Money Problems for Rick Perry? Also: Thoughts on the Logic of Strategy
Posted on | October 21, 2011 | 44 Comments
Call this the “former front-runner” problem:
Texas Gov. Rick Perry kicked off his presidential campaign with an aggressive fundraising schedule that quickly made him a front-runner for the Republican nomination. But reports his campaign filed with the Federal Election Commission show that his ability to attract big money fell off steeply in September — perhaps not coincidentally — at the same time a series of rocky debate performances threatened his early front-runner status.
As Perry arrives on Friday in Washington for a private meeting with K Street insiders, the question is whether he can convince the smart money that his campaign is worth an investment. After three torrid weeks in August when he raised more than twice as much as his nearest fundraising rival, Perry has now fallen back into a much more competitive fundraising race with Mitt Romney. That is not good news for a candidate who, because of his late entry into the race, has a lot of catching up to do. Romney has raised $32 million since the beginning of this campaign cycle.
If you think back to when the Perry bandwagon got rolling (less than 10 weeks ago, although it seems like ancient history now), the perception of inevitability was central to the argument: The Smilin’ Texan was it – The Man, the Real Deal — and everybody else was supposed to gaze in awe while Perry proceeded to dismantle Romney.
When that didn’t happen, when Perry turned out instead to be a spectacular flop, what argument did the bandwagon-jumpers have left? Well, $17 million buys a lot of opposition research, as well as a team of people paid to disseminate it. Excuse me for suspecting that Politico columnists don’t spend their spare hours reading eight-year-old back issues of Human Events, IYKWIMAITYD.
That the Perry campaign has become a purely negative organization — a machine whose prime directive is the destruction of other non-Romney candidates, leaving Perry as the sole hope for the Anybody But Romney movement — is an inevitable consequence of how the campaign began with the goal of becoming the overnight front-runner. When you begin with that kind of plan, with your campaign organized around the idea of raking in front-runner money, you inevitably encounter a problem when, for example, a poll shows your candidate in sixth place in Iowa.
By contrast, despite all the experts predicting that Herman Cain’s campaign was hopelessly doomed, please pay attention to a tiny little scoop I dropped into the fifth paragraph of my American Spectator column today:
“… with contributions pouring in at a pace that may exceed $5 million for the month of October …”
Notice that no source was cited for that scoop. So the reader may hypothetically suppose that some hypothetical person in a position to know gave me a hard number that provided the basis for that “may exceed” figure. And in such a hypothetical situation, it would be my instinct to lowball the estimate.
Of course, it’s also hypothetically possible for hypothetical people to hypothetically blow hypothetical sunshine up my hypothetical skirt. Nevertheless, if the Herman Cain campaign is now raising more money from online small-donor contributions than the Rick Perry campaign is collecting from its list of big-money donors . . .
Well, let’s exit the hypothetical mode and instead make some factual assertions: In any competitive situation, it is always better to permit yourself to be underestimated by your rivals and then surprise them with shocking success, than to build up expectations by noisy boasting and then underperform.
There was a very good reason I lowballed that fund-raising estimate, and buried it in the fifth paragraph of my column: Because I don’t want to be accused of overhyping the numbers, thereby creating unrealistic expectations. We have entered a sort of Bermuda Triangle here: We won’t have fourth-quarter fundraising data until Jan. 15, by which time we’ll already be past the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary. So there is no way to know for certain how well anyone’s fundraising is going at this point, and it would be a disservice to pretend that I’ve got any way of knowing what I can’t actually know. And I don’t want to get trapped into a situation where I’m held responsible for the accuracy of an estimate that can’t be verified until mid-January.
But the Perry campaign’s relentlessly negative message now – the turn to the Dark Side, as it were — is a predictable reaction to the failure of their original plan to become the overnight front-runner and Only Legitimate Alternative to Romney.
Those who bought into the original plan, which fell completely apart within six weeks of Perry’s Aug. 13 announcement (“Howdy. Thank you, Erick.”), are now trapped into an all-or-nothing effort to destroy Herman Cain. This response is necessitated by the logic of their strategy, and if my gloomy forebodings back in August about the Sith Lord of Texas were mostly a gut hunch, now the rational basis of that hunch is easier to explain. And I wonder if, inter alia, Drew at AOSHQ realizes how predictable the current anti-Cain messages are.
To quote Michael Corleone: It’s not personal.
The mission of destroying Herman Cain has been assigned to professionals who are just doing their jobs. As much as I’d like to explain here the strategic logic of the Cain campaign, there’s no time.
My flight out of Vegas leaves in less than four hours. I spent some time on the phone today talking to people who aren’t hypothetical, and will try to write one more quick post from the airport. But just remember two things:
- Just because people don’t tell you what their strategy is, doesn’t mean they don’t have a strategy, even if they are not themselves entirely conscious of what their strategy is; and
- The Five Most Important Words in the English Language are: Hit the freaking tip jar!

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