The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler


Posted on | March 6, 2012 | 34 Comments

by Smitty


State Delegates Closing EST Pri./Cauc. Called
Georgia 76 7:00 pm P Newt
Vermont 17 7:00 pm P Mitt
Virginia 46 7:00 pm P Mitt
Ohio 63 7:30 pm P Rick?
Massachusetts 38 8:00 pm P Mitt
Tennessee 55 8:00 pm P Rick
Oklahoma 40 8:00 pm P Rick
North Dakota 25 9:00 pm C Rick?
Idaho 32 9:00 pm C Mitt?
Alaska 24 Midnight C

An additional 21 RNC superdelegates from the states are not bound by the voting result.

10:55 EST  As I’m about to get some rest, Santorum clings to a ~2,500 vote margin. However, the message here is this: Americans love an underdog. Rick Santorum’s clear, genuine communication hearkens back to George W. Bush’s unfeigned character. Just about everything Romney has said thus far this campaign has seemed feigned. Maybe fellow Mormon Glenn Beck could give Mitt some authenticity lessons.

 10:10 EST Karl Rove won’t let Fox call Ohio for Santorum, due to large counties that are not fully in. Santorum has a 12K buffer. Anticipate Romney to close, but not clear he’ll close enough.

10:07 EST Gov. Palin on Fox. She points out that Romney’s just not generating voter enthusiasm. However, conservatives are going to fall in behind the nominee. Gingrich is welcome, according to Palin. Competition is good. “Boo hoo” on those arguing for less competition, she says. It doesn’t make sense for anyone to drop out, she thinks.

9:45 EST Mrs. Romney speaking on Fox. She has three dimensions, compared to Mitt’s two.

9:42 EST Stacy called. Santorum saw campaign manager Mike Biundo right after Santorum’s speech ended. Told Mike that Stacy was watching totals. Lead grew from 5k to 15k over the course of the speech. Stacy says “I think you’ve got this locked. Did you see my column today?” Biundo: “Yes, I did.”

9:32 EST Santorum on Fox. Santorum just said that Romney is not truthful with the American public on the Romney health care record. Ouch.

9:29 EST Santorum on Fox. Talking the bottom-up version of economy favored by conservatives, vs. the top-down model of Obama. Sounding nearly libertarian, he is.

9:25 EST Santorum on Fox. On about Federal dependency. Liberty. Santorum speaks it.

9:22 EST Santorum on Fox. Allows that Ohio is still too close to call. But at least he’s chipper at the moment.

9:21 EST Santorum on Fox.Touting his wife’s vast acumen.

9:19 EST Santorum on Fox. Introducing clan. “This campaign is about the towns that have been left behind and the families who made those towns great.”

9:17 EST Santorum on Fox. Fresh from war-room/high school weight room. Sounding populist note on being among his roots.

9:16 EST Rove sounds a note of caution, as the biggest counties in Ohio have only reported the absentee ballots, not their final counts.

9:12 EST Fox has Santorum by 3% in Ohio. Keep going.

9:03 EST Google has Santorum up in Ohio by an eyelash. I predict at least three more flips of leader.

8:53 EST Newt Gingrich makes the cogent point on Fox that you can’t expect to outspend an incumbent President by 5-to-1 on negative ads.

8:42 EST Don Surber calls it ‘Super Snoozeday‘. Come on, man: pretend like this is interesting.

8:38 EST Laura Ingram on Fox just made the astute point that Santorum and Gingrich are canceling each other out. Tennessee called for Santorum.

8:25 EST Rove on Fox floats the point that second place is significant in states where the delegates are proportional. What of Newt Gingrich?
VT 4th, 7.9%
VA no run, 0%
MA 4th, 4%
OK 3rd, 22.8%

8:21 EST Exit polling in Ohio, per Fox News, shows Santorum picking up Tea Partiers, Independents and Evangelicals. Romney has double digits with single women.

8:05 EST Romney got nearly 60% in VA, mocking my sad little protest vote.

8:00 EST Fox calls OK for Rick Santorum.

7:51 EST Stacy reports from Steubenville, Ohio, the hometown of Dean Martin, at the Santorum event, where he just interviewed Santorum aide John Brabender. Brabender said that the Romney campaign’s “worst nightmare” is for the campaign to come down to a Santorum-Romney match. He spoke of an “enthusiasm gap” with Romney, who has outspent Santorum 6-to-1 in advertising in Ohio, and yet Romney will count himself lucky to win narrowly in Ohio. Brabender said it is important not only to look at who wins, but who places second. He suggested that outside of Georgia, Gingrich is unlikely to win anywhere else tonight, and will place third in many states. They are playing Dean Martin’s music in the gym.

7:41 EST Fox News has Ron Paul in North Dakota leading an End the Fed cheer from an hour ago.

7:36 EST FiverThirtyEight is confident on GA, VA, And MA. Fox corroborates. Ohio too close to call. Memorandum links The Hill with BHO telling Mitt ‘Good luck tonight‘ during his campaign speechpress conference today.



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  3. AnonymousDrivel
    March 6th, 2012 @ 9:00 pm

    Who’s winning the slut vote?

    And I denounce myself.

  4. smitty
    March 6th, 2012 @ 9:03 pm

    An interesting question. Are ‘sluts’ ones attracted to that negative-advertising sort of guy?

  5. Evi L. Bloggerlady
    March 6th, 2012 @ 9:03 pm

    Me.  I am a shameless blog whore.   And I am linking The Other McCain again!  

  6. Evi L. Bloggerlady
    March 6th, 2012 @ 9:03 pm

    Bob will not take the title this week.  I think I am around eight links now since Sunday.  

  7. richard mcenroe
    March 6th, 2012 @ 9:06 pm

     Can’t wait for THAT Romney ad: “I’m Sarah Fluke and I endorse this message…”

  8. richard mcenroe
    March 6th, 2012 @ 9:07 pm

     Hey it is my intention henceforth to refer to Janet Napolitano as “security slut”…

  9. AnonymousDrivel
    March 6th, 2012 @ 9:13 pm

    Is Sir Flip Flopsalot handing out condoms and IUDs? I don’t think he or his PAC would stoop that low… yet.

  10. AnonymousDrivel
    March 6th, 2012 @ 9:39 pm

    Santorum sounded pretty good. I’d say he’s having a very good – and not just competitive – night.

  11. EBL
    March 6th, 2012 @ 9:59 pm

    Big night for Rick. Ohio is huge.

  12. Mike Rogers
    March 6th, 2012 @ 10:11 pm

    Yes. The world’s second oldest profession bears a striking resemblance to the oldest, and Romney has the money, as well as some surprising (bought) supporters.
    And he STILL can’t close the deal with the public.

  13. Dianna Deeley
    March 6th, 2012 @ 10:12 pm

    I must congratulate Stacy – three months ago, who would have guessed Santorum would be winning primaries on Super Tuesday?

    My lack of enthusiasm for Rick Santorum is not detracting in any way from my admiration for what The Other McCain has accomplished.

  14. Mike Rogers
    March 6th, 2012 @ 10:12 pm

    I stick my neck out and predict that Santorum will win OH by a nose, and grab ND while he’s at it.
    If he’s really lucky, he may grab 5 states, but I’ll settle for 4.

  15. Dianna Deeley
    March 6th, 2012 @ 10:13 pm

    Dunno. I think, for a lefty, a “slut” is any female who 1) doesn’t agree with you; or 2) leaves with someone else.

  16. Zilla of the Resistance
    March 6th, 2012 @ 10:26 pm

     Well done! How many TOM links have you done this week? Make sure you tell the Great Wombat about all of them by Friday.

    Better to be a blog whore than a leftist whore like that slutty whore Sandra “occupy my vagina and tell taxpayers to pay for my prophylactics” Fluke!

  17. Zilla of the Resistance
    March 6th, 2012 @ 10:28 pm

     Ah, you just answered my question. Keep it up, EBL!

     (BTW it’s good luck to link to me, so says the little leprechaun who lives in my closet.)

  18. Jeff S.
    March 6th, 2012 @ 10:32 pm

    It’s now 3 hours after the polls closed in Ohio.  There’s a third of the vote either not counted or not reported.  I’ve always wondered:  how stupid do the poll workers have to be not to have their precinct counted within two or three hours of the close?

  19. DaveO
    March 6th, 2012 @ 10:47 pm

    Heard tale Obama wished Romney success.

    Is this the end of the Obama Curse? Or Romney’s campaign?

  20. Bob Belvedere
    March 6th, 2012 @ 11:19 pm


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  23. Adjoran
    March 6th, 2012 @ 11:56 pm

    Romney now leads as the larger counties report in, but it appears his margin of victory will be no more than the combined Perry/Huntsman vote.  The main value of a victory to Romney (who was almost certain to win the most delegates because Santorum filed incomplete slates) is to deprive Santorum of the bragging rights for what would have been a very strong night for him with a 4th win.

    Still, it seems Santorum has shown himself to be the only one who can go  head to head with Romney consistently.  Gingrich’s “path to the nomination” involves winning Texas and a bunch of other winner-take-all states later in the race, when he has only won his home state and next-door neighbor so far.

    Gingrich should get out and let them play it out.  He’s not going to be the nominee and never was and he knew it from the beginning, but the taste of victory in SC awakened his big ego and now he can’t let go of the fantasy. 

  24. Evi L. Bloggerlady
    March 6th, 2012 @ 11:58 pm

    How about Dan Rather declaring Ohio is higher than Lady Gaga’s skirt!

  25. Michael Swartz
    March 7th, 2012 @ 12:16 am

    This is a purely anecdotal tale but it has been my experience that larger counties in Ohio report from the inside out, with urban areas coming in before rural ones. As a Republican I always figured that if our side was better than 40-60 with 30% in for a countywide race we had a fighting chance because the outer precincts were more conservative and Republican.

    So when I look at the areas which are out, there’s still some hope Santorum pulls it off. 

    As I write this, Mitt is up in seven of the eight counties left to finish: Cuyahoga (Cleveland), Delaware (north of Columbus), Franklin (Columbus), Medina (just southwest of Cleveland), Montgomery (Dayton), Stark (Canton), and Trumball (just outside Youngstown). Santorum is up big in Brown County, just east of Cincinnati. All but Brown and Cuyahoga are sort of close, but we’re looking at overall picture anyway and not by county.

    My theory is borne out in the fact that Lucas County (Toledo, where I am from) had Romney in the lead until the last 10% of the vote was counted – but Santorum ended up carrying the county by 1%, 38-37.

    It probably won’t make a difference in delegates, but I think we are essentially looking at a two-man race. Newt might be seeing the writing on the wall now.

  26. Michael Swartz
    March 7th, 2012 @ 12:34 am

    Looks like some of the counties tightened up a bit but not enough. Romney’s up 12k and I don’t think there’s enough left to count.

  27. Rick
    March 7th, 2012 @ 12:39 am

    Kinda disappointed that the blog closed up shop so early on Super Tuesday…I need McCain to help me with my grief over Ohio going for Romney! 

  28. Adjoran
    March 7th, 2012 @ 12:46 am

    Fox News is now calling Ohio for Romney.  He will apparently win more delegates tonight than everyone else combined.

    Santorum must drive Gingrich out of the race quickly to have any chance to come back.  He had done well toe-to-toe with Romney, but can’t overcome the organizational advantages with Gingrich in the picture.  He needs to get down to Alabama and Mississippi and take them both.  Forget Illinois; he’s only on 14 of 18 CD ballots there, too, and you can’t fight everywhere.  At this point fighting Romney is beside the point:  it won’t matter if Gingrich stays in.  He has to beat Newt in both Southern states and force him out now, or Romney just wins by attrition.

  29. Rich Vail
    March 7th, 2012 @ 6:56 am

    I think you’re incorrect in your summation.  It’s not so much that Americans like an underdog…but that the GOP base is NOT enamoured of Mitt Romney.  That’s been clear since the beginning last summer.

    Every few weeks, a new ‘front runner’ has emerged, who wasn’t Mitt.  Now, we have the last men standing, none of whom is really liked by the GOP base. Santorum is a weak candidate in a field of weak candidates.   Many people with whom I’ve been chatting back and forth across the country are now hoping for a brokered convention so that we can dump these idiots and bring in someone who is both a strong candidate, and NOT Mitt.

    Rich  Vail
    Pikesville, Maryland

  30. Mike Rogers
    March 7th, 2012 @ 7:40 am

    Oh well…
    ND was a good margin, but those urban areas of OH finally added up to a narrow victory for Mittens – must be those low quality urban schools. Close, but someone ran off with the cigar – was it Bill Clinton?

  31. SDN
    March 7th, 2012 @ 8:24 am

    The initials would fit right in with the snazzy black uniform and jackboots…

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