2020: White Votes Matter
Posted on | September 16, 2019 | Comments Off on 2020: White Votes Matter
Ace of Spades calls attention to an analysis of white working-class voters and what happens if this demographic shifts farther toward Trump in 2020, which seems quite likely if, say, Elizabeth Warren gets the nomination. Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report runs the numbers:
Here’s why the “let’s win without working-class whites” mentality doesn’t hold water for Dems. That demog comprises 45% of all eligible U.S. voters, but:
61% in Wisconsin
61% in New Hampshire
56% in Michigan
56% in Minnesota
56% in Pennsylvania
47% in North CarolinaGood luck.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) September 16, 2019
Dems’ backslide w/ these voters is the main reason IA (66%) and OH (60%) have already exited stage right off the EC battleground, and why a Dem nominee who performs even worse w/ them could risk losses in ME (66%), NH (61%) or MN (56%).
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) September 16, 2019
Wasserman is calling attention to something that certain Thought Criminals — chief among them Steve Sailer — have been saying for more than 15 years, namely that Republicans were stupid to keep trying to pander to Hispanic voters when it would be easier to increase the GOP’s share of the white vote. There were millions of blue-collar white people who either didn’t bother to vote or who voted Democrat because of bread-and-butter economic issues. And it was Sailer’s hunch that it was the open-borders/free-trade Chamber of Commerce wing of the Republican Party that was hurting the GOP with this constituency.
Now, as a matter of economics, I hate this trade-war game that Trump is playing with China, because protectionism is just bad economics, but if this is a negotiating strategy, intended to force Beijing to open its markets to U.S.-made goods, well, that’s OK. And the blue-collar voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania, who might not be as devoted to sound economic principles as I am (or who simply care more about their jobs than about principles) seem to like this get-tough-with-China talk, a lot.
So while Trump’s economic nationalism is, so far at least, a winner with the working-class voters he needs for 2020, what are the Democrats doing? Doubling-down on identity politics and über-woke “social justice” issues. Pandering to their base of non-binary genderqueer vegans — the piercings and purple hair caucus — Democrats have gone so far left the ghost of George McGovern is shocked by their extremism. Like, if you support “Drag Queen Story Hour,” banning plastic straws and giving free college tuition to illegal aliens, you’re a Democrat, but otherwise . . . ?
It was Rahm Emanuel, of all people, who pointed out that the 2020 Democrats seem to be letting “liberal Twitter” push them to the furthest edges of radicalism, and as Ace of Spades says, Twitter is not real life: “The Democrats think they can make up for losses in the White Working Class with gains in the White #WokeAF Class.”