The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

SCOTUS ObamaCare Office-Pool Bet

Posted on | June 28, 2012 | 11 Comments

FROM AN UNDISCLOSED LOCATION
The thing about being dug in on a story — in the six weeks since May 17, I’ve done 61 entries in “The Kimberlin Files” — is that you ignore a lot of what would otherwise be Urgent Breaking News.

Late last night, I was checking Ace of Spades HQ, and it was nearly wall-to-wall ObamaCare SCOTUS ruling speculation.

Does the phrase “useless as tits on a boar hog” ring a bell?

Seriously: Who gives a damn? What possible difference could all this second-guessing make? The court will rule whatever the court rules, without regard for what a bunch of bloggers say about it.

I know, I know: Turn on the TV and all the talking-heads on Fox News are engaged in Very Serious Discussions about the case and its potential political impact. So let’s turn our blogs into little online imitations of a cable-TV pundit panel: Every man his own Krauthammer.

Look at this ridiculous gibberish, for example:

I think we all are pretty sure that Roberts will write an opinion, and Ginsberg will write the other opinion. What we don’t know is who’s writing for the minority, and who’s writing the actual holding.
I argued with this with Drew. If Kennedy has flipped to the liberals, he might permit Ginsberg to write the majority holding. Perhaps he is a Faint-Heart who thinks liberals will be mad at him, and so will vote with them, but doesn’t really believe in that vote all that much, and so will let Ginsberg write it.
But the Hot Air post reminds that Kennedy is fairly conservative as far as federalism, so: Even if he cast his vote with the liberals, he’d likely want to write the majority opinion to limit it. Even if he sided with the liberals, he wouldn’t want to sign over carte-blanche for more of this nonsense. He’d want to say “health care is unique, and don’t go trying anything else along these lines.”
Then again, I suppose that Ginsberg could agree with such an opinion, if it means she gets to deliver President Precious his Big Win.
But I would say — my guess — is that it’s probably 5-4 to overturn, with Roberts in the majority, Ginsberg in the minority.

Are you proud of that, Ace? Competing in the SCOTUS-Wonk Derby?

It’s like “Veepstakes” talk, if you see what I mean. For about three months now, everybody’s rattling their yaps about who Romney’s going to pick as his running mate, as if what a bunch of TV pundits say on the subject is anything other than a cheap and harmless way to fill 10 minutes of airtime for the amusement of hard-core political junkies.

Ultimately, it’s moot: Romney picks whoever he picks, and all those hours of “Veepstakes” speculation? Just so much wasted time, like one of those silly reality shows, as if it really matters to anyone who gets “fired” by the Donald on Celebrity Apprentice.

Your thing on whether the Politico pre-spin indicates the White House knows they’ll get a bad ruling from SCOTUS, that’s kinda fun. And I also like how you jacked ‘em up with this one:

Dudes, the opinion was at the printer days ago.  The conference vote was like two months ago.  The opinions were finished, edited, and proofed like three weeks ago.

Exactly. And thus all the pundit speculation is like kids on Christmas Eve, hoping Santa Claus will bring them a pony.

My $20 says 5-4 to strike down the mandate, but 5-4 the other way on the rest, to permit a salvage attempt on what’s left of ObamaCare, with Kennedy mumbling something about the need to recognize legislative authority, yadda, yadda.

It’s probably a lousy, ill-informed bet, and that’s the point: Who cares whether my speculation is right or wrong? Not me. Nobody at the Supreme Court is reading my blog, and it’s not as if we’re living in a democracy, where everyone’s opinion counts.

We’ve abandoned democratic self-governance, punted our sovereignty to a cabal of nine unelected legal experts — out-sourced it, really. Let’s admit it: A nation in which Celebrity Apprentice and Jersey Shore are actually profitable entertainment franchises is not a nation capable of self-governance.

Whatever the Supreme Court rules about ObamaCare, it’s irrelevant to our ultimate fate. We’re Doomed Beyond All Hope of Redemption.

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Comments

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  • PAcon12

    Come on now. We may be doomed beyond all hope of redemption, but we can at least push the doom off a few more years if Obamacare is exponged from our books. And at least we’ll die of starvation or civil war rather than having the government pull the plug on us–there’s some pride in that.

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  • Beto_Ochoa

    6-3, 6-3

  • http://evilbloggerlady.blogspot.com/ Evi L. Bloggerlady

    So you want a pool?  I have a pool for you… 

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  • http://thecampofthesaints.org Bob Belvedere

    Good points.

    I’d rather go out with my boots on, standing up like a man, then at the whim of some bureaucrat.

  • Rollory

    Absolutely correct.

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  • Quartermaster

    And Roberts shows he a contemptible individual. Tell me again how great Dubya was. Even Kennedy holds the whole thing is unconstitutional. If we ever needed to impeach and remove SCOTUS justices, this abortion proves the need. Even if Mittens wins, I don’t see repeal on the horizon. All three of the Pubbie leaders will be Progressives. Moderates, but still Progs.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_P7K7NCEIB2EWYLSLUOX6D3XN6E frank

    Stacy – I think you’re being a little hard on Ace.  A LOT of people on both sides of this issue were whistling themselves past the graveyard…as we often do when things wind up in the hands of the berobed nine.  Conservatives and libertarians have about as much success with the Supremes as the average idiot playing keno…yet we hope.  We hope because all we have is hope most of the time.