The Other McCain

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Rasmussen Poll: Herman Cain Leads in Iowa, as Rick Perry Slips to Sixth Place

Posted on | October 20, 2011 | 35 Comments

The latest numbers from Iowa are great for Cain, grim for Perry:

Herman Cain ……….. 28%
Mitt Romney ……….. 21%
Ron Paul …………….. 10%
Newt Gingrich ……….. 9%
Michele Bachmann …. 8%
Rick Perry ……………. 7%
Rick Santorum ………. 4%
Jon Huntsman ……….. 2%

Rasmussen says: “The sixth place finish for Perry is a sharp decline from early September when Perry was the frontrunner both nationally and in Iowa.” And the survey was taken yesterday (Oct. 19) after the debate here at the Sands Expo and Convention Center, so it does not appear that Perry helped himself appreciably.

Ed Morrissey notes that “Cain didn’t have a great debate on Tuesday, but didn’t get rattled, either.” Which is to say that, merely by surviving the tough attacks, Cain won.


35 Responses to “Rasmussen Poll: Herman Cain Leads in Iowa, as Rick Perry Slips to Sixth Place”

  1. Anonymous
    October 20th, 2011 @ 7:05 pm

    Haven’t you heard? Cain can’t win. It’s in all the papers. Mitt Dewey will take this thing going away. Cain just isn’t electable.

  2. Joe
    October 20th, 2011 @ 7:45 pm

    You have been spending too much time at Hewitt/Townhall, Hot Air (what a coincidence owned by Townhall now), Ace, and Commentary.

    That said–Cain should pay attention to these critics.  Because as bad as they are, they are nothing compared to what the Dems/Left and their MSM lackies have in store for Herman.  And he needs to recognize a lot of people are looking at Herman for the first time right now–he does not want to get Palinized out of the gate.   

  3. Joe
    October 20th, 2011 @ 7:47 pm

    About time the boys woke up from their hangover and noted this poll.  It only came out this morning (about eight hours or so ago). 

  4. Russ Emerson
    October 20th, 2011 @ 7:50 pm

    What really irked the snot out of me at the last debate was the obviously deliberate misapprehension of the gist of the 9-9-9 plan by most all of the other candidates.

    “It’s a VAT!” “So, you’re increasing the state sales tax?” Horsecrap. For this, as well as for a number of other reasons, Bachmann is politically dead to me.

  5. richard mcenroe
    October 20th, 2011 @ 7:56 pm

    He’s worse than Palin!  He’s Bull Connors!  He’s practically Lester Maddox but he can’t be Maddox and Connors at the same time!  He’s such a bigot he trains Dobermanns to bite himself!!!11!eleventy!!!

  6. Joe
    October 20th, 2011 @ 8:00 pm

    Drew at Ace is all mad that Cain is beating the snot out of Perry.   Now they are mad that the Anti-Mitt is actually helping Mitt and attacking Perry. 

    Perry is floundering because of Perry, not because of Cain.  Cain is rising because he is a pretty decent candidate.  I think some of the criticisms of Hot Air and Ace are exaggerated, but Cain really should pay attention to how he does interviews. 

  7. Steve in TN
    October 20th, 2011 @ 8:01 pm

    I predict Cain will have some serious trouble in Iowa.  Why?  His squishy answer on abortion is going to haunt him.  He’s already damaged his reputation with the Long War faction with his squishy answers on Gitmo and his ineptitude on foreign policy.  His Second Amendment gaffe has lost many in the personal Liberty crowd (including me).

    Cain did NOT win the debate, and he did get rattled.  As the debate showed, 999 won’t work, and folks are starting to see that.

    Unforced errors, folks.  Cain haz them. 

    So does Perry.  But Perry has the clearer path to the nomination.

  8. Shawn Gillogly
    October 20th, 2011 @ 8:03 pm

    Bachmann has been incapable of doing anything this entire campaign but say “I am the most/only candidate…” without ever proving why she can back up one of those claims.

    I’ll say this, she is the most VAPID candidate. Incapable of depth. I say let Perry stay in, just to suck that Establishment Money that would otherwise go to Romney’s already bloated chest. The conservatives have already left Perry behind on the Cain train.

    But Santorum and Bachmann need to go. Gingrich can stay for his presence in the debates. He knows he’s not going to win. But he’s having fun, so let him. But neither Santorum nor Bachmann seem to be ENJOYING getting slaughtered either. So really, just go.

  9. Anonymous
    October 20th, 2011 @ 8:04 pm

    I’m just enjoying the show. The Powers That Be love, absolutely love, to set a narrative and they’ll be damned to move off their spots when the patterns change. I’m still pretty open about the GOP’s representative but concede that Mitt would be my last choice.

    But, yes, the Palinization is coming no matter what… a tsunami of it from the Left and a Grade 1 hurricane from the Right. Will it be as bad as Palin got? No. Not even close because she’s a lesser protected class in our PC hierarchy, but it will be significant and, as you note, worthy of a prepared defense.

  10. richard mcenroe
    October 20th, 2011 @ 8:25 pm

    Six place?  Do I need to call Joy McCann?

  11. Joe
    October 20th, 2011 @ 8:42 pm

    Keep telling your self that Perry has the clearer path to the nomination. 

  12. jwallin
    October 20th, 2011 @ 8:43 pm

    Perry managed to touch 2 third rails in his first few weeks; Social Security and Illegal Immigrants.

    He then proceeded to double down and didn’t back track, amend or extend his remarks until a week or so ago.

    Too f’n late Rick.

    Neither of his positions were/are that extreme, he just puked out a talking point and didn’t add any flesh to it, expecting that those who were with him were in the majority. WRONG!

    That stuff may work at some Texas BBQ appearance but not on the box and not for the rest of the country. Too bad. Try again in  2016.

    Y’all come back now, hear?

  13. Herman Cain And Me - The POH Diaries
    October 20th, 2011 @ 8:56 pm

    […] night. I for one, am not that concerned. Although, I’m afraid, he’ll probably pay a political price for not being more clear on his answer. Was it a state’s rights thing? Was it a slip into […]

  14. Anonymous
    October 20th, 2011 @ 9:03 pm

    The inability to comprehend that state taxes are state taxes and federal taxes are federal taxes is stunning. Wonder what Ed Koch would say about that.

  15. Anonymous
    October 20th, 2011 @ 9:09 pm

    I don’t watch CNN so I didn’t watch the debate. Did Perry even once say his best line that he will make the federal government as inconsequential as possible in our lives? It ain’t as catchy as 9-9-9 but no one on our side could criticize it.

  16. Anonymous
    October 20th, 2011 @ 9:41 pm

    “Perry is floundering because of Perry, not because of Cain.”


    But the flip side of that is if Perry stops floundering, Cain’s carriage probably turns back into a pumpkin. Being the outraged, outrageous outsider is only the trump card under a very narrow set of circumstances.

  17. Steve in TN
    October 20th, 2011 @ 9:44 pm

    Hey, I don’t *like* that he does, but he does.  Facts is facts.  Perry has the money and he is actually campaigning.  Plus, he’s more clearly conservative in several areas (and that fact should be troubling for Cain supporters).

  18. Shawn Gillogly
    October 20th, 2011 @ 10:09 pm

    I don’t see the ‘facts’ at all. Money isn’t buying love this election (see, Romney, Mitt). Perry is just sucking Establishment money from the true Establishment candidate right now. And I don’t see evidence Perry is ‘more conservative’ than Cain on anything. He may be ‘as’ conservative as Cain on some things. But so far, for all the talks of Cain’s gaffes, Perry has not been able to ‘campaign’ without inserting his foot in his mouth.

  19. Anonymous
    October 20th, 2011 @ 10:55 pm

    I think that might have been sarcasm…

  20. ThePaganTemple
    October 20th, 2011 @ 10:55 pm

    I can’t believe this crap I’m reading. If you want a conservative candidate who won’t back down from anybody and won’t play nice, then there’s only one candidate-Bachmann. Compare her to any of the other candidates on any issue, one issue at a time, one candidate at a time, and see how she compares. This is including issues where I don’t necessarily agree with her, but most of you should, such as the border fence and abortion.

    Perry has one major problem that he’ll never shake. He can’t say shit whether he does or does not have a mouthful of it. Did no one except me notice that he almost always forgets a word he’s trying to say, pauses, tries to remember it, and then uses the quickest word he can think of to get the point across. I don’t know how old he is, but that might be a sign of early onset of Alzheimers. More than likely though he’s just a crappy debater, gets rattled too easy, and is unlikely to improve. Obama would kill this guy, and let’s face it, Obama is not that damn great either, he was just treated with deference by McCain, and by everybody else.

    Bachmann could and I believe would eviscerate that little punk.

  21. Joe
    October 20th, 2011 @ 11:02 pm

    I agree Cain is on stage, it is opening night,  and the dress rehersal is over.  He can’t afford a flop now, because the show closes.  If he is a hit, it is an extended run. 

  22. Joe
    October 20th, 2011 @ 11:04 pm

    Facts?  Sure we have facts.  What facts?  Oh yeah, we don’t need no stinkin facts.  

  23. Anonymous
    October 21st, 2011 @ 1:44 am

    I’m totally sympathetic to your rant.  I don’t think Perry is quite as bad as you say, but he’s still got no debate chops.

    My problem with Bachmann is that she isn’t really gaining ground.

    The good news is she’s definitely in the hunt, and has a chance.

    But Cain is on the move, and he’s at least acceptable to me.

    I like Cain, Bachmann, and even Santorum.  If pressed, I could stomach Perry over Romney, but that’s it.  Newt is great in debates, but he won’t get the nomination.  So at this point in time, I have to climb back on the Cain train and hope his tax plan gets tweaked or tossed.

  24. Anonymous
    October 21st, 2011 @ 1:50 am

    If he’s so “clearly” more conservative I sure don’t see it.  Look, Bachmann and Santorum are the only down-the-line conservatives still in the race.  Problem is , neither is gaining traction.  Cain and Perry are the next best choice, and both have slight problems regarding Conservative philosophy.

    The good news for me is that Cain seems to be more Libertarian in his thinking, whereas Perry seems to be more statist.  That gives Cain the edge in philosophy.  Add to that Perry’s floundering in these stupid “debates,” and I’d say Cain has the anti-Romney wing sewn up.

    As long as he doesn’t screw up.

  25. Adjoran
    October 21st, 2011 @ 1:55 am

    I agree – Bachmann is a strong conservative voice and a valuable Representative who gives a great speech.  She has never demonstrated anything to indicate she would be capable of being President.

    The debates should be whittled down to Romney, Cain, Perry, and perhaps Gingrich in recognition of his rise and the fact he is the most cohesive Republican voice on the stage, always reminding us the real question isn’t who had an illegal gardener working for a contractor, a word painted over on a rock at leased rural property, or muffed a foreign policy question with a snippy remark.  It should be about how each candidate proposes to attack Obama’s record and withstand the inevitable personal attacks.

  26. Adjoran
    October 21st, 2011 @ 2:23 am

    It’s hard to poll Iowa because their caucuses are so different even from most other state caucuses, and night and day compared to primaries.

    At each caucus location, usually an unheated or ill-heated church basement, school cafeteria, or county “community center,” only candidates who get at least 15% of the vote win any delegates to the state convention.  And it’s not like a primary where you can vote at your convenience all day and leave immediately, this involves a commitment to come out at night after supper on a January night in Iowa over icy roads and spend 2-4 hours “caucusing” until there are no more orphan votes (for candidates at less than 15%) to throw in with other candidates.

    Even if you don’t win any delegates at a caucus, your people can choose who among the other candidates to caucus with, and strategic voting can take place to throw support to someone other than your main rival.

    But all these things require organization.  Getting out the vote to a primary is a piece of cake compared to this. 

    Romney, Cain, and Gingrich have spent little time in Iowa.  Presumably Romney does have the framework of the organization he had four years ago working, but the Bachmann, Santorum, and now Perry campaigns are working the state hard.  Evangelicals hold the key in Iowa; if they go for one candidate, an upset can happen easily. 

  27. ThePaganTemple
    October 21st, 2011 @ 7:51 am

    Thank you, that’s exactly what I was trying to explain in an earlier post, only I didn’t do it nowhere near as good as you did here. But this idea that Cain is “leading in the polls” therefore it doesn’t matter whether he spends a lot of time there, or whether he has any kind of organizational ground game, is on the face of it naive at best.

  28. ThePaganTemple
    October 21st, 2011 @ 8:42 am

    It should be about how each candidate proposes to attack Obama’s record and withstand the inevitable personal attacks.

    And the best person to do that is Bachmann. She not only “gives a great speech” she takes shit from nobody, and doesn’t mind dishing it out. She’s the first person I ever saw belittle Chris Matthers TO HIS FACE AND ON HIS OWN PROGRAM over the “tingle up the leg remark”. She almost literally made Matthews cry. After her segment was up, Matthews was still talking about it and trying to explain it his own way and was clearly agitated about it.

    Matthews is a hard-nosed political operative and has years of experience under his belt as a television commentator. Can you imagine what she’d do to that little punk Obama? If she really tried and didn’t let anything or anybody hold her back, by the time she was through Obama would make Rick Perry look like fucking Cicero.

    As far as what she could do as President, she’s got enough depth of knowledge and experience I’m sure she could do just fine at a minimum. One thing she wouldn’t do is engage in any apology tours. A “Kiss America’s Ass If You Don’t Like Us Tour” maybe.

  29. Anonymous
    October 21st, 2011 @ 9:21 am

    Even Cain’s much touted study calls the corporate tax a VAT.  Why is calling this thing a VAT that is obviously a VAT controversial?

    9-9-9 supporters should at least argue for it on the merits, not straw men.

  30. ThePaganTemple
    October 21st, 2011 @ 10:01 am

    Hopefully she’ll fool a lot of people in Iowa. She knows the area, was born and raised there, and knows how the ground game is played for the caucuses. The only thing I can think of that might hurt her as far as her positions go is the ethanol subsidies issue, and I’m just assuming there she’s against them. But she is there and she’s working it. Cain’s approach to the caucuses make me think he’s either arrogant, or his health isn’t up to the task of what it takes to do good in Iowa. If that’s the case it should give cause for concern.

  31. Anonymous
    October 21st, 2011 @ 2:49 pm

    I honestly am concerned about his health. But I think he can make it through the election and a few years in office, at least.

    His VP pick would be of paramount importance, that’s for sure. I’m getting way ahead of reality by thinking about Cain’s VP, but Bachmann would be a good choice.

    I think Bachmann is a bit stiff in the debates, but every time I hear her articulate a position, she nails it.

  32. ThePaganTemple
    October 21st, 2011 @ 4:20 pm

    Yeah she’d make a good VP choice. She would be a real pit bull. I can just see her in a debate with Biden. “Joe, I really resent your wishing that myself or other conservative women could be raped almost as much as I resent your using rape as an excuse to steal more hard-earned American tax dollars.”

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