Category: Football

DRAFT OFFENSIVE LINEMEN.

Three simple words, and you might think NFL coaches and general managers — career professionals, who are paid to know football — would understand the importance of drafting offensive linemen, in terms of building long-term success in the league. Yet what is so apparent to me doesn’t seem to penetrate the minds of many of those highly paid experts, or else things might be far different for the Jacksonville Jaguars and the New England Patriots, two teams whose fates I’ve followed since 2021, when the Patriots drafted Alabama QB Mac Jones, who was traded this year to the Jags. A big part of what went wrong for Mac in New England was that the quality of the Patriots’ offensive line noticeably deteriorated in 2022 and 2023. Part of that can be blamed on Bill Belichick’s inexplicable decision to make Matt Patricia the team’s offensive coordinator for the 2022 season. But the problems on the offensive line weren’t just a matter of coaching; rather, the Patriots weren’t adequately replenishing their line through the draft. By his third season in New England, the pass protection was so horrible that the constant pressure basically wrecked Mac’s confidence. Having ruined their former first-round draft pick, the Patriots then decided to trade Mac Jones to Jacksonvile, and drafted Drake Maye from the University of North Carolina as their future “franchise” quarterback.

Well, guess what? The Patriots are now 3-10, and their offense is one of the worst in the league because their offensive line is still garbage. The Boston sports media has belatedly figured this out. Having spent the past two seasons blaming Mac Jones for everything wrong in New England, now that their darling Drake Maye is at QB — oh, the man-crushes this rookie inspires among Boston media types! — the fact that he’s got no protection up front is suddenly recognized as an issue.

Meanwhile, down in Jacksonville, the Jaguars have a very similar problem. The Jags are 2-10, and their “franchise” QB Trevor Lawrence is on injured reserve, with Mac Jones scheduled to start in his stead. Much of what’s gone wrong in Jacksonville since 2022, when Lawrence took them to the playoffs, is due to the weakness of their offensive line.

A few basic considerations: If the offensive line can’t make the running game work, you’re going to find yourself in a lot of third-and-long situations where you’ve got to pass, meaning that the defense can tee off on their pass-rush and, generally speaking, linemen who aren’t effective as run blockers aren’t going to be adequate when blocking pass protection. What this means strategically is that, if the offensive line isn’t getting the job done — both in the running game and the passing game — you’re going to be three-and-out on offense pretty regularly, your quarterback’s going to get sacked a lot and, because pressure from the defensive pass rush is distracting to a quarterback’s focus, you’re also going to lose the ball more often because of interceptions. This, in turn, means your defense is going to get worn out because of a lopsided time-of-possession. When commentators speak of football games being won “in the trenches,” this is what they’re talking about. Offensive linemen work almost anonymously, but what they do is essential to team success.

You’ve got to have five starters on the offensive line and, given the frequency of injuries, you also need three or four quality backup linemen, so that you really have to think of eight or nine players — roughly 1/6th of the 53-man NFL roster. While the different line positions are somewhat specialized, there is a bit of overlap between them: Your backup center can play guard, if needed, and some guards are big enough that they can play tackle, if needed. With this in mind, a typical NFL roster might include four offensive tackles, three guards, and two centers.

Something else: No team is ever going to let go of a really good left tackle. (Because he protects the quarterback’s “blind side,” the left tackle is the highest paid offensive lineman). If you think you’re going to find a good starting LT through free agency or trade, you’re delusional. Realistically, the only way to address that crucial position is through the draft, and how long is a left tackle going to last in the league, what with injuries and everything? Every five or six years, then, an NFL general manager has to be willing to expend the team’s first-round draft pick on a stud tackle, or else the team will never be credible as a Super Bowl contender.

The same is true, to a lesser extent, for any other high-quality offensive lineman. A healthy Pro Bowl center? No way a team’s going to let that guy’s contract expire so he becomes a free agent, and what could you possibly offer in a trade that would make the Detroit Lions say, “Sure, we’ll give you Frank Ragnow”? Generally speaking, the teams with great offensive lines get their players from the draft, not via trade or free agency. How many linemen are drafted in a typical year?

To study this, I took four recent years (2018-2021) when NFL teams drafted a combined total of 172 offensive linemen (31 centers, 52 guards, 89 tackles), meaning that in an average year, 43 offensive linemen were drafted. There are 32 teams in the league, which means that a typical NFL team drafted 5.4 linemen during that four-year span. There are seven rounds in the NFL draft, and nearly all the best players — the Pro Bowlers — and most of those who will be starters for five or more seasons, are drafted in the first four rounds. It is rare for late-round draft picks to develop into truly great NFL players, the most noteworthy exception being Tom Brady, who was a sixth-round pick out of Michigan.

Of the 172 offensive linemen drafted from 2018 to 2021, fourteen have made the Pro Bowl at least once: Frank Ragnow (C, Arkansas, 1st round, 2018), Quenton Nelson (OG, Notre Dame, 1st round 2018), Brian O’Neill (OT, Pittsburgh, 2nd round 2018), Orlando Brown Jr. (OT, Oklahoma, 3rd round 2018), Wyatt Teller (OG, Virginia Tech, 5th round, 2018), Chris Lindstrom (OG, Boston College, 1st round, 2019), Erik McCoy (C, Texas A&M, 2nd round, 2019), Elgton Jenkins (OG, Mississippi State, 2nd round, 2019), Tyler Biadasz (C, Wisconsin, 4th round, 2020), Tristan Wirfs (OT, Iowa, 1st round, 2020), Jonah Jackson (OG, Ohio State, 3rd round, 2020), Rashawn Slater (OT, Northwestern, 1st round, 2021), Penei Sewell (OT, Oregon, 1st round, 2021), Landon Dickerson (OG, Alabama, 2nd round, 2021), Creed Humphrey (C, Oklahoma, 2nd round, 2021). That’s five first-round picks, five second-round picks, two third-round picks and one fifth-round pick. The good news in this analysis is that your chances of scoring a Pro Bowl lineman are about equal in the first and second rounds, so if a team has some other pressing need — cornerback, wide receiver, etc. — they don’t miss too much of a chance in passing over a first-round offensive tackle. But there is a notable drop-off in the third round and later, which means that a quality offensive line is usually going to include more players drafted in the early rounds.

Of the 172 offensive linemen drafted 2018-21, slightly more than half (81) were taken in the first three rounds, which means that, over this four-year span, the average team drafted 2.5 linemen in the first three rounds. Do the best teams prioritize offensive linemen in the draft? During the past five years, six different teams have played in the Super Bowl — the Kansas Chiefs (four times), the San Francisco 49ers (twice), the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Los Angeles Rams, the Cincinnati Bengals and the Philadelphia Eagles. These teams, as conference champions, are by definition “elite.” Here are their offensive line draft picks for 2018-2021:

• Kansas City Chiefs (4, including 2 third-round or higher) — OG Nick Allegretti (7th round, 2019), OT Lucas Niang (3rd round, 2020), C Creed Humphrey (2nd round, 2021), OG Trey Smith (6th round, 2021).
• Cincinnati Bengals (8, including 3 third-round or higher) — C Billy Price (1st round, 2018), OG Rod Taylor (7th round, 2018), OT Jonah Williams (1st round, 2019), OG Michael Jordan (4th round, 2019), OT Hakeem Adeniji (6th round, 2020), OT Jackson Carman (2nd round, 2021), OT D’Ante Smith (4th round, 2021), C Trey Hill (6th round, 2021).
• Los Angeles Rams (6, including 2 third-round or higher) — OT Joseph Noteboom (3rd round, 2018), C Brian Allen (4th round, 2018), OT Jamil Demby (6th round, 2018), OT Bobby Evans (3rd round, 2019), OT David Edwards (5th round, 2019), OG Tremayne Anchrum (7th round, 2020).
• Philadelphia Eagles (6 including 2 third round or higher) — OT Matt Pryor (6th round, 2018), OT Jordan Mailata (7th round, 2018), OT Andre Dillard (2nd round, 2019), OG Jack Driscoll (4th round, 2020), OT Prince Tega Wanogho (6th round, 2020), C Landon Dickerson (2nd round, 2021).
• San Francisco 49ers (5, including 2 third-round or higher) — OT Mike McGlinchey (1st round, 2018), OT Justin Skule (6th round, 2019), OT Colton McKivitz (5th round, 2020), OG Aaron Banks (2nd round, 2021), OG Jaylon Moore (5th round, 2021).
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3, including 3 third-round or higher) — OT Alex Cappa (3rd round, 2018), OT Tristan Wirfs (1st round, 2020), OT Robert Hainsey (3rd round, 2021).

Between them, these six elite teams drafted a combined 32 offensive linemen (5.3 average), of which 14 were taken in the third round or higher (2.3 average). Both numbers are slightly below the league average, mainly due to the low numbers for the Chiefs and Buccaneers. This may be because those teams entered 2018 with relatively strong offensive lines, as compared to a team like the Cincinnati Bengals, who went on an OL shopping binge during this time frame. However, the latter case may help explain why, in 2021, second-year Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow was able to take the Bengals all the way to the Super Bowl, beating the Chiefs along the way. By beefing up their offensive line, Cincinnait gave Burrow the kind of protection that would help a young quarterback flourish.

Also worth noting is Tampa Bay’s quality-over-quantity approach — the Buccaneers didn’t draft a lot of offensive linemen during this four-year span, but when they did, they favored higher-round picks. They have continued this trend in subsequent drafts, taking OT Luke Goedeke in the 2nd round in 2022, OG Cody Mauch in the second round in 2023 and C Graham Barton in the first round in 2024. As for the Kansas City Chiefs, now trying to win their third consecutive Super Bowl, in the three most recent drafts, they’ve taken a total of five offensive linemen, including third-round OT Wanya Morris in 2023 and second-round OT Kingsley Suamataia in 2024. Gotta protect Mahomes, right?

Building a good offensive line, and then replenishing it regularly to maintain that quality, makes it imperative for teams to use their draft selections judiciously. Some NFL front offices seem to get distracted by the glamour of quarterbacks and wide receivers as first-round picks. Everybody in the local sports media gets excited about picks like that, but an NFL general manager isn’t going to get much media praise for taking an offensive tackle in the first round. In the long run, however, that tackle might make a lot more difference in the W-L column than any wide receiver on the roster. A lot of teams would love to be where the Detroit Lions are right now — 12-1, heavily favored to make it to the Super Bowl after barely missing it last year. Look over that list of Pro Bowl offensive linemen I cited earlier and you’ll find that two of them, Frank Ragnow and Penei Sewell, both play for the Lions. There’s a reason Detroit has gotten where they are. Other teams should pay attention.

 

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You don’t care about football and, at a certain level, neither do I, but the NFL saga of quarterback Mac Jones has fascinated me ever since he was a first-round draft pick for the New England Patriots in 2021. That followed Mac’s undefeated, record-setting National Championship season at Alabama and, in retrospect, can we all agree that season was the pinnacle of Nick Saban’s tenure as head coach in Tuscaloosa? During the 2020 season, Mac completed more than 77% of his passes for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns. What happened to Mac in New England is a long, sad story of a legendary franchise in disarray (see “‘The Patriot Way’ Has Turned Toxic,” December 7, 2023). That’s why I was overjoyed in March when Mac was traded to the Jacksonville Jaguars — the situation in New England was irretrievable, and Jacksonville is Mac’s hometown.

Jones is now a rehabilitation project, frankly, and he could not have asked for a better place to do it. Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson is himself a former quarterback, who spent most of his 12-year NFL career as a backup, so he has a high degree of empathy for a player in Mac’s situation. Furthermore — and this is crucial — there is no doubt who QB1 is in Jacksonville. Trevor Lawrence was the No. 1 draft pick in 2021, the same year the Patriots got Jones at No. 15 overall and, despite Lawrence’s woeful rookie season (during Urban Meyer’s disastrous tenure as Jaguars head coach), he has flourished the past two seasons under Pederson.

Two years ago, Trevor led Jacksonville to the AFC South title, and a first-round playoff victory over the Los Angeles Chargers, before losing in the divisional round to the Kansas City Chiefs. Last year, after a strong start, the Jaguars faded down the stretch and missed the playoffs, as Lawrence struggled with injuries. Now fully healthy, Trevor’s status as starting QB is beyond dispute, which means that Mac Jones doesn’t have to deal with anything like the pressure and scrutiny (and, let’s face it, hate) he endured in New England, where the legendary shadow of Tom Brady loomed so large. Still, the job as backup quarterback wasn’t just going to be handed to Jones on a silver platter. For the past three seasons, C.J. Beathard has been QB2 in Jacksonville, and if Jones wanted that job, he would have to beat out Beathard. Mac cinched it Saturday night:

Mac Jones threw for 210 yards and two touchdowns, taking a step toward formally securing Jacksonville’s backup job, and the Jaguars beat Tampa Bay 20-7 in a preseason game featuring few starters Saturday night.
Jones got the nod in place of Trevor Lawrence and completed 16 of 23 passes, including TDs to Parker Washington and Brevin Easton. He also scrambled six times, including a nifty, duck-under move on linebacker Vi Jones in the second quarter to avoid a sack.
“Just got to keep carrying the momentum,” Jones said. “It’s a one-week season; everyone always says that. The preseason, too. You’ve got to stack good games and move on to the next game.”
Jones’ best throws went for scores. He hit Washington in stride on a third-and-17 play for 25 yards and a 7-0 lead that capped a 17-play drive. Washington finished with three receptions for 38 yards a week after returning a kickoff 73 yards against Kansas City.
Jones returned in the fourth quarter after C.J. Beathard (groin) was ruled out and lofted a perfect pass to Easton for a 31-yard score. Jones finished with a QB rating of 127.1. Beathard was 5 of 7 for 40 yards and was sacked three times.
“I thought overall Mac played a solid football game,” coach Doug Pederson said. “He was obviously into it. You saw his intensity out there. Made some great throws. Just led the team like you expected. … He loves playing. He loves playing the game and he did some great things.”

Perfect Throw from Mac Jones to Brian Thomas Jr. #DUUUVAL 15 yard gain and a first down! pic.twitter.com/fFWu6IfaGb

— ? Troll Pats ? (@TrollPats) August 18, 2024

Mac is trusting the concepts. Hits Trammell wide open pic.twitter.com/f4MHNZU9n3

— Fitz (@LaurieFitzptrck) August 18, 2024

Mac Jones hits Parker Washington in stride for a 25-yard TD!

?: Stream #TBvsJAX on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/HTu1RBL2oe

— NFL (@NFL) August 18, 2024

Mac Jones with his 2nd TD of the game!

?: Stream #TBvsJAX on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/77XMlhNf5k

— NFL (@NFL) August 18, 2024

Although the severity of Beathard’s injury was not disclosed, the fact that Jones came back on in the fourth quarter and quickly produced a touchdown — which, hey, isn’t that what a backup QB needs to do? — can be fairly regarded as putting a lock on the job. Besides the unknown status of Beathard due to his injury, Pederson (and Jacksonville GM Trent Baalke) must also consider the potential demand for Mac’s services elsewhere around the league. For example, when the Minnesota Vikings lost first-round rookie QB J.J. McCarthy to a season-ending injury last week, several commentators suggested the Vikings might trade for Jones. And there might be other teams interested in a young veteran quarterback who, now that he’s escaped the gloom of New England, is once again showing the abilities that made him a first-round draft pick three years ago. By August 27, NFL teams have to cut their roster down to 53 players, and it’s generally agreed that the Jags will only keep two QBs on their active roster. The hope would be that they can cut QB3, then resign him to the practice squad after he clears waivers. But what are the chances that Jacksonville can successfully make that maneuver with Mac Jones? Not good, whereas C.J. Beathard almost certainly would.

At this point — with one preseason game remaining against the Falcons — it looks like Mac Jones will be QB2 for the Jaguars, and that’s exactly where he wants to be. Jacksonville’s offensive line seems rather porous, so Mac can watch from the sidelines while Trevor Lawrence gets blitzed and sacked repeatedly. It’s a nice gig, being a backup quarterback, and my hope is that Jacksonville can amass a winning record and Trevor can stay healthy, at least until November 5. That’s the NFL trade deadline, and I wouldn’t want to see Mac’s rehabilitation get interrupted by having the Jags trade him to some other team in need of an experienced QB. No, let Jones stay in Jacksonville, and let the Jaguars stack up a 6-3 or 7-2 record before the trade deadline, but if something happens to Trevor Lawrence after November 5? Well, Mac needs to be ready. Because that’s the name of the game as a backup QB — be ready.

 

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First, the news from ESPN:

The New England Patriots are finalizing a deal to trade quarterback Mac Jones to the Jacksonville Jaguars, league sources told ESPN’s Adam Schefter on Sunday.
The Patriots will receive a 2024 sixth-round pick as compensation, sources told Schefter. The trade cannot be processed until the new league year begins Wednesday and Jones passes a physical.
New England owns the No. 3 pick in the NFL draft, where many around the league expect them to select one of the top-rated quarterbacks — likely a decision between LSU’s Jayden Daniels and North Carolina’s Drake Maye.
Jones, who grew up in Jacksonville, joins his hometown team as a backup to Trevor Lawrence — the first pick in the 2021 draft. Jones was selected 15th in the 2021 draft.
Mac Jones is the second quarterback selected in the 2021 first round to be traded before the end of his rookie contract. It’s possible that Zach Wilson and Justin Fields will have that distinction this offseason as well.
Jones is expected to compete with C.J. Beathard to be Lawrence’s primary backup. Beathard is in the final year of a two-year, $4.5 million contract he signed before the 2023 season.
Beathard has started just one game in his three seasons in Jacksonville, completing 17 of 24 passes for 178 yards to lead the Jaguars to a 26-0 victory over the Carolina Panthers in Week 17 last season. That was the only win for the Jaguars in their final six games, as they finished 9-8 and failed to make the playoffs.
Lawrence had started every game of his NFL career until he missed Week 17 because of a right, throwing shoulder injury he suffered the week before in a loss at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Lawrence battled multiple injuries last season: a left knee sprain, an ankle sprain, a concussion and the shoulder injury. He wasn’t a full participant in any practice over the last three weeks of the season.
Jones’ three-year tenure with the Patriots began with promise, as he was selected to the Pro Bowl as an alternate in his rookie season. Jones started all 17 regular-season games as the Patriots went 10-7 and clinched a playoff berth (losing to the Buffalo Bills 47-17 in the wild-card round).
Jones was 352-of-521 for 3,801 yards with 22 touchdowns and 13 interceptions as a rookie, but his production dipped over the next two seasons. The departure of offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to become the Las Vegas Raiders’ head coach was the first of several changes — both coaching- and personnel-wise — that affected Jones’ development.

Assuming the deal is done, so is my tenure as a New England Patriots fan. When they drafted my boy from Alabama, they acquired me as a fan, and now I’ve been traded to Jacksonville, and I’m fine with that. All things considered, it’s an ideal situation for Mac. He won’t have to deal with the crazy expectations in New England, where the fans seem to think they’re entitled to be in the Super Bowl every year, and Mac Jones was always faulted for not being Tom Brady 2.0. After the last couple of rotten years in New England, Mac needs to recover his confidence, and the low expectations in Jacksonville — where they’ve never won a Super Bowl, and have only made two playoff appearances in the past 15 years — will be very helpful in that regard. Plus, he’s only expected to be the backup to golden boy Trevor Lawrence, and he should be grateful for that opportunity, given the injuries Lawrence suffered this past season.

The way the NFL is nowadays, especially with their concussion protocols, having a backup QB who’s ready to go is absolutely essential. Last year, Joe Flacco was sitting on his sofa until November, when injuries forced the Cleveland Browns to sign him and, at age 38, led them to the playoffs. One could easily envision Mac Jones getting his chance to be QB1 for the Jaguars if Lawrence gets injured again, but even if that doesn’t happen, Mac might benefit from a year or two as a backup QB before making his way back to being a starter, if not in Jacksonville, then with some other team. He’s at a crucial juncture of his career, and now has a chance to redeem his reputation. So for 2024, I say, let’s go Jags!

 

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In the span of 24 hours this week, we learned that Nick Saban would retire as head football coach at the University of Alabama, and that Bill Belichick would “part ways” with the New England Patriots. Can we take just a moment — before discussing anything else about this news — to extend our condolences to Cleveland Browns fans?

Understand that Cleveland has been a persistent loser in the NFL over the past 35 years. Not only have the Browns never won a Super Bowl, but they haven’t even won a division title since 1989. Three years ago, Cleveland fans were thrilled when the Browns actually won a wild card playoff game against Pittsburgh, and this season, they’re hoping that elderly quarterback Joe Flacco — who began the season sitting on his sofa as a free agent — might be able to break their Super Bowl jinx.

Perhaps it’s an exaggeration to say Browns fans are actually “hoping” for anything, though; football fans in Cleveland have pretty much accepted that they’re doomed. Nothing illustrates Cleveland’s ill fate better than the story of Bill Belichick and Nick Saban. After Belichick had spent 12 years as an assistant to Bill Parcells with the New York Giants, winning two Super Bowls, Cleveland hired Belichick as their head coach in 1991. Belichick hired Saban as his defensive coordinator, and you might think — with two coaches who would later be hailed the greatest in football history — that this would betide championships for the Browns.

Alas, there is no escaping the Cleveland Curse. During the four years of the Belichick-Saban era in Cleveland, the Browns won 36 games and lost 44. Their best season under Belichick, in 1994, Cleveland posted an 11-5 record, just one game behind the AFC Central champion Pittsburgh Steelers, and won a wild card playoff against the Patriots before being eliminated in the next round by the Steelers. After the 1995 season, the corrupt owner Art Modell fired Bill Belichick, and moved his team to Baltimore, where they became the Ravens. Cleveland had to wait four years before they got a new Browns franchise under NFL expansion.

That connection between the Cleveland Browns and the two greatest football coaches of all time gives an ironic mirth to the double-whammy news that struck this week in Tuscaloosa and Boston. The media covering the Patriots had spent weeks saying that the team would get rid of Belichick after this 5-12 season, New England’s worst record in more than 30 years. But the retirement of Saban was unexpected. Alabama fans were happy that the Crimson Tide had beaten Georgia for the SEC title this year, and had returned to the college football championship playoffs, even if ’Bama did come up short against eventual champion Michigan.

Saban has always said that the biggest part of success in college football is recruiting, and his advancing age made that more difficult. At age 72, could he promise recruits that he would be there for their whole four years? And so, wanting to do what was best for Alabama, he made the decision to retire, after winning six national championships in 17 seasons at Tuscaloosa. Belichick’s exist from New England was less graceful, although both the coach and Patriots owner Robert Kraft were polite and diplomatic in their announcement of the decision to “part ways,” the reality is that, since Tom Brady left after the 2019 season, Belichick has plunged the franchise into disaster. The six Super Bowl victories during the 20-year Belichick-Brady “dynasty” era are an increasingly distant memory, and New England fans can’t live off nostalgia — they want a winning team, and they want it now. Well, good luck with that.

The Patriots elevated linebackers coach Jerrod Mayo to replace Belichick, and my forecast is that he’ll last three years before getting replaced by the next head coach, and so on and so on, for probably another 10 or 15 years or so before New England again makes it to the Super Bowl. The Patriots franchise is broken, and fixing it will not be easy, mainly because the fans in New England have become hopelessly spoiled by the 20 years when Tom Brady made it seem like winning Super Bowls was easy.

High expectations are all fine and good, but the Patriots organization had lost its mojo even before Brady left. Their draft choices in recent years have been less than ideal, shall we say? In 2022, New England’s first-round pick (#29 overall) was an offensive guard, Cole Strange, from UT-Chattanooga, and their second-round pick (#50 oerall) was wide receive Tyquan Thornton from Baylor. Strange has had his struggles and injuries, but isn’t necessarily a bad player, but was he worth a first round pick? Good luck finding any pro football analyst who thinks so. As for Thornton, in two seasons, he’s caught 35 passes for 338 yards. And then you compare this to the players that the Patriots could have chosen instead in the same draft, e.g., University of Georgia wide receiver George Pickens, who ended up going to Pittsburgh in the second round (#52 overall) where he’s racked up 115 catches for nearly 2,000 yards. When it comes to evaluating rookie talent, the Patriots aren’t just missing by a few inches, they’re missing by miles. The classic example of this is N’Keal Harry, who was drafted by the Patriots in the first round in 2019, but who accomplished next to nothing before being traded to Chicago in 2022. Harry’s NFL career stats after four years — 64 catches for 714 yards. He wasn’t even on anybody’s roster for the 2023 season.

Again, you can’t evaluate how bad it really is without considering the players that New England could have drafted in 2019 instead of N’Keal Harry, whom they picked at #32 overall. Meanwhile, in the second round, the San Francisco 49ers used their pick (#36 overall) to take wide receiver Deebo Samuel from South Carolina. In five NFL season, Samuel has 283 catches for 4,122 yards. In the 2021 season, Samuel led the league in yards-per-catch and was named to the Pro Bowl.

Considering the importance of wide receivers in today’s NFL, wouldn’t you suppose that a team like the New England Patriots, who won six Super Bowls in 20 years, might have somebody in the building capable of assessing talent at this crucial position? But apparently not, and who was responsible for this failure? A guy named Bill Belichick, that’s who. As both head coach and general manager of the Patriots, Belichick had final say-so on all personnel decisions, and some of those decisions have been so bad that none of the analysts covering the team can explain how they happened. Getting rid of Belichick might be a first step toward fixing this problem, but New England’s front office is still staffed by the people Belichick hired, and the kind of incompetence that led to the Patriots throwing away first-round draft picks on no-talent players is likely to continue as long as those staffers remain. Beginning with a 4-13 team — worst record in the AFC — a rebuilding project is necessary, but unless the Patriots suddenly develop a knack for finding good draft picks, the team isn’t likely to improve anytime soon.

Alabama’s situation is less discouraging. They hired Kalen DeBoer, who took the University of Washington Huskies to the title game, to be the next head coach, and while I don’t think the Crimson Tide is likely to experience in the near future anything like the success Saban had during his tenure, it’s unlikely that Alabama will actually become a bad team. The tradition and prestige of the program are such that talented football players will keep going to Tuscaloosa, and they should be in the Top 10 at least for most preseason polls for years to come. If things go bad, however, DeBoer will get the boot. Alabama simply won’t tolerate a loser.

Thus does the Belichick-Saban era of football come to an end, and once again, we extend our condolences to Cleveland Browns fans.

 

The FBI needs to investigate the crime that happened Monday night in Pasadena, California — a case of identity theft, in which a group of young men claiming to be the University of Alabama football team perpetrated an implausible impersonation of the Crimson Tide. The fraudulent “football team” that took the field at the Rose Bowl looked nothing like the mighty Crimson Tide, which had defeated the defending national champion Georgia Bulldogs 27-24 to win the SEC title.

Let us stipulate that Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe had been inconsistent all season long. His miraculous game-winning TD pass against Auburn — on fourth-and-goal from the 31 — was perhaps divine intervention, or else the Crimson Tide never would have gotten to the national championship playoffs. But the only reason the Auburn game was close enough to require such a last-minute miracle was because Alabama’s offense had been so listless and mistake-prone, committing 72 yards of penalties and converting only six of 16 third downs.

Nevertheless, having survived that scare, the Crimson Tide were more impressive against Georgia in the SEC title game, mounting two lengthy first-half drives to take a 17-7 lead at halftime, and then holding off the Bulldogs in the second half. While I wasn’t confident about Milroe and the offense going into Monday night’s game, I felt like ’Bama could rely on its defense, which had proved itself sturdy.

My brother Kirby and I went to Buffalo Wild Wings to watch the playoff game against Michigan, and were ecstatic when a muffed punt return by the Wolverines set up a touchdown that gave the Crimson Tide a 7-0 lead.

Alas, the Alabama defense — or I should say, the identity thieves impersonating the Alabama defense — let Michigan march right down the field to tie the game, and I began to fret, which required me to order another Yuengling (for medicinal reasons, a treatment prescribed by my Samoan attorney as the cure for fretting). Michigan had a 13-10 lead at halftime, and I ordered the All-American Cheeseburger (which isn’t prescribed treatment for anything, but Bert the Samoan attorney assures me it’s still a tax-deductible business expense). During the third quarter, Alabama kept Michigan pinned down deep in their own end of the field, and then mounted a 55-yard drive that ended in a touchdown that gave the Crimson Tide a 14-13 lead early in the fourth quarter. Alabama later added a field to go up 20-13 with 4:41 left to play and I thought to myself, “Winner, winner, chicken dinner.” Surely now the Alabama defense would choke the life out of the Wolverines, and we’d be onto the national championship game. But as I say, the “Alabama defense” were obviously a crew of impostors, who had somehow sneaked onto the team bus in an elaborate conspiracy. For all we know, the real Alabama defense is still being held hostage somewhere in Pasadena. Why isn’t the FBI investigating this crime? Or is the FBI part of the cover-up? Probably the CIA’s in on it, too, not to mention the Bavarian Illuminati.

The criminal conspiracy resulted in Michigan scoring a touchdown that tied the game at 20, requiring overtime (and also requiring me to order another Yuengling, on advice from my Samoan attorney) during which the San Andreas Fault suddenly erupted in a cataclysmic earthquake and the entire state of California collapsed into the Pacific Ocean.

Wait a minute. Let me check my notes . . .

No, the cataclysmic earthquake was what I wished would have happened, instead of what actually did happen, which is a permanent stain on the hitherto honorable reputation of the state of Alabama.

So, 2023 was a bad year — R.I.P., John Hoge — and 2024 has gotten off to an inauspicious start, which I now intend to forget ever happened. (“Game? What game? Why are you asking me these questions?”)

It’s been three whole years since the last time Alabama won a national championship. I blame Joe Biden. And also the Bavarian Illuminati.

My brother picked up the tab at Buffalo Wild Wings, which somehow makes me feel even worse. The only thing that can cheer me up is if you’ll remember The Five Most Important Words in the English Language:

HIT THE FREAKING TIP JAR!

 

Tonight, the New England Patriots play in prime time against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and bid fair to set an unwelcome NFL record:

The betting over/under total on the “Thursday Night Football” game between the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers is testing a 30-year low, and weather isn’t even a factor.
The total on the Patriots-Steelers game dipped to 29.5 earlier this week at ESPN BET before settling at a consensus 30 at sportsbooks as of Thursday morning. That would be the lowest over/under since a 2006 divisional playoff game between the Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears (30).
There hasn’t been a total under 30 since Dec. 26, 1993, when frigid temperatures contributed to three games having sub-30 totals. That Sunday featured the lowest total on a game in ESPN Stats & Information’s database: 28 on Colts at Patriots in New England, where temperatures were in the low 20s with 23 mph winds. The Patriots won that game 38-0.
Temperatures on Thursday in Pittsburgh are expected to be in the 40s with light winds.
The Steelers will start backup Mitch Trubisky at quarterback against the Patriots’ stingy defense because of Kenny Pickett being out with a high ankle sprain, while New England has scored seven points or fewer in three straight games. Bailey Zappe took over as the starting quarterback for Sunday’s 6-0 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers.
The Patriots-Steelers total was attracting more betting interest than usual at sportsbooks, the bulk of it on the under.

The Patriots could make the record books (not in a good way):

The New England Patriots made history in their loss to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 13, but for all the wrong reasons. They are now the first team in the NFL’s Super Bowl era to go winless through a three-game stretch in which they surrendered no more than 10 points in each contest, according to Boston Sports Info.
After losing 10-6 to the Indianapolis Colts and 10-7 to the New York Giants, the Patriots were shut out by the Chargers 6-0 on Sunday. No squad in the 58 years since the first Super Bowl has managed to accomplish a feat like that.
In fact, you have to go all the way back to the 1938 Chicago Cardinals — the team that later relocated to St. Louis and is now playing in Arizona — to find a similar streak of offensive ineptitude. Those Cardinals lost four games in a row in a similar manner, dropping those matchups 10-0, 7-0, 6-0, and finally 7-3.

The other day, Wombat asked why I haven’t written about football since September, and the simple answer is: Depression.

Any fan of a team as bad as this would be depressed by New England’s bleak and hopeless season, but I have special reasons to be glum, as I explained back in September:

Football is a team sport, but I became a New England Patriots fan in 2021 because of one player. When the Patriots drafted Alabama quarterback Mac Jones, they also acquired me as a fan: Roll Tide.
Jones had led the Crimson Tide to an undefeated season and the National Championship after spending three years on the bench behind Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa, stepping in after Tua suffered a season-ending injury late in 2019. . . . Mac led the Patriots to the playoffs as a rookie, finished second in Rookie of the Year voting, and seemed destined for future greatness.

To explain what went wrong — well, there is an army of sports writers in Boston trying to explain it, and their explanations don’t satisfy me. Don’t even mention the name “Bill Belichick” to my brother Kirby, who has developed an implacable hatred of the Patriots coach. Kirby’s basic analysis of what’s gone wrong in New England is simple: Belichick has become a dictator and, like other totalitarian leaders, has surrounded himself with “yes men.” Furthermore, Kirby finds fault with Belichick’s approach to roster-building, an approach that Kirby summed up in a memorable phrase: “Gucci defense, Dollar General offense.”

None of these genius sports writers in Boston know as much about football as my brother, or they’d have figured this out themselves. Before examining in detail the evidence in support of Kirby’s analysis, however, let’s first address the elephant in the room:

The New England Patriots are noted for the following characteristics under Belichick’s tenure, dubbed as the “Patriot Way”:

• Their self-critical, perfectionist, and militaristic approach;
• Their emphasis on team, equality among players and lack of individual ego;
• Their strong work ethic, intelligence and high level of focus and preparation for each individual game;
• Their versatile players, able to play multiple positions; and
• Their multiple schemes intended to take advantage of their opponent’s weaknesses.

Since 2000, the philosophy in making personnel decisions and in game planning has focused on the “team” concept, stressing preparation, strong work ethic, versatility, and lack of individual ego.

Is there anything wrong with that? Not really. I’m all in favor of a “militaristic approach” to football, and nothing else in this description of “The Patriot Way” really bothers me. The problem is that Belichick’s philosophy is insufficient explanation of New England’s “dynasty” with Tom Brady at quarterback. In the era of the NFL salary cap, Brady’s willingness to be underpaid — his salary was always less than his value to the Patriots — was crucial to their ability to remain competitive. This was how “emphasis on team, equality among players and lack of individual ego” manifested itself so powerfully during New England’s glory years, when they played in 10 Super Bowls and won six of them.

Unfortunately, this success led Belichick to think he’d hit upon some kind of magic formula that could produce victory without regard to personnel and — this is the real killer — subsequent years have demonstrated that Bill Belichick is a very poor judge of personnel, particularly on offense.

Andrew Callahan makes a key point about this:

Do you know the last college receiver the Patriots selected who became a multi-year NFL starter?
That would be Deion Branch in 2002. That’s right.
It’s been more than 20 years since Belichick drafted and developed a true wideout. Tom Brady papered over that problem for two decades, as he did many dynasty-era deficiencies.

This is where Kirby’s phrase “Gucci defense, Dollar General offense” is most glaring: Every sports writer in Boston has bemoaned the lack of what they call a “true Number One” wide receiver and, as Callahan points out, it’s Belichick’s inability to find such a talent in the draft that has put the Patriots into such a deficit on offense. Because top wide receivers — speed demons whose downfield threat keeps the defense honest — are so valuable in the NFL, if you can’t get one in the draft, you’re going to have to bleed yourself dry to get one via trade or free agency. And when it comes to evaluating collegiate receivers, Bill Belichick sucks.

Here’s where the “dictator surrounded by cronies” factor boomerangs around to whack New England in the back of the skull. Not only is Belichick the head coach of the Patriots, he’s also the general manager. Everybody on the staff — assistant coaches, front office personnel, etc. — answers to Belichick, so that the scouts and other people assigned to evaluate draft prospects is handpicked by Belichick, who has the final say-so on all such matters. Belichick’s coaching specialty is defense; he was defensive coordinator under Bill Parcells with the New York Giants when they won two Super Bowls. When it comes to picking linebackers or cornerbacks, Belichick does just fine. Wide receivers? Not so much.

Infamously, in 2019, the Patriots spent their first-round pick on N’Keal Harry out of Arizona State. Harry was a complete bust, who’s never had more than 33 catches in a season; Harry was traded in 2022 for a seventh-round pick, and is nowadays a member of the practice squad for the Minnesota Vikings. Wasting a first-round pick on a total failure is made all the more painful by the fact that, four picks after the Patriots chose Harry, the San Francisco 49ers picked Deebo Samuel from South Carolina, who in 2021 caught 77 passes for 1,405 yards, and led the NFL in average yards per catch. If N’Keal Harry was an isolated incident — hey, anybody can make a mistake — that would be one thing, but as Callahan says, it’s been more than 20 years since the Patriots drafted a top wideout. “But what about Julian Edelman?” you say. Edelman was a one-off — a seventh-rounder from Kent State who, while lacking outstanding speed, was an excellent route-runner with great hands.

Something I forgot to mention: Belichick has two of his sons working as assistant coaches on defense. Steve Belichick is the play-caller and Brian Belichick coaches the safeties. Neither of them has ever worked for any other team but the Patriots, which raises the question whether any other team would hire them, or if their employment in New England is nothing but nepotism. Returning to the dictator motif, is it fair to say the Belichick boys are the Qusay and Uday Hussein of Foxborough?

You could ask my brother Kirby his opinion, but brace yourself for an expletive-filled rant whenever you say the word “Belichick” around him.

The bottom line is, the Patriots offense sucks, and the architect of this disastrous 2-10 season is evading responsibility because the Boston sports media have bought into a narrative that makes Mac Jones the scapegoat. Every one of them are now engaged in a delusional fantasy in which the Patriots draft a quarterback — Caleb Williams of USC, Drake Maye of North Carolina, Jayden Daniels of LSU — and instantly become competitive. The problem with that pipe dream? Mac Jones was (and, I would argue, still is) better than any of the QBs the Boston media are fantasizing about as New England’s coming savior.

Let’s just take Caleb Williams for example. In two seasons at USC, Williams has completed 599 of 888 passes (67.5%) for 7,870 yards (8.9 yards per passing attempt) with 72 TDs and 10 interceptions, winning 18 games and losing 8. In his final two seasons at Alabama — including three starts his junior year, after Tua Tagovailoa was injured — Mac Jones completed 408 of 543 passes (75.1%) for 6,003 yards (11.1 yards per passing attempt) with 55 TDs and 7 interceptions, winning 15 games and losing 1. His senior year, of course, Alabama was undefeated and won the National Championship, as Jones set NCAA records for completion percentage and passer rating. None of the would-be saviors about whom the Boston pundits are drooling have anything close to the pedigree that Jones brought to New England when he was drafted in 2021. Belichick and “The Patriot Way” have ruined Jones’s career, and if anyone in Boston thinks it’s going to get better with a new first-round draft pick at quarterback, they need to seek psychiatric help. Probably the Patriots will start Bailey Zappe the rest of the season, and if the Mac Jones era in New England is over, that’s the best thing that could happen for Mac Jones.

Fuck New England, fuck the Boston sports media, and fuck “The Patriot Way.” Kirby ain’t the only one who can cuss a blue streak, y’know.

 

Tyson Bagent — remember that name, because some people who know a lot about football agree that he’ll be the starting quarterback for the Chicago Bears before this season is over.

Remember what I told you last month about Trey Lance?

In the 2021 NFL draft, five quarterbacks were first-round picks:

1. Trevor Lawrence (Clemson) — Jacksonville Jaguars
2. Zack Wilson (Brigham Young) — New York Jets
3. Trey Lawrence (North Dakota State) — S.F. 49ers
11. Justin Fields (Ohio State) — Chicago Bears
15. Mac Jones (Alabama) — New England Patriots

Being a lifelong Alabama fan, of course I was outraged by the implied disrespect to my boy Mac, who had just led the Crimson Tide to an undefeated season and a national championship. Mac had the most passing yards of any college quarterback that season, and set an NCAA record for highest percentage of passes completed (77.4).

Barely three weeks later, the 49ers traded Lance to Dallas in exchange for a fourth-round pick in next year’s draft, vindicating my judgment. As for Zack Wilson, New York Jets legend said he’s “seen enough” of him.

That brings us to the subject of Justin Fields. After three games, the Bears are 0-3, and the former Ohio State quarterback doesn’t look like he belongs in the NFL. Fields may actually be worse than Zack Wilson, which is as about as bad as it gets. Fields has completed 51 of 88 passes (58%) for 526 yards and three touchdowns, and has thrown four interceptions. Meanwhile, Mac Jones — despite playing behind a shoddy patchwork offensive line — has completed 81 of 125 passes (65%) for 748 and five TDs, with two interceptions. There is no question which one is the best quarterback, and it ain’t Justin Fields. Meanwhile . . .

Tyson Bagent, from Martinsburg, West Virginia, attended tiny Shepard University, a Division II school with barely 3,000 students. Six-foot-three and 210 pounds, Bagent broke all the records:

Bagent became the starting quarterback for the Shepherd Rams as a freshman and was named first team All-Mountain East Conference (MEC) after completing 253 of 387 pass attempts for 3,029 yards and 29 touchdowns. He was named second team All-Pennsylvania State Athletic Conference (PSAC) East, Shepherd’s new athletic conference, after passing for 4,349 yards and 36 touchdowns [as a sophomore]. . . .
In 2021, Bagent passed for 5,000 yards and 53 touchdowns and was named the PSAC East Offensive Player of the Year and won the Harlon Hill Trophy. Bagent also won the Hardman Award as the best amateur athlete in West Virginia. After the season, Bagent entered the NCAA transfer portal and visited West Virginia and Maryland, but ultimately opted to stay at Shepherd for his final season of eligibility.
On December 3, 2022, Bagent broke the record for touchdown passes across all NCAA divisions with 159, in Shepherd’s 48–13 win over IUP during their quarterfinal game. . . .
Bagent participated in the 2023 NFL Combine. He went undrafted but was signed by the Chicago Bears as an undrafted free agent in 2023. He made the Bears’ 53-man roster at the end of the preseason. He was named third on the Bears depth chart to begin the season behind starter Justin Fields and veteran Nathan Peterman.

The veteran backup QB Peterman is only there as an insurance policy, but Chicago fans fell in love with Tyson Bagent who, in three preseason games, completed 20 of 29 passes (69%) for 156 yards. And given how badly Fields has played, I’m not the only expert on football who thinks Bagent is going to be taking over as Chicago’s QB pretty soon:

“If Fields continues to think and not react, they got a guy named Bagent, their rookie that I predict you will be seeing him before the season’s over. Even though I wish Justin Fields the very best, but this kid Bagent — just like [San Francisco’s] Brock Purdy — he’s played a lot of college football at quarterback and he’s ready to be a pro quarterback.”

The source of that prediction? A guy named O.J. Simpson.

Early to the waiver wire. pic.twitter.com/RMxDzPsOcS

— O.J. Simpson (@TheRealOJ32) September 24, 2023

The two things that O.J. Simpson knows best are football, and how to get away with murder. So when he says Tyson Bagent’s going to be starting for the Bears? Well, if the prediction fits, Justin Fields quits.

Serves ’em right for not drafting Mac Jones.