Category: Hawaii

Memo From the National Affairs Desk: Mathematical Impossibilities Happen

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“Rick Santorum charged of out Tuesday’s wins in the South with a fresh claim to being the chosen son of the Republicans’ conservative flank. Mitt Romney limped out with something that could endure longer: an enhanced lead in delegates.
“Under the cruel math of the prolonged GOP primary race, Mr. Santorum’s victories in Alabama and Mississippi were more than negated by late-night Romney wins far to the west in the Pacific Ocean, in caucuses in Hawaii and American Samoa.”
— Neil King Jr., Wall Street Journal

“If Newt Gingrich drops out of the GOP primary after losing in Alabama and Mississippi yesterday, it could enable Rick Santorum to unite conservatives against Mitt Romney.”
— Greg Sargent, Washington Post

“As it turned out, the Lindsay campaign was fatally flawed from the start. It was all tip and no iceberg — the exact opposite of the slow-building McGovern juggernaut — but back in February it was still considered very shrewd and avant-garde to assume that the most important factor in a presidential campaign was a good ‘media candidate.’ If he had Star Quality, the rest would take care of itself.”
— Hunter S. Thompson, Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail ’72

Went to bed last night — actually, about 3 o’clock this morning — happy to know that Rick Santorum had won Alabama and Mississippi and was on his way to a second-place finish in Hawaii.

And I woke up with a feeling of dread: Today is the day that I have to go through my travel records and gather up my expense receipts from 2011, because my wife has made an appointment Thursday for us to get our taxes done. The Beatles wrote a song about this.

Piled atop the tax-time misery, however, was the Fear and Loathing of what I was certain I’d encounter when I logged on this morning: Romneyites gloating about the delegate count.

Damn those Samoans! Damn them all to hell, I say!

Let Charles Johnson denounce me as an anti-Samoan bigot, I don’t care. Those island bastards put a smile on Jennifer Rubin’s smug face:

According to the Associated Press delegate count, Mitt Romney won 42 delegates last night to 38 for Rick Santorum. By winning nine delegates in American Samoa and 45 percent of the vote in Hawaii, Romney wiped out Rick Santorum’s narrow wins in the Deep South. And, just like Saturday, when Santorum won Kansas and lost ground to Romney, today Santorum’s task to get to 1,114 delegates (as he promised last night he would) is that much harder. …
Math, like gravity, can’t be ignored. . . .
There are 1,358 delegates yet to be awarded. Romney has 495. He needs 694 delegates, less than 48 percent of the remaining delegates, to wrap it up.

Evil Blogger Lady pointed out this Rubin-Romney gloatfest, and all the other Romneyites — including Hugh “Guess Who This Helps?” Hewitt — have joined in. Permit me, then, to piss in their cornflakes.

If you subtract nine Samoan delegates from Tuesday’s results, this seemingly inexorable March Toward Mittdom starts sliding back the other way, and we have passed the point in the schedule where Romney can keep padding his lead by scooping up uncontested delegates in farflung territories. Mitt’s got those 36 delegates from Guam, American Samoa, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the Northern Marianas Islands and I’m sure they’ll all have a good time in Tampa, but the territorial RINO good times are over, baby.

Rick Santorum left Louisiana last night and flew to Puerto Rico for two days of campaigning. Puerto Rico votes Sunday, they’ve got 23 delegates and, while I’m not a Michael Barrone-type expert on stuff like this, do you think there might some Catholic voters in Puerto Rico?

Do you see what I’m talking about here? Rubin and Hewitt and all Mitt’s “inevitability”-mongers keep making the same mistake: They’re extrapolating the trend forward, as if this trend were a fixed factor in a polynomial equation and the actual campaign — you know, candidates giving speeches, shaking hands with voters and stuff like that — didn’t make any difference at all. Continue reading Memo From the National Affairs Desk: Mathematical Impossibilities Happen →

GOP PRIMARY RESULTS HQ: SANTORUM WINS ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI: ‘WE DID IT AGAIN’

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UPDATE 1:55 a.m. ET: Mitt Romney wins all nine of American Samoa’s delegates, just like Guam. I say we sell ’em both to China. Package deal. Good riddance!

UPDATE 1:05 a.m. ET: Earthquake in Vanuatu. Just a coincidence, right?

UPDATE 12:15 a.m. ET: As of now, according to the Associated Press, Mitt Romney has 472 delegates, Rick Santorum has 244, Newt Gingrich has 127, and Ron Paul has 47. If correct, that means Mitt has 53% of delegates so far, but remember that he won 50 delegates in one fell swoop in the Florida winner-take-all primary Jan. 31.

Rick Santorum is now flying to Puerto Rico, which votes Saturday, and awards 23 delegates. Next Tuesday, Illinois votes — 69 delegates. Then, on March 24, the Louisiana primary — a Southern state with lots of Catholic voters — and 46 delegates at stake.

Question 1: What will the delegate count be on March 25?

Question 2: Will Mitt Romney still be above 50% of the total?

Question 3: Shouldn’t you donate to Rick Santorum now?

11:50 p.m. ET: Newt Gingrich’s all-the-way-to-Tampa speech — in the wake of two defeats in his own backyard — might not exactly be “whistling past the graveyard.” He can continue campaigning, of course. But unless I’m seriously mistaken about the impact on his fundraising, Gingrich is either going to have to start laying off staff or find some other way to cut expenses. If he can’t win in the Deep South, where will he win? And why keep giving him money, if he keeps losing?

10:55 p.m. ET: As Santorum noted during his speech, his daughter Elizabeth has spent the past two days campaigning in Hawaii, where voting in caucuses tonight doesn’t end until 2 a.m. That creates the possibility that Santorum’s two big wins in Alabama and Mississippi could create a bandwagon shift toward him in Hawaii.

We will have to wait and see. Newt is now about to give his concession speech. His fundraising has got to be circling the drain.

10:45 p.m. ET: Rick Santorum began his speech tonight, “We did it again.” He was speaking from LaFayette, La., and Alabama had just been called a victory for him. Shortly before he ended the speech, it was announced that Mississippi had also been called a Santorum victory.

Two words: FREAKING HUGE!

10:25 p.m. ET: This afternoon, before my nap, when Drudge was posting exit-poll numbers, I wrote:

OK, I’m adding several grains of salt: Exit polls can be screwy.

Now Allahpundit pushes the “chagrin” button:

Looks like the exits got it wrong there, likely vis-a-vis the evangelical numbers.
The worst-case scenario for Mitt tonight was a Santorum sweep. We’re on the verge of it.

Ain’t I done told ya? Ain’t I done told ya?


10:15 p.m. ET: In a telephone interview just now with Greta Van Sustern on Fox News, Rick Santorum said, “We’re on our way to victory.” Asked about his assertion today that Fox News has been biased in favor of Mitt Romney, Santorum said, “Not you and Sean [Hannity] — you’ve been great.” Santorum emphasized that the pro-Romney bias was apparent in straight news coverage. This was just what I said earlier today.

Brett Baier, in announcing Santorum’s victory in Alabama, called it “a major blow to Newt Gingrich.”

10:10 p.m. ET: NBC News just called Alabama for Rick Santorum — FREAKING HUGE, baby!

10:05 p.m. ET: Santorum is very close to winning in Alabama — leading 34%-30% over Newt — but his lead is now just one percentage point in Mississippi. Meanwhile, Newt Gingrich’s campaign just released a strategy memo that begins:

Notwithstanding the conventional wisdom that dominates the news media, Newt Gingrich is well positioned to win the GOP nomination and here’s why. . . .

Hey, guys: If Newt loses Alabama and Mississippi tonight, what happens to your fundraising, huh? What was your cash-on-hand and total debt as of March 1, huh? If the checks start bouncing, we’ll see how “well positioned” Newt is.

9:50 p.m. ET: OK, I’m not going to pile up new numbers every five minutes for the rest of the night. Maybe every half-hour or so. Even though it’s still too close to call, at this point, Santorum’s lead continues to hold up in both Alabama and Mississippi. Caution is necessary, however, because we don’t know where these votes are coming from. The districts that come in later may shift the other direction.

Still, for Santorum even to be in the running, two hours after the polls closed, in the South where Gingrich is supposed to be strongest — folks, this could be freakin’ huge.

9:40 p.m. ET: Now with 8% of Alabama precincts reporting:

Rick Santorum ……… 10,759 (34.2%)
Newt Gingrich ………. 9,279 (29.5%)
Mitt Romney ……….. 8,947 (28.4%)
Ron Paul ……………….. 1,745 (5.5%)

So, as of this hour, Rick Santorum leads both Alabama and Mississippi. Don’t be counting any chickens yet. Still way too early, folks.

UPDATE 9:30 ET: Now with 19% of precincts reporting in Mississippi:

Rick Santorum ……… 14,742 (34.1%)
Newt Gingrich ………. 13,303 (30.8%)
Mitt Romney ……….. 12,494 (28.9%)
Ron Paul ……………….. 2,169 (5.0%)

UPDATE 9:25 ET: Strangely, Mitt Romney has no plans to deliver a speech tonight. Rick Santorum is hosting his own election night speech in LaFayette, La. — Louisiana’s primary is March 24.

Linked by Bob Belvedere at Camp of the Saints — thanks!

UPDATE 9:15 ET: Again, to caution, these are very early results, but with 4% of Alabama precincts reporting:

Rick Santorum ……… 3,763 (34.2%)
Newt Gingrich ………. 3,190 (29%)
Mitt Romney ……….. 3,128 (28.4%)
Ron Paul ………………. 659 (6%)

UPDATE 9:10 p.m. ET: Results are coming in very slowly, but with 6% of precincts reporting in Mississippi:

Mitt Romney …… 4,132 (32.4%)
Rick Santorum …. 4,124 (32.4%)
Newt Gingrich ….. 3,640 (28.6%)
Ron Paul ……………. 718 (5.6%)

With such a small number of precincts reporting, these numbers don’t mean much, but the chatter on TV is . . . Newt third?

* * * PREVIOUSLY (7:30 p.m. ET) * * *

Usually, Tuesday nights find me in some “victory celebration” where the WiFi bandwidth sucks and I end up phoning in reports while Smitty mans the election results desk. Tonight, however, Smitty’s wife has him on “honey-do” duty and I’m at home in my basement office/man-cave, with plenty of bandwidth, two dogs, three kids, a wife, etc.

Your basic facts: Polls close in Mississippi and Alabama at 7 p.m. Central, 8 p.m. Eastern. As previously noted, Drudge has got exit poll numbers indicating Romney could win both of those states which, if true, would drive a stake through the heart of Gingrich’s campaign. But it’s going to be tight, so I expect to be up late.

Alabama has 50 delegates, Mississippi has 40. Also, Hawaii has its caucuses today, with 20 delegates at stake, but that won’t be over until 2 a.m. ET, and so folks back east probably won’t know the Hawaii result until breakfast Wednesday morning.

Oh, yeah: American Samoa? They’re having their caucus at Toa Bar & Grill in Pago Pago, where they will choose six delegates to go along with their three “super-delegates.” It sounds like a joke, doesn’t it? Drunk Samoans for Romney!

Quick headline roundup from Memeorandum:

At any rate, check back later. We’ll be piling up the numbers, arguing back at the TV talking-head coverage and quoting the speeches.

RECENTLY:

The Expert Agrees: Polls Are Crap! BONUS: @ESantorum2012 in Hawaii

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Nate Silver of the New York Times shows a surprising humility in explaining the limitations of polling, particularly with the situation we’re facing in Alabama and Mississippi: We don’t have what you might call “data depth.” Unlike the early states (e.g., Iowa or South Carolina), we don’t have a long string of polls, several every week by different agencies, to develop a clear trendline. We also had enough polls in Michigan and Ohio and various other Super Tuesday states so that the trendline was pretty clear there, too. In Mississippi and Alabama, however — as I’ve previously pointed out — there’s not  enough data to say anything beyond “too close to call.”

Also, something else I’ve pointed out before, polls are a lagging indicator. It usually takes several days after a shift of opinion for it to start showing up in polls, which is why the Santorum surge in Iowa caught everybody — well, nearly everybody — by surprise. If Santorum’s win in Kansas gave him a late boost, we won’t know it until they count the votes tonight. Meanwhile, remember that Elizabeth Santorum is in Hawaii campaigning for her father. A news report from Honolulu:

When it comes to Presidential politics, Santorum’s daughter, Elizabeth, thinks Father knows best. “I hear from a lot of people, you know, this is Obama’s home state. What are you doing here?” says the 20 year old daughter. “Hawaii’s important to us, and every state along the way brings something to our country.”

Here’s the video:

It will be the wee hours in the morning before we know how the 17 delegates at stake in the Hawaii caucuses will be apportioned. The important thing is, when the TV talking heads try to spin any unexpected results as a “surprise” or an “upset,” ask yourself this question: Why was the result so unexpected? Why are these supposed experts on TV always trying to tell us that the actual vote numbers are some kind of shocking surprise, just because they don’t match the numbers in a poll taken last week? Welcome to the Information Age, where you can read the same polls that they’re reading and make up your own mind, without experts telling you what to think.

Rick Santorum’s Daughter Elizabeth Will Campaign for Her Father in Hawaii

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This news was announced Saturday night:

The former Pennsylvania senator broke the news about his daughter while standing on stage at a campaign rally in Missouri with his wife, Karen, and second-oldest child, John.
“John just said to me there is an advantage of being the oldest,” Santorum joked.

I’ve contacted my editors at The American Spectator about sending me to Hawaii to cover this important developing news in the Republican presidential campaign, but it was hard to understand their answer due to the loud laughter. Elizabeth’s Hawaii schedule was announced in a press release from the Santorum campaign:

ELIZABETH SANTORUM TO CAMPAIGN
FOR HER FATHER RICK SANTORUM IN HAWAII
Verona, PA – Elizabeth Santorum, daughter of Senator Rick Santorum candidate for President, will be arriving in Hawaii today for the GOP Caucus set for Tuesday, March 13.

Sunday, March 11:
3pm HAST: Elizabeth Santorum will meet and greet with College Republicans in Honolulu.
Location: Starbucks
2330 Kuhio Avenue
Honolulu, HI

Monday, March 12:
9:15am HAST: Elizabeth Santorum will participate in a Rick Santorum for President sign wave in Honolulu, HI.
Location: Corner of King and Punch Bowl
Honolulu, HI

12:30pm HAST: Elizabeth Santorum will be the special guest at a brown bag lunch at the Republican Party headquarters in Honolulu, HI.
Location: Republican Party Headquarters
725 Kapiolani Boulevard #C-105
Honolulu, HI

2:00pm HAST: Elizabeth Santorum will visit the Hawaii State Capitol Building in Honolulu, HI.
Location: Hawaii State Capitol
415 South Beretania Street
Honolulu, HI

4:00pm HAST: Elizabeth Santorum will participate in a Rick Santorum for President sign wave in Honolulu, HI.
Location: Corner of King and Punch Bowl Street
Honolulu, HI

6:30pm HAST: Elizabeth Santorum will be the featured guest at the Republican Party Open House/Potluck Dinner in Honolulu, HI.
Location: Republican Party Headquarters
725 Kapiolani Boulevard #C-105
Honolulu, HI

Tuesday, March 13:
9:00am HAST: Elizabeth Santorum will participate in a Rick Santorum for President sign wave in Honolulu, HI.
Location: Corner of Nimitz and Alakawa, HI
Honolulu, HI

Celebrity News Update: Djou Wins Hawaii; Lindsay Lohan Hits the Bottle; PLUS: Beyonce! Obama! Felipe!

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The biggest Hawaiian superstar since Don Ho:

Republican Charles Djou emerged victorious tonight in the special election to fill Hawaii’s vacancy in Congress, giving Hawaii its first GOP member of Congress in 20 years.
Djou won the special mail-in election with 39.7 percent of the vote in the final printout, released at 9 p.m.
The final printout represented 171,417 ballots returned by voters in the district, which stretches from Waikiki and downtown to Mililani.
Democrat Colleen Hanabusa was second at 31 percent, with Democrat Ed Case third at 27.8 percent.
“This is a momentous day,” Djou told a jubilant crowd at state party headquarters. “We have sent a message to the United States Congress. We have sent a message to the ex-governors. We have sent a message to the national Democrats! We have sent a message to the machine.
“We have told them that we will not stand idly by as our great nation is overburdened by too much taxes, too much debt and too much wasteful spending.”

Meanwhile, on a flight back from the Cannes Festival:

Lindsay Lohan tossed back some vino on a plane Saturday – just a couple of days from her DUI hearing in Los Angeles.
After partying until the early hours of Saturday morning in Cannes, France, the troubled star boarded a British Airways flight to London Saturday, where she was spotted knocking back red wine.
Lohan arrived in Los Angeles Saturday night around 7, according to reports.
She has been ordered to attend a court hearing Monday related to her 2007 drug and alcohol busts.

Coincidence? I don’t think so!

In other celebrity news:

Celebrity news via WeSmirch. Political news via Memeorandum. Sometimes you’ve got to ask, “Which is which?”

Divided Democrats Help Hawaii

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Republican Charles Dijou now leads by 8 points:

With two Democrats on the ballot in Hawaii’s May 22 mail-in election, a Republican could win with a plurality . . .

Video from Steve Foley of the Minority Report:

Meanwhile, in case you missed it earlier, my Green Room special report on the PA12 special election is now front page at Hot Air.

UPDATE: Dave Weigel notes the role of conservative bloggers in lighting up the Hawaii special:

[W]e’ve seen another very effective grass-roots conservative campaign, another successful push by right-leaning Web gurus to make this race exciting to the party’s national base.
First, activists raised the emotional stakes by calling the district “Obama’s home district.” (He was born in Honolulu.) Just like Scott Brown was able to excite conservatives with the prospect of “taking Ted Kennedy’s seat,” Djou has dangled the possibility of an embarrassment for the president — something that makes the otherwise modest goal of shrinking the Democrats’ majority by one seat sound more enticing. Do a search on Twitter for “obamadistrict” and check out how many conservatives embrace the frame. (A lot of the credit here goes to Republican consultant Patrick Ruffini, who’s also organized blogger conference calls for Djou.)

Could a “murthadistrict” hashtag could help #PA12 get that kind of action?

UPDATE II: Citing a new DCCC internal poll that has PA12 a dead heat, Hot Air’s Ed Morrissey says:

Two wins in May, in traditionally Democratic districts, would send a big message about momentum in the midterms. The GOP would probably be thrilled to get just one of these two seats.

A win in either district would be significant because the NRCC has a losing streak in House special elections that goes back at least to 2007