The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

Ukraine Freakout: Is This for Real?

Posted on | February 11, 2022 | Comments Off on Ukraine Freakout: Is This for Real?

While on the one hand, I’m not a paranoid conspiracy theorist, on the other hand I am very cynical about politics, which is why I am somewhat hesitant to accept that all this media noise about Ukraine is legit:

President Joe Biden plans to speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday, a person familiar with the matter said, as the US warns Russia could attack Ukraine using bombs and missiles at any moment.
The high-stakes talks come at what US officials describe as a critical juncture in the ongoing crisis. A significant increase of Russian ground forces and military assets have surrounded Ukraine, and Putin could decide at any moment to activate them into a deadly invasion.
He hasn’t decided whether to act, the White House said Friday. But that has not stopped American officials from dramatically increasing their warnings an attack is now a “distinct possibility” and could occur swiftly.
Biden’s phone conversation with Putin — scheduled for 11 a.m. ET Saturday, according to the Kremlin — will be his first since the end of December. Since then, the number of Russian troops near Ukraine has increased and the prospects of an invasion have increased, according to American intelligence assessments. . . .
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Friday accused Western countries and the media is spreading a “large-scale disinformation campaign,” which promotes the thesis about an allegedly impending Russian invasion of Ukraine.

As I say, I don’t want to get too paranoid about a “Wag the Dog” scenario here, and do not wish to minimize the possibility that Putin does indeed plan military aggression toward Ukraine . . . but in February? Hello?

The forecast in Kiev calls for an overnight low of 19ºF with a high Saturday of 35ºF and, while the week ahead is expected to be comparatively balmy — with temperatures reaching as high as 44ºF Wednesday — mid-February is certainly not an idea time for military operations in Ukraine. Why wouldn’t Putin wait until spring?

Nonetheless, the White House and the media are sounding the alarms — invasion is imminent! 48 hours to evacuate Ukraine! — and the question that occurs is, if the threat is not real, why are they faking it?

If I had to guess, what’s happening is that Team Biden is trying to manufacture a “win” for Joe, hyping up the invasion threat so that the old guy can then claim he stopped Putin from invading Ukraine. And maybe also, at the same time, what we’re seeing is how “the ongoing crisis” is allowing Putin to play a sneaky game with the American “intelligence community,” sending out fake invasion signals and then watching how they react. That way, the Russians discover which information channels the NSA/CIA are monitoring, which will enable Russia to manipulate perceptions in any future scenario, including a real Ukraine invasion.

Remember, Putin is ex-KGB so he knows this Spy-vs.-Spy stuff inside and out, while the Biden administration is run by a bunch of progressive “social justice” clowns who couldn’t organize a Cub Scout camping trip. As to how all this works out, my guess would be that Biden will do a Chamberlain-at-Munich stunt, claiming he’s negotiated “peace for our time,” and then a couple months later — mid-April to early May — he’ll be blindsided when Putin sends the tanks rolling into Ukraine.



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