The Other McCain

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HOLY COW! Republican AZ-7 Challenger McClung Now in ‘Dead Heat’ with Grijalva

Posted on | October 10, 2010 | 30 Comments

BOSTON — Just got back from Sean Bielat headquarters, where one volunteer said she’s starting to sense a “Scott Brown feeling” about the campaign against Barney Frank. Logged onto my e-mail and saw a tip to a Politico article about a race on the other side of the country:

Add Rep. Raul Grijalva to the growing list of Democratic worries this election season.
Party operatives say there’s increasing concern that the Arizona Democrat’s reelection bid could turn into a “sleeper” race for Republicans after Grijalva — responding to enactment of a tough new immigration law — called for an economic boycott of his own state amid a housing crisis and record unemployment.
Four Democratic sources from different parts of the country said that there is new attention to a race that was long considered in the bag.
And a recent poll, obtained by POLITICO, found that Grijalva and Republican challenger Ruth McClung, a real-life rocket scientist, were in a dead heat, even though Washington prognosticators have declared the deep-blue seat safely Democratic.
As they work to buttress their majority against a coming Republican storm, Democrats can ill afford to spend time or resources defending incumbents in seats where they should have a clear advantage. But the Grijalva seat potentially being in play is a sign of the increasingly expanding Republican playing field for the midterm elections. . . .

Read the whole thing. Folks, I cannot begin to explain how huge this is. The headline might as well be, In hoc signo vinces.

A couple weeks ago, when I first blogged about Ruth McClung’s campaign in AZ-7, it was basically as favor to an Arizona friend. Here was an excellent candidate running a g0od grassroots campaign and, as always, I love a scrappy underdog. Grijalva’s stupidity in calling for a boycott of his own state was so remarkable as to deserve another mention.

There was a chance for an against-the-odds upset but, honestly, I never expected to see a poll three weeks before Election Day showing a dead heat in AZ-7. Look at the data: Grijalva’s negatives are 47% against a positive of 39%, while Grijalva’s “deserves re-election” number is a mere 36% against 50% for “give new person a chance.” This is an incumbent in serious trouble.

To have these kind of results, when McClung reported a mere $16,000 cash on hand in early August — incredible!

Go give Ruth McClung $20 — do it now — but then come back while I tell you what this one poll, in one deep-blue district, means for the larger picture Nov. 2.

Three words: BIG RED WAVE.

Progressive pollster Nate Silver notes that an “uprecendented number” of House seats (87 in all) are now rated as competitive by the Cook Political Report — and AZ-7 isn’t even on Charlie Cook’s radar! So if a poll shows a “safe” Democrat in serious trouble against an underfunded challenger the “experts” haven’t even noticed, what percentage of those “competitive” Democratic seats will go Republican?

And how many more allegedly “safe” Democrats are actually in danger?

That’s the big story here. Barney Frank’s MA-4 seat isn’t on Charlie Cook’s radar, either, but Sean Bielat clearly has Barney on the defensive here. The only Massachusetts seats ranked by Cook are the open MA-10 seat (“leans Democrat,” with a no-name Democrat against Republican Jeff Perry) and MA-5 (“likely Democrat” with Republican Jon Golnik challenging Niki Tsongas).

If Bielat can beat Barney — and Barney seems to be sweating it now — then those Perry and Golnik will also be riding that Big Red Wave, here in Massachusetts where “Downtown Scotty Brown” already proved the Democrats can be beat. Just last night, thanks to my friend Pete Da Tech Guy, I interviewed three candidates — Bill Gunn in MA-1, Tom Wesley in MA-2, Marty Lamb in MA-3  — all of whom are running hard in districts that Scott Brown won in January.

If that Big Red Wave hits on Nov. 2, there are no “safe” Democrats. Ray McKinney could beat John Barrow in GA-12, Joel Demos could beat Keith Ellison in MN-5, Charles Lollar could beat Steny Hoyer in MD-5, John Dennis could beat Nancy Pelosi in CA-8.

Ace of Spades HQ points out that everyone can volunteer to make get-out-the-vote calls. But you can do a lot more than that. There are competitive races in every state and there are lots of “safe” Democrats who have scrappy grassroots underdog Republican challengers who might win, if they can catch a break or two. (Look at MA-6, where John Tierney was “safe” until his “Married to the Mob” scandal broke.) Find a Republican challenger near you, and volunteer to help their campaign. Or if you can’t do that, try to give $20 or $50 to a good candidate.

Back during the NY-23 campaign last year, I wrote a Hot Air Green Room post called, “Memo to the Grassroots: Stop Asking What You Can Do, and Start Doing What You Can.”

That’s the kind of balls-to-the-wall effort it will take to make that Big Red Wave come crashing ashore Nov. 2.

The GOP needs to pick up 40 seats to take the Speaker’s gavel away from Nancy Pelosi. But why stop at 40? Why not 50, 60, 70, 80? Why not push it to the max and hand Obama, Pelosi and Reid the biggest mid-term wipeout in American political history?

That Big Red Wave is you. Make it happen.

UPDATE: Just got off the phone with Sean Bielat. We only talked about 10 minutes. Then he had to go build more fuckin’ robots.

UPDATE II: Ace likes rocket science almost as much as he likes robots. Also, check the Memeorandum thread.

UPDATE III: Welcome, Instapundit readers! If you’ve got any money left over after you contribute to these outstanding Republican challengers, don’t hesitate to toss a few shekels in the old tip jar.

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Category: Arizona, Congress, Election, Massachusetts

Comments

  • http://912member.blogspot.com just a conservative girl

    Lollar’s race was brought up at the Tea Party Convention. I hope that means he gets some money in the next few days.

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  • http://twitter.com/cybrludite Cybrludite

    Seeing as it’s Arizona, I have to say it… “At least it’s a dead heat!”

  • http://twitter.com/conservagirl conservagirl

    I hashtag my pro-Sean Bielat tweets with #mamiracle2 :)

  • http://twitter.com/conservagirl conservagirl

    In order for us to ROLL the Dems in the House, these dedicated candidates, (many putting regular jobs on hold) NEED DONATIONS IN ANY AMOUNT! Sean’s moneybomb this weekend is byebyebarney.org .If you want to BOOT BARNEY, please donate.

  • HLeeC

    We fired a warning shot in January in MA and it was ignored. Now we are sending in the Marines to unseat Barney Frank and take back the Hill.

    Besides all the many reasons Barney Frank needs to be removed from office, Sean Bielat represents the real hope and change this country needs to correct the trajectory of the country going forward. He is smart, energetic and an independent thinker who will work to restore fiscal responsibility and limited government.

    We in his district are working to correct the course of the country by retiring Barney Frank and electing Sean Bielat. If you would like to join the fight please:

    Donate any amount @ http://byebyebarney.org/

  • imsickofit

    I can’t wait until Barney is “retired.” He has caused quit a mess for our whole country. http://www.byebyebarney.org

  • Raul Grijalva

    I am very honored to be nominated as the dumbest member of congress. That takes more than luck. I have worked hard for that.

  • Shrinkdad01

    Wow – awesome, hopeful article! Yes folks, it’s totally time! Please send Sean Bielat a donation right now – BYEBYEBARNEY.ORG

  • Jbell

    Hey Mr. McCain, please do a story on Teri Newman (R) running against Jerry Costello in So. Illinois district 12. She’s another solid conservative that needs to get the word out. She’s not run any TV ads and could use all the support she can get right now. Thanks.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_EJIQY7MPOUPHMNDNHZLF3XFWJ4 shrinkdad01

    Wow – what a hopeful article. Thanks for this! Come on America, it’s time for new leadership all over. My favorite candidate? Sean Bielat. He’s surging in MA and we have the first real chance in decades to retire Barney Frank. Please, send $10 now. It’s the only way we can win. BYEBYEBARNEY.ORG

  • Henry

    Raul Grijalva HAS GOT TO GO. He’d make Arizona part of Mexico if he could. Bye-bye you big fat jerk.

  • Pingback: Arizona District 7 Is Now In-Play - Grijalva May Lose to McClung - - Conservative Daily News

  • ck

    Hey, you got a link from Glen, things are looking up. That’s better than a link from Allahpundit.

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/EU5DQWQTTHTPO4A4ZYSL3AAV2U Adjoran

    I would have preferred Grijalva get the boot for being an avowed socialist, or his racist background or his anti-American views on sovereignty in the southwest, but I’ll take what I can get.

    It shouldn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out supporting a boycott against your own people is a stupid idea – but we have one, anyway!

  • Pingback: GayPatriot » How big a wave? (A lot depends on enthusiasm*)

  • lucchesi

    Voters are starting to firm up in their opinions, and they’re breaking Right in every race. That’s why you saw Obama grasping at straws with his ill-considered, now ‘clarified’ attacks on the Chamber of Commerce and Karl Rove. The Democrats aren’t trying to get the base up to save their majority. They’re trying to get their base up to avoid decimation. It’s too little too late. Durbin and Schumer are probably sitting around thanking their lucky stars more Senate seats aren’t up for election this year.

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  • Kyla

    what about John Faulk’s chances against Sheila Jackson Lee? Please donate at FaulkforCongress.com

  • http://www.facebook.com/roy.jerman Roy Jerman

    Frank chooses to (and I quote) “roll the dice” on more high risk mortgages, and WE all crap out. He’s got to go. http://www.byebyebarney.org

  • kc

    “Stupidest Grijalva doofus vs. glamorous rocket scientist in sleeper race” Not the same level of playing field at all on all fronts.
    McClung connects well with folk ordinaire in Arizona with her well-articulated fiscon and socon platform and border security mandate suppoted by vast local majority. In hoc signo vinces. In this sleeper race, Grijalva may be left in the dust in final outcome. RSM you are right on the money on the assertion about pulchritude of conservative women?.

  • Pitchforkmamma

    The American Revolution started in Massachsuetts – we are poised to do it again.

    We have the Magnificent Seven US Congresisonal candidates that are not receiving media coverage yet:
    Gunn – Wesley – Lamb – Hudak – Harrison – Dembrowski – Golnik

    Let’s take Bill Gunn- one of the original Tea Party organizers in Western Mass – running against John Olver, a 19 year incumbent who praises Nanacy Pelosi and believes more spending is the answer.
    A recently leaked Democrat poll puts him within the margin of error!
    http://www.billgunnforcongress.com

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  • Pingback: House Seat Of Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ) Now In Play » Pirate's Cove

  • Pingback: Republican Pulls Ahead in New AZ-7 Poll: Ruth McClung 39%, Raul Grijalva 37% : The Other McCain

  • Pingback: Rocket scientist dead even with opponent in deep blue district « Wintery Knight

  • Homer

    …that’s a ‘dry’ heat. Dry.

  • Pingback: Sarah Palin endorses Ruth McClung, nationwide support pours in « The Cholla Jumps

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  • T PAR T

    Congressional Gunn Fight – Massachusetts Supporters Rally for Final Push

    The Amnerican revolution started here in Massachusetts and we are poised to do it again.
    Please consider support of BILL GUNN in the 1st district. we want to raise funds to get his message out with radio and Tv ads.

    THANK YOU
    http://www.billgunnforcongress.com

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