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VIRGINIA ELECTION RESULTS: Will Voters OK Spanberger’s Gerrymander? UPDATE: Network Declares ‘Yes’ Win

Posted on | April 21, 2026 | Comments Off on VIRGINIA ELECTION RESULTS: Will Voters OK Spanberger’s Gerrymander? UPDATE: Network Declares ‘Yes’ Win

UPDATE 8:49 p.m. ET: NBC News has just declared that “yes” will win the referendum vote in Virginia. Only 80% of the vote has been counted, but the remaining vote in Fairfax County and Richmond will be enough.

UPDATE 8:39 p.m. ET: Lead for “No” is less than 30,000 votes:

YES …………….. 1,197,131 (49.5%)
NO ……………… 1,219,875 (50.5%)
(76% of the vote counted)

This is starting to look discouraging.

UPDATE 8:14 p.m. ET: “No” continues to hold the lead:

YES …………….. 969,934 (48.0%)
NO ……………… 1,051,768 (52.0%)
(64% of the vote counted)

The margin keeps tightening. Fingers crossed.

UPDATE 7:59 p.m. ET: With more than half the vote counted, “no” is now leading by more than 90,000 votes:

YES …………….. 794,155 (47.2%)
NO ……………… 887,372 (52.8%)
(54% of the vote counted)

The lead is now narrowing, percentage-wise. As more urban vote comes in, expect it to become very close.

UPDATE 7:44 p.m. ET: Even wider lead for “NO”:

YES …………….. 568,383 (45.5%)
NO ……………… 681,792 (54.5%)
(41% of the vote counted)

BTW, it’s nearly 2-to-1 “no” in Louisa County.

UPDATE 7:34 p.m. ET: “NO” is gaining ground:

YES …………….. 424,523 (47.3%)
NO ……………… 473,156 (52.7%)
(30% of the vote counted)

Now leading by more than five points — encouraging.

UPDATE 7:24 p.m. ET: Getting results quick tonight:

YES …………….. 183,280 (49.5%)
NO ……………… 187,151 (50.5%)
(12% of the vote counted)

UPDATE 7:14 p.m. ET: The first numbers are in:

YES …………….. 29,862 (48.1%)
NO ……………… 32,275 (51.9%)
(3% of the vote counted)

You can’t tell anything from these first returns. Be patient.

EXPECT FURTHER UPDATES . . .

 

* * * PREVIOUSLY (6:46 p.m. ET) * * *

 

Polls close at 7 p.m. ET tonight and within hours we will know whether Virginia voters have approved a referendum that would redraw the Commonwealth’s congressional districts from their current alignment (6 Democrats, 5 Republicans) to give the Democrats a likely 10-1 advantage. People who have followed the process whereby this measure got to the ballot have assured me that it is unconstitutional on at least three different points, which would mean a court battle if the “yes” vote wins tonight, but it would be far better if the “no” vote wins — a direct repudiation of this nefarious scheme by Gov. Abigail Spanberger and her Democrat accomplices in the legislature. As regular readers know, I traveled to Louisa County last weekend for a “Vote No” rally:

“It’s unfair, it’s unconstitutional and it’s illegal,” Second District Rep. Jen Kiggans said of the referendum, expressing an opinion shared by many Republicans who have noted what might mildly be termed procedural irregularities in the way the redistricting measure made its way onto the ballot. (See David Catron’s February column, “Redistricting Betrayal in Virginia,” for more about that.) In her speech to the courthouse rally here, Kiggans mentioned the uphill battle she fought in 2022 to win her seat in a competitive coastal district that includes Virginia Beach. Kiggans would almost certainly have no chance to be reelected in this fall’s midterms if the redistricting referendum passes, and the same is true of McGuire, despite the fact that he carried the fifth district by a 15-point margin in 2024.
The map Democrats would inflict on Virginia is a Frankenstein monster, and what it would do to Louisa County is a nightmare horror story. Currently, the fifth district is geographically coherent, covering a wide area west of Richmond down to the North Carolina border. Under the proposed new map, Louisa County would be shoved into the Seventh District, the shape of which resembles a lobster, its head and two claws pointing southwest (Louisa County being the elbow of one claw), and its tail reaching all the way up to touch the Potomac River in Arlington County. From its southernmost point in Powhatan County to Arlington, this mutant district would span more than 130 miles and, with its westward lobster claw, also reaches over into the Shenandoah Valley to slice off parts of Rockingham and Augusta counties. It’s about 100 miles from one claw to the other, but in driving that distance along I-64, a motorist would travel roughly half of it through the proposed new sixth district.

The early vote — they have 45 days of that in Virginia — was reportedly heavier in Republican-leaning areas, and there were reports today of continued high turnout for the final voting today, but that’s anecdotal, and we won’t know the result until they actually count the votes. Spanberger won by a 15-point margin last November, and so the “no” vote has an uphill battle. We shall see what the evening brings.

UPDATE 7:05 p.m. ET: Earlier today, everyone on X was blabbing about projections based on reported turnout in different counties, and that’s a fool’s errand. This is a single-issue referendum — nothing else on the ballot — and it is impossible to estimate results based on the kind of metrics that (might) help predict a regular election. Based strictly on my own observation, it seems to me that the “no” campaign is more energized and motivated. Republicans have a greater incentive to vote against the redistricting than Democrats have to vote for the redistricting, and it’s hard for me to imagine most independents thinking, “Yeah, let’s just ignore the state constitution and redraw the map to give Democrats four more congressional seats.” That’s merely my observation, which doesn’t count for much, but some conservatives on X are just too pessimistic about what is likely to be a very close contest.



 

Category: Election, Virginia

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