IOWA CAUCUS PREDICTION
Posted on | February 1, 2016 | 47 Comments
Jeb Bush will lose. The question is, will he be crushed, embarrassed and humiliated so badly that he quits? Probably not:
Jeb Bush’s supporters have spent $15 million on slickly produced ads to win over Iowa voters. Barely registering in the polls and increasingly desperate in the shadow of the Iowa caucuses, he’s now trying a cost-free, personal tactic: hugs.
When 67-year-old Harrison Cass, Jr., of Waterloo, pledged to caucus for Bush Monday night, the former Florida governor jogged across a crowded town hall-style meeting to embrace him.
“I give out hugs,” Bush said at the Cedar Falls event. “I’m from Miami, that’s what we do.”
Bush, once considered the Republican presidential front-runner, is doing whatever it takes to stay relevant in the 2016 contest.
And whether it’s a friendly squeeze or a scathing attacks ad from his allies, he’s showing no signs of going quietly. That’s despite the wishes of some Republican strategists, who fear his underdog candidacy is making it harder for his party’s mainstream wing to coalesce behind another candidate.
All the while, billionaire businessman Donald Trump has maintained a huge lead over the so-called establishment candidates.
Bush’s super PAC, Right to Rise, has disgorged tens of millions of dollars attacking the candidates seen to be in direct competition with him: Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.
Right to Rise has spent more than $24 million on ads contrasting the former Florida governor with one or more of those three, most often Rubio, data from advertising tracker Kantar Media’s CMAG show. That’s on top of a tidal wave of millions of dollars of mail to voters in Iowa and New Hampshire opposing Rubio, Kasich and Christie — sometimes all three at once, expenses documented in Federal Election Commission reports.
Overall, Bush’s allied super PAC had spent more than $80 million on television and radio advertising this campaign season as of midday Sunday. That includes more than $15 million in Iowa alone — which is about as much as the total by super PACs aligned with the other Republican candidates still in the race.
The possibility of a Bush comeback is the Phantom Menace of 2016. For 10 days, ever since National Review devoted its cover to an all-out attack on Trump, I’ve been haunted by this scenario: Somehow, Jeb survives an embarrassing fifth-place finish in Iowa and then, with a massive ad blitz, takes fourth-place in New Hampshire — a result that drives both Kasich and Christie from the field. Next, the Nevada caucuses, where Jeb again finishes fourth and then South Carolina, where an unprecedented onslaught of Bush TV ads combined with endorsements by sold-out GOP officials enables Jeb to finish third, ahead of Rubio. If Marco finishes fourth in South Carolina, he’s doomed, and this would effectively make it a three-man race — Trump, Cruz and Bush — heading into Super Tuesday on March 1.
Super Tuesday is only a month away, and here’s the question: Why shouldn’t Team Bush, which has already unloaded more than $80 million to get Jeb to 2% in Iowa, hang on for another month and try to make that comeback happen? Neither of his so-called “mainstream” Republican rivals, Kasich and Christie, has a hope in hell of going all the way. If Jeb can just endure a few defeats, he’s three weeks from South Carolina, where the latest Real Clear Politics average shows this:
Trump …….. 36.0%
Cruz ………… 19.7%
Rubio ………. 12.7%
Bush ………… 10.0%
If the gap between Marco and Jeb in South Carolina is less than three points, how many millions of dollars does Team Bush have to spend smearing Rubio in order to finish him off? All my conservative friends, now at each others’ throats in the Trump-Cruz-Rubio fight amongst the current GOP front-runners, seem willing to ignore this nightmare scenario: Jeb emerging from South Carolina with a third-place finish that Team Bush can spin as a miraculous comeback victory. But this sense of dark foreboding has haunted me like Banquo’s ghost.
In fact, there is only ONE candidate who can
guarantee a Republican defeat in November,
and his name is Jeb Bush. @warnerthuston
— JEB DELENDUS EST (@rsmccain) January 31, 2016
If everybody would just concentrate on
DESTROYING BUSH, everything else
will take care of itself. Be calm and defeat Jeb.@warnerthuston
— JEB DELENDUS EST (@rsmccain) January 31, 2016
IOWA: The Smiling Minions of Evil. pic.twitter.com/dOcHBHzF3D
— JEB DELENDUS EST (@rsmccain) January 31, 2016
Operation Evil HQ. #iacaucus pic.twitter.com/xLi0KhhgjH
— JEB DELENDUS EST (@rsmccain) January 31, 2016
Bush must be destroyed — Jeb delendus est — or we are doomed.
Pingback: The Daily Spew for the Discerning Few | MONDAY – FEBRUARY 1, 2016 AHH FEBRUARY – TIRED OF IOWA – AMERICA TURNS TO EUCHRE()
Pingback: Australian Uses ‘Flamethrower’ on Robbers | Regular Right Guy()
Pingback: The Iowa Caucus Is Rape Culture : The Other McCain()