The Other McCain

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Will the Last Democrat Leaving Missouri Please Turn Out the Lights?

Posted on | July 28, 2012 | 41 Comments

The state that once gave America such powerful Democrats as Harry Truman and Dick Gephardt is now turning deep, deep Republican red:

Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) trails all three of her potential Republican rivals, according to a new survey conducted for two Missouri news outlets, cementing her status as this cycle’s most vulnerable incumbent.
Businessman John Brunner (R) holds the largest advantage over McCaskill, leading by a 52 perent to 41 percent margin. Former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman (R) leads by a 49 percent to 41 percent margin. And Rep. Todd Akin (R) leads by a 49 percent to 44 percent margin.
McCaskill’s big problems come among independent voters. She scores just 40 percent among independents against Akin, and she’s mired in the mid-30s when she’s matched up with Brunner and Steelman.

Doug Powers points out that Romney leads Obama by nine points in Missouri. In 2008, Obama came within 4,000 votes of winning Missouri.

So if Obama is running eight points behind his 2008 margin in Missouri, what are his chances of carrying other Midwest states like Ohio, Indiana, Wisconsin and Iowa? Not too good, I’d guess.

(Hat-tip: Memeorandum.)


41 Responses to “Will the Last Democrat Leaving Missouri Please Turn Out the Lights?”

  1. Evi L. Bloggerlady
    July 28th, 2012 @ 7:13 pm

    We still need a certain person to close this deal.  I would not be patting ourselves on the back just yet…  

    Or as Glenn Reynolds would say:  “Don’t get cocky!”  

  2. McGehee
    July 28th, 2012 @ 7:14 pm

    I think the question should have been, “Will the last Missourian leaving the Democrat Party please schedule a full-tent fumigation on the headquarters?”

  3. Peter Ingemi
    July 28th, 2012 @ 7:16 pm

    “Ride right through them…etc etc etc”

  4. ReaganTMan
    July 28th, 2012 @ 7:20 pm

    Ohio is going to be a dog fight. Romney’s going to have to smear Obama bad and fight a dirty fight if he’s going to win Ohio.  The future of America as we know it looks like it’s going to be riding on Ohio.

  5. Taxpayer1234
    July 28th, 2012 @ 7:21 pm

    Dems losing  = excrement leaving the body.

  6. GlockLady
    July 28th, 2012 @ 7:33 pm

    In Missouri’s defense, the only really blue areas [as with most states] are KC, StLouis and the state cap Jeff City. Lots of voter fraud in KC & StL. 

  7. DaveO
    July 28th, 2012 @ 7:40 pm

    Missouri has 2 Progressive bookends: KCMO and St. Louis. Don’t be so quick to dismiss the power of the cities and dead people.

  8. MrPaulRevere
    July 28th, 2012 @ 8:17 pm

    As a resident of Missouri I’m fairly sure I speak for many when I say shes perceived here as a clownish buffoon who is not up to the job, much like the President himself. Another little known fact is that her first husband was shot to death in a drug deal gone bad. Suffice to say my contempt for her is boundless:

  9. Adjoran
    July 28th, 2012 @ 9:14 pm

    Most of the DC crowd of pundits looks at the polls as close and expect a close election.

    But they seem to discount the fact that Obama is stuck around 46% in most of them, even in battleground state polls, even when leading Romney.  Incumbents polling under 50% are traditionally not reelected.  Bush was under most of the 2004 campaign, but within the margin of error of 50-51% – and strengthened near the end, although very slightly.  And he had economic growth rebounding to help.

    As for the economic trend this year, just look at the garbage:

  10. higgins1990
    July 29th, 2012 @ 6:57 am

    …and over 8% unemployment.  If a Republican president had such numbers, the MSM would be broadcasting eulogies every day.  But since we have a progressive president, the race is “close”.

  11. Stella Baskomb
    July 29th, 2012 @ 8:31 am

    “Romney’s going to have to smear Obama bad and fight a dirty fight if he’s going to win Ohio.”

    In other words, Romney will  have to actually QUOTE Obama and CITE HIS RECORD.

    Yes, a despicable tactic fer shur.

  12. Millie_Woods
    July 29th, 2012 @ 8:48 am

    You have to ask how these people get elected in the first place.

    The best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with a typical voter. –Winston Churchill– (loosely)

  13. b5blue
    July 29th, 2012 @ 8:49 am

     Bingo.  Must curry polling favor with Dear Leader.

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  15. Dan
    July 29th, 2012 @ 9:12 am

    All Romney really has to do is point out the projected costs for energy based on the current EPA regulations.  I think I read it was somewhere around 200% above current costs (and Ohio gets cold in the winter).  Then add the fact that the EPA is constantly harrassing the mining industry to block innovations that increase production of all fossil fuels.

    The people in Ohio better hope that climate change makes the winds blow very hard and the sun stays up 24 hours a day to offset this loss with “green” technology.

  16. ronnor
    July 29th, 2012 @ 9:30 am

    In the Central Valley of California some cities have an unemployment of over 30%, there will be a lot of cities going bankrupt.  California used to lead in innovation but with the ‘New Democrat’, Communist, Anarchist coalition in power they are fast leading in Obama Food Stamp and welfare.

  17. Nan231
    July 29th, 2012 @ 9:48 am

    And then they will look to the feds (aka the taxpayers in middle American) to bail their sorry liberal a**es out of hoc just like their deal leader is doing now.  When we make them pay for their liberal decisions we will finally see a return to conservatism. 

  18. JC
    July 29th, 2012 @ 10:26 am

    Too many of us in Missouri went to her “Town Hall ” style health care forums and listened to her lie openly to our faces.  She must have though we were uninformed as many of those who vote Democratic are as they listen to the main stream media.   The week after I heard her say something against single payer she announced the following week “frankly, I am for single payer”   She, like Obama, doesn’t know how to tell the truth

  19. Evi L. Bloggerlady
    July 29th, 2012 @ 10:33 am

    I just posted your comment to my post on Romney (linked in my other comment).  Well said.  

  20. DaveO
    July 29th, 2012 @ 11:09 am

    True, so expect the pollsters to start putting out numbers above 50% for Obama in the coming weeks.

    Money talks, and America listens.

  21. cbinflux
    July 29th, 2012 @ 12:42 pm

    Now, if we could just vote out those to her far left. John McCain, Lindsey Graham and Lamar Alexander, for instance! RINOs are a cancer that must be removed!!!

  22. Rob
    July 29th, 2012 @ 12:44 pm

    Exactly, which is the only reason Obama came as close as he did to taking Missouri in 2008. Honestly though, as piss-poor a campaigh as McCain ran last time around if it hadn’t been forPain stirring up he hard core right in Missouri, he wouldn’t have won at all.

  23. Ken Watson
    July 29th, 2012 @ 1:28 pm

    Moby much?

  24. Ken Watson
    July 29th, 2012 @ 1:31 pm

    I didn’t realize McCaskill was on such thin ice. Good news indeed. Since it looks like any Rep on the bench could beat her I hope the more conservative elements are going to insist on someone other than a RINO, whoever that may be in this field.

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  26. Lina Inverse
    July 29th, 2012 @ 2:44 pm

     Heh.  But the case is seriously overstated, look at our Democratic governor.  He’s pretty conservative.  Pro-gun, is running on a platform of not raising taxes during these harsh fiscal times, has proactively decreased state government payrolls and shot down offices, has handled the funding of higher education cleverly, etc. etc.  Now, if he just hadn’t vetoed a Voter ID bill we’d be seriously considering voting for him; can’t remember the last time anyone in my family voted Democratic in a major race after my Catholic mother voted for JFK in 1960, which at the time wasn’t clearly a mistake to the average well read citizen.

    McCaskill is another matter altogether.  She beat Jim Talent in a close race in 2006 by seeking every Democratic vote in the state, especially from the normally neglected Red or ulta-Red portions.  Since then she hasn’t acquitted herself well, e.g. the first time the Tea Party protested outside of one of her offices they closed the blinds and called the police.  Since then she’s wised up, but minor details like failing to play $280,000 in state taxes on her private airplane, her her bad votes, and the need to elect as many Republicans to the national Senate will almost certainly sink her.

    But as noted by others, the Blue State parts of Missouri will keep electing Democrats, and our governor has shown the party can be competitive at the state level.  I won’t vote for him, but I won’t be upset if he wins reelection.

  27. Bob Belvedere
    July 29th, 2012 @ 6:26 pm

    I think it’s more of a matter of her not caring what the Truth is. To the Leftist, there is no Truth, everything is relative.

  28. Quartermaster
    July 29th, 2012 @ 8:52 pm

    Money does, indeed, talk. It says “goodbye.”

  29. McGehee
    July 29th, 2012 @ 9:13 pm

     Mine usually adds, “…loser!”

  30. jsn2
    July 30th, 2012 @ 7:33 am

     Yes. Some want us to start the stampede now. Better to wait until closer to election day so they don’t have time to regroup the herd.

  31. jsn2
    July 30th, 2012 @ 7:38 am

    EPA policies expected to force the closing of several coal fired power generating plants which will have the effect of drastically raising the price of electricity in OHIO and several mid atlantic states. BO’s policies are a form of political suicide, how stupid are democrat voters? Only time will tell.

  32. jsn2
    July 30th, 2012 @ 7:55 am

     ” I won’t vote for him, but I won’t be upset if he wins reelection.”

    Maybe you should be. Eventually he will show his dem colors and do something really stupid and destructive. Vetoing voter ID isn’t enough for you? That leaves the door to voter fraud wide open.

  33. Lina Inverse
    July 30th, 2012 @ 9:03 am

    You’re assuming the Republican that might replace his won’t “do something really stupid and destructive”,  I don’t know about your state’s Republicans, but ours are sufficiently entrenched—too many safe seats in the non-traditionally urban areas—that they’re enerally fundamentally corrupt and sometimes known to be stupid.  Sarah Steelman, for example, is in the pocket of the plaintiff’s bar.  She’d be a big improvement over McCaskill, but in the long term I probably wouldn’t be happy sending her to D.C. for 6 years, she’s likely part of the problem, not the solution.  She’d be joining Roy Blunt, who’s definitely in that category.

  34. frank
    July 30th, 2012 @ 9:31 am

    His odds in Ohio?  Shockingly good.  The economy here is improving (cough, Kasich), but the governor is an upopular sourpuss, so he gets no credit for it.  Instead, that credit is going to…

  35. richard40
    July 30th, 2012 @ 10:37 am

    I had some Missouri relatives who used to like McCaskil, until she voted for Obamacare.  Missouri passed a referendum against Obamacare that won by 70%.  McCaskill is losing bad for one reason, Obama.  If she had opposed Obama, like Joe Manchin did, she would probably be a hero, despite being a dem.  As it is, despite trying to come off as a big fiscal conservative recently, she is perceived as Obama and Reid’s lapdog.  The real idiocy is I saw one poll that had Missouri listed as a tossup swing state.  Despite being a swing state in the past, Missouri is now completely safe for Romney, because they cant stand Obama.

  36. richard40
    July 30th, 2012 @ 10:49 am

    I agree.  Voting for Obamacare is what killed her.  she had been fairly popular before that.  Missouri voted for a referendum that opposed Obamacare by 70%.  After her votes for the stimulus and Obamacare, she was accurately perceived as Obama and Reids lapdog, despite constantly telling us how much of a fiscal conservative independent she is.  Obama has destroyed the dem party in missouri.

  37. richard40
    July 30th, 2012 @ 10:53 am

    My missouri relatives used to like her until she voted for the stimulus and obamacare, when 70% of the state opposed it, and the Tea Party was camping ouside her door.  After that she was accurately perceived as Obama and Reids lapdog.

  38. Lina Inverse
    July 30th, 2012 @ 11:08 am

    Well, it overstates the case that we “can’t stand Obama”, more like, by a slim margin we weren’t fooled in 2008 and now there’s no doubt and in the Red state parts the loathing is palpable.  But he’ll get plenty of votes in the KC and St. Louis areas, overall we’re a Purple rather than Red (or Blue) state.

    As I’ve noted elsewhere, right now we have a better than OK Democratic governor.  Of course, he wouldn’t stand a chance on the national level, but he’s not someone we have to remove from office at any cost (any that’s legal and legitimate, of course).

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