The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

Is Governor Palin Running in 2012?

Posted on | May 26, 2011 | 26 Comments

Earlier this month, Fox News ended its contracts with GOP presidential candidates Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum. The network also reportedly delivered an ultimatum to Mike Huckabee that he, too, must decide: Either give up his Fox show or disavow a 2012 presidential run.

When Sarah Palin chose then to continue her contract with Fox, I deduced that she had decided not to be a candidate in 2012. Three weeks later, however, observers have started chattering over several signals that Palin may decide to jump into the race soon. Jim Rutenberg and Jeff Zeleny of the New York Times summarize the developments:

Sarah Palin is fortifying her small staff of advisers, buying a house in Arizona — where associates have said she could base a national campaign — and reviving her schedule of public appearances. The moves are the most concrete signals yet that Ms. Palin, the former governor of Alaska, is seriously weighing a Republican presidential bid.
While it is by no means clear that she would be willing to give up her lucrative speaking career and her perch as an analyst on Fox News to face the scrutiny and combat that would come with her entrance into the race, she is being pressed by supporters for a decision and has acknowledged that time is running out.

The biggest news is the forthcoming pro-Palin documentary, The Undefeated, and the news that the movie will premiere in Iowa — well, well, well.

NBC’s team analyzes the question of who would be helped or hurt by a Palin candidacy. Their conclusion that it would spark a rally to Mitt Romney by the GOP Establishment, desperate to stop Palin at any cost, is probably sound. The original “Palin Twibe” activist, Lisa Graas has her own analysis of the impact.

The latest polls show Romney and Palin virtually neck-and-neck among GOP voters. The problem for Palin now is that Romney has been virtually running since 2008, and that the primary field is now crowded by other candidates who’ve spent the past seven months lining up staff and volunteers in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and other states. The longer she waits, the slimmer the pickings would be when she finally does get in (if she does). Scott Conroy of Real Clear Politics appeared on CBS to discuss the possible Palin campaign:

Doug Brady notes the dismissive attitude of CBS’s Jan Crawford, “a now-familiar mainstream media narrative that’s as predictable as it is delusional.” This narrative — that Palin is damaged goods who would be a certain loser against Obama in 2012 — can only be disproven in one way: By Palin getting into the campaign, winning the GOP nomination, and getting elected in November 2012.

The question, then: How badly does Palin want to disprove that narrative?


Comments are closed.