The Other McCain

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They’re Calling It the ‘Kamala Crash’

Posted on | August 5, 2024 | Comments Off on They’re Calling It the ‘Kamala Crash’

Stocks tanked today, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) falling more than a thousand points (down 2.6%) while both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ recorded their worst days since September 2022. There is no reason to panic over this one-day loss, of course, since the long-term trend is still upward, no matter the short-term hit to your 401(k) account.

It’s being called the “Kamala crash” because one of the things that may have triggered the sell-off was that investors believe there is an increased likelihood of Kamala Harris becoming the next president. To help explain what’s going on here, look at these charts:

On June 27, the DJIA closed at 39,164.06. That evening, however, Joe Biden suffered a catastrophic debate performance and within a few days, the markets started surging. About two weeks later, it broke 40,000 for the first time in history, and on July 17 reached a peak of 41,198.08, having gained 2,034.02 points (+5.2%) in three weeks.

Of course, many things can affect the stock markets, but it’s hard to avoid the obvious interpretation here: As the polls began showing Joe Biden losing ground in the election, confidence rose as investors believed that Trump was likely to be the next president, bringing a pro-business policy agenda back to the White House. In the 10 days after Biden announced he would quit his reelection bid, the Dow dipped, then climbed again, but the media was busy cranking out a lot of pro-Kamala hype, and doubts began to shadow the market. By last week, Democrats had circled the wagons and organized a “virtual roll call” to officially anoint Harris as their nominee, and the bottom has now fallen out of the market, with the DJIA losing a total of 2,494.81 points (-6.1%) since its July 17 peak.

Maybe the stock markets are right. Maybe the chances of Kamala Harris getting elected have increased in the past two weeks. On the other hand, she’s never been really popular with voters, her 2020 campaign was a flop, and I see no reason to believe that she’s learned anything from that experience. Harris is a bad candidate, and once this “honeymoon” phase is over, I expect America to reject her. We can then look forward to a new economic boom beginning on Wednesday, November 6.



 

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Category: Economics, Kamala Harris

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