The Other McCain

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Newt’s Delaware Delusion

Posted on | April 24, 2012 | 26 Comments

When the FEC reports were released Friday, showing that Newt Gingrich ended March with $4.3 million in campaign debt, I noted talk of a comeback in today’s Delaware primary:

Alex Moe of NBC News reports that Gingrich has been spending most of his time in Delaware, which holds its primary Tuesday, and quotes “a source close to the Gingrich campaign” as saying: “Tuesday is a big day. … Newt is just waiting to see what happens on Tuesday.”
What will happen Tuesday is, Newt will lose.

Ed Morrissey devoted an entire post Monday to the theme of “Hey, maybe Newt can win Delaware,” only to conclude: Eh, so what?

Even if Gingrich managed a win, though, he would add 17 delegates to his total, thanks to the all-or-nothing allocation of the state primary. Romney will win most or all of the other 214 delegates at stake in the other primaries taking place tomorrow; Delaware is the smallest state at stake. That would move Gingrich from 140 t0 157 delegates, while Romney will easily top 800 and have perhaps as many as 870 by the end of the day tomorrow.

Newt managed to fool a lot of people into thinking his Georgia primary victory on “Super Tuesday,” March 6 was meaningful — his speech that night was all about how he was still in the hunt — so that he was still able to collect $1.7 million in contributions in March. After he lost Mississippi and Alabama on March 13, that illusion fell apart. However, Gingrich continued to pretend he was a contender up through the March 24 Louisiana primary, which was an expensive pretense that left him millions of dollars in debt by the end of the month.

The idea that a win in tiny Delaware would actually mean anything for Newt is something that I doubt even Newt himself believes. Yet Politico feels the need to cover its bases, although I remain confident that Gingrich will lose Delaware and finish no better than third anywhere else. Alex Moe of NBC is still on Newt death-watch duty:

Newt Gingrich hinted he may withdraw from the presidential race if he has a poor showing in the Delaware primary Tuesday – a state where he has been actively campaigning for several weeks.
“I think we need to take a deep look at what we are doing,” Gingrich told NBC News in an exclusive interview on Monday. “We will be in North Carolina tomorrow night and we will look and see what the results are.”
He acknowledged that he would have to “reassess” his campaign depending on how he fares in Delaware, a winner-take-all state with 17 delegates at stake.

“I think we need to take a deep look at what we are doing”? Perhaps he should have done that before he was $4 million in the hole.

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Comments

  • http://twitter.com/richard_mcenroe richard mcenroe

    When Santorum suspended his campaign, any use Romney had for a deal with Newt went away.  He should have caved, endorsed and taken the money when he had the chance. #GopRealpolitik

  • robertstacymccain

    He was delusional, period.

    About a week ago, I talked to someone who’s known Newt for more than 20 years, and when I said Newt was a narcissist, he corrected me: Megalomaniac.

    The dude genuinely thinks of himself as a Man of Destiny, a world-historic figure.

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  • http://proteinwisdom.com/ McGehee

    Georgia’s primary is practically a waste of voters’ time and taxpayers’ money. Twice in a row now our GOP delegates have gone to a candidate whose campaign promptly flamed out. If I were running for president I would campaign in Georgia by buying ad time for my biggest rival.

  • http://evilbloggerlady.blogspot.com/ Evi L. Bloggerlady

    That is exactly right.  Newt really is that nuts.  He should never be in an executive position.  

    Of course, Obama is about equally delusional.  

  • http://marezilla.com/ Zilla of the Resistance

     Richard, I am taking your advice today when I go to vote in my state’s primary: I am going to vote for Rick Santorum anyway. :) It’s my last chance to say “Not Mitt”!

  • http://thepagantemple.blogspot.com/ ThePaganTemple

    Speaking of which, no wonder Santorum suspended his campaign, I didn’t know the same day of the Pennsylvania primary was also the day, not just for Delaware, but Rhode Island, Connecticut, and-New York! And Santorum’s poll lead, at the time he dropped out, was a very slim one, and within the margin of error. He was going to have to devote his entire time and meager resources to campaigning in his home state, while the Romney juggernaut rolled through all the other states, and would maybe still win Pennsylvania. Actually, the polls were trending in Romney’s favor, so it is likely Romney would have won it. Santorum was smart enough to read the tea leaves. Even if he had won Pennsylvania, there’s no way in hell he was going to win New York, or any of the others.

    Of course, we might still have a brokered convention. As in, there’s going to be so many Romney delegates its going to look like a brokerage firm convention.

    And yes, at this stage Newt is delusional just if he thinks he has a chance to make an impact at the convention. If he thinks he actually has a chance of winning the nomination, he’s more than delusional, he’s bat shit insane.

  • Wombat_socho

     Except far less competent.

  • http://twitter.com/richard_mcenroe richard mcenroe

     We may be trapped in the stampede, but that’s no reason to march in step.  I’ll be doing the same in CA.

  • http://twitter.com/richard_mcenroe richard mcenroe

     An RNC/Bain® Production

  • http://twitter.com/richard_mcenroe richard mcenroe

     The RNC would like you to believe that.  Don’t let them discourage you on either the process or your convictions.

  • http://marezilla.com/ Zilla of the Resistance

    Now if only I could stop throwing up long enough to get out of my house and to the polls! Damn this illness! 
    It has been like this for weeks, I don’t know how much more I can stand!I’m not up to hauling the kids with me, hopefully I can get out when hubby gets home form work so I can get out alone. 

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  • PhillyCon

    Just voted for Rick in PA.  When I received a letter from the local GOP extolling the praises of Mitt, (and gleefully stating Santorum’s suspension); it was obvious what needed to done.

    It was a “peon’s” way of saying F-U to the Roves of the party, so to speak.

  • http://proteinwisdom.com/ McGehee

    It’s not a matter of belief, Richard. I’m remarking on actual results — Georgia Republican primary voters always go for candidates that aren’t going to be contenders for another week.

  • http://thepagantemple.blogspot.com/ ThePaganTemple

     So being against Santorum, who has already dropped out of the race, is the same as being for Romney, but being against Newt, who is still in the race, is not?

  • http://thepagantemple.blogspot.com/ ThePaganTemple

     And yes, I am for Romney now. As for being paid for being for Romney, I can only wish.

  • http://twitter.com/richard_mcenroe richard mcenroe

     I was referring to the convention.

  • http://knappster.blogspot.com/ Thomas L. Knapp

    “The idea that a win in tiny Delaware would actually mean anything for Newt is something that I doubt even Newt himself believes.”

    Believes? Maybe or maybe not?

    Hopes? Almost certainly.

    Any way you cut it, he’s doing the smart thing. He’s “the guy who didn’t give up” if it turns into a brokered convention. If not, he’s “the guy who didn’t give up and tried to tell you what you needed to hear four years ago, but noooo, you went with Mitt and got a Reverse Reagan/Mondale 1984 out of it, ready to listen yet?” in 2016.

    Don’t know if either of those things will work out for him, but it’s hard to blame him for trying. It’s not like the GOP is set for victory if he throws up his hands or anything.

  • Dave R

    And with 91% of precincts in, Romney has 56% of the vote in Deleware, and Gingrich has 27% (CNN called it for Romney a while ago).

  • http://marezilla.com/ Zilla of the Resistance

    I am pleased to announce that my husband was home from work during the brief period of not throwing up that I enjoyed today, and I went directly to my local polling place where I proudly filled in the dot on the ballot for RICK SANTORUM.
    I’ll be voting ABO GOP in November, but at least the record will show that there was at least one NotRomney voter remaining in New York State today! We have primaries for a reason and I am still pissed about the fact that in 2000 the NY GOP primary ballot had only ONE name on it and we did not have the opportunity to vote for anybody else, despite the fact that GWB had not yet won the nomination – the fix was in.

  • http://marezilla.com/ Zilla of the Resistance

    At least they’re still running when you get to vote, unlike here in NY where it is pretty much all over by the time we get to our primary so all we can hope to do is file a protest vote, if there’s even more than one name on the ballot.

  • http://thepagantemple.blogspot.com/ ThePaganTemple

     Gingrich has been laying the groundwork for a presidential run since the last election, constantly traveling to Iowa. His campaign this year has read like a horror story ever since Santorum beat him in Alabama and Mississippi, and again in Louisiana. Newt Gingrich, killed by a dead man.

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  • http://proteinwisdom.com/ McGehee

    I grew up in California where the primary election was always in June, including the presidential primary. They moved it up in presidential years, but now I believe they’ve gone back to June.