The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

Ukraine: Bad Week in the Donbas

Posted on | May 28, 2022 | 1 Comment

You can click on that map to view it full-size, but the story it tells is of Russian success in its attempt to cut off and encircle Sievierodonetsk, the linchpin of Ukraine’s attempt to maintain a foothold the eastern (or northern) bank of the the Siverskyi Donets river. The Ukrainian supply line for Sievierodonetsk, running west through Lysychansk and Siversk would normally run through Bakhmut, 40 miles to the south, but the Russian advance from Popasna has cut off that route.

From the latest tactical summary:

The hottest points in Donbas remain Lyman and the area between Bakhmut and Popasna. Russian army has superiority in the region and are slowly advancing north-west, threatening to cut-off Ukrainian troops stationed in Sievierodonetsk and its vicinity. . . .
Russian troops attacked Ukrainian positions near Bohorodychne, but they weren’t successful and retreated.
The enemy entered Lyman from the north-west and captured a portion of the town. Heavy battles are ongoing. . . .
[A] road connecting Bakhmut and Lysychansk is now in range [i.e., of Russian artillery] and de-facto blocked. The only remaining “safe” road connecting Bakhmut and Lysychansk is leading through Siversk now.

As I argued in a post nearly two weeks ago (“Ukraine: Donbas Battles Intensify,” May 16), the best move for Ukraine would be to reinforce Lyman for a counteroffensive there, “toward Zarichne and Kreminna, [which] would force the Russians to retreat from the river at Yampil and would also relieve pressure against Sievierodonetsk.” Surely this must have been as obvious to the Ukrainian military leadership as it was to me, and the fact that such a counterattack has not been made tells me that Ukraine lacks the necessary reserves of manpower and materiel to mount such an offensive. With insufficient troops and equipment to break through at Lyman and threaten the flank and rear of the Russian forces attacking Sievierodonetsk, the Ukrainians are compelled to maintain the tactical defensive, which in the long run will be a losing game.

The optimism that followed Russia’s retreat from Kharkiv earlier this month has now been replaced by apprehension for the critical situation farther east in the Donbas. Let’s hope that this gloomy prospect is merely the darkness preceding the proverbial dawn.




 

Category: Military, Russia, Ukraine

Comments

One Response to “Ukraine: Bad Week in the Donbas”

  1. News of the Week (May 29th, 2022) | The Political Hat
    May 29th, 2022 @ 6:52 pm

    […] Ukraine: Bad Week in the Donbas You can click on that map to view it full-size, but the story it tells is of Russian success in its attempt to cut off and encircle Sievierodonetsk, the linchpin of Ukraine’s attempt to maintain a foothold the eastern (or northern) bank of the the Siverskyi Donets river. The Ukrainian supply line for Sievierodonetsk, running west through Lysychansk and Siversk would normally run through Bakhmut, 40 miles to the south, but the Russian advance from Popasna has cut off that route. […]