The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

Red Wave Hits New Hampshire?

Posted on | November 1, 2022 | Comments Off on Red Wave Hits New Hampshire?

This would almost certainly flip the Senate to GOP control:

New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate Gen. Don Bolduc has taken the lead for the first time over Democrat Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) in New Hampshire’s Senate race, a Tuesday Saint Anselm poll revealed.
Forty-eight percent of voters selected Gen. Bolduc, while Hassan only garnered 47 percent, well below the coveted 50 percent threshold for an incumbent. Three percent were unsure.
The poll surveyed 1,541 New Hampshire likely voters from October 28-29 with a 2.5 margin of error.
Campaign spokeswoman Kate Constantini told Breitbart News the result of the polls shows the Bolduc campaign’s grassroots initiatives are producing results.
“This result is not surprising since General Bolduc has spent this entire campaign speaking directly with New Hampshire voters about the important issues facing our country,” Constantini said. “Momentum is hard to get and even harder to stop, and we are taking nothing for granted this last week of the campaign.”
Gen. Bolduc has clawed his way into the one-point lead, a gain of 12 points in just six weeks, when Hassan had an 11 point lead. A Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll four weeks ago showed Hassan with a nine point lead (50-41 percent) over Gen. Bolduc.
That lead was cut to seven points (52-45 percent) in an October 12 AARP poll. Both polls showed Hassan with majority support.
On October 21, a Fabrizio, Lee & Associates poll showed Gen. Bolduc had tied the race (45-45 percent) with seven percent undecided.
During the campaign, Gen. Bolduc has highlighted four issues: inflation, gas prices, crime, and open borders. According to third quarter fundraising totals, Bolduc has been outspent by $9 million dollars.

So it’s not just one poll — there is a trend of polls showing that the race has shifted toward Bolduc since late September, and this picture of increasing GOP momentum is a nationwide phenomenon. Democrats got a summer poll bump from the Supreme Court abortion decision, but that began fading in September and, over the course of October, the signs of an approaching “red wave” began to multiply. Crucially, Democrats started shifting resources away from defending House seats in districts that Biden had won in 2020 by a few points, toward districts where Biden had won by eight, nine, 10 points. In other words, the Democrats’ own internal polling shows a shift from D to R on a scale similar to the way Virginia flipped last year. Real Clear Politics now projects Bolduc winning in New Hampshire, and FiveThirtyEight is now projecting a GOP Senate majority, based mainly on Adam Laxalt’s strong Senate race in Nevada.

We’re planning a special Election Night edition of The Other Podcast, starting next Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET and running until 1 a.m. The outcome in New Hampshire will be one of the earliest indicators of how the night is shaping up, but I anticipate that nearly every key Senate race will be deemed “too close to call” by the media until midnight or later. Because you’ve got to wait on those mysterious 2 a.m. ballot dumps, am I right?

OK, sorry, didn’t mean to stoke your paranoia — and possibly incite political violence — by suggesting that Democrats might steal the election again, but we all know that Democrats will always cheat enough to win any close election, which means that in order for Republicans to win, they must beat “the margin of theft.” If it’s not close, they can’t steal it.

I am not an “election denier.” I am an election realist.




 

Category: Election, New Hampshire, Polls

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