The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

‘Pray Real Hard’

Posted on | November 11, 2011 | 28 Comments

After Monday’s ordeal, I wrote:

If I were in a position to advise Cain at this moment, the only thing I could advise him is to pray.
Pray real hard.

It seemed hopeless at that point. And yet here we are on Friday, and Cain’s still very much alive. So my eyes nearly popped out of my head when I saw this recap of Wednesday’s debate by Grace Wyler at Business Insider:

Herman Cain’s presidential campaign had basically been left for dead when the 2012 Republican presidential candidates took the debate stage in Michigan Wednesday. Sexual harassment accusations had plagued his campaign for nearly two weeks, and his deny-to-the-death strategy was not going as planned.
But divine providence stepped in on Cain’s behalf tonight, in the form of Rick Perry. The Texas Governor’s spectacular meltdown on stage at the debate did what many in the media had believed impossible — divert the spotlight away from the Cain affair and on to the embarrassing shortcomings of a lower-tier candidate, as reporters gleefully hopped off the Cain Train to start writing Perry campaign obits.

“Divine providence”? I hesitate to claim that the Almighty would intervene in a Republican debate, but neither can I rule it out.

Anyway, theological speculation aside, Zilla of the Resistance called my attention to this video from Nerds4Cain:

BTW, some people are making are big deal out of this CBS News poll today, which shows Cain at 18% and Mitt and Newt at 15% each. These results are anomalous, most previous polls having shown Cain and Romney neck-and-neck above 20%, so what’s the deal here?

This poll was conducted by telephone from November 6-10, 2011 among 1,182 adults nationwide. 1,029 interviews were conducted with registered voters and 382 with voters who said they plan to vote in a Republican primary.

In other words, it’s a “random adults” poll and, at least in the CBS News story, you can’t tell whether most of the numbers cited involve GOP primary voters or “random adults.” We cannot therefore cite this one statistical outlier as evidence of a trend.


28 Responses to “‘Pray Real Hard’”

  1. Linda
    November 11th, 2011 @ 9:47 am

    Yeah, there’s never really proof of divine intervention.

    I’m gonna keep on praying though, just the same.  I think the Bible says God likes that kind of thing . . . maybe it’s in the back somewhere.

    You called it Mr. McCain, you really did.

  2. Doug Mataconis
    November 11th, 2011 @ 9:48 am

    My read of the CBS report on the poll makes it clear, to me at least, that the numbers for Cain/Romney/Gingrich are of “people who plan to vote in a Republican Party,” not the wider population of adults that were polled, probably on issues that will be released separately as polling people like to do.

  3. Zilla of the Resistance
    November 11th, 2011 @ 9:49 am

    Sometimes prayers are answered in ways that we may never quite understand.
    I’m glad you liked the video. I think those nerds are onto something. 

  4. smitty
    November 11th, 2011 @ 10:10 am

    I’m not so sure it’s as much Divine Intervention as it is an increasing number of people realizing that Progressivism is just thoroughly jacked up and busted.

  5. Finrod Felagund
    November 11th, 2011 @ 10:14 am

    Yeah, polls of ‘Adults’ are generally worthless– especially when polling Republicans vs Democrats, but they’re not worth much more for primaries.  Republicans and conservatives vote more consistently than Democrats and liberals.

  6. Anonymous
    November 11th, 2011 @ 10:22 am

    The more I think about how Gingrich’s campaign has proceeded, the more this latest poll makes sense as not necessarily an outlier.

    He hasn’t really knocked anything out of the park yet, but neither has he done anything … implosive.

    Nor have any new Gingrich scandals emerged. All of his are well in the past. They’re in the cutout bin, and they’ve long since been pawed over and re-played as much as anyone cares to re-play them.

    He’s pretty much got the “man who’s all about big ideas” niche to himself, and he’s been slowly growing that niche as a primary voting base with his debate performances. All he has to do at the debates is say a few smart things, and smirk with mild condescension when one of the other candidates says something stupid, and voila, he racks up another poll point or two in the subsequent week.

    It probably won’t be enough to get him the nomination, but if he continues not to stomp on his own testicles, it’s almost certainly enough to keep him in contention until he’s an absolute no-brainer for either the veep slot or a plum cabinet post.

  7. ThePaganTemple
    November 11th, 2011 @ 10:46 am

    If that poll proves anything, its that Mitt might not be such a great all-around general election candidate as the establishment likes to tell us he is. That makes sense too. Everybody is pissed at the establishment, whether its the political elites, or Wall Street, and Mitt manages to invoke images of both.

  8. McGehee
    November 11th, 2011 @ 12:01 pm

    Everybody is certainly pissed at Obama, and to some extent those people who are very pissed but not really paying a whole lot of attention may be supporting whichever name they recognize, regardless of what they’ve been hearing about him.

    After all, where do you hear bad stuff about Republicans? From the same media chumps who gave us Obama in the first place.

    I said it before: in the end the Establishment types will be kicking themselves for how this past week has played out.

  9. Joe
    November 11th, 2011 @ 12:30 pm

    Rick Perry could have had a spectacular night, but beyond that Cain’s survival seems more geared to the attacks being without merit (or at least highly questionable) rather than Perry having a brain fart.  I rather doubt made Perry have a mental stutter in the debate. 

    And I do not hold it against Perry.  I think he is an intelligent man.  He is not my first choice, but I would be happy to vote for him for President if he were the nominee.  He just is not a great public speaker.  Unfortunately, that may hurt him.  But I am not holding it against him. 

    I like Herman for holding his own in the debate. 

  10. Joe
    November 11th, 2011 @ 12:30 pm

    I suspect God loves Herman Cain and Rick Perry. 

  11. Joe
    November 11th, 2011 @ 12:34 pm

    I agree.  Herman was on the short lists for Veeps for Romney but that is out unless these accusations are proven completely false.  He either wins it all or he is outsville. 

    We are back where we were.  Romney is the likely nominee.  Herman Cain may the nominee he imporves be able to take it from him, but that is a big if.  I like Herman but I am not sure he can do it (but I hope he does).  Newt is auditioning as Veep for Romney and Cain. 

  12. Charles
    November 11th, 2011 @ 12:37 pm

    Let’s say Romney pulls a primary victory out of the hat. A Newt Gingrich – Joe Biden debate would be great, but not as much fun as seeing Herman Cain take on the original high-tech lyncher. Although, for pure entainment possibilities, a Perry-Biden debate could be a surprising lot of fun too.

  13. Anonymous
    November 11th, 2011 @ 12:46 pm

    Actually God is probably at least OK with Obama, of course that’s no reason we should be.

  14. Anonymous
    November 11th, 2011 @ 12:46 pm

    Long way to go on that front.

  15. Adjoran
    November 11th, 2011 @ 2:04 pm

    I started writing a country song that somewhat applies, although it was supposed to be about an ex:  “Jesus Loves You, But I Ain’t Him.”

  16. Adjoran
    November 11th, 2011 @ 2:16 pm

    I generally give CBS polls the same credibility I accord CBS News – which is to say, none.  Look at the numbers.

    1182 random adults, of whom 1029 are registered voters.  That’s over 87%, when even after the massive voter fraud registration drive from the Democrats in 2008, less than 75% of eligible adults are registered.  So something is off from the start.

    The small subset of Republican primary voters is still larger than the percentage of total eligible voters who will actually participate, but the +/- 5% MOE means their result is a dead heat between Cain, Romney, Gingrich, and Undecided.  Which means it is still anybody’s race – which we all already knew.

    Thanks, CBS! 

  17. Anonymous
    November 11th, 2011 @ 2:17 pm

    There’s a video of VDH and Roger Simon wherein VDH questions why Mitt’s conservative bona fides are disputed now when in 08 he was touted as a conservative alternative to the squishy McCain. He further opines that Obama may not see any downside politically to going after Iran.

  18. ThePaganTemple
    November 11th, 2011 @ 2:41 pm

    If I were Mahmoud Ahmadinejahd, I’d find a nice bunker to hunker down in about two months before the election and I wouldn’t stick my head out of it until after it was over.

  19. ThePaganTemple
    November 11th, 2011 @ 2:44 pm

    That makes sense though this early in the process, when most people clearly haven’t been paying that much attention. And they won’t really start paying that much attention until after Iowa, maybe long after.

  20. Bob Belvedere
    November 11th, 2011 @ 4:35 pm

    Are you going to believe Obama, or your lying eyes?

  21. FenelonSpoke
    November 11th, 2011 @ 5:17 pm

    Loved the “Nerds For Cain” video; Thanks.

  22. Bob Belvedere
    November 11th, 2011 @ 5:33 pm

    This is a brief affair, just enough to tide one over until the next gal comes around.

  23. Linda
    November 11th, 2011 @ 5:55 pm

    oh goodness, I wasn’t trying to say God made Rick Perry stall in the debate.  I just mean that, generally speaking, maybe divine intervention has prevented the left’s smear of Cain from being successful.

    and shoot, Rick Perry debates better than I do, so he’s got that goin’ for him at least.  I’m a deer in headlights.

  24. Anonymous
    November 11th, 2011 @ 9:31 pm

    Well, of course. I fully expect Callista to be history just as soon as the matter of whether Newt is moving into the White House, the Naval Observatory, or neither is settled.

    He just can’t help it. I’m pretty sure there’s some universal law of convergence that eventually puts Newt together with Lindsay Lohan, if I don’t get to her first.

  25. ThePaganTemple
    November 11th, 2011 @ 11:32 pm

    Lindsey is more Blow Job Billy’s type. Or Hillary’s.

  26. Dave
    November 12th, 2011 @ 2:26 am

    I’ve never seen an inchworm wipe before. Interesting.

  27. McGehee
    November 12th, 2011 @ 10:28 am

    VDH questions why Mitt’s conservative bona fides are disputed now when in 08 he was touted as a conservative alternative to the squishy McCain.

    The answer to that, in a nutshell, is Sarah Palin.

    Whatever else people can say about her, she’s given conservatives a focus for their ideas much as Reagan did. That effect almost certainly fed into the inspiration that led to the Tea Party movement, I think.

  28. Anonymous
    November 12th, 2011 @ 12:09 pm

    George W, No child left behind, caving to the SDs by creating the behemoth Homeland Security etc the whole decade of the aughts certainly lowered the bar for what was supposed to be a conservative.
    Interestingly VDH is a “conservative democrat” which once again lowers the bar on conservatism.