Wild-Ass Scenarios? Chill.

Posted on | November 5, 2012 | 24 Comments

WILMINGTON, Ohio
Prudence Paine had asked me to submit an Electoral College prediction map and, while Smitty played the game, I chose to abstain. It’s just not what I do. I once won an office pool by correctly guessing the length of a Bill Clinton State of the Union speech, but I suck at election predictions.

Uh, 401 Electoral College votes? C’mon. There are plausible scenarios in which Romney could clear the 300-ECV threshold, and that’s about as high as I’d be willing to go. Just imagine that you had $100 riding on the outcome, and the outrageous optimism immediately chills. Give me Nate Silver’s 7-to-1 odds against Romney, and I’d gladly bet $100, but other than that, I’ll predict nothing.

As I’ve said before, it’s better to think in terms of contingencies: “If X, then Y.” I just saw some data on early votes in Virginia that would seem to indicate Romney winning that state with 52% or more, an outcome (i.e., R+4) that no recent poll has predicted. OK, so if Romney overperforms the polling in Virginia, then he is likely to overperform in other states.

That contingency would then suggest that the systemic oversampling of Democrats that we’ve seen in so many polls has badly misrepresented the electorate, and you could probably figure on adding two or three points to Romney’s RCP average in any state. But readers didn’t send me to Ohio so I could pontificate about poll numbers. Time to leave this McDonald’s and get back on the road to the Romney rally in Columbus that starts in two hours.

Hit the freaking tip jar!

Category: Election 2012, Polls

Comments

24 Responses to “Wild-Ass Scenarios? Chill.”

keyboard jockey
November 5th, 2012 @ 4:08 pm

Yeah I am in the 270-300 range.
Jackie Wellfonder
November 5th, 2012 @ 4:16 pm

I entered, WTH 😉 I was optimistic, but not batshitcrazy with a 401EV prediction. I said 327 – 211, in favor of Romney of course. Although I think I underestimated O.
Laree Lee
November 5th, 2012 @ 4:27 pm

Laree Lee liked this on Facebook.
Kevin Trainor Jr.
November 5th, 2012 @ 4:27 pm

Kevin Trainor Jr. liked this on Facebook.
Thomas L. Knapp
November 5th, 2012 @ 5:33 pm

That sounds a little low to me. I’m thinking either 303 or 332, and MAYBE even 347.

But we are probably talking about different candidates.
McGehee
November 5th, 2012 @ 5:49 pm

I do have my thoughts on the EV total for Romney, but all I’ll say here is, I expect there’ll be a generous serving of gravy.
K-Bob
November 5th, 2012 @ 5:55 pm

Channeling Slow Joe:

I tell ya, Pal, this landslide will be a Big F’n Deal.

Channeling my inner Moron:

Time to go long on pudding.
keyboard jockey
November 5th, 2012 @ 6:05 pm

Romney’s going to win. 270-300.

I really don’t understand why the polling is making a big deal out of R % vs D % polling, they are neck and neck. It’s Independent voters who decide elections, and the momentum is in Romney’s favor.
JeffS
November 5th, 2012 @ 6:17 pm

Good point. I need to buy some pudding cups to go with the popcorn and beer.
Fritz Katz
November 5th, 2012 @ 6:52 pm

Intrade — where people do put their money where their mouth is — has Obama 68% leading Romney 32%. I think the crowd is damn-wrong and I’ve personally put several hundred on Romney hoping to triple my money in one day.

Give me Nate Silver’s 7-to-1 odds against Romney, and I’d gladly bet $100 …

Howabout a 6-to-1 odds? Intrade currently gives only an 17% chance of a Republican President-Senate-House by tomorrow. This means for every $1.70 invested, it could be worth $10.00 tomorrow night.
richard mcenroe
November 5th, 2012 @ 6:58 pm

I see Romney taking six continents and leaving Obama stranded with one army in Australia.

What?
Evi L. Bloggerlady
November 5th, 2012 @ 7:01 pm

When ever that happened someone flipped the board. That should be a tweet rm. Can I use it?
McGehee
November 5th, 2012 @ 8:20 pm

If Romney wins, you’re buying.
Rose
November 5th, 2012 @ 8:47 pm

Obama won’t get any of McCain’s voters, and he’s lost the white guilt vote, he’s lost the white male vote, he’s lost the businessmen’s votes, he’s lost a lot of the youth vote, some of the women’s vote, some of the black vote, some of the Hispanic vote. and almost all of the independent’s votes – and he didn’t win by all that much the first time.

I don’t see any way, aside from outright cheating and fraud, votes hidden in car trunks all over the country, for him to prevail. And he knows it.
K-Bob
November 5th, 2012 @ 9:21 pm

Obama has made a side deal for Venezuela and North Korea, so if he loses, he wins those.

Cost him a kilo of china white.
K-Bob
November 5th, 2012 @ 9:24 pm

If Obama wins, we’ll should all have at least 357.
richard mcenroe
November 5th, 2012 @ 10:31 pm

I get the feeling there’s a lot of stuff on Twitter with the VIN #’s filed off. *g* feel free.
Adjoran
November 6th, 2012 @ 12:45 am

+1 ROFL
ReaganiteRepublican
November 6th, 2012 @ 5:05 am

Of course you are right re. poll bias, so just add to that Romney momentum in Deep Blue states like WI and MN, even PA… undecideds always break to the incumbent, and I can’t recall seeing Obama over 50% much of anywhere.

Romney 300+ Electoral votes, this country needs a CLEAR GOP mandate to make a clean break with grave errors of the last few years, sure hope it’s not close enough to get into another recount circus.

I like how Mitt put it yesterday when asked what HE thought of OBAMA’s re-election chances- “It’s possible- but not likely”, That’s how I’d put it, and Dear Leader is likely in for a real pasting imo
Election Day Special Sticky Post: If All You See… » Pirate's Cove
November 6th, 2012 @ 9:17 am

[…] The Other McCain has a prediction […]
Laughing My Ass Off
November 11th, 2012 @ 11:33 pm

Mmm gravy! And guess what? You clowns are it.

Your delusions and echo-chamber thinking, on full display here, could not taste better.
Laughing My Ass Off
November 11th, 2012 @ 11:37 pm

And how’d that bet work out for you? You convinced Intrade about your alternate universe yet?
Laughing My Ass Off
November 11th, 2012 @ 11:39 pm

The Mittster sure knows how to call it, doesn’t he?
McGehee
November 12th, 2012 @ 6:55 pm

Look up “Pyrrhic victory.”