The Other McCain

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Your Daily Egyptian Update

Posted on | January 31, 2011 | 23 Comments

The White House is trying to stay neutral:

White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said Monday that it is “not for me or our government to determine” whether Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak should leave office amid massive protests against his rule.
Gibbs said the United States is “not picking between those on the street and those in the government.”

So I guess that if Egypt has elections and the winner is the “Throw the Jew Down the Well So My Country Can Be Free” Party, that’s OK with the Obama administration? More and more observers are warning of the potential danger of the Muslim Brotherhood gaining power in a post-Mubarak Egypt:

One might wonder how an organization can be thought to have renounced violence when it has inspired more jihadists than any other, and when its Palestinian branch, the Islamic Resistance Movement, is probably more familiar to you by the name Hamas — a terrorist organization committed by charter to the violent destruction of Israel. Indeed, in recent years, the Brotherhood (a.k.a., the Ikhwan) has enthusiastically praised jihad and even applauded — albeit in more muted tones — Osama bin Laden.

That’s Andrew McCarthy at National Review and, lest you be tempted to dismiss this as mere predictable neocon fear-mongering, here’s a warning straight from the horse’s mouth:

Mohamed Ghanem, one of the leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, calls Egypt to stop pumping gas to Israel and prepare the Egyptian army for a war with it’s eastern neighbor.
Speaking with Iranian television station Al-Alam, Mohamed Ghanem blamed Israel for supporting Hosni Mubarak’s regime. Ghanem also said that the Egyptian police and army won’t be able to stop the Muslim Brotherhood movement.

So much for that whole “renouncing violence” claim, eh? To dismiss the jihadist danger is to join the Alfred E. Neuman School of Foreign Policy. The Brotherhood looks positioned to benefit from an Egyptian revolution in much the same way the Bolsheviks benefitted from the Russian revolution, as Drew M. says at AOSHQ: “When it comes to revolutions, it isn’t always those who start them or even gain temporary control who wind up on top when the music stops.” Perhaps you see why the Israelis are defending Mubarak:

Israel called on the United States and a number of European countries over the weekend to curb their criticism of President Hosni Mubarak to preserve stability in the region.
Jerusalem seeks to convince its allies that it is in the West’s interest to maintain the stability of the Egyptian regime. . . .
Senior Israeli officials, however, said that on Saturday night the Foreign Ministry issued a directive to around a dozen key embassies in the United States, Canada, China, Russia and several European countries. The ambassadors were told to stress to their host countries the importance of Egypt’s stability.

Unfortunately for the Israelis, “A military spokesman, Ismail Etman, has appeared on state TV saying the military ‘has not and will not use force’ against protesters,” a statement that Ed Morrissey interprets as “a death knell for the Mubarak regime.”

For Hugo Chavez, the situation in Egypt offers another excuse to — wait, can you guess? — yeah, denounce America! Prompting the ever-droll Dan Collins to observe: “It’s interesting, though, to hear Chavez come down on the side of the status quo in the Middle East, since he’s got such strong ties with the Iranian mullahocracy, who are backing El-Baradei — whose prominence comprises as strong a commentary on the UN’s orientations as one could wish.”

UPDATE: Reaganite Republican notes that a major U.S. Jewish leader has called Mohamed ElBaradei “a stooge of Iran.” ITN News has video showing the continued mass protests in Cairo and Alexandria:

Left Coast Rebel has video of the Cairo demonstration which, if it were a Tea Party rally, would be described as “hundreds of protesters.” Notice that when the streets in Cairo fill up with protesters against Mubarak, liberals scream that there must be elections now — immediately! — or else it’s a human-rights disaster. But when the streets of America filled up with protesters against ObamaCare, liberals said, “Ignore those kooks!”

UPDATE II: Reuters reports:

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak offered talks on sweeping reforms with opponents on Monday, indicating that massive pressure from street protesters, Western allies and his own army are ending his 30 years of one-man rule.
After a week of unprecedented rallies against the poverty, corruption and oppression under the 82-year-old military-backed leader, newly appointed Vice President Omar Suleiman appeared on state television to say Mubarak had asked him to begin dialogue with all political forces on constitutional and other reforms.

Looks like the “ignore those kooks” strategy isn’t working any better for Mubarak than it did for Democrats. Maybe Suleiman can save the regime by spreading rumors that the protesters are funded by the Koch brothers. Then liberals would insist that the U.S. back Mubarak at all costs.

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Category: Barack Obama, Egypt, Israel

Comments

  • http://dad29.blogspot.com/ Dad29

    Yes, but…..do you seriously think that the Egyptian Army is going to pay attention to that wack-job?

    Not any more than they’re paying attention to Mubarek at this point in time.

  • http://dad29.blogspot.com/ Dad29

    Yes, but…..do you seriously think that the Egyptian Army is going to pay attention to that wack-job?

    Not any more than they’re paying attention to Mubarek at this point in time.

  • http://thepagantemple.blogspot.com/ ThePaganTemple

    I think I can predict what is very likely to happen in the event of an MB takeover of Egypt, and not all of it is bad.

    For example, Israel might well retake the Sinai. That would definitely be a plus.

    The ones who hold the key to what is going to happen in the future is the Egyptian military. They know they depend on us for their military and defense expenses. No one else is going to take up the slack to the degree that we have, or can. That might be all the inducement they need to keep things from spiraling too far out of control.

    They know who butters their bread, and they don’t want to lose that.

  • Adobe_Walls

    It is at this moment that not supporting the “Green Movement” in Iran last year bites us in the a**. The Iranian theocracy will use it’s assets which are already in place in most if not all the countries experiencing upheaval in North Africa and the Middle East.
    If O’Sputnik had spoken out against the blatantly fraudulent election in 09, instead of pretending that the will of the people had spoken. If he had supported the demonstrators who opposed a radical Islamic state and devoted as much covert assistance as possible and while still maintaining the thinnest of veils covering our involvement, we would have looked like the strong horse that is so respected in that part of the world. Even if the Greens had minimal successes and the conflict still raged the regime would be too busy trying to survive to be as influential as they are capable of now.
    Suppose however the Green revolution had succeeded in overthrowing the Ayatollahs. Suppose the example of tyranny overthrown was the demise of an Islamic theocracy rather than an Autocracy opposed to radical Islamists.
    I swear if these nitwits running our country fell in a barrel of tits they’d come out sucking their thumbs.

  • Adobe_Walls

    The O’Sputnik administration insists they stop building apartments in parts of Jerusalem they controlled pre 67 and you think the Israelis are going to retake the Sinai?

  • http://thepagantemple.blogspot.com/ ThePaganTemple

    It depends on what happens. They aren’t going to sit on their asses and let their citizens be slaughtered just because Obama won’t like it. By that time, Obama might not be in much of a position to have much to say about it anyway. He could also be gone by the time that happens.

  • Adobe_Walls

    The Israelis can’t conquer enough territory to insure their security. Retaking the Sinai merely puts them closer to their new enemy. They’d do better when it comes to war to advance into the Sinai and hope that they are still much better at mobile warfare than everyone else in the region. They have almost no diplomatic or military options if Egypt and or Jordan are taken by the Islamists. If the Suez is closed and the price to reopen is Israel almost all of Europe will cave. All Israel has when push comes to shove are nukes. If I were them I’d start talking about how heroic those guys at Masada were.

  • Bob Belvedere

    Quoted from and Linked to at:
    Egypt Aflame

  • Joe

    I do not want to defend President Obama and Hillary Clinton. I do not like how they do things.

    But the negotiations here have to take place quietly with the U.S. not taking any overt position when things are so fluid. So what is going on in terms of Obama realpolitik? Beats the shit out of me. We can get a hint of it from Joe “Allah Love’s Em” Biden’s initial response about Mumbarak.

    I would hope the Administration is working with the Egyptian Army to figure out a Plan B. Given the Military’s opposition to the Muslim Brotherhood, they have a good reason to oppose them rising to power in any vaacum.

    El Baradie is a useful idiot and stooge of the Muslim Brotherhood. If the Obama Administration is going with that plan then Egypt is a good as lost.

  • Anonymous

    The only problem with relying on the Egyptian Army is that the draftees and junior officers are underpaid and unhappy. Not a good bet to count on them to have Suleiman’s back, no matter how much dirt he has on the generals.

  • Joe

    True, but the the average gundis in the Egyptian Army are cannon fodder if things heat up with the Israelis again.

    Egypt does have its elite forces and generals, who have backed Mumbarak and would not exactly be better off if the Muslim Brotherhood takes over (they are also the ones who cracked down on the MB leadership over the past 30 years). So I could see a coup happening if things get too out of control.

    Since the MB makes up around 20% of the population and are organized, the only force that could counter-act it is the Army. The students who are protesting are mostly socialists and communists who the MB are willing to use until they are no longer useful (which will be about 5 minutes after the MB takes power).

  • Joe

    And here is the Debka* take on things:

    The Brotherhood is not a radical bogeyman on a par with Iran’s ayatollahs as depicted by Netanyahu. Egypt’s society is diverse enough to withstand a despotic theocracy as the first six days of the popular protests demonstrated.

    If anyone can keep the Muslim Brotherhood in its place, albeit with a role in government alongside other opposition factions, it is the army. According to our sources, a military takeover of government is in the making, planned for an interim stage until a new political order can legitimately take charge.

    * Debka can be off base on many things, but they tend to get things close to home right.

  • Pingback: » Fishersville Mike: What’s next for Mubarak? Revolution Egypt

  • Adobe_Walls

    “True, but the the average gundis in the Egyptian Army are cannon fodder if things heat up with the Israelis again.”

    I wouldn’t be so sure as to the degree of superior quality the Israelis still have over the Egyptian Army. The Egyptians up to the peace accord were equipped and trained by the Russians. They had made substantial progress between the 67 and the 1973 war. Enough progress to make the Israelis abandon the reckless tactic of attacking with tanks unsupported by infantry, a tactic that was very successful in 67. After returning to proper combined arms tactics (I find it ironic that it was the Israelis who perfected true Blitzkrieg war) the Israelis crossed the Suez Canal, stranding many Egyptian units on wrong side, and started to form a classic encirclement which would have achieved the substantive destruction of the Egyptian Army. This made the Russians and their client look bad and could have led to total loss of Russian prestige in the region. So the Russians threatened to become directly involved in the conflict. Nixon had ordered the resupply of arms and equipment to the Israelis which he threatened to cease, that whole nuclear Armageddon thing. But I digress (I could go a couple pages). After the Carter peace accords we started training and equipping the Egyptians and have done so for over thirty years. They have A1A1 tanks which they make in Egypt and some 300 F-16s. We and they engage in joint maneuvers. The only thing the Egyptian army lacks for sure is battlefield experience.
    I suspect the Israelis are not as eager to go to war against Egypt as you may suppose. It’s supposed to be the 73 war and it’s successes, that make the army so popular with the Egyptian masses. The reality is they got the sh*t kicked out of them. I imagine there are still a few junior officers who are still around.

  • Adobe_Walls

    If that wack-job is Suleiman, he knows where all the bodies are buried and who put them there.

  • Anonymous

    Sure hope you’re right, Joe.

  • Pingback: “The Whitehouse is trying to stay neutral.” « Si Vis Pacem

  • http://twitter.com/YetAnotherITGuy YetAnotherITGuy

    IMO, Obama distancing himself from Mubarak and taking a cavalier, lackadaisical, “wait and see” approach, indicates a complete lack of understanding of the dynamics of middle east political and power structures and is in effect, helping set the stage for something very, very bad to happen in the next 2-3 years. The Israelis understand this and also recognize that BHO is a complete fool.

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  • Deborah Leigh

    “O’Sputnik”! I like it! Not only is the O’Sputnik admin railing against the building of apartments, they jumped out of the box with their favorite mantra “peace” while the protestors were rioting, torching building, and gun fire could be heard across Cairo. They were faster to address this than the murders in Tucson. Buffoons.

  • Adobe_Walls

    O’Sputnik is short for President Sputnik. Use it often and in the presence of as many Manic Progressives as possible. We can take over the dialogue one phrase at a time.

  • Anonymous

    Things have sure gone to hell since the Elders of Zion retired, haven’t they?

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