The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

BOOM! We Are So #Winning!

Posted on | October 29, 2024 | No Comments

Of course, I must add the necessary “don’t get cocky” disclaimer, but ladies and gentlemen, this news is YUGE:

Democrat presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris is waving the white flag in North Carolina, surrendering the state to former President Donald Trump as her campaign withdraws nearly $2 million in planned ad buys from television stations statewide one week before the election.
The more than $1.7 million in canceled ad buys by Harris’s campaign in North Carolina suggests that her team believes, given polling data and early vote data, that the Tar Heel State is no longer in play for her.
Trump’s senior campaign adviser Chris LaCivita jumped at the news on Tuesday morning, celebrating Harris’s team giving up on the state one week before the election . . .

It is fact, by the way, that polling shows Virginia now a lot closer than it was in 2020, when Biden won it by 10 points. There are important House races on the ballot in Virginia that Democrats can’t afford to lose, and it may indeed be that they’re making this move to “try and stop the slide” in Virginia. More important, of course, is the apparent surrender in North Carolina, the only “battleground” where Democrats were trying to flip a state that went for Trump four years ago. If indeed, Team Kamala has waved the white flag in North Carolina, that means they’re not strictly playing defense, trying to hold onto states that Biden (allegedly) won.

Weeks ago, it was clear that Trump had a straightforward path to victory — hold North Carolina, flip Georgia and Pennsylvania, and nothing else mattered. Even if Trump were to lose Arizona, Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin, he’s still the winner (exactly 270 Electoral College votes) with the NC/GA/PA trifecta. Georgia has looked pretty solid for Trump all along (thank you, Fani Willis), and a source told me this week that the Trump campaign’s internal polls have them up by three points in Pennsylvania. That’s a little closer than they would like it, but they are “cautiously optimistic” in Pennsylvania. Now, Team Kamala surrenders North Carolina? YUGE! That frees up Republican resources for the late push in Pennsylvania — and Michigan, Wisconsin, etc.

My hunch — and it’s not a completely uneducated guess — is that Trump’s got Arizona nailed down and he looks like a winner in Nevada, too, but that’s likely to be a lot closer. Michigan is at least close enough that Democrats there are still sweating it. If Harris wins Michigan and Wisconsin, and Trump wins Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada, then Pennsylvania is the whole game. Meanwhile . . .

Today, I went and voted early. I don’t live in a “battleground state,” but I do live in a competitive House district, so it matters. What made me decide to vote today was that I watched the video of Steve Bannon’s press conference after he got released from federal prison:

 

If that doesn’t make you vote, I don’t know what will.



 

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Category: Donald Trump, Election, Kamala Harris, North Carolina

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