The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

Cain Leads New Ohio Poll; Close to Romney in Nevada; Perry Fading Away

Posted on | October 26, 2011 | 34 Comments

The big headline today is the Ohio poll by Quinnipiac:

Former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain has jumped to the front of the line among GOP presidential contenders with 28 percent support among Ohio Republicans. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is second with 23 percent, while Texas Gov. Rick Perry is almost at the bottom of the pile with 4 percent.

The poll was conducted Oct. 17-23 — partly before the Oct. 18 Vegas debate, partly after — and the complete numbers are:

Herman Cain ……………….. 28%
Mitt Romney ……………….. 23%
Ron Paul ……………………… 8%
Newt Gingrich ……………… 7%
Rick Perry …………………… 4%
Michele Bachmann ………. 4%
Jon Huntsman …………….. 2%
Rick Santorum …………….. 1%

Of course, that’s kind of irrelevant, because Ohio won’t have its primary until June, but there’s also a new Nevada poll by Public Policy Polling:

Mitt Romney ……………….. 29%
Herman Cain ……………….. 28%
Newt Gingrich ……………… 15%
Ron Paul ……………………… 7%
Rick Perry …………………… 6%
Michele Bachmann ………. 3%
Jon Huntsman …………….. 2%
Rick Santorum …………….. 2%

There’s just no escaping the point: Perry has become a second-tier candidate. Although his RCP national average is still 11.9%, Perry has been in single digits in two recent national polls — Rasmussen and CBS/NYT — and the latter was taken entirely after the Vegas debate. Which is why you’re starting to see headlines like this:

Can Rick Perry save his campaign?
CBS News

You can do a lot with $15 million, I suppose. Like this Iowa ad:

Maybe he should try puffing a cigarette in his ads.


34 Responses to “Cain Leads New Ohio Poll; Close to Romney in Nevada; Perry Fading Away”

  1. Edward
    October 26th, 2011 @ 2:52 pm

    Rick Perry could save his campaign. 

    He would have to show some humility and apologize for that “heartless” crack.  He would have to explain that he may not completely agree on the means of securing the border but that securing the border is a priority for him.  He would have to explain how he would -cut- government and none of that $100 billion in the first year nonsense either.

    Conservatives understand about having a different opinion.  Herman Cain has a different opinion on quite a few things and yet conservatives support him.  The issue is not having a different opinion.  The issue is being a complete jackass about it – which is Perry’s problem.

    Personally I don’t demand candidates be in lockstep with me.  I however do demand that candidates show that they are serious, that they understand my POV even if they don’t agree with it and that they don’t treat me as if I were useful only during election time.

    In short Perry could save his campaign, but then he wouldn’t be Perry any longer now would he.

  2. Adjoran
    October 26th, 2011 @ 2:54 pm

    I think this is an illustration of why Mario Cuomo never actually ran for President, even though he was the Democratic Party’s Dream Candidate from ’84 – ’92.  He knew the reality of his candidacy could never match the hyped expectations, so he was content with the attention each cycle until he finally announced he would not run.

    Perry was built up in advance to something he was not, something he could never live up to.  This year, conservatives see the opportunity to actually change the way the federal government does business – we, too, can not let a crisis go to waste – and wanted more than ever to have a Reaganesque figure who could articulate the Obama/Pelosi/Reid Regime’s blunders and why their “solutions” only make things worse, but in a way the media couldn’t just label “mean-spirited” and show Grandma over the cliff.

    Instead of just entering the race with humility and working to become the “not Romney” candidate conservatives could embrace, Perry let this huge hype build anticipation before he entered the race.  The hype worked in allowing him to jump into the race in the lead, but he could never live up to it, and faded.

    Perry is good, sturdy cotton denim, but the conservatives were promised cashmere.  One of the toughest things to overcome in life is unrealistic expectation. 

  3. Anonymous
    October 26th, 2011 @ 2:57 pm

    Well, if you’ve been watching Fox News this week, the transparent theme is, “build up Perry, tear down Cain.” From Rove’s whiteboard to O’Reilly’s feature interview with Perry, it’s all aimed in the same direction.

  4. Anonymous
    October 26th, 2011 @ 3:32 pm

    Cain, Perry, as long as it’s not ORomney…

  5. richard mcenroe
    October 26th, 2011 @ 3:32 pm

    Problem is, drill baby drill doesn’t need Rick Perry.  ANY GOP candidate with the exception of global-warming advocate Mitt Romney will do that…

  6. Norman Invasion
    October 26th, 2011 @ 3:40 pm

    I’m hoping this is a repeat of 1979-1980 with Romney playing George H. W. Bush & Cain playing the Gipper.

  7. Robb714
    October 26th, 2011 @ 3:40 pm

    Sometimes, while one might get the perception that Fox News is shilling for Romney the establishment candidate, it is from my best observation the personal opinions of pundits not unlike Britt Hume, et al that tend to drive the misguided out-of-touch with reality conversations.  They can’t help their lack of social media savvy because they are old school dinosaurs that are without a viable clue, hence the small percentage of influence they actually have.  Over all, the multiple Fox personalities have varied and at times restrained personal opinions as to whom they support for president. They can make it up to me and Herman by just giving some face time to , that’s all I am saying, for now.

  8. Adjoran
    October 26th, 2011 @ 4:00 pm

    So now Rove is shilling for Perry?  I thought they hated each other?  That “the Bushies” antipathy for Perry was a blood feud?

  9. Anonymous
    October 26th, 2011 @ 4:27 pm

    I don’t think it’s the build up before he entered the race as much that the build up wasn’t accompanied by better preparation to suddenly be the the front runner.

  10. Anonymous
    October 26th, 2011 @ 4:32 pm

    But I think you’re hinting at a longer-term shift from “dinosaur media” to “new media” that still has a long way to go.

    Somewhat parallel to that theme, Adjoran astutely commented the other day that, for all the experimental new media/politics models, political campaigns still cannot win without serious, well-organized, well-funded old fashioned “ground operations.” Ultimately, Herman Cain cannot win Iowa and NH by running a national internet-oriented PR campaign and doing book signings in Tennessee.

    Similarly, the dinosaurs on Fox News, other networks, and major news dailies (NYT, WashPo, etc.) still play an influential role in the process.  

  11. Zilla of the Resistance
    October 26th, 2011 @ 4:51 pm

    Me too!

  12. Zilla of the Resistance
    October 26th, 2011 @ 4:57 pm

    So I see Rick Santorum is DEAD LAST even behind governor asterisk. That’s really a shame, but he did it to himself! He had been gaining momentum and he had MY support, until he made him self look very much like a dick by attacking Herman Cain, it is one thing to criticize an opponent, quite another to be a disrespectful little prick towards him. Rick Santorum greatly diminished himself in my eyes with every snide remark he made to or about Herman Cain, a member of his own party and a genuinely nice guy, and I see by the polling that I am not the only one who feels this way. And like Bob Belvedere said, RS has been whining quite a bit and nobody likes a whiner. We already have a mean spirited guy in the WH and sadly, we also already have a whiner. Now I see what others tried to tell me, Rick Santorum does not seem to have the disposition that America needs to get us out of the craphole we’re in, almost none of them do, with the exceptions of Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain. I’d be perfectly happy to see those two on the GOP ticket, either way you want to stack it, because each has what the other lacks, they will complement eachother beautifully and give us exactly what we need in terms of optimism AND knowledge.
    Rick Perry says islam is a religion of peace, never forget that, he can go home and stay there for all I care, I can’t stand the guy.

  13. Attention GOP Establishment: Herman Cain Is The Frontrunner, Now – Not Romney « Nice Deb
    October 26th, 2011 @ 5:17 pm

    […] Cain Leads New Ohio Poll; Close to Romney in Nevada; Perry Fading Away […]

  14. ThePaganTemple
    October 26th, 2011 @ 5:37 pm

    Islam is a religion of piece-a piece of arm here, a piece or two of leg there, a piece of torso in this gutter, a piece of this, that and the other. If you go to an Arab country, the last thing you want to do is ask for a piece of ass.

  15. rosalie
    October 26th, 2011 @ 5:48 pm

    Santorum is nice looking and knowledgeable.  It’s too bad that he doesn’t have a nice personality to go along with it.    It dawned on me too that Cain/Gingrich might be a good ticket.  I thought of it because they’re going to participate in the Lincoln-Douglas Debate. 

  16. Anonymous
    October 26th, 2011 @ 6:09 pm

    Newt started the drill here, drill now “campaign,” but he doesn’t seem to be making that a critical part of his primary campaign.

    I wonder why?

  17. Anonymous
    October 26th, 2011 @ 6:12 pm

    Nuts. You know he’d never get nuthin’ from an apology.  It would make him look like a wuss.

    So he needs to just move on and declare he’s gonna protect the border and work to end the illegal alien problem.

    Better yet, drop out and endorse Cain or Bachmann.

  18. Anonymous
    October 26th, 2011 @ 6:15 pm

    But Mikhail Rove, Charlie Krauthammer, and “Skeletor” all just told us Cain ain’t goin’ nowhere.

    Am we in bizarro land now?  No, but they are.

  19. Joe
    October 26th, 2011 @ 7:05 pm

    You are all making Hugh Hewitt cry. 

  20. LeftCoastRed
    October 26th, 2011 @ 7:05 pm

    Wow. What kind of Teflon does Cain use? All these gaffes, one after another, and he just continues to rise. Amazing.

  21. Herman Cain Sure is On a Roll! | The Lonely Conservative
    October 26th, 2011 @ 7:33 pm

    […] the day I’ve had I’m way behind. Not to worry – I direct you to Nice Deb, and The Other McCain who are all over this story. Also, be sure to check out Stacy’s latest column in the American […]

  22. Anonymous
    October 26th, 2011 @ 7:49 pm

    Why, it’s the authentic Reagan-brand Happy Warrior Teflon! 🙂

  23. Herman Cain Sure is On a Roll! | Herman Cain PAC
    October 26th, 2011 @ 8:33 pm

    […] more, but after the day I’ve had I’m way behind. Not to worry – I direct you to Nice Deb, and The Other McCain who are all over this story. Also, be sure to check out Stacy’s latest column in the American […]

  24. McGehee
    October 26th, 2011 @ 9:53 pm

    Cain and Gingrich are from the same state. Georgia electors would have to vote for someone else for veep if such a ticket won on Election Day.

  25. Anonymous
    October 26th, 2011 @ 10:18 pm

     This has been the plan all along…Rove, after all, was the guy who convinced Perry to run as a Republican.  Rove’s “I hate Perry” is all part of their gameplan to make Perry look anti-establishment…don’t be fooled, they’re in bed with each other (great visual, huh?)

  26. Zilla of the Resistance
    October 26th, 2011 @ 10:52 pm

    You can’t have the POTUS & Veep be from the same state? Fiddlesticks! Then the next best choice is Santorum, he will be the Cheney to Cain’s GWB, then his demeanor being off putting will be OK,  as the serious & perhaps scary guy behind our confidently smiling Herman Cain. The veep controls the Senate, right? Well RS already has experience there!

  27. Anonymous
    October 27th, 2011 @ 12:10 am

    I think most of the candidates think we think it’s a given which it should be. It wouldn’t hurt to throw it out there from time to time.

  28. Anonymous
    October 27th, 2011 @ 12:12 am

     From the research I’ve done, they can’t LIVE in the same state.  Apparently Newt officially resides in Virginia now, so it could work I believe

  29. McGehee
    October 27th, 2011 @ 12:16 am

    Cheney got around it by keeping his voter reg in Wyoming despite living in Texas. Where is Newt registered?

  30. Anonymous
    October 27th, 2011 @ 12:17 am

    The VP is part of the decor or at most a little lower than a master of ceremony in the senate unless there is a 50/50 tie vote.

  31. Anonymous
    October 27th, 2011 @ 12:37 am


    Santorum reminds me of the character that ran for the Mayor of Baltimore in the series ” The Wire.”

    Good looking, started off with good intentions, gets into the gutter a bit, and a slight hypocrite. 

  32. Anonymous
    October 27th, 2011 @ 12:39 am

    Gingrich’s official residence is in Virgina.

    Cain and Gingrich could both be on the same ticket.

    How in the world do you think Bush and Chaney were on the same ticket when both are technically Texans?

    Chaney just used his Wyoming (or whatever state) residence.

  33. Herman Cain Sure is On a Roll! | My Blog
    October 27th, 2011 @ 3:03 am

    […] more, but after the day I’ve had I’m way behind. Not to worry – I direct you to Nice Deb, and The Other McCain who are all over this story. Also, be sure to check out Stacy’s latest column in the American […]

  34. McGehee
    October 27th, 2011 @ 4:04 pm

    Quoting myself, 23 minutes before your comment:

    Cheney got around it by keeping his voter reg in Wyoming despite living in Texas.

    And I spelled “Cheney” correctly.