The Other McCain

"One should either write ruthlessly what one believes to be the truth, or else shut up." — Arthur Koestler

Final Warning: Polls Are Not Elections

Posted on | November 2, 2010 | 25 Comments

PANAMA CITY, Fla. — We now have the final Cook Political Report forecast (“The midterm maelstrom pulling House Democrats under shows no signs of abating”) predicting a pickup of 50-60 House seats for Republicans. That would be a truly historic result, but it’s actually a note of sober caution compared to Jay Cost’s “Hulk smash” forecast:

A [Gallup final poll predicting GOP] victory of 15 points suggests Republican gains well in excess of my previous estimate of 61 seats. The Abramowitz model suggests a pickup of about 76 seats . . .

With all due respect to Jay Cost: Fuck you and the Abramowitz model you rode in on.

Polls don’t win elections, and regression analysis sure as hell doesn’t win elections. Politics is not a science, and trying to reduce elections to trends, polls and mathematical formulae is one of those situations where when the only tool you’ve got is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.

If you’re a thousand miles away from a district and don’t actually know anything about what the candidates and their campaigns are doing, it is tempting to look at poll numbers, examine past voting trends, and start making assumptions about what the result will be. But when we yield to that temptation, we ignore the Hayekian insight: Information is diffused throughout society in such a way that no one — not even the best-informed “expert” — can know everything.

So Jay Cost doesn’t know everything, Charlie Cook doesn’t know everything and Michael Barone doesn’t know everything, either. Yet their status as political experts requires them to make predictions and we mere mortals . . . well, we don’t know nothing about winning no elections.

Anyway . . .  Allahpundit is optimistic, which is so abnormal it should worry us all. Jim Geraghty sees a net gain of 70 seats for the GOP (76 pickups minus six losses, including Ben Quayle going down in AZ-3). Nate Silver errs on the side of caution:

Our forecasting model, which is based on a consensus of indicators including generic ballot polling, polling of local districts, expert forecasts, and fund-raising data, now predicts an average Republican gain of 54 seats . . .
Of the projected Republican gains, many are tenuous. If we allocate all 435 seats to the leader projected by our model — no matter how slim the margin — Republicans would net a gain of 59 seats. In 15 of these 59 seats, however, the Republican is projected to win by fewer than 2 points. It is likely that Republicans will lose at least some of these — which is why the model forecasts an average gain of 54-55 seats, rather than 59, when looking at the seats on a probabilistic basis. If they lost all of them, however, their gains would be merely 44 seats, which would put the Democrats within striking distance of retaining the House.

See what I mean? Because there has been little polling in many House races, Silver is forced to use such inputs as fund-raising totals and “expert forecasts” — which is to say, he’s relying on second-hand data. And as if Republicans need a reason to be scared to death, Silver notes a very realistic possibility: Despite everything, Democrat manage to hold on t0 the majority.

To quote one expert: Don’t get cocky!

While I’m optimistic that Republicans will take the House majority, I’m trying to temper GOP overconfidence in my latest American Spectator column:

Parked beside the Steve Southerland campaign headquarters on Baldwin Road is a big RV with an orange sign on the side designating it the “I’ve Had Enough Express.” And indeed, if polls can be trusted, voters in Florida’s 2nd District have finally had enough seven-term Democrat Rep. Allen Boyd.
“We’re feeling very good about how things are going,” said Southerland campaign communications director Matt McCullough, as he sat in an office inside the yellow brick house that was once the home of the GOP candidate’s grandfather. Polls showing Southerland with a double-digit lead over Boyd, but the campaign is “not taking anything for granted,” McCullough said. “We’re still out there working as hard as we did from Day One.”
Despite such necessary cautions against overconfidence, Republicans here clearly expect to be celebrating a Southerland victory Tuesday night at the Boardwalk Beach Resort. If they want to learn whether their party wins a majority in the House of Representatives, however, they’d better be prepared to stay up past midnight. . . .

Please read the whole thing. I don’t know everything, but what I know, I know. And I know I’m going to take a nap today, because I expect this thing to go to the wee hours of the morning.

I’m leaving for Miami in about an hour. Please hit the tip jar.

Update (Smitty): Welcome InstaPundit readers! Allow me to direct your attention to a post supporting my local candidate.

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Category: Election, Fear & Loathing on the Way to Florida, Florida, Polls

Comments

  • Joe

    “All politics is local.” Tip O’Neill

    The fat Mass-Irishman was wrong on a lot of things, but he was right on that.

    I hear you. The predictions of “superwaves” and Tea-namis is a bit much. The country is roughly divided on where to go and the battle is over the moderates in the center. The tide is shifting to the Republicans because some are dissolutioned with the Democrats and Obama.

    I am watching Intrade today. Not that it is science, but it is more informative than the pundits on TV. Enjoy the Rubio party. Bring plenty of pudding. Say hi to Allen West on the way.

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  • http://norunnyeggs.com steveegg

    Echoing what Joe says. We need to run through the tape, and that isn’t just when we vote, and not even when everybody we know who will vote with us votes, but when the polls close.

  • Anonymous

    Vote.

    Call your friends. Make sure they vote.

    Call your neighbors. Make sure they vote.

    Have your friends and neighbors call THEIR friends and neighbors and make sure they vote, too.

    “Be the Wave.”

  • Joe

    Composition of U.S. Senate R vs. D? (counting Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats) 49 R and 51 D

    Composition of U.S. House R vs. D? 246 R and 188 D.

    I am throwing this out there for fun.

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  • Joe

    Your job:

    1) cancel out their votes with your own
    2) leave small shiny objects outside in the street to distract them should they manage to find their way to a polling place tomorrow
    3) stop them outside the voting booth, tell them you just voted for Obama, then demand they give you $50 — $45 for “social justice” and $5 for a Wendy’s double with cheese, fries, and a medium Frosty, which is your birthright
    4) pray that once this election is over, they become so discouraged with politics that they go back to things they are more suited for — like Oprah book clubs, or beer pong.

    (thanks to Pablo)

  • Anonymous

    VOTE AS IF YOUR LIFE DEPENDED ON IT…BECAUSE IT DOES – IT’S YOUR DUTY DAMMIT!

    Don’t Vote If You Haven’t Taken The Time To Research The Candidates or Ballot Questions – That’s Your Duty As Well.

  • Anonymous

    So I guess this would be a bad time to share my prediction of a 67 seat GOP gain in the House…

    http://www.battleswarmblog.com/?p=3017

  • Anonymous

    I guess I assumed that TOM’C readers would vote correctly, and advise their friends, neighbors, families, pets, and alternate personalities to vote likewise . . . after all, whose research could possibly be better than Stacy and Smitty?

  • Joe

    I am predicting 68 but I recognize that could swing as much as twenty seats either way. Given incumbnants have the advantage, that would tend to dampen the victory for the GOP, but we will see.

    Keep fighting.

    If Allen West wins, I will really dig that for the House.

  • Jason

    Was it really necessary to tell Jay Cost “Fuck you”? Nothing he said warranted such a classless and hostile comment.

  • John

    You do realize that the media is trying to overproject Republican gains so that when they don’t materialize, they can claim the GOP failed and that the country obviously still loves the Obama agenda, yes?

  • The Snarkinator

    Go out and vote heavy. We have to beat the margin of fraud.

    and @ Joe point #3: ask for $75, because it always costs more and the budget numbers don’t have to add up.

  • http://waxingerratic.wordpress.com/ ECM

    I’ve had to explain this to countless Eeyores already, but: PEOPLE ON OUR SIDE *WANT* TO VOTE.

    This election is like Xmas morning for conservatives and independents (and it’s basically a scene from the Hangover for liberals), and people will go out to vote because it’s like giving yourself an early Christmas/birthday present.

  • http://theothermccain.com smitty

    Won’t know until the dust settles. What if they’ve used bogus turnout models to dampen conservative turnout? Which is another way of making Stacy’s point: up the models, go do what citizens do and vote!

  • Joe

    ECM is right. The chance of conservatives not voting because the turn out for the GOP is big is pretty thin.

    But I agree, for the MSM, it is practically predicting a 150 Senate seat gain for the GOP and a 750 seat gain in the House so it can 1) make Democrats/Progressives wet themselves on the way to the polls and 2) they can say I told you so afterward you only gained “x” number of seats, not the massive number we predicted, which means we really won.

    Whatever. We know that already.

    And Jason, yes Stacy is occasionally crass. But he is also honest and we love him for it.

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  • http://ak4mc.us/cms/ McGehee

    Hey, if we only gain 149 seats in the Senate and 725 in the House, I’ll be disappointed but I’ll just have to deal with it.

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