of long-term trends. It occurred to me that, because I have always considered it foolish to talk strategy in public (the enemy can read our blogs, y’know), few of my readers had ever seen me in deep analytical mode, so I decided to share this excerpt:

For many years, going back to at least 2006, I have considered the problems of the conservative movement not episodic and random, but rather systemic and structural. The way the movement is organized, the incentives built into that organizational pattern, and the types of personalities that exercise influence within the system, are in some sense haphazard, reflecting the gradual accretion of institutional habit. At the same time, however, there is the factor of conscious human action involved, and thus the potential for change, if the people involved would attempt to look beneath the surface of day-to-day events and recognize how the incentives built into the system generate ineffective or counter-productive results. . . .
[T]he movement lacks a conscious, rational and critical understanding of itself from the standpoint of organizational dynamics. . . .
The system resists reform because those who benefit (or expect in the future to benefit) from the status quo are unwilling to admit that the system is flawed. Only when the outcome is clearly a failure — as it was in 2008 — is it possible to get leaders to take seriously the need for reform. Yet on such occasions the tendency is always to make ad-hoc patchwork changes, rather than to look at the deeper structural flaws of the movement in terms of organizational dynamics, and attempt to incentivize genuine success.
A major problem is the difficulty of locating the blame for failure in a system where many of the participants are experts at blame-shifting and only too eager to make unpopular scapegoats bear the responsibility of failure. This was what happened to Sarah Palin in 2008, and I claim no special prescience in saying I saw that coming and tried to warn against it. The Steve Schmidts and Nicolle Wallaces, however, had acquired influence which enabled them to manipulate perceptions in such a way that the crucial failure of the 2008 campaign — John McCain’s panicked reaction to the financial crisis — was forgotten, while Palin was unjustly blamed.
Now we come to 2012 and, if the pundits are to be believed, Mitt Romney is now the “inevitable” GOP nominee, despite the fact that he has to date received less than 40 percent of the vote in Republican primaries and caucuses. If Romney is nominated, therefore, it will be despite the opposition of GOP voters and the conservative movement. Many believe that Romney is doomed to repeat the Republican failures of 1996 and 2008 and, if those prophecies are accurate, there will be a reckoning after the November election, in which the leadership of the conservative movement will have an opportunity to examine the causes of its failures.
God forbid that it should take Mitt’s nomination and Obama’s re-election to force such a long-overdue re-evaluation, as one wonders what would be left for conservatives to conserve in the event of such unprecedented catastrophes. (“Sweet Meteor of Death 2012!”) Maybe the ancient Mayan calendar was right about this year being the end of the world. Nevertheless, if the world endures and we survive the electoral cataclysm, I will be interested in discussing exactly how we got to such a disastrous result as all the omens now portend.
On the other hand, let’s hope that the pundits and pollsters are wrong, that Rick Santorum is on the verge of a world-shocking triumph in Wisconsin, and that this “Roll Over for Romney” bandwagon can be halted before the GOP Establishment once more succeeds in saddling us with a doomed loser who will utterly demoralize whatever remnant of grassroots conservatism survives the looming debacle.

We haven’t yet scheduled “DoomCon 2012,” but if anyone is interested in sponsoring, attending or participating in such an event, holler back.

Category: Election 2012

Comments

85 Responses to “Think Happy Thoughts!”

richard mcenroe
April 1st, 2012 @ 12:20 pm

We got into this position because there’s good money in failing to solve problems, Stacy.

In many ways, the RNC , the DC GOP and their hangers-on can see it as being preferable to suffer an electoral failure this year. The solicitation letters will keep going out and the panicked GOP sheeple will keep paying in, the rent on the fine offices will be paid and the perks and party circuit will continue unabated. NRO will keep viewing with polysallabic alarm, the pundits will keep ponitificating, the conferences will keep conferring… all without the burden of actually having to deliver on any awkward campaign commitments.

Now there’s an excellent chance we are going to elect more young, active, conservatives to the House and Senate this year, and this is an unquestionable plus. But the leadership is going to be the same superannuated fossils it was in 2010: McConnell, McCain, Cornyn, Boehner, etc. Until they retire or just freaking die out, they will continue to stifle the revitalization of the GOP, because there is no place for them in that process.

We have to turf out our own dinosaurs, not just the Democrats’.
Charles
April 1st, 2012 @ 12:21 pm

You could schedule DoomCon for July 4th, just in time for the Roberts Court decision on Obamacare.

John McCain’s panicked reaction to the financial crisis has not been forgotten. What Sarah Palin got blamed for, not without some justice, was the failure to unseat Harry Reid and retake the Senate in 2010.

The Republican failures of 1992 and 2006 are the ones meriting examination. When the going gets tough, the GOP can’t count on conservatives. That’s the structural problem.
PaulLemmen
April 1st, 2012 @ 12:36 pm

The disease of progressivism is at the root of these problems. The brain delusions produced by the spores of progressivism infect and delude even the (formerly) staunchest conservatives. The longer they are exposed to this invasive ideology, the greater the damage. The only cure is frequent doses of the founding documents of this great Republic administered by We the People.
Sadly, the spores of progressivism infect a large portion of the electorate too.
PaulLemmen
April 1st, 2012 @ 12:41 pm

As long as it doesn’t conflict with FedoraCon …
smitty
April 1st, 2012 @ 12:43 pm

Like I’ve been telling you for years now, Stacy: “People don’t scale”.
The thesis of your excerpt could be phrased as a question, “Why do organizations act like organizations?”, with the obvious response, “Because they are organizations.”

The task of America 3.0, then, is going to be to increase participation in politics and minimize the nasty effects of political parties and the nasty party animals that they drag in.
robertstacymccain
April 1st, 2012 @ 12:50 pm

Actually, I’m still holding out hope that Romney can be stopped. If that proves a forlorn hope, however, I think we might actually do a series of DoomCons:

DoomCon I: How F–d Are We?
Immediately after Romney clinches the nomination, we will gather to discuss the dim prospects for defeating Obama with this clueless dilbert as the GOP nominee.

DoomCon II: Yeah, We’re Hopelessly F–d
During the Tampa convention, we will gather to re-affirm that, despite all the hype from the GOP’s publicity machine, we are in fact still doomed in November.

DoomCon III: See, We Told You We Were F—d
In late October, once the polls show Romney losing by an insuperable margin, we will re-convene to remind everyone that we predicted this incipient wipeout for the GOP.

DoomCon IV: Why Didn’t You Believe Us When We Warned You We Were F–d?
On Wednesday, Nov. 7, our final event will involve naming the names of the eminent idiots who claimed, despite all evidence to the contrary, that Mitt ever had a snowball’s chance in hell.
richard mcenroe
April 1st, 2012 @ 1:06 pm

The GOP can’t count on CONSERVATIVES?!

http://youtu.be/6e1hZGDaqIw

Who do you think gets out and walks the precincts for candidates? Moderates? They can’t be bothered? Independents? They can’t read the door numbers. It’s conservatives and socons.

Who do you think mans the phone banks? Moderates? Hell no, Dancing with Stars is on. Besides, someone might yell at them. Independents? They can’t sit still that long with the ADHD.

We have shown up again and again and gotten more and more deeply screwed for our trouble. In exchange for our efforts we get GOP “leaders” like McCain and Rove sneering at us on the networks, even ‘our’ network, Fox, while the supporters of the GOP’s annointed candidate Romney tell us to just fall in line with a Massachusetts liberal.

And BTW, WTF is up with our big deal conservative Ryan with the hotcha budget plan endorsing the guy who raised taxes on business $700 mil in MA, never mind implementing ORomneycare? Rubio is less of a surprise; he’s been blowing off the Tea Party and conservatives since they elected him. But that’s that’s the kind of thing conservatives remember about the GOP.
Tom Callow
April 1st, 2012 @ 1:07 pm

Organizations spawned Mitt and Schmidt and Wallace. There are very smart organized people running the organizations, making salaries and connections to other organizations and inroads into cultural and news organizations.
All of that is the exact opposite of what drives Tea Partiers.
Individualism and Organizationism ( community or otherwise ) are like oil and water, and all the rules set forth in local and state authorities only help and support the organizations. See the meandering rules of Ohio and Virginia ballot requirements for examples.
Gingrich and Santorum relied on self and individuals and the cards were stacked against them all over the map, due to Entrenched Organizations and Rules that only support them.
To ask individuals to suppress themselves and BECOME the new organizations is like asking Ted Nugent to never shoot a gun again ‘for the good of the children’. It not only does not make sense but it goes against the grain for so many.
Stacy is right, DoomCon is the way to go, that and a lot of gold and survivalist supplies for the years ahead.
Shelleys Playtime
April 1st, 2012 @ 1:28 pm

I am assuming there will be plenty of adult beverages at these events : )
William_Teach
April 1st, 2012 @ 1:43 pm

We could combine Doom and Fedora. And the best place would be at the beach, as we watch the seas rise to swamp our convention while drinking Tequila!
Jerry Stratton
April 1st, 2012 @ 1:45 pm

There’s always June 2: Mitt Romney’s Day.
Shelleys Playtime
April 1st, 2012 @ 2:00 pm

I might not be as schooled as most of the regulars that post here but I do have an opinion, a vote, and my own perception of things.

Political Correctness, ushered in by the Clintons, weakened the Republicans. Since the Clintons that weakness has turned to fear. ‘We’ became so afraid of how the media or Dems would spin something that we lost our voice. In my humble opinion that is what gave rise to the TEA Party (along with other things) That is why so many were ignited with passion after Palin was picked my McKing. She was a breath of fresh air that told us where she stood and how she felt. (and why I liked Cain) It did not matter whether we agreed with her point by point, what mattered is that we knew where she stood. (which is why I am not happy that she backed Newt, especially after the Dee Dee fiasco)

I am surprised that the GOP did not ‘re-evaluate’ after 08’…sighs, or am I?

I STILL really think we need revamp how we vote in the primaries. If the states voted at the same time it would eliminate: the power struggle between the states, a lot of the media’s & the GOPs manipulation, & the influence of skewed polls.

There has to be a better way than disenfranchising millions of voters by calling a game in the 6th inning.
rosalie
April 1st, 2012 @ 2:14 pm

With that schedule, I would think that drinking “adult beverages” would be a must.
richard mcenroe
April 1st, 2012 @ 2:18 pm

This may be the worst April Fool’s ever based on the sheer stupidity of at least one of the comments, but RedState To Founder to join Democratic Party?
richard mcenroe
April 1st, 2012 @ 2:27 pm

No, it’s great! It’ll really motivate us to get out there and fight for the party. Like the Egyptian army in ’67….

They did evaluate. And a large part of the party leadership decided it was more important to whip us back into line than to win elections.
rosalie
April 1st, 2012 @ 2:30 pm

We continue to vote for RINOS but expect different results. The ultimate slap in the face would be if Romney chooses Christie or yet another RINO for VP. Rubio’s doing exactly what I thought he would do. He’s worked his way up fast to being part of the Establishment clique.
Quartermaster
April 1st, 2012 @ 2:40 pm

DoomCon is already scheduled for Tampa this summer. It’s rumored that Mittens, this year’s prospective RINO loser, is the keynote speaker.
Adjoran
April 1st, 2012 @ 2:40 pm

So Santorum and Gingrich didn’t come from the same party organization that McCain and Romney did?

Interesting theory.
Andy Jones
April 1st, 2012 @ 2:41 pm

There is little visible overlap between “Conservative” and “Republican Leadership”. You might see it with some really high – end surveillance equipment.

Republican Leadership treats “conservatives” in a fashion indistinguishable from the Left and their Black bloc vote.

And no, I’m not talking anarchists.
richard mcenroe
April 1st, 2012 @ 2:43 pm

Of course, as an eeeeevile conservateive, I see the profit opportunity here, investing in “Don’t Blame Me, I voted for Rick” Bumperstickers. Of course, the effin’ GOP is gonna kill the market for those in twenty-plus states…
Adjoran
April 1st, 2012 @ 2:55 pm

How are any of these results of “organizational dynamics,” and how would you alter them to get different results?

In 2008, we had a very collapsed, front-loaded cycle. McCain, who had entered 2007 with plenty of money, burned through it all early and had to fire most of his staff and retool his campaign completely, but he came back in time to win NH, SC, and FL, and was the nominee.

In 2012, in reaction, the primary calendar is more drawn-out. And – voila! – the campaign lasts longer, but you don’t like the result any better than the last cycle.

Neither Schmidt and Wallace’s betrayals or McCain’s colossal blunder (he was within the MOE when he suspended his campaign, and the race had been within it since the convention) had anything to do with “organizational dynamics,” they were individual failures.

Unless your plan is to eliminate human beings from the process entirely, it remains unclear how any reorganization could possibly correct those failings.

In fact, without some sort of specific analysis of the organizational dynamics and suggestions for improvements, it sounds like you are using a bunch of jargon to mask your disappointment that your candidate lost, which is your only real complaint.

Ask yourself: if the vote totals and delegate numbers had been reversed and Santorum won the nomination with 40% or so of the popular votes, would you be complaining the system was dysfunctional and his victory illegitimate and fretting about the future of the movement? In a pig’s eye!

Sounds to me like your complaint is about the result, not the process or the “organizational dynamics” (however you choose to define them, if you ever do).
Dianna Deeley
April 1st, 2012 @ 3:06 pm

Can we first win the election – never mind that it’s Romney – and then determine just how doomed we are?

I cannot bear the thought of four more years of Obama “flexibility.” With Putin, for pity’s sake!
Charles Martel
April 1st, 2012 @ 3:08 pm

“Immediately after Romney clinches the nomination, we will gather to discuss the dim prospects for defeating Obama with this clueless dilbert as the GOP nominee.”

So, it is your view that Santorum has a better chance at beating BO than the “clueless dilbert,” Romney? This in spite of the fact that Santorum failed to get himself reelected in PA running as an incumbent, and has so far polled only 2.9 million Republican votes against 4.1 million for Romney in the primaries.

I’m inclined to agree with your clueless dilbert comment about Romney, but do you really, really, honest injun think Rick is any better?
Shelleys Playtime
April 1st, 2012 @ 3:09 pm

IF Mitt is the nominee and loses to Obama, it will be all of the NOT-Romney voters fault for not rallying around him the day he announced he was running (way back in 08′ wasn’t it…lol)
ThePaganTemple
April 1st, 2012 @ 3:16 pm

The problem is, conservatives just don’t spend enough time getting to know all the candidates, not even the conservative ones.

Hey, I have a plan though, one that will maybe keep us from repeating these mistakes in the future. So when 2016 rolls along, here’s what we should do.

First we support the female conservative. Then let’s support the southern governor for a while. After that, let’s get behind the good Christian conservative guy with the big family. After that, let’s get behind the brilliant guy that does good at the debates. When he has a debate where he doesn’t do as good, let’s go back to supporting the good Christian man. Maybe then the good debater will get back on his game, so we can go back to supporting him for a while. But then of course we should go back to supporting the good Christian family man.

That way we can get to know all of them. All we have to do is hope we have about nine or ten moderates to split the RINO vote.
Shelleys Playtime
April 1st, 2012 @ 3:39 pm

“In 2012, in reaction, the primary calendar is more drawn-out. And –
voila! – the campaign lasts longer, but you don’t like the result any
better than the last cycle.”

I don’t, but it is not because of the length of the process. In case you haven’t noticed the ‘more’ conservative candidates were bumped off by the media and were given no defense or support by any of the establishment Republicans. This has become a NOT-Romney primary, and the only viable NOT-Romney candidate left is Santorum.
PaulLemmen
April 1st, 2012 @ 4:08 pm

Being that I live in St Pete, literally minutes from the convention venue (and know the locations of all the beaches where one can drink without fear of police intervention) I think that might be a very good solution. Beer, whisky, tequila, fresh seafood and bikini’ed babes … all wearing Fedoras (natch). We can combine the world ending party while being Breitbart in a Fedora. Interesting concept …
Mick Stockinger
April 1st, 2012 @ 4:09 pm

Well I guess I don’t have to read this column anymore, and that about sums up the state of the Republican party.

I thought I was a conservative, but according to McCain and his holier-than-thou contingent, I’m little or not different from an Occupier.

The exit polls don’t lie. Romney isn’t losing the conservative vote, he’s losing the anti-Mormon vote. Santorum has won all the states with a super-majority of Evangelicals as a demographic. Where Evangelicals were less than 50%, Romney won.

Evangelicals may be conservative, but they aren’t THE conservatives. They are simply silly bumpkins whose religious bigotry makes them crazy enough to support mentally unstable candidates like Gingrich and Santorum.

If Romney loses, it’s because of you assholes. Because you would prefer the country burn if you can’t have your theocracy.
Adjoran
April 1st, 2012 @ 4:10 pm

The Party DID revamp the process after 2008 so it wouldn’t be so front-loaded. Now it is far more spaced out.

A single national primary would eliminate any candidate who couldn’t raise $10-15 million BEFORE the vote. Who besides Romney and Perry could have done that? Among those who actually ran, I mean?
PaulLemmen
April 1st, 2012 @ 4:12 pm

Delusion much?
ThePaganTemple
April 1st, 2012 @ 4:25 pm

You’re reading way too much into Romney being a Mormon and not nearly enough into him being a moderate to liberal northeastern Governor who supported state run medical care, Cap And Trade, and gun control, and even at one point spoke favorably about Pro-Choice (ie, abortion).

Having said that, conservatives have no one to blame but themselves for being unable to coalesce around a single strong, conservative candidate. It’s much like when Bush insisted that the Palestinians should hold free elections. That would have been fine and dandy if the Fatah Party had run one candidate. But they didn’t. A multitude of candidates ran on the Fatah ticket and as independents. In the meantime, what did Hamas do? They run a disciplined campaign supporting a slate of delegates which acted and campaigned in unison under one banner, ticket, and policies.

The result was predictable. Hamas won the election running away and Bush was left looking like an idiot, in this case rightly so.

That is called reality biting you on the ass. And conservatives need to take a lesson from that. If you insist on supporting the Fatah wing of the GOP, then you need not expect the unexpected, and might as well resign yourself to the reality that, more often than not, the Hamas wing of the GOP is going to win it running away.
rosalie
April 1st, 2012 @ 4:39 pm

I had no idea we were “holier-than-thou”. I just thought we were regular people expressing our views and sometimes just plain venting. Anyway, when you have to resort to calling people who have different opinions than you “assholes”, then I think you need a rest from reading blogs. As frustrated as you are, that’s how frustrated we are; so it works both ways. And you know what, I don’t think you are a Conservative.
ThePaganTemple
April 1st, 2012 @ 5:02 pm

You’re reading way too much into Romney being a Mormon and not nearly enough into him being a moderate to liberal northeastern Governor who supported state run medical care, Cap And Trade, and gun control, and even at one point spoke favorably about Pro-Choice (ie, abortion).

Having said that, conservatives have no one to blame but themselves for being unable to coalesce around a single strong, conservative candidate. It’s much like when Bush insisted that the Palestinians should hold free elections. That would have been fine and dandy if the Fatah Party had run one candidate. But they didn’t. A multitude of candidates ran on the Fatah ticket and as independents. In the meantime, what did Hamas do? They run a disciplined campaign supporting a slate of delegates which acted and campaigned in unison under one banner, ticket, and policies.

The result was predictable. Hamas won the election running away and Bush was left looking like an idiot, in this case rightly so.

That is called reality biting you on the ass. And conservatives need to take a lesson from that. If you insist on supporting the Fatah wing of the GOP, then you need not expect the unexpected, and might as well resign yourself to the reality that, more often than not, the Hamas wing of the GOP is going to win it running away.
Dude, Did You Have to Diss Ann Coulter? Also: Obama Has ‘Certainly Been Massively Disappointing to Young People’ : The Other McCain
April 1st, 2012 @ 5:12 pm

[…] fired!”Part of what’s wrong with the conservative movement — and maybe we can discuss this at “DoomCon 2012″ — is a sense of insecurity that manifests itself as a craving for respectability.This […]
Shelleys Playtime
April 1st, 2012 @ 5:44 pm

Well Adjoran, I do not have all the answers. I am simply acknowledging what millions of Americans think…the set up stinks.

Maybe we should have multiple levels of voting…last one standing wins?

What are your suggestions? Or are you satisfied with the current process?

The real question is who does the current set up benefit? It certainly isn’t the majority of the voting public in America because if that was the case there would not be a blatant attempt to stop the process before someone actually wins 1144.
Shelleys Playtime
April 1st, 2012 @ 6:03 pm

In a Washington Post – ABC poll Romney is underwater with INDEPENDENTS with 52% viewing him unfavorably… I bet every one of those INDEPENDENTS are evangelicals huh?

BTW that religious bigotry meme is weak, overused, and wore out!
Bob Belvedere
April 1st, 2012 @ 6:30 pm

He would fire up the conservatives.
Bob Belvedere
April 1st, 2012 @ 6:33 pm

The Ryan endorsement was a bit of a surprise, and quite disappointing.

But the Rubio one was not. He was Speaker in Florida and you don’t become one down there without getting in bed with the same people Stacy rightfully rails against.
Bob Belvedere
April 1st, 2012 @ 6:35 pm

Smitty and Stacy: Talk to Ladd; he has some damn fine ideas.
Bob Belvedere
April 1st, 2012 @ 6:43 pm

Slightly off-topic….

I have never liked the Primary System because it was the demon spawn of the original Progressive Movement.

Are the smoke-filled rooms of legend so bad? Look at the caliber of Presidental Nominees before 1900 and after.
Bob Belvedere
April 1st, 2012 @ 6:44 pm

I’m thinking he always was.
Bob Belvedere
April 1st, 2012 @ 6:47 pm

Sorry QM, but we conservatives have the copyright on doom – just ask ask John Derbyshire.
Bob Belvedere
April 1st, 2012 @ 6:49 pm

I would still be complaining.

Me likey the smoke-filled rooms.
Bob Belvedere
April 1st, 2012 @ 6:51 pm

Don’t let the door hit you where the Good Lord split you…and put your brain.
Shelleys Playtime
April 1st, 2012 @ 7:34 pm

I suppose it would depend on who is doing the smokin’ huh? If ‘our’ guys are in there we are cool with it, but if ‘their’ guys are then we have a problem. Feels too much like what is happening now…
Tennwriter
April 1st, 2012 @ 7:49 pm

And Mitt would fire up….well, not even Mitt.
Tennwriter
April 1st, 2012 @ 7:56 pm

Don’t let the door hit you…oh, go ahead and let the door hit you.

At this point, there’s little reason to be polite to moderate RINOs, we’re DOOOOOMED.

Might as well enjoy the process of telling those anti-constitutional, nitwitted dimwit twits to git.
ThePaganTemple
April 1st, 2012 @ 8:07 pm

Beam me aboard that old Bird of Prey, its time to buck up and get behind the Romneylan Empire. All of y’all, quit your whining.
Tom Callow
April 1st, 2012 @ 8:20 pm

What about the atheist assholes, the Cain-follower assholes, the Tea Party assholes ? Why don’t we get the respect that the evengelical assholes get? I ask again do our assholes not stink enough for you ? We do not care about Mormons either, err strike that, we do not care FOR Mormons either, I mean we all hate Harry Reid don’t we ?
Us assholes all gotta stick together, sorta like the cling-ons of the movement !
What say ye all ?
Confutus
April 1st, 2012 @ 9:42 pm

Something seems to tell me you’re reading Romney wrong.
He’s not a clueless dilbert, he’s not another Bush, or McCain, or Dole, or even Obama Lite.
They aren’t heavily represented in the media, but there are conservatives who see Romney as the competent general they have been seeking for a generation and more, and have no interest in sponsoring, organizing, or attending any such event as DoomCon.