The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

IOWA CAUCUS RESULTS HQ
UPDATE: Santorum Surge in Precinct Numbers Exceeds Poll Projections

Posted on | January 3, 2012 | 72 Comments

JOHNSTON, Iowa
UPDATE 2:30 a.m. CT: Well, I’ve hit my deadline for The American Spectator, and Phil Klein of the Washington Examiner has invited me to breakfast. All rest of the press corps have left the Stoney Brook here, except for a guy filing an article for a French magazine. And this will be my final update of the night/early morning. Here’s a picture of the candidate and his family:

They were accepting a gift from one of their Iowa supporters. And I want to thank all of our readers — and Smitty, and my wife — for helping make this trip possible. Here’s the obligatory photo of the National Affairs Desk:

I’m outta here. I’ll be flying out Thursday to New Hampshire. Hit the freaking tip jar!

UPDATE 12:20 a.m. CT: Finally collected the beer that Santorum’s Iowa field director Jake Braunger had promised me. That 24-year-old kid just became an American political legend. Not for buying me a beer, but for leading the grassroots army which — as of this point, with 99% of the precincts reporting — has Santorum winning with an 18-vote margin.

UPDATE 11:50 p.m. CT: Just got through with Senator Santor’s victory speech. Robert Costa of NRO and I were back by the door. The room was packed past fire-code capacity and the cops wouldn’t let anyone else in. That was when the New York Times photographer showed up and tried to get past the cops.

No way, the cops wouldn’t yield. “But … I’m from the New York Times.”

The cops didn’t care. Nobody was getting past them.

A triumph for The Rule of Law in the American Heartland.

And I remember when Santorum couldn’t get any national media coverage except . . . Well, me.

UPDATE 10:53 p.m. CT: Rick Perry just began his concession speech — a humiliating fifth-place finish for the former front-runner. Can’t hear the TV here in the Loose Moose Saloon, so I’m not sure, but I think he started his speech with four words: “Howdy. Thank you, Erick.”

UPDATE 10:45 p.m. CT: Gingrich and Bachmann have given their concession speeches. When will Mitt Romney give the speech admitting that he just got beat by Rick Santorum, a guy who spent a mere fraction of what the perennial front-runner spent? The natives here are getting restless waiting for the victory speech, and I’ve got an editor in Washington, D.C., waiting for me to file a column tonight.

Best thing about being a U.S. ambassador, I’m told: There are no deadlines in the diplomatic corps. Hit the freaking tip jar!

UPDATE 10:10 p.m. CT: Ron Paul just conceded. He’ll finish third. Here at Santorum Victory HQ, a campaign spokesman just did a mike-check at the party: “Let’s just say that Senator Santorum is in high spirits.” A speech by the man of the hour is expected shortly. The scene inside the big room:

I’ll have to go wedge myself into that room, if I’m gonna get video. So it will be a few minutes before I can update again.

Hit the freaking tip jar!

UPDATE 9:27 p.m. CT: Results with 49% of precincts:

Rick Santorum …. 13,594 (24%)
Mitt Romney …… 13,204 (24%)
Ron Paul …………. 12,205 (22%)
Newt Gingrich ….. 7,426 (13%)
Rick Perry ……….. 5,544 (10%)
Bachmann ………… 3,140 (6%)

Santorum now has more votes than Gingrich and Perry combined.

UPDATE 9:20 p.m. CT: Demonstrating the power of Rick Santorum to bring America together, I have just revoked all my previous threats to whup David Brooks’s ass:

Good-bye, grassroots populist street cred! Hello, Vanuatu!

UPDATE 8:55 p.m. CT: The latest with 31% of precincts:

Mitt Romney …… 7,844 (23%)
Rick Santorum …. 7,726 (23%)
Ron Paul …………. 7,655 (23%)
Newt Gingrich ….. 4,440 (13%)
Rick Perry ……….. 3,433 (10%)
Bachmann …………. 1,922 (6%)

Just bumped into a member of Santorum’s South Carolina organization — y’know, the organization that all the Smart Guy pundits keep saying Santorum doesn’t have — who said to me: “Vanuatu’s looking pretty good now, huh?”

Yeah. They read my stuff.

(9:15 p.m. CT: Smitty compiled the following aggregation of links.)

Nate Silver: “Why I’d Bet on Santorum (and Against My Model)”

Our model is more optimistic about Mr. Santorum than those of other objective forecasting systems, which give him about 16 percent of the vote. The reason is that our model gives extra credit to Mr. Santorum for his momentum in the closing days of the campaign. But there is some reason to think that it is still giving Mr. Santorum too little credit.
The momentum factor in our model is derived from an analysis of competitive primaries and caucuses throughout the country since 1980. It does not contain any Iowa-specific variables, although it does recognize that polling in Iowa and other early-voting states tends to be more erratic than polling in later-voting states.
There is reason to think, however, that momentum might be especially important in Iowa.

Erick Erickson: “What if Santorum Wins?”

If Santorum wins, a lot of people will be correct in saying Mitt Romney is still a winner because Santorum has no money or real organization to go beyond Iowa.
But my God in Heaven, the media is finally going to be confronted with an “Emperor Has No Clothes” moment on Romney too. That remains the most under reported story of 2012. Mitt Romney, campaigning since 2006 for President has managed to go from 23% to 23% in six years.

The Hill: “Ron Paul supporters heckle Santorum“:

Rick Santorum was heckled by Ron Paul supporters as he left a high school in West Des Moines on Tuesday. The crowd chanted “Big-spending Rick” and “nah nah nah nah, hey hey hey, goodbye.” When The Hill asked Santorum what he thought of the crowd as they began chanting, he paused, smiled tightly and said “It’s the crowd at the caucuses that matters.”

UPDATE 8:32 p.m. CT: The latest numbers, with 24% of precincts reporting:

Ron Paul …………. 6,067
Rick Santorum …. 6,060
Mitt Romney …… 6,018

I hereby demand a personal apology from everyone who ever said that either Gingrich or Perry were the only candidates who could stop Romney.

* * * PREVIOUSLY (7 p.m. CT) * * *

Greetings from the beautiful Stoney Creek Inn, scene of tonight’s Rick Santorum victory party. It is now 7 p.m. CT, which means that Iowa Republicans have just assembled in precinct caucus locations across the Hawkeye State where they will cast the ballots that will determine the GOP nomination next President of the United States destiny of the Free World fate of all humanity.

If you’re in Iowa tonight, it’s important that you come to the beautiful Stoney Creek Inn so you can celebrate Rick Santorum’s victory and also, incidentally, buy me beers.

If you’re not in Iowa tonight, we will be bringing you all the news and results from tonight’s contest, the results of which are impossible to predict beyond the fact — a Neutral Objective Fact — that Rick Santorum will crush all rivals like Godzilla stomped Tokyo. And you’ll want to refresh the site throughout the night for continuous updates as soon as these dadgum Iowa voters decide whether they want to

A. Vote for Rick Santorum, the Only Man Who Can Save America From Another Four Years of Barack Obama™;
B. Sell their souls to the GOP Establishment by voting for the Worst RINO in the History of RINO-dom.
C. Cast a protest vote against the “Israel lobby,” IYKWIMAITYD; or
D. Waste their votes on some doomstruck loser.

You may disagree with that assessment, but it’s as valid as Joy McCann’s ridiculous arguments on behalf of one of those doomstruck losers.

UPDATE 7:44 p.m. CT: Bad news. Rick Santorum Victory Celebration has . . . a cash bar.

I just told the lady I should be covering the the Romney campaign, where I’m sure the press gets all the free booze they want.

UPDATE 7:54 p.m. CT: A couple of photos:


The lady at the Media Credentials Check-In Table searches her database for the name of the Future Ambassador to Vanuatu.


Campaign manager Mike Biundo, who just gave an impromptu press conference here at the Loose Moose Saloon, which is where the press filing center is located. Zeke Miller of Buzz Feed Politics supplies the quotes. (I figure the junior members of the press corps do the transcription.)

The first results on TV showed a neck-and-neck tie, with Santorum actually leading and, when I said, “Santorum leading!” Somebody in the press filing center said, “Four percent” — the percentage of precincts reporting. To which I replied, “Don’t harsh my mellow, man.”

UPDATE 8:20 p.m. CT: Guess who showed up at Santorum HQ? The guy who’s been badmouthing Santorum for days:

The latest Iowa returns show Rick Perry a weak fifth place, barely 10% in Iowa. “Howdy. Thank you, Erick.”


Category: Election 2012, Fear and Loathing in Iowa, Iowa

Comments

72 Responses to “IOWA CAUCUS RESULTS HQ
UPDATE: Santorum Surge in Precinct Numbers Exceeds Poll Projections”

  1. IOWA: Where The Hawkeye Pierces The GOP « The Camp Of The Saints
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 8:05 pm

    […] Follow Stacy’s Live-Blogging here. […]

  2. Live Stream – Iowa GOP caucus results : Fire Andrea Mitchell!
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 8:06 pm

    […] has a live stream of the Iowa Caucus. For more coverage, I recommend checking out HotAir, The Other McCain, and Weasel […]

  3. Steve in TN
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 8:17 pm

    Just Tweet, Baby…  #iacaucas

  4. richard mcenroe
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 8:23 pm

    Stacy and the ‘Stang! (Unedited version) http://tinyurl.com/7j8owyt 
    Earliest tweets from Iowa not cheery for Newt, Bachmann.

  5. Mike G.
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 8:43 pm

     Hey Stacy, I’ll spring for a beer or twelve when you come to South Carolina, God willing and the creek don’t rise.

  6. Anonymous
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 8:50 pm

    If the trend at 1% precincts reporting holds, I suspect that cash bar will turn into an open bar here in a couple of hours.

  7. Anonymous
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 8:55 pm

    4% reporting; Paul 24%, Santorum 24%, Romney 22%. 

  8. Adjoran
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 9:06 pm

    Nobody can afford to give the press all the free booze they want.

    Well, they couldn’t a few years ago.  Some of these fresh-faced youngsters live on Red Bull and Energy Shots, which partially explains the continuing decline of the quality of writing in the media.

  9. Anonymous
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 9:09 pm

    If Santorum wins, he’s going to want to nail down a continuing press entourage. Nothing beats feeding them bourbon, positioning them with same-sex partners, and taking pictures to make that happen.

  10. Drek
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 9:14 pm

    There’s a reason the  media goes hard left………

  11. Time for Conservatives to Unite?
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 9:34 pm

    […] Stacy checks in from his mission to undermine the GOP. He’s got a few provocative words for me, but I daren’t hit back; when I do that, he cries like a little girl. Tags: Arlen […]

  12. Steve in TN
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 9:45 pm

    If you are REALLY on CENTRAL TIME, that 9:32 update is an 8:32 update… Unless your doing that Marty McFly thing.

  13. Anonymous
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 9:45 pm

    Rick Santorum’s success is do to Stacy starting a stampede.  I know about this.  

  14. Anonymous
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 9:49 pm

    Hmmm … you’re showing us results timestamped 9:32pm CT. It’s now 8:49pm CT. That must be one hell of an inside source.

  15. Steve in TN
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 10:01 pm

    And now @rsmccain is slow by an hour… Playing Chicago’s _Does Anybody Really Know What Time It Is_ just for Stacy.

  16. ThePaganTemple
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 10:04 pm

    Santorum and Romney are tied at 24% each, Paul down to 22%. Here’s something from Google Maps, I guess you’re supposed to refresh it and you get real time results-

    http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results

  17. Anonymous
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 10:13 pm

    due to (sorry)

  18. Steve in TN
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 10:16 pm

    @rsmccain Hey, any positions open at the Vanuatu consulate?

  19. » Iowa Caucuses LIVE - Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 10:17 pm

    […] Elsewhere:  Robert Stacy McCain from Santorum HQ in Iowa. […]

  20. Joe
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 10:29 pm

    You obviously have political experience and a take no prisoner philosophy.  

  21. Because They Sure Aren’t Gonna Get the Job Done In Iowa Alone…. | Daily Pundit
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 10:32 pm

    […] Gonna Get the Job Done In Iowa Alone…. Posted on January 3, 2012 7:30 pm by Bill Quick IOWA CAUCUS RESULTS HQ UPDATE: Santorum Surge in Precinct Numbers Exceeds Poll Projections : The Oth… I hereby demand a personal apology from everyone who ever said that either Gingrich or Perry were […]

  22. Anonymous
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 10:32 pm

    I don’t know where the bodies are buried — never asked after I ran them through the wood chipper and into the truck.

  23. M. Thompson
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 10:39 pm

    Stacy McCain and the Search for Sinecure just might.  Go.  All.  The.  Way.

  24. Dan King
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 10:39 pm

    I started reading this blog when Stacy was still on the Cain Train. I gotta admit – I’m still on the Cain Train. He was by far the best candidate in the race.

    But my second choice is – sorry to say – Mitt Romney. I’m not really a social conservative, but rather flexibly pro-life (as Cain appeared to be). I’m also very much pro-immigration: legal immigration is better than the illegal sort, but the worst case is no immigration. And I think Santorum’s ideas about restoring a manufacturing economy are just nuts. He endorsed Arlen Spector. So I can’t support him.

    My third choice is Newt, if only for the entertainment value.

  25. Anonymous
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 10:40 pm

    I got nuthin’ about the election, but I saw a House Hunters International  Vanuatu on tv the other night and it is GORGEOUS.

  26. Stuart
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 10:40 pm

    Where is Santorum HQ at tonight?

  27. Iowa Caucus Results – It’s Close! | The Lonely Conservative
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 10:41 pm

    […] broken wrist is starting to throb uncontrollably, so I’m going to bed. Not to worry, though. The Other McCain is blogging live from the Santorum HQ. “Santorum now has more votes than Gingrich and […]

  28. ThePaganTemple
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 10:42 pm

    Here’s another one with live results from Talking Points Memo, showing Santorum ahead of Romney by about half a percent, with Paul sliding just a tad further down.

    http://core.talkingpointsmemo.com/election/results/iowa-caucuses-r

  29. Anonymous
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 10:46 pm

    Santorum’s starting to pull away — 25% to Romney’s 23% and Paul’s 21%.  Didn’t catch % reporting, but it’s over half.

  30. ThePaganTemple
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 10:46 pm

    Whoa now Santorum is almost two points ahead of Romney and almost four points ahead of Paul.

  31. Anonymous
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 10:48 pm

    Live video from Santorum HQ. Pretty sure I saw a fedora lurking in the distance behind the reporter.

  32. richard mcenroe
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 10:50 pm

    “Where are the bodies buried, punk.”

    *Looks around the city hall park* “Um, everywhere?”

  33. richard mcenroe
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 10:56 pm

     Remember the folks who believed in ya, Mr. McCain, sir… 

  34. GayPatriot » What explains the Santorum surge?
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 10:59 pm

    […] but do know that Rick Santorum has done much better than most pundits and bloggers (save perhaps Stacy McCain) predicted.  Right now, Rick Santorum holds a slight lead over Mitt Romney, with Ron Paul in […]

  35. 2012 Iowa Republican Caucus: Its a Three Way Race Between Romney, Santorum and Paul | Scared Monkeys
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 11:01 pm

    […] updates can be found at The Other McCain … Santorum having a hell of a showing tonight, Beating even surge projections. Talk about […]

  36. richard mcenroe
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 11:02 pm

    …and to paraphrase Mayor Daley, “Who was with me before Iowa?”

    http://tinyurl.com/6wjljsr

  37. Raucous in the Caucus – Will Santorum Squeak Out a Win? (News Round-up) « Nice Deb
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 11:14 pm

    […] Other McCain: IOWA CAUCUS RESULTS HQ UPDATE: Santorum Surge in Precinct Numbers Exceeds Poll Projections Linked by Michelle Malkin, thanks! GA_googleAddAttr("AdOpt", "1"); GA_googleAddAttr("Origin", […]

  38. Rebecca
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 11:20 pm

    Love your reporting! It’s been a crazy, exciting night!!

  39. EBL
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 11:33 pm

    http://evilbloggerlady.blogspot.com/2012/01/there-can-be-only-one-cafe.html

  40. Iowa Caucus Results « Steve's Blog
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 11:35 pm

    […] IOWA CAUCUS RESULTS HQ UPDATE: Santorum Surge in … […]

  41. The Wondering Jew
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 11:42 pm

    Stacy, enjoy Vanuatu– maybe it will be the last conservative holdout after a Santorum Presidency destroys what’s left of the Republican party. (and that’s in the “happy situation” where he actually wins)

     A lucky win by an establishment Neocon who was so unappealing he had to literally exhaust every other frontrunner for him to sneak under the line essentially unvetted in any serious way.  When the liberals turns their guns on him, they’ll be nothing left of him.

    Not that it will matter, since he’s a big government conservative anyway.

  42. Widely Disrespected Blogger Inches Closer to Tropical Ambassadorship
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 11:43 pm

    […] Stacy McCain’s been in the thick of things in Iowa, tied in with Rick Santorum’s campaign, which, at this moment, leads in the caucus returns narrowly over Romney and Paul. Paul’s campaign has likely received a boost from Dems who are gaming the system, as well as his army of oddball supporters. […]

  43. The Wondering Jew
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 11:45 pm

    OTOH, your first “Flavor of the month” Herman Cain, beat Buddy Roemer by 10 votes, so I guess that counts as a win.

    Sorry to be bitter and snarky.  It’s not that I ever really have any hope for the GOP, but they still manage to disappoint my low expectations anyway.

  44. Pathfinder's wife
    January 3rd, 2012 @ 11:55 pm

    Don’t be bitter just yet — interesting results coming out of Iowa when you consider the 3 folks at the top, what they each represent (to the majority of voters), and how close they were.  How the rest of the country goes may be worth watching.

     (I don’t consider this sort of spread to be going away win; this was very close — again, it should tell the people in power something…but, again, they won’t listen).

  45. Finrod Felagund
    January 4th, 2012 @ 12:09 am

    Congrats, Stacy.  Just keep in mind with the good night that you’re having that the ultimate goal is to have an even better night come 44 weeks from now in November.
     

  46. Erik McA
    January 4th, 2012 @ 12:32 am

    Stacy, after the severe disappointment with Herman, I’m glad your man is coming through. I can see Santorum being a good President. I just wish he hadn’t been so negative towards Herman.

  47. IOWA CAUCUS RESULTS HQ UPDATE: Santorum Surge in … | News Strom
    January 4th, 2012 @ 12:42 am

    […] Posted on | January 3, 2012 | 17 Comments […]

  48. EBL
    January 4th, 2012 @ 12:58 am

    Rick Perry dropping out?  (check out the whoa! link) http://evilbloggerlady.blogspot.com/2012/01/there-can-be-only-one-cafe.html

  49. EBL
    January 4th, 2012 @ 1:02 am

    The coveted John McCain endorsement?  

    And Rick Perry to reassess?  

    Check out “whoa”

    http://evilbloggerlady.blogspot.com/2012/01/there-can-be-only-one-cafe.html

  50. Adjoran
    January 4th, 2012 @ 1:15 am

    Still a cliffhanger with a few precincts missing, but obviously the big story is Santorum’s huge late surge (predicted by some guy in a funny hat, can’t put the name with the smiling mug right now).

    Santorum’s “victory” speech was the best I’ve heard him deliver.  Personal and emotional, yet strong and inspiring.  I assume it draws heavily on his stump speech, but I hadn’t heard that yet.

    Santorum is the story no matter what, but it does matter if his lead holds when those missing precincts are counted.  A defeat of Romney gives him even more momentum.

    New Hampshire is very difficult for him because of the collapsed schedule (thanks for nothing, Florida).  All the ad time is already reserved in New Hampshire outlets and all the prime time in the Boston market as well, so even with the influx of money he won’t be able to get many TV ads up.

    If I were advising him, I’d suggest he hit every TV and radio station in the state and play that up:  “I’d love to buy ads on your station, but you won’t sell me any!  How about a  live interview?”  Since he is – forgive me – the Flava of the Month, they’ll all be happy to give him free media.

    I would also suggest he keep the contrasts with Romney oblique, not mentioning Mitt or “RomneyCare” by name, stay positive.  Gingrich is ticked off and has $9 million to spend to get even with Romney.  Let him do the dirty work, he’s more natural at it anyway.