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Report: Huntsman, Bachmann, Santorum Fail to Make Virginia Primary Ballot UPDATE: Close Calls for Newt and Perry

Posted on | December 22, 2011 | 68 Comments

A certain number of petition signatures had to be delivered by close of business today in order for candidates to be included on the ballot for the March 6 Virginia Republican primary.

Rick Santorum supporter Lisa Graas just informed me by e-mail that, according to University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato, three candidates — Santorum, Michele Bachmann and Jon Huntsman — failed to collect enough signatures in time to meet the qualifying deadline.

UPDATE: Andrew Cain of the Richmond Times-Dispatch reports:

Four Republican presidential candidates – Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry and Ron Paul — submitted paper work in time to qualify for Virginia’s March 6 primary ballot. . . .
Rep. Michele Bachmann, former Sen. Rick Santorum and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman did not submit signatures with Virginia’s State Board of Elections by today’s 5 p.m. deadline.
Those who submitted the required signatures must clear another hurdle. The Republican Party of Virginia has until Tuesday to certify which candidates qualify. . . .
The State Board of Elections will turn over the petitions to the respective political parties for validating. Republican will begin the process Friday morning and have sought volunteers to help with the process.
Candidates must submit the signatures of at least 10,000 registered voters, with 400 from each of the 11 Congressional districts.
Romney submitted 16,026 signatures; Paul 14,361; Perry 11,911 and Gingrich 11,050.

UPDATE II: NBC’s Alex Moe reports:

The Gingrich campaign might be able breathe a sigh of relief.
After Newt Gingrich’s third event in less than 24 hours in Virginia, the former House speaker announced that his campaign has secured enough signatures to be on the ballot in the state.

Notice that Perry also barely cleared the 10,000-signature threshold. As Lisa Graas notes below, because some signatures will prove ineligible, it is recommended that candidates get at least 15,000 signatures to qualify. If Romney wants to dispatch lawyers to keep an eye on the validation process, they might be able to disqualify enough petitions to knock Perry and Gingrich off the ballot.

UPDATE III: Hat tip to The Right Scoop on Twitter for this Politico article by Emily Schultheis adding further background:

The state’s primary, which is slated for Super Tuesday on March 6, has some of the most stringent ballot access requirements in the country: 10,000 signatures from registered Virginia voters, including 400 from each of the state’s 11 congressional districts. And the elections board recommends getting at least 1.5 times the number of required signatures — 15,000 for presidential candidates — in case any of them are found to be invalid.
Mitt Romney, who filed Tuesday, was the only candidate to get 1.5 times the required number of signatures . . .
The Gingrich campaign had announced yesterday, after “scrambling” to organize in the state, that it had reached the required number of signatures.
The state parties will certify the signatures from each of the candidates and decide by Dec. 27 whether or not the four GOP candidates are eligible to appear on the ballot, Piper said.

UPDATE IV: OK, we’ve nailed down the facts. Now for the big-picture “What Does It Mean?” stuff that’s usually above my paygrade. (Because it’s Thursday evening three days before Christmas, all the super-genius Smart Guy pundits in D.C. are off the clock, so I’ll give it a shot.)

The Right Scoop says, “I wonder if they struggled to get the 10k signatures needed.” And yeah, of course that was the situation.

On a conference call with grassroots supporters last week, a top Santorum staffer had discussed ballot-access issues in several states. Virginia was singled out as a tough one, because of the “stringent” factor described in the Politico article: Not just the 10,000-signature minimum, but you have to get 400 signatures in each of 11 congressional districts, and the deadline hit in the middle of the holiday season, at the same time that the campaigns were going all-out in Iowa.

The Santorum people on the conference call were asking for Virginia volunteers to help with their ballot-access drive, saying they were hoping for a “Christmas miracle.” Given the low-budget situation with the Santorum campaign, they had no other choice but rely on volunteers. (Romney, of course, could afford to hire professional ballot-access people.)

Contrast Santorum’s situation to the ballot shortfalls by Huntsman and Bachmann — both of whom have raised and spent multiples of Santorum’s campaign budget — and Santorum’s shortfall in Virginia, while certainly disappointing, is not nearly as embarrassing as the others.

The fact that Gingrich was “scrambling” to hit the 10,000-signature threshold in Virginia shows the gap between his high-profile “front-runner” status and the relative weakness of his campaign operation.

But certainly the biggest question mark is why Perry could only get about 900 more Virginia signatures than Newt. The Perry campaign had millions of dollars cash-on-hand in early September, and has unloaded a huge amount on TV ads the past month, yet they barely cleared the Virginia ballot threshold? That doesn’t bode well.

So, yeah: Romney’s now looking a bit more likely as the nominee.

UPDATE V: Welcome, Instapundit readers!

Now that I think about it, a wild-card idea: If we assume a four-way Virginia primary between Romney, Newt, Perry and Paul — that is to say, if Romney’s big-money lawyers can’t disqualify either Newt or Perry — could Ron Paul win Virginia?

Think about it: Gingrich and Perry waging an all-out knife-fight to be the “Not Mitt” conservative candidate, both of them taking their shots at Romney. Meanwhile, Paul’s army of fanatics descend on the Old Dominion to turn out every possible libertarian/Constitutionlist/fringe-kook vote. In a four-way primary, if the other three candidates run in the 20%-30% range, couldn’t a maximum effort by the Paulistas produce a shocking upset in Virginia?

War-gaming these crazy possibilities is such fun, isn’t it?

UPDATE VI: Now a Memeorandum thread. I’m sitting here with Fox News on the TV in my home office, and they haven’t even mentioned this story yet. Everything’s all, “Congressional compromise, blah, blah, blah, Iraq, blah, blah, blah.” Maybe they don’t grasp the significance. Probably because their super-genius Smart Guy pundits are all on holiday this week.


Category: Election 2012, Jon Huntsman, Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Virginia

Comments

68 Responses to “Report: Huntsman, Bachmann, Santorum Fail to Make Virginia Primary Ballot UPDATE: Close Calls for Newt and Perry”

  1. Zilla of the Resistance
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 5:35 pm

    Dang! 

  2. Lisa Graas
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 5:40 pm

    Rules from the Virginia State Board of Elections website: 
    Must be signed by not less than 10,000 qualified voters in Virginia,  including at least 400 qualified voters from each of Virginia=s eleven congressional districts, who attest that they intend to participate in the primary of the same political party as the candidate named on the petition. Because many people who are not registered to vote will sign a petition, it is recommended that 15,000 – 20,000 signatures be obtained with at least 700 signatures from each congressional district. 

  3. smitty
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 6:00 pm

    Romney wants to dispatch lawyers to keep an eye on the validation process, they might be able to disqualify enough petitions to knock Perry and Gingrich off the ballot.

    Oh, what a perfectly legal, Barack-tacular play that would be.

  4. victoria_29
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 6:05 pm

    And VA matters why?

  5. Bachmann, Huntsman, Santorum not on Virginia primary ballot | The Right Scoop
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 6:05 pm

    […] 27 whether or not the four GOP candidates are eligible to appear on the ballot, Piper said.(h/t: The Other McCain)—Tweet!function(d,s,id){var […]

  6. Bachmann, Huntsman, Santorum not on Virginia primary ballot | The Right Scoop
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 6:05 pm

    […] 27 whether or not the four GOP candidates are eligible to appear on the ballot, Piper said.(h/t: The Other McCain)—Tweet!function(d,s,id){var […]

  7. Anonymous
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 6:08 pm

    Exactly. But if Mitt’s spending millions to blanket Iowa with attack ads, why not also drop $50,000 to send a crew of lawyers to Virginia for a few days to screw his opponents?

  8. Jerry Stratton
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 6:16 pm

    If people start thinking you’re not serious, you won’t get the votes in states where you did qualify. This definitely doesn’t help Santorum’s efforts to be taken seriously in Iowa.

  9. Anonymous
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 6:22 pm

    Because it is the fourth largest Super Tuesday primary after GA, TN and OH ?

  10. Instapundit » Blog Archive » OOPS: Report: Huntsman, Bachmann, Santorum Fail to Make Virginia Primary Ballot UPDATE: Close Calls…
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 6:28 pm

    […] OOPS: Report: Huntsman, Bachmann, Santorum Fail to Make Virginia Primary Ballot UPDATE: Close Calls for Ne… […]

  11. SDN
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 6:48 pm

    Like I said, Clorox dipped Obama. Like Lincoln, I’d rather take my despotism pure.

  12. Anonymous
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 6:49 pm

    Perhaps zee Comrade Obama vill not get zee number of signatures either? Zee hope springs supernatural!

  13. Lisa Graas
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 6:53 pm

    I’m all in with Santorum. Just sayin’…

  14. E Holder
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 6:55 pm

    That is not correct, the Obama Administrations record on voter fraud and fake signatures is clear.

  15. smitty
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 7:18 pm

    Because it’s one thing to call your opponent everything but a Kenyan, it’s quite another to kick him off a ballot.

  16. Liberty Jane
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 7:26 pm

    I have tons of fanatic Ron Paul friends in Virginia. He’ll definitely have a huge shot to win here.

  17. Liberty Jane
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 7:26 pm

    I should mention they’re mostly homeschoolers, btw.

  18. Liberty Jane
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 7:27 pm

    A fun test on facebook:  look at each candidate’s facebook page, and see how many of your friends like him or her. I was so surprised that the majority of mine liked Ron Paul.

  19. Anonymous
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 7:27 pm

    Wouldn’t Ron Paul’s chances in a given State turn entirely – or at least primarily – on rules permitting non-Republicans to vote?  E.g., the only reason Paul will be #1 or #2 in Iowa is because Independents & Democrats can change their registration to Republican the same day as the caucus.  I imagine things are more strict in VA, but then I also imagine a good number of Paultards have been gaming the system, and may have already registered in VA & other States…so now I don’t know.

    Is there any one site that details the Republican registration requirements for all primary/caucus States, or do we have to Google that information for each State?

  20. Liberty Jane
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 7:53 pm

    It’s pathetic, since Rick Santorum actually *lives* here.  But Virginia is a completely open primary,  so anything could happen!

  21. just a conservative girl
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 8:01 pm

    Ok, this is really pathetic.  We had an election here about 8 weeks ago.  Every person showing up at the polls was obviously a registered voter.  Ripe for the picking.  

    I worked at two different locations that day doing volunteer work.  The only people collecting signatures were Obama, Romney and Newt.  

    Why didn’t Santorum and Bachmann have people out on election day?   I spoke with three or four other people who were also working on election day here and they told me the same thing.  

    Obama and Romney supporters were at each of them.  

    I does say something about what type of campaign they are running.  There data mining could have easily given them the names of supporters who lived in VA and sent them emails asking to help.  It really is an easy process, you just have to get them notarized.  

  22. K-Bob
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 8:01 pm

    If only the Republicans could use the dead and the fictional like the Democrats do, petitions would be easy!

  23. Anonymous
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 8:47 pm

    Happens all the time. In 2000, it was right down to the wire over who would be on New York’s GOP primary ballot. I forget whether it was Bush trying to keep McCain off or vice versa.

    In Illinois, the GOP used to play games trying to invalidate the Libertarian Party’s signatures every four years. Finally the Illinois LP sued the Illinois GOP for a million bucks for fraud, and suddenly that shit stopped.

  24. smitty
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 8:49 pm

    His ideas are not unlikeable. He himself seems a tolerable chap. Some of the details of his candidacy make him a total non-starter.

  25. smitty
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 8:55 pm

    Everyone should vote their conscience in the primary. But I pray that everyone has a reality check and does what is necessary to send #OccupyResoluteDesk down in defeat.
    Heaven help these Paulestinians if they goon up the conservative vote to the point that we get another four years of BHO. This is just not the time to be fannying about. Please relay that.

  26. Pathfinder's wife
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 9:10 pm

    My uneducated opinion: he probably won’t.  Bad optics, plus having Ron Paul in there (even winning a couple primaries) actually helps Romney out.

    The establishment and the bloggers heads will explode, and then they’ll coalesce behind Romney rather than run the risk of Crazy Ron actually managing to win more than a couple of primaries (not enough to make it look obvious that something was shady if RP didn’t get the nom; just enough to dash the hopes of all the other “not-Romneys”).

    It could be a risky ploy, but it could very well work.

  27. Pathfinder's wife
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 9:14 pm

    Maybe, but after the Manning relevation this week, I’m pretty sure RP is now dead in the water.  He just hasn’t sunk yet.

    Other than the fanatics, it’s just gotten a whole lot harder (to the point of impossible) to make allowances for some of the things he says.

  28. Pathfinder's wife
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 9:19 pm

    I’ve got a friend being snarky with me and daring/pushing me to delete because I expressed frustration (desperation more likely) over RP’s crazier moments (wish his good ideas didn’t come with such bad ones), but I believe said friend is a Perrykrishna as said friend is a regular over at a certain other site.

    It’s crazy.  These are just politicians…oh well.

  29. Scott Conklin
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 9:26 pm

    The desperate Paul bashing is hysterical.  Particularly humorous is the one crying about Dems crossing over to vote for a constitutionalist.  Maybe the Republican Party First partisans should think about voting for issues rather than party.  Or maybe you really want to run a loser like Mitt against Owebama this time so we can have McCain Redux.  Whatever it takes as long as the Party will prevails, right?  Imbeciles.

  30. ThomasD
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 9:29 pm

    Paul’s army of fanatics descend on the Old Dominion to turn out every possible libertarian/Constitutionlist/fringe-kook vote.

    My work takes me all over SW VA every month – from Tazewell west into KY.  Judging from what I saw the last time around Paul’s army doesn’t need to descend they will merely need to re-awaken. 

  31. Dcmick
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 10:07 pm

    Such a gambit would backfire on Romney, for it would remind people what a little sneak he is.

    Republicans want Obama DEFEATED, not imitated, and certainly not additionally imitated by the author of Romneycare.

  32. Dcmick
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 10:09 pm

    Get your references right, or as RSM referenced Obama being described as “a slim Kenyan” who wasn’t a stranger to a certain community in Chicago.

  33. Dcmick
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 10:11 pm

    Bingo!

    Virginians considered him a joke candidacy who was merely trying to get his name out there so he could transition to a Fox News commentator.

  34. Dcmick
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 10:12 pm

    You’re dead right.

    The placement of Virginia in the overall primary season should have been mentioned in the first paragraph, or at the very least the second.

    Readers were left asking your very question paragraph after paragraph, and never did receive any satisfactory answer.

    And this by the guy who constantly gives us all pointers on Journalism 101.

  35. Dcmick
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 10:15 pm

    The reason they didn’t have people “out there” is that there weren’t people available to their campaigns.

    Who wants to stand out there for wild-eyed Bachmann?

    Or stand out there for the tiresome Santorum?

  36. Whoops - Southern Maryland Community Forums
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 10:36 pm

    […] Report: Huntsman, Bachmann, Santorum Fail to Make Virginia Primary Ballot UPDATE: Close Calls for Ne… Looks like Mitt's their guy. __________________ Stepford Wife meets Beth the Bounty […]

  37. Sam G
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 10:38 pm

    Romney doesn’t have to dispatch any lawyers. Republican Party of Virginia will verify the signatures on their own.

  38. Anonymous
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 10:45 pm

    If Romney gets the nomination with dirty dealing, lies, and character attacks – I don’t see that he is any better than Obama.  We know he is not a conservative – just liberal light.  If he is a liar too and we can’t trust him, we may as well stay home on election day and deal with the devil we know. 

    I never thought I would say this because I am adamantly opposed to Obama – but I don’t like what I am seeing. 

    Romney tells Newt if he doesn’t like the heat to get out of the kitchen, but refuses to debate him one-on-one?  What is the matter – doesn’t he think he can win based on his ideas and plans for the country?

    He is not showing the voters any respect or giving anyone a reason to vote for him if he is afraid to debate Newt without all the other candidates there to carry the load!!! 

    Newt is right – this election is too important and should be won on substance and ideas – not sound bites, one-liners, game-show style debates and attack ads.  THAT is politics as usual and I thought Americans were fed up with all of that.  I know I am!

  39. Not a Fiasco « Catholic Bandita
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 10:45 pm

    […] McCain and I were both on the conference call he writes about. On a conference call with grassroots supporters last week, a top Santorum staffer had discussed […]

  40. Paula Bolyard
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 10:54 pm

    In Ohio, it took an advanced jujitsu move by the GOP central committee to get McCain on the ballot. He had filed under the procedure used for candidates accepting federal matching funds. When he later declined the matching funds (so he could raise unlimited $) the state GOP fudged the rules and let him stay on the ballot. They made a point of getting rid of that rule for this year’s primary.

  41. AngelaTC
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 11:04 pm

    But the point you’re missing is that with the new winner-doesn’t-take-all GOP rules,  all the candidates that are in the 20 – 30% range will likely all take a delegate. 

  42. Adjoran
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 11:18 pm

    Nice editing job on the quote. 

  43. just a conservative girl
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 11:19 pm

    I may be mistaken, but I believe that VA is still winner take all.

  44. Grumley
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 11:20 pm

    Your skepticism would be warranted, except that I watched that exact thing happen here in my county in South Carolina. The Dem leaders announced that they were targeting several County Council seats and were encouraging Dem voters to cross over and vote in the Republican primary (we have open primaries; you can vote in either primary, just not both) for a candidate that the Dems felt they could beat in the general. The strategy worked. Several long-time incumbents that normally would have won handily, lost.  If I remember right, most of the Dem candidates went on to win the general. In my particular district, the Dem crossovers skewed the vote in the primary just enough to cause a runoff between the fairly popular incumbent and  the Dem “supported” Republican candidate. Eventually, the “Dem-backed” challenger won after 2 runoffs, but contrary to the Dems plan, went on to win in the general. However, this joke of a candidate ultimately got caught hacking fellow Council members and the County Administrators e-mails and spent time in the Federal pen. I know this example is a local election and not on the scale of a Presidential election, but the fact is if it can happen on the local level, it can happen (and probably will eventually) happen on the Presidential scale, especially in states that have open primaries.  And given the Democrat Party’s current lust for power, they will stop at nothing to skew the Republican primaries in an attempt to “select” a candidate that they feel they can defeat. And given that the Dem candidate is already selected for them, this may be an opportunity for them to create a little mischief and mayhem in the Republican primary.

  45. Adjoran
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 11:20 pm

    So you take 100% speculation (“IF…” was left out) by people who already hate Romney, and assume it is true.  Now go forth and spread the word.

    Just don’t pretend to be honest.

  46. Adjoran
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 11:23 pm

    Why would Romney debate Newt one-on-one?  It would give Newt the position of THE “not Romney” candidate instead of letting the voters decide. 

    Slick attempt by Newt, knowing the average person would see it as a challenge declined.

  47. Adjoran
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 11:28 pm

    His ideas about blacks, or his ideas about gays?  Or about Jews?  Or his ideas about islamists being no threat?  Or his ideas about concealing his pork spending and earmarks so he can appear to be against spending?  Or making millions from selling a newsletter and then claiming he didn’t write it or know what was in it?

    Or his idea to promote gold while almost his whole net worth is in gold mining stocks?  Or his idea to label many things “unconstitutional” which have long been established as constitutional?

    Which of these ideas is “not unlikeable” to you?

  48. Adjoran
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 11:29 pm

    There is no party registration in Virginia.  All primaries are open to all – the only restriction is to be a registered voter, and you cannot vote in a run-off if held by one party if you voted in the other party’s primary already.

  49. Adjoran
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 11:30 pm

    Nice haircut, Skinhead.

  50. Adjoran
    December 22nd, 2011 @ 11:31 pm

    You are correct.  The proportional rules are only for primaries scheduled before March 6.

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