Nate Silver: Almost 2-to-1 Chance Republicans Win Senate Majority

Posted on | September 8, 2014 | 45 Comments

The poll guru himself phrases it as a percentage — 65.1% — but the overall situation looks very good for the GOP:

The bottom line is not much has changed. The FiveThirtyEight forecast model gives Republicans a 65.1 percent chance of winning the Senate with the new polling added, similar to the 63.5 percent chance that our previous forecast gave them on Friday.
But the path to a Republican majority is becoming a little clearer — and the problem for Democrats is that it runs through six deeply red states.
Republicans have long been favored to win back the seats in Montana, West Virginia and South Dakota, three states where Democratic incumbents have retired. Montana and West Virginia are virtual locks for Republicans. South Dakota is slightly less certain only because of the presence of a third-party candidate, the former Republican Senator Larry Pressler. However, Pressler was at only 6 percent of the vote in the YouGov poll, lower than in other recent surveys.
The GOP’s next two easiest targets are in Louisiana and Arkansas, where the Democratic incumbents Mary Landrieu and Mark Pryor are struggling with electorates that have turned much redder since their tenure in office began.

After going through the key races state-by-state, Silver says:

But we shouldn’t lose sight of the big picture. Republicans can win the Senate solely by winning Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia, states which voted for Mitt Romney over Barack Obama by an average of 19 percentage points in 2012.

(Via Memeorandum.) This isn’t saying the GOP is a lead-pipe cinch, however. Two months is a long time in politics, and the Democrats will unleash hell between now and Nov. 4. Still, with the fall campaign season in full swing, the basic advantages belong to Republicans, and polls show that the Senate majority is within the GOP’s reach.

Category: Election, Polls, Senate

Comments

45 Responses to “Nate Silver: Almost 2-to-1 Chance Republicans Win Senate Majority”

DeadMessenger
September 8th, 2014 @ 4:14 pm

Anything to emasculate Harry Reid….oh, wait…
WarEagle82
September 8th, 2014 @ 4:39 pm

As if an eGOP Senate would actually change our lurch toward the left. Mitch & friends will simply have a larger surrender party after caving on all important legislation.
Western Gunowner
September 8th, 2014 @ 4:42 pm

Great, so the Republicans win.
We put the party of STUPID back in control of Congress rather than the party of EVIL.
I guess that is a net gain for the American people.
But for some reason it doesn’t make me feel all warm and fuzzy.
Huh?
September 8th, 2014 @ 4:53 pm

How far right do you have to be to call McConnel a leftist? He is the antithesis of liberal, and the embodiment of old, white, conservative on every issue there is.
Huh?
September 8th, 2014 @ 5:08 pm

The democrats are the party of evil compared to the GOP? Lol! Really?
Evi L. Bloggerlady
September 8th, 2014 @ 5:13 pm

Nice try troll.
Evi L. Bloggerlady
September 8th, 2014 @ 5:14 pm

What are you using for bait for trolling…because it is not working.
Huh?
September 8th, 2014 @ 5:30 pm

Nice try? How does anyone call McConnell a leftist? Did you not hear the tapes of his talk at the Koch conference? He’s as hard right as they get.
Huh?
September 8th, 2014 @ 5:31 pm

Yes, the party of Cheney, Rumsfeld, and Rush Limbaugh are committed to the highest ideals, and the common good.
Quartermaster
September 8th, 2014 @ 5:44 pm

Really.
Quartermaster
September 8th, 2014 @ 5:45 pm

C’mon, Kentucky, ditch Mitch! Looks like we don’t need him.
Huh?
September 8th, 2014 @ 5:46 pm

No. The GOP is the party of old, evil, reactionary politics.
Quartermaster
September 8th, 2014 @ 5:46 pm

Wrong question. “How far left to you have to be to see Mitch as a flaming right-wing nut?”

Answer: You have to be an insane leftist to see Mitch as anything like a right winger. He’s a moderate leftist, like all of the GOPe.
McGehee
September 8th, 2014 @ 5:48 pm

Because the things he says when he’s trying to raise money tell us all we need to know about what he does as Senate Majority Leader, which is somehow obscured by a Wizard of Oz-style curtain of mystery so that no one can see why we call him Mush.
Huh?
September 8th, 2014 @ 5:48 pm

I don’t see him as a right wing but, especially considering the actual right wing nuts you have in your party, but to call him “left” is idiotic.

Stick to the facts as opposed to making idiotic assumptions about me.
McGehee
September 8th, 2014 @ 5:49 pm

Go away, Schmalfeldt.
Huh?
September 8th, 2014 @ 5:49 pm

*as a right wing nut

he’s most certainly right wing on every issue though
McGehee
September 8th, 2014 @ 5:50 pm

On the internet no one can tell you’re a dog — until you start humping legs and sniffing butts.

Down, boy. Bad dog.
Huh?
September 8th, 2014 @ 5:51 pm

So, McConnell supports healthcare reform, gay marriage, military reductions, progressive income tax. etc? No. He’s a conservative, dummy. Sad that someone has to argue reality with you.
Huh?
September 8th, 2014 @ 5:53 pm

He was speaking to a private audience, and invited. It’s when they don’t think they’re being recorded is when they’re the most honest. What issue is he left on?
Huh?
September 8th, 2014 @ 5:55 pm

as hominem as usual because conservatives can’t honestly argue anything.
Quartermaster
September 8th, 2014 @ 6:25 pm

The reactionaries are all on the left. The GOPe are just as reactionary as the insane left, of which you are a paid up member.
Quartermaster
September 8th, 2014 @ 6:26 pm

For you to say he’s not a leftist marks you as ill informed as the rest of the insane left.
Quartermaster
September 8th, 2014 @ 6:28 pm

You clearly have little idea where he actually stands.
Quartermaster
September 8th, 2014 @ 6:28 pm

There are people who can discuss reality with me, but you have a seriously overinflated view of yourself. The insane left is like that.
Quartermaster
September 8th, 2014 @ 6:29 pm

Ad hominem is all you’ve been slinging. When you have something serious to say, come back. Until then, all you’re doing is revealing just how uninformed and stupid you are.
Finrod Felagund
September 8th, 2014 @ 6:58 pm

Remember: rats flee a sinking ship, but trolls go down with it. Just look at the batch that showed up on this thread.
Beeblebrocs
September 8th, 2014 @ 7:05 pm

Yes. Next question?
Bob Belvedere
September 8th, 2014 @ 7:27 pm

The GOP Establishment had better not be ordering the cases of champagne just yet.

A decent number of conservatives, I think, are planning to stay home on 04 November and some of us are thinking of voting for the Democrat when he’s opposed by a McConnell/Boehner butt-sniffer.
Matthew W
September 8th, 2014 @ 7:37 pm

Ohh !
Ohh!
Ohh!
Mr. Kotter , Mr Kotter !!!
If the Republicans do win the Senate, how would we know??
Matthew W
September 8th, 2014 @ 7:38 pm

Speaking of dickless…………….
Senate Leader McLame????
Matthew W
September 8th, 2014 @ 7:44 pm

Remember to whom you are speaking.
Those people don’t think Dear Leader is left. I still her dumbasses call him a “pragmatic moderate”.
So they wouldn’t know political positioning no matter how far up their ass it went.
NeoWayland
September 8th, 2014 @ 7:47 pm

Sheesh. I’m not conservative or Republican, and even I can see you need a new script.
Evi L. Bloggerlady
September 8th, 2014 @ 8:59 pm

McConnell and Cochran will likely win their races. I would never give those two a dime. I care about GOP candidates winning Iowa, Arkansas, North Carolina, and Alaska. If we can put Colorado, Oregon, Michigan, and NH in play better. And I can give you two reasons:
Harry Reid as minority leader
Any Supreme Court vacancy
Daniel Freeman
September 8th, 2014 @ 9:47 pm

On the one hand, Democrats will stop talking about filibuster reform. On the other hand, when people ask why they’re not accomplishing anything, Democrats will no longer even need to explain the bicameral legislature, let alone the filibuster; the Republicans will inherit that song and dance (or it is possibly a dog-and-pony show).

That’s about it.
Wombat_socho
September 8th, 2014 @ 11:27 pm

Bored now. Bye, troll.
Evi L. Bloggerlady
September 8th, 2014 @ 11:41 pm

Mitch, Cochran, and other establish cons are mush, but if we can get Reid out as majority leader we can mitigate some of the harm Obama can cause before he is out. If only to block Supreme Court nominees it is worth it.

Don’t waste money on bastards like Mitch or Cochran, but Tom Cotton or Dan Sullivan (for example) are much better than their democrat alternatives.
DeadMessenger
September 9th, 2014 @ 2:36 am

I wouldn’t call the Repubs the party of stupid, so much as the party of now-what-did-I-do-with-my-balls-I-know-I-left-them-here-somewhere? Or honey-do-you-have-my-balls-I-can’t-find-them?

But the Democrat/Leftist/Progressives are definitely the party of evil, I think that’s been adequately established.

Personally, I don’t really trust either an elephant or a donkey, I only trust a Lion. The Lion of Judah.
Daniel Freeman
September 9th, 2014 @ 3:47 am

Oregon is not in play. D.C.ers imagine that it must be, because Merkley is kind of goofy; but he leans libertarian on the Y-axis (holding the panopticon security state to task), he tackled procedural issues (such as the filibuster) as a freshman, and the Oregon G.O.P. is epically incompetent.
Lockstein13
September 9th, 2014 @ 7:13 am

Dump McConnell and Thad “Mississippi” Cochran, and we’re good to go.

TO ANY RINO DEFENDER, please TELL ME: just how would a McConnell-led Senate be substantially different (no, “having a budget” doesn’t count) from what we have now?
Quartermaster
September 9th, 2014 @ 7:52 am

” …the Oregon G.O.P. is epically incompetent.”
Kinda like the national GOP, eh?
John F
September 9th, 2014 @ 10:06 am

It doesn’t matter. There are so many RINOs in the party today that a Republican Senate will be the same crony capitalist, amnesty supporting, big government hellhole it is today.
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K-Bob
September 10th, 2014 @ 12:38 pm

I hope to hell Joan Rivers willed them her balls.
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