The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

Why Michelle Todd Will Never Work
for a Republican Campaign Again

Posted on | May 13, 2010 | 26 Comments

OK, so who the heck is Michelle Todd? Her name popped up in this story about Charlie Crist:

Gov. Charlie Crist told MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough on April 30 that he would “probably” give refunds to donors who don’t approve of him leaving the GOP. . . .
No more. . . . [C]ampaign spokeswoman Michelle Todd said there will be no refunds. Asked whether that amounts to a flip-flop, she said, “We have never made an official statement before. It is now the official statement. They donated to the Charlie Crist for U.S. Senate Campaign, and it’s still the Charlie Crist for U.S. Senate Campaign.”

Republicans have now written down her name on their persona non grata list. Michelle Todd is henceforth an un-person to the GOP, and everybody else who does one day’s work for the Crist campaign will find their names on the same list.

One of the reasons Charlie Crist thought he could get away with this betrayal was his erroneous supposition that he could hire competent campaign staff to replace those who resigned en masse when he announced he would run as an independent.

Knowing a thing or two about how these things work, however, I explained on Ladd Ehlinger’s radio show this week that Crist would have extreme difficulty finding staff because (a) he’s doomed to defeat, and (b) any Republican operative who hires on with a Crist independent campaign will be committing career suicide.

Some conservatives have been freaked out by polls showing Crist leading a three-way race, evidently forgetting that, a year ago, the same polls showed Marco Rubio trailing Crist by 30 points in the GOP primary. There are four basic reasons Crist is doomed to defeat:

  • Crist will get no more Republican money. Fundraising is crucial to politics, and there are no direct-mail lists of “raging moderates” who will donate to an independent Crist campaign. It was estimated in late April that Crist quit the GOP race with $6 million cash-on-hand. Based on his previous “burn rate,” he’s unlikely to have half that amount remaining by Labor Day. Florida is a large state where running TV ads statewide (from Miami to Orlando to Jacksonville to Pensacola) is very expensive. Crist will get buried under an avalanche of TV ads in September and October.
  • Crist has no campaign “ground game” infrastructure. Who will be county chairmen and precinct captains for Crist? Where will he find volunteers to staff local offices, working the phones and handing out yard signs? Crist must build a campaign apparatus from scratch, while Rubio will have the well-established election machinery of the Republican Party working for him. As Rubio’s senior advisors said in a memo last month, “Florida’s county GOP offices are some of the most organized and sophisticated in the country . . . Crist will be starting from scratch to recruit, organize and mobilize volunteers for his campaign, whereas both Marco and [Democratic candidate Kendrick] Meek will have built-in volunteer networks to draw from.”
  • Nobody trusts a traitor. And nobody respects a quitter, as Arlen Specter is belatedly learning. Like Specter’s switch to the Democrats, Crist’s decision to go independent was pure selfishness. Crist had expected his handpicked state GOP chairman Jim Greer to deliver the Senate nomination on a silver platter, and when that didn’t happen, Crist decided to take his ball and go home. Think of how that lends itself to a devastating 30-second TV ad.
  • Rubio will win the debates. For nearly a year, Crist avoided debating Rubio. Once they finally met in a debate — March 28 on “Fox News Sunday” — it was obvious why, and Crist quit the GOP primary less than a month later. At some point this fall, Crist will have to share a debate stage with Rubio and the Democrat, Meek. Charlie will lose that debate, too, for the simple reason that there is no persuasive political rationale for Crist’s candidacy. If Florida voters want an Obama-hugging, stimulus-endorsing, liberal stooge for Harry Reid, they’ll support Kendrick Meek.

Crist is doomed and, after Nov. 2, Crist’s campaign staffers like Michelle Todd are going to find themselves not merely unemployed, but unemployable.

MARCO RUBIO FOR U.S. SENATE

Comments

  • http://www.constantconservative.com Michael (Constant Conservative

    Well put. Many politicians run from selfish reasons but are able to hide that selfishness behind a veneer of “helping the people.” Gov. Crist has effectively broken through that veneer by his recent actions.

    May his words and actions prove instructive to voters across this country as we examine each person who would desire to represent us.

  • http://www.constantconservative.com Michael (Constant Conservative

    Well put. Many politicians run from selfish reasons but are able to hide that selfishness behind a veneer of “helping the people.” Gov. Crist has effectively broken through that veneer by his recent actions.

    May his words and actions prove instructive to voters across this country as we examine each person who would desire to represent us.

  • http://www.constantconservative.com Michael (Constant Conservative)

    Well put. Many politicians run from selfish reasons but are able to hide that selfishness behind a veneer of “helping the people.” Gov. Crist has effectively broken through that veneer by his recent actions.

    May his words and actions prove instructive to voters across this country as we examine each person who would desire to represent us.

  • molonlabe28

    I hope that the voters of Texas hold John Cornyn accountable when he next appears on the ballot.

    His GOP cash contributions and man crush on Crist look appallingly stupid at this point.

    The GOP needs someone who is much more politically principled and astute than Cornyn running the NRSC.

    Ditto for the RNC and Mike Steele.

  • molonlabe28

    I hope that the voters of Texas hold John Cornyn accountable when he next appears on the ballot.

    His GOP cash contributions and man crush on Crist look appallingly stupid at this point.

    The GOP needs someone who is much more politically principled and astute than Cornyn running the NRSC.

    Ditto for the RNC and Mike Steele.

  • molonlabe28

    I hope that the voters of Texas hold John Cornyn accountable when he next appears on the ballot.

    His GOP cash contributions and man crush on Crist look appallingly stupid at this point.

    The GOP needs someone who is much more politically principled and astute than Cornyn running the NRSC.

    Ditto for the RNC and Mike Steele.

  • http://keaneobservation.blogspot.com/ Largebill

    Stacey,

    Sadly, I doubt that people will remember the fools who work on Crist’s campaign. I expect Crist to lose, but what happens if Obama pushes Meeks to drop out of the race as has been rumored?

    Molonlabe,

    It seems that each senator selected to run the NRSC gets sold this idea of electability and endorse/fund based on which candidate is more moderate. It is hogwash. The way they define moderate is someone who doesn’t believe in conservative principals. Never donate to the national apparatus!

  • http://keaneobservation.blogspot.com/ Largebill

    Stacey,

    Sadly, I doubt that people will remember the fools who work on Crist’s campaign. I expect Crist to lose, but what happens if Obama pushes Meeks to drop out of the race as has been rumored?

    Molonlabe,

    It seems that each senator selected to run the NRSC gets sold this idea of electability and endorse/fund based on which candidate is more moderate. It is hogwash. The way they define moderate is someone who doesn’t believe in conservative principals. Never donate to the national apparatus!

  • http://keaneobservation.blogspot.com/ Largebill

    Stacey,

    Sadly, I doubt that people will remember the fools who work on Crist’s campaign. I expect Crist to lose, but what happens if Obama pushes Meeks to drop out of the race as has been rumored?

    Molonlabe,

    It seems that each senator selected to run the NRSC gets sold this idea of electability and endorse/fund based on which candidate is more moderate. It is hogwash. The way they define moderate is someone who doesn’t believe in conservative principals. Never donate to the national apparatus!

  • http://keaneobservation.blogspot.com/ Largebill

    Oops. That first paragraph was addressed to Stacy not Stacey. Sorry, thought I fixed that.

  • http://keaneobservation.blogspot.com/ Largebill

    Oops. That first paragraph was addressed to Stacy not Stacey. Sorry, thought I fixed that.

  • http://keaneobservation.blogspot.com/ Largebill

    Oops. That first paragraph was addressed to Stacy not Stacey. Sorry, thought I fixed that.

  • http://threebeerslater.blogspot.com richard mcenroe

    Stacy, exactly.
    Here in California Meg Whitman has blown a 50-point lead in the polls by relying on a saturation campaign of TV attack ads that people are sick of, and developing little or no ground game to go with them in terms of street crew and personal appearances. Steve Poizner has picked up that same deficit with vigorous groundwork and a willingness to face the voters and answer questions.

  • http://threebeerslater.blogspot.com richard mcenroe

    Stacy, exactly.
    Here in California Meg Whitman has blown a 50-point lead in the polls by relying on a saturation campaign of TV attack ads that people are sick of, and developing little or no ground game to go with them in terms of street crew and personal appearances. Steve Poizner has picked up that same deficit with vigorous groundwork and a willingness to face the voters and answer questions.

  • http://threebeerslater.blogspot.com richard mcenroe

    Stacy, exactly.
    Here in California Meg Whitman has blown a 50-point lead in the polls by relying on a saturation campaign of TV attack ads that people are sick of, and developing little or no ground game to go with them in terms of street crew and personal appearances. Steve Poizner has picked up that same deficit with vigorous groundwork and a willingness to face the voters and answer questions.

  • Joe

    She is dead to me.

  • Joe

    She is dead to me.

  • http://thecampofthesaints.wordpress.com Bob Belvedere

    A RINO will hire her.

  • http://thecampofthesaints.wordpress.com Bob Belvedere

    A RINO will hire her.

  • Pingback: Right-Wing Links (May 13, 2010)()

  • http://freealabamastan.blogspot.com Paul A’Barge

    Want to see Michelle Todd? Here you go:
    http://www.linkedin.com/pub/michelle-todd/4/718/758

    If you have an upgraded LinkedIn account you can send her InMail.

  • http://freealabamastan.blogspot.com Paul A’Barge

    Want to see Michelle Todd? Here you go:
    http://www.linkedin.com/pub/michelle-todd/4/718/758

    If you have an upgraded LinkedIn account you can send her InMail.

  • http://www.jonesfamily.us/politics Ron Jones

    Back when Crist & Rubio appeared opposite one another on Fox News….I spent just 10 minutes watching Marco Rubio mop the floor with Charlie Crist, then an image popped into my head.

    Remember the line from MIB II with Will Smith & Tommy Lee Jones:

    “New hotness…Old and busted”

    That’s Rubio & Crist.

  • http://www.jonesfamily.us/politics Ron Jones

    Back when Crist & Rubio appeared opposite one another on Fox News….I spent just 10 minutes watching Marco Rubio mop the floor with Charlie Crist, then an image popped into my head.

    Remember the line from MIB II with Will Smith & Tommy Lee Jones:

    “New hotness…Old and busted”

    That’s Rubio & Crist.

  • Oxbay

    You write: “…nobody respects a quitter…”. Here’s the uncomfortable question. No matter the circumstances does this axiom apply to Sarah Palin?

  • Oxbay

    You write: “…nobody respects a quitter…”. Here’s the uncomfortable question. No matter the circumstances does this axiom apply to Sarah Palin?